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Women's BB, rest of season - WBB fan - 02-02-2020

Now the final 8 games are before Stanford and the rest of the Pac 12, it's very unbalanced in terms of how tough the last schedules are in the Pac 12. Looking at the schedules of the top six teams in the Pac 12, the Stanford women appear to face the greatest challenge. 5 of their remaiing 8 games are against teams currently in the top six; Oregon and OSU face 4 of the top six, while UCLA and the Arizonas face 3. If you add up the current ranking of the teams in the 8 games to come, the lowest possible sum -- meaning toughest schedule -- for all 8 games is 43. Stanford's upcoming total is 44. Oregon and OSU face a total ranking for the 8 teams faced of 50, and UCLA, Arizona, and ASU face teams with a current Pac 12 rank of 58.

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 81alum - 02-02-2020

Yes, it is a steep hill to climb.  Worse, we end with an away trip to the two Arizona schools--a road trip that is shaping up to be among the toughest in the nation.

But we have a big weekend against the SoCal schools at home next weekend, with UCLA at the rotten 8pm time on Friday.  Since we only play them once, we really need to sweep them.  Going to altitude and hosting the Oregon schools won't be easy, either.  And with schools like USC and Colorado on the horizon, I worry about more injuries.

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - M T - 02-03-2020

(02-02-2020, 08:40 PM)JoanBoothe Wrote:  Looking at the schedules of the top six teams in the Pac 12, the Stanford women appear to face the greatest challenge. 5 of their remaiing 8 games are against teams currently in the top six

I took a different perspective as I was thinking of NCAA seeding, and looked at the top 10 (now 11) teams in the country, which translates to the top 4 in the conference.  From that point of view, Stanford didn't have the toughest schedule.  Going into this now-concluded weekend, Arizona & ASU had 4 games (of the last 10) against those 4.  Stanford only had 3 (of last 8).  Oregon also has 3 (of the last 9, including UConn). UCLA has 3.  OSU has 2.

Of those 4 top-11 teams (currently 75-10 combined, 88.2%), they will get (at least) a combined 5 losses before the PAC-12 tourney.  Combined they will be approximately 102-15 (87.2%).

I should note that the #11 RPI team OSU would not get a first round bye if the PAC-12 tournament were held today.  No team is currently assured of getting a bye.  Currently OSU with 4 losses is 5th place.  Stanford (currently T-1 at 9-1) could win all its games except those against the top-11, and it would wind up with 4 losses.

In a sense, Stanford has the easiest of those gauntlets, because those 3 games are at home.  No one else has all these games at home.
Yes, Arizona & ASU (& even lowly Colorado) are not considered in this set, even though they are good teams & may be difficult.

Then, comes the tournament.  By definition, one team will survive without a loss. But also by definition, (at least) 3 PAC-12 top-11 teams will add a loss to their record.  Now that 75-10 record has become 109-18 (85.8%) or worse.  It could be that each of the 4 top-11 teams wind up with two losses before the NCAA tourney, and that's only counting losses amongst themselves.  As UCLA found out (and Stanford almost found out a week ago), there may be other losses just waiting to happen.

As of Sunday night, realtimerpi.com has this for RPI. It will be interesting to see how it changes after Monday's Oregon@UConn game.

RankSchoolW-LRPISOSRankSOSConf.Conf. W-L
1Oregon19-20.689190.6142Pac129-1
2South Carolina21-10.6866140.5975Sec9-0
3Louisville21-10.6767330.5786Acc10-0
4Stanford19-20.6711230.5850Pac129-1
5UCLA19-20.6678320.5786Pac128-2
6Connecticut19-10.6670340.5781Aac9-0
7Baylor19-10.6670390.5754Big128-0
8Gonzaga22-10.6667480.5653Wcc11-0
9Maryland17-40.6643100.6110Big108-2
10Missouri St.17-30.6608290.5803Mvc7-1
11Oregon St.18-40.659080.6148Pac126-4
27Arizona18-30.6159720.5429Pac127-3
32Arizona St.16-60.6111300.5787Pac126-4


RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 81alum - 02-03-2020

(02-03-2020, 01:40 AM)M T Wrote:  As of Sunday night, realtimerpi.com has this for RPI. It will be interesting to see how it changes after Monday's Oregon@UConn game.
And after Friday's Stanford UCLA game!

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - martyup - 02-03-2020

Oregon is up 13 on UCONN at the half.  ˙ ͜ʟ˙

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 2006alum - 02-03-2020

In a Sun Tzu Art of War special, the enemy of my enemy is my friend: Ducks defeat Huskies, delivering their worst loss since 2007 and their largest home loss EVER. If we can't beat them, I'd rather see no one else beat them either!

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 81alum - 02-03-2020

(02-03-2020, 05:47 PM)martyup Wrote:  Oregon is up 13 on UCONN at the half.  ˙ ͜ʟ˙
Final Oregon 74 UConn 56.

It is good to see validation for the Pac 12.  And this at Storrs!  Has UConn been beated that badly at home in a while?  I'm guessing it has been years.

All five Oregon starters with double digits.  Ionescu "only" had 10 points to go with her 9 rebounds and 9 assists. 

Geno loses one game from the chance to overtaking Tara :)

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - Viking_Guy - 02-03-2020

Oregon ends up beating UConn 74-56, largest ever loss for the Huskies at Gampel Pavilion. They also play some home games at the XL Center in downtown Hartford, where they lost to Baylor by 16 earlier this season.

And what is the ESPN post game about?  How can UConn get back to being a #1 seed?  And funny how no one ever used the words "blown out" or never really competitive (the closest the game got after the first quarter was 6 points.  I don't think it ever got below double digits after halftime, and if it did, it was only to 8 or 9.)  Crystal Dangerfield played well, but the rest of the Huskies didn't ever get going against a Ducks 3-2 zone with Sabally at the top.

Right now, the only indication that the game happened on ESPN's home page is a photo of Geno with a Kobe in memoriam shirt on, and a small score ticker.  With no change in the headline to reflect the outcome.  Sheesh.

More to the point, UConn has one game left this season against a better than good team - at South Carolina next Monday.  If they don't win that, they will have exactly one win against team in the RPI top-20, for as bad as the RPI is - at #20 Depaul.  Hell, they'll have only played 4 games against the top-20 all season long, in spite of their extolled out-of-conference scheduling. 

At this point, I think they should be worried about dropping to a #3 seed, not climbing to a #1.  Right now, they're #8 in the RPI themselves, which makes the NCAA's "pre-release" seeding of them as the #5 overall a pretty large joke.  And you can bet they'll be sent to Fort Wayne, Indiana, even if they are a lower ranked 3 seed, instead of to one of the three dominant hosts sites (Portland for Oregon, Dallas for Baylor, and Greenville for South Carolina,)

The other problem with that pre-release?  Stanford getting shipped off to Dallas lined up against Baylor, when by the NCAAs seeding they should be in Fort Wayne (if travel isn't an issue) or Portland (if it is.)

VG

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 81alum - 02-03-2020

Yes, well, the team from ESPN has a few advantages. 

I only regret that Oregon did not beat them by as much as they beat us.  I wonder if UConn played in Eugene if they would have been buried under an even greater avalanche.

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - crackpot - 02-03-2020

While I was disappointed that the Ducks didn't beat 'em by 40, given that this the third road game in five days, I can forgive them for being a little tired in the fourth quarter.

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - mbdude - 02-03-2020

At least Michelle Voepel's story on ESPn had a slightly different slant
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28628453/oregon-makes-statement-handing-uconn-worst-loss-ever-gampel

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - Viking_Guy - 02-04-2020

And the coaches really punish ESPNUConn... by moving them down one place, to #6.  

Stanford up to #5.

Just for comparison, when Stanford lost at Eugene (albeit being beaten more thoroughly, though on the road), and followed it up with a win at Corvallis (a better win than any UConn has this season), they dropped 3 spots, from #3 to #6.

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings

VG

RE: Women's BB, rest of season - 81alum - 02-04-2020

(02-04-2020, 06:33 PM)Viking_Guy Wrote:  And the coaches really punish ESPNUConn... by moving them down one place, to #6.  

Stanford up to #5.

Just for comparison, when Stanford lost at Eugene (albeit being beaten more thoroughly, though on the road), and followed it up with a win at Corvallis (a better win than any UConn has this season), they dropped 3 spots, from #3 to #6.

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings

VG
And also....Oregon just inflicted the worst loss on UConn at home in the Geno era and did not move up even a single notch.  What is that--an acknowledgement that UConn is just not very good and so Oregon doesn't deserve any credit for beating them on their home floor?
I rather like the RPI ratings just now:

1 Oregon
2 S Carolina
3 Louisville
4 Stanford
5 Gonzaga
6 UCLA
7 Baylor
8 Maryland
9 Missouri State
10 UConn
11 Oregon State
14 Mississippi State

You have to love a list that ranks Missouri State over UConn.  Oh yah.

It does show how important Friday night's game is to us.