WBB: Top 16! - Printable Version

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WBB: Top 16! - Lorcan - 02-03-2020






In the midst of Oregon's thrashing of UConn in Hartford, we caught a glimpse into the committee's thinking on how they are constructing the bracket. We can assume that this might have changed slightly given tonight's result. There are a few surprises, such as Maryland managing to sneak all the way up to #8 on the strength of their recent wins combined with the rise of Iowa and Northwestern who they had lost to previously. Some people clearly might be outraged at Arizona getting #13, especially given that their OOC SOS was #337 in the nation, but they have beaten Texas, UCLA, and Arizona State. I'm mildly surprised that Arizona State didn't sneak in on the strength of their wins over Oregon and Oregon State. If those don't garner them a seed now, I'm not sure what else they will be able to do to garner a seed later. 

From a regional perspective, there are a couple of surprises to me. I was surprised that they moved Gonzaga out of Portland as regionally, that makes sense to keep them there but a few factors are likely at play. Oregon will already draw well enough to Portland, and in the interest of balancing the regions, you can't exactly send the weakest #2, and the weakest #3 out to Portland. So, the solution is to create a scary match-up for Stanford in Dallas by forcing them to run a gauntlet of Gonzaga and Baylor back to back if the seeds hold. The Pac-12 and the SEC both have 11 remaining games between ranked teams, while the Big 10 and the ACC have just 2 each. So, I would expect that the seeds for those regions to be more volatile, unless Maryland or DePaul who just dropped a game at home to Creighton find new ways to stumble. 

Much of this is pure speculation at this point, but it's fun to see what the committee is thinking as they attempt to split up 5 Pac-12 Teams.

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RE: WBB: Top 16! - 81alum - 02-03-2020

(02-03-2020, 07:31 PM)Lorcan Wrote:  




In the midst of Oregon's thrashing of UConn in Hartford, we caught a glimpse into the committee's thinking on how they are constructing the bracket. We can assume that this might have changed slightly given tonight's result. There are a few surprises, such as Maryland managing to sneak all the way up to #8 on the strength of their recent wins combined with the rise of Iowa and Northwestern who they had lost to previously. Some people clearly might be outraged at Arizona getting #13, especially given that their OOC SOS was #337 in the nation, but they have beaten Texas, UCLA, and Arizona State. I'm mildly surprised that Arizona State didn't sneak in on the strength of their wins over Oregon and Oregon State. If those don't garner them a seed now, I'm not sure what else they will be able to do to garner a seed later. 

From a regional perspective, there are a couple of surprises to me. I was surprised that they moved Gonzaga out of Portland as regionally, that makes sense to keep them there but a few factors are likely at play. Oregon will already draw well enough to Portland, and in the interest of balancing the regions, you can't exactly send the weakest #2, and the weakest #3 out to Portland. So, the solution is to create a scary match-up for Stanford in Dallas by forcing them to run a gauntlet of Gonzaga and Baylor back to back if the seeds hold. The Pac-12 and the SEC both have 11 remaining games between ranked teams, while the Big 10 and the ACC have just 2 each. So, I would expect that the seeds for those regions to be more volatile, unless Maryland or DePaul who just dropped a game at home to Creighton find new ways to stumble. 

Much of this is pure speculation at this point, but it's fun to see what the committee is thinking as they attempt to split up 5 Pac-12 Teams.

We can help ourselves a whole lot by winning on Friday.  Beating UCLA is well within reach--as is losing to them--but that game and our home game with Oregon State look like our most manageable opportunities to beat highly ranked teams prior to the Pac 12 tourney.

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RE: WBB: Top 16! - M T - 02-04-2020

I will note that the 5 PAC-12 teams were spread over the 4 regionals.  That's good.  You can imagine what I hope to see for the final 4.

Given the East Coast bias, I'm not surprised that not only did they only rank Stanford #6, they seeded Stanford even lower at #7.

BUT, this is almost a meaningless poll.  There are SO many #10 matches coming up in the PAC-12 that I will say that 2 and maybe 3 of the 5 PAC-12 teams in the current so-called "Top 16" will be out of it by the time the tourney happens.   That means that the PAC-12 teams that aren't the top 3 or so after all the bloodletting will be facing tougher teams in the tourney.  It will probably also let the committee find a way to have South Carolina face at worst the 5th best in the PAC-12.

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