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WBB: Oregon 87 Stanford 55 - 81alum - 01-14-2020

Preview:

This is one of the marquee games in the Pac 12 this year.  Oregon has had a shock since it beat Team USA—losing to Louisville, then to ASU, and then narrowly getting past Arizona who cut it to a single possession with 38 seconds left.  Working in our favor is that our players know that Oregon is not superhuman but can be beaten by other Pac 12 teams.  Working against us--any sense of complacency or entitlement is long gone from the  Oregon players, and they will be highly motivated to avenge their Pac 12 tournament loss to us, cheered on in their own sold-out 12,000 seat arena.

Oregon is now 13-2, ranked 6th in the latest poll, ranked 5th by the computers.  The only ranked team they have beaten was Syracuse, who we also beat, and who has turned out to be not very good this year.  But there was that exhibition in which they beat team USA! 

Oregon plays what our coaches call a funky zone, and thus our Princeton won’t be much on display.  We need to make three point shots from the baseline, or mid range jumpers from the elbow, or need to be able to generate fouls on drives—to be able to beat this zone.  There will be a LOT of passing around the perimeter to get the zone to move back and forth until it opens up a hole for a shooter.  One thing is for sure—we won’t beat them the same way we did in the tournament, in which Carrington scored 22, Smith 20, and everyone else 22.  The points will have to come from other people.

If we win there is one way it will resemble the tournament game—it will be low scoring.  Can our defense be better than their offense?  In that game we barely slowed down Ionescu who finished with 27 points.  Hebard had 13, Boley 10, and Sabally 5.  Unfortunately, this year they have Minyon Moore to add to that all-star cast, grad transferring in from USC.  And we lack Alanna Smith’s defense.  I predict that Fingal will be on Hebard, Jones on Sabally, Wilson/Lacey/Lexie on Ionescu, and Williams on Moore.  Who gets Erin Boley?  I am not sure—I think she was Carrington’s assignment last year, but can’t quite remember. 

Somehow we need to get Jump into the game to kill the zone—but who will she defend?  Prechtel could really be used on offense, but can she defend Hebard?  How about Belibi?  Prechtel seems like she would be better against the zone than Belibi.  But is there a way to cut down on Heberd's 69% shooting without leaving someone else wide open?

We will find out soon enough.

Overview:

We were competitive and showed the ability to fight back from Oregon surges--up until midway through the 3rd quarter.  But then our offense went cold and Ionescu got hot, and Oregon stretched their lead out to a 32 point thrashing.

Flow of the game:

We led through most of the first quarter on the basis of a good defense that held Oregon to 13.  We were unable to contain the Oregon offense the rest of the way, giving up 23 to our 13 in the second to allow Oregon a 36-30 halftime lead.  We started the 3rd quarter very well on a 7-0 run, but then Oregon roared back with 29 points in the last 7 minutes of the quarter, keyed by Ionescu.  The fourth quarter was a painful exercise in waiting to get out of town.  Ionescu broke her single game scoring record with 37 points, and she broke the Oregon all-time scoring record in this game too.  A whole lot of satisfaction for the Oregon fans tonight, and precious little for Stanford.

Performances:

Tara obviously did not trust her freshmen very much in this game in hostile territory.  She started Lacey for the first time in a long while, and the two Hulls and Williams were all way over 30 minutes.  Jones had 29, Fingall just 21 even though she looked very effective.  It was strange that Anna Wilson, who was a major reason Ionescu was somewhat slowed down in our tournament victory, got only 7 minutes.  Belibi had 11 and Prechtel 15--but outside the 5 position we played essentially 4 players for all the meaningful minutes of the game.

As a team, we shot 44% which is not too bad, but Oregon shot a scorching 49%, so our defense can be said to have been...ineffective.  We were also badly outrebounded.  Oregon had 10 O-boards and we had 4.  Turnovers also badly hurt us.  We had 18 to their 7.  Many of those turnovers were on inside passes into the paint that Oregon was ready for.  A net -11 in turnovers and -6 in Oboards is going to sink any team, especially when the other team is shooting nearly 50%.  In short, it was a debacle.

Individually, Lacy Hull was outstanding, going 4/5 shooting and leading the team with 4 assists.  Tara seems to have been right to start her. 

Fingall seemed to me to have done well, especially in the first half, and Prectel did fairly well in the second half--they both shot 50%.  Neither one could defend Hebert 1 on 1, but who can? 

Williams showed flashes of brilliance and was 3/6 from three point range, but she never caught fire in the way we needed her too, and she had 2 assists to 4 turnovers--a couple of them bad passes into the paint. 

Jones was too quiet, except in the 2nd quarter when she drove down the center of the paint three times to score.  But she did not duplicate that performance in the other three quarters, which we badly needed. 

Conclusion:

No one game is the season.  We have a big game against Oregon State on Sunday and many more after that.  But I think it is clear that as wonderful as our freshmen are, we have not yet found a way to replace Smith and Carrington.  Tara worked a miracle by getting her team to come back from a 40 point loss last year to defeat Oregon in the Pac 12 championship, and it will take another such miracle to defeat Oregon at Maples.

In the meantime, our team looks like a talented but inexperienced team that is going to lose some more games this season as it learns and improves.  A win at OSU would go a long way to getting that stretch off to a good start.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - qwerty49 - 01-14-2020

Thanks for the thoughtful preview, 81.  

It does seems like our D will be the key.  Boley seems to me a catch-and-shoot type who is not that quick.  I think Jump could stay with her if she's careful not to run into screens.

It will be interesting to see if Belibi can defend Sabally.

The double-edged sword is that our best defensive matchups may not be our best offensive ones.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - BobK - 01-14-2020

Thanks 81. Great analysis

Boley didn’t play a lot last game. I was watching but not sure why. She is a catch and shoot but a deadly shooter

Shelly is another great shooter.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - mbdude - 01-14-2020

(01-14-2020, 01:14 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  Thanks for the thoughtful preview, 81.  

It does seems like our D will be the key.  Boley seems to me a catch-and-shoot type who is not that quick.  I think Jump could stay with her if she's careful not to run into screens.

It will be interesting to see if Belibi can defend Sabally.

The double-edged sword is that our best defensive matchups may not be our best offensive ones.

Jump on Boley would be fine - they could discuss 3 pt shooting. I'm more worried about Williams on Moore  who had  good games against us last year


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - BosCard - 01-14-2020

(01-14-2020, 01:43 PM)mbdude Wrote:  
(01-14-2020, 01:14 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  Thanks for the thoughtful preview, 81.  

It does seems like our D will be the key.  Boley seems to me a catch-and-shoot type who is not that quick.  I think Jump could stay with her if she's careful not to run into screens.

It will be interesting to see if Belibi can defend Sabally.

The double-edged sword is that our best defensive matchups may not be our best offensive ones.

Jump on Boley would be fine - they could discuss 3 pt shooting. I'm more worried about Williams on Moore  who had  good games against us last year

Jump could defend Chavez or Shelley as well.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - bbm233 - 01-14-2020

Interested to hear from those who follow WBB more closely, but I wouldn't expect the staff to make Jump a featured part of the game plan. Would Tara make a substantial change to her rotation, especially considering we have some pretty good 3-point shooters, who can also defend, amongst our veterans, don't we? So wouldn't we expect Lexie and Kiana and Lacie to be Plan A for making those corner 3s? It makes a lot more sense to me that if we are going to see a top of the rotation change, it would be Lacie taking minutes from Fran.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - CompSci87 - 01-14-2020

I don't think anyone is suggesting a big change such as having Jump start. Just that she'll get minutes, as has already happened regularly this year when we've needed a 3-point shooter to punish zone defenses.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - martyup - 01-15-2020

(01-14-2020, 05:56 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  I don't think anyone is suggesting a big change such as having Jump start. Just that she'll get minutes, as has already happened regularly this year when we've needed a 3-point shooter to punish zone defenses.

Right.  If our offense has a problem getting going, she could come in to give us a Jump start.  ;>)


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - Spiny_Norman - 01-15-2020

The Stanford Daily talked to the 4 seniors about their time at Stanford and about leadership. Mikaela Brewer's story is particularly noteworthy as she talks about things that we fans don't see - https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/01/15/the-final-four-womens-basketball-seniors-reflect-on-their-final-year/


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - TheFarm07 - 01-16-2020

Interesting quote from Ionescu about our team:

"They're just so smart," senior guard Sabrina Ionescu explains. "And it's not even a joke or a hit at the fact that they go to Stanford. They're really smart. They know the scout religiously, they know every players strengths, every players weakness. We'll call out a play and they already know exactly what play we're gonna run."

https://www.kezi.com/content/news/Oregon-womens-basketball-prepares-for-tough-Stanford-test-567028371.html


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - martyup - 01-16-2020

Sure would be sweet to see Carrington suited up tonight.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - 81alum - 01-16-2020

(01-15-2020, 11:50 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  The Stanford Daily talked to the 4 seniors about their time at Stanford and about leadership. Mikaela Brewer's story is particularly noteworthy as she talks about things that we fans don't see - https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/01/15/the-final-four-womens-basketball-seniors-reflect-on-their-final-year/
That is a nice article.  Brewer went public with her mental health issues to raise awareness a couple of years ago.  Yes, it is indeed a side of life that fans don't get to see very much.  Mental health issues on college campuses in general--not only for athletes--deserve a lot more attention than they used to get.  When a kid leaves the support network of family, lives away from home for the first time, and encounters high levels of stress and insecurity in a highly competitive environment--bad things can happen, and conditions that were under control can spin out of control.  Kudos to Brewer for raising awareness, and kudos to her teammates for being there for her when she needed it most.

(01-16-2020, 05:41 AM)martyup Wrote:  Sure would be sweet to see Carrington suited up tonight.
We would all love to see this, but I would be shocked if we did.  The somewhat rosy outlook we heard at a chalktalk a few sessions ago was not reflected at subsequent talks.  And like Lexie last year, I think we are at the point now where even if she comes back it is likely she won't be back to mid-season form right away. 

I'm actually wondering (no basis for this but speculation) if Carrington might start to think about a redshirt--if Wilson's appeal is denied there will be a scholarship available next year.  And wouldn't Carrington be eligible?


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - 81alum - 01-16-2020

Pac 12 Network is just finishing up a rerun of last year's Oregon/Stanford champtionship.  Thank goodness they did not show our 40 point debacle from earlier.

I am reminded of just how important Smith and Carrington were to that win.  Coffee and Dodson made significant contributions too.  Tonight we are a vastly different team, and Oregon is not a vastly different team.  I hope we acquit ourselves well.

Interesting that Tara started both Hulls, probably for a little more experience in very hostile territory.  So far we are doing OK.  Hopefully we can sustain this level of play.  10-8 halfway through the 1st.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - BostonCard - 01-16-2020

We finished the first quarter up 17-13.  Ionescu was 2/8 (1/5 from 3).  I don't think we can count on her poor shooting continuing all game.

BC


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - 81alum - 01-16-2020

So far it is the kind of game we want--defensive.  Up 17-13 after 1 quarter.  I don't think we have seen Anna Wilson yet.  Haley Jones has not taken a shot.  We are 3/6 from three point range, which is helping.  Nadia Fingall is doing well.  Ionescu is 2/8


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - martyup - 01-16-2020

Hopefully we can wear them out with our depth.  We are trading punches and we look just as strong.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - BostonCard - 01-16-2020

Ionescu is warming up from three, unfortunately, and Oregon has taken the lead.

BC

Not a good quarter, as Oregon outscored us 23-13.  The halftime score is 36-30.  As I feared, Ionescu was not going to be held down for long. She has 15 points on 5/13 shooting (3/7 from 3).  In contrast, our three point shooting has cooled down.

BC


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - 81alum - 01-16-2020

Our shooting went cold, and Ionescu heated up.  The second quarter was Oregon 23-13 leading to a 36-30 halftime lead for Oregon.  After going 3/6 from three point range in the first quarter, we went 1/5 in the second quarter.

Hebard can't be stopped without a double, and we were able to double her when Minyon Moore was in the game since her three point shooting was limited and her defender would sag off to double Heberd.  When Oregon replaced Moore with a sharpshooter, we could no longer double Heberd and she went 4/5 as per usual for her.

I get the feeling that the beginning of the 3rd quarter is going to be crucial for us.  If we come out and regain the lead, then the game could be close the rest of the way.  But if we come out and turn it over, miss bad shots etc. and let Oregon build a double digit lead, it will be hard to come back in this environment. 

Let's get off to a great second half start!  Lexie is 3/3 so perhaps she should take the first shot.

Well, I got my wish and we scored the first 7 points in the second half to retake the lead.  But then we gave up a 5-14 run and are down 50-42 halfway through the 3rd quarter.  Another gut check moment.  Our defense had better step up, and fast.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - Farm93 - 01-16-2020

I understand how other teams beat Oregon essentially by playing better than Oregon anticipated.   However, I think when properly motivated Oregon will be very hard to beat, especially at home.

They appear motivated to play well against Stanford, and that ugly floor is a sure sign that this is in Eugene.


RE: WBB: Stanford @ Oregon Thursday 6pm - 81alum - 01-16-2020

Well, this one got away from us after we had that great start.  Ionescu just went off for 14 in the quarter.  A defense that gives up 29 points in a single quarter is not going to cut it. 

Hopefully this will be a good learning experience and we will play better at Maples.  I've also noticed that Tara has done very little substituting.  Our starting five must be getting pretty tired.  Oregon looks deeper than we do so far.