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Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-05-2020

By beating USF and Washington State a couple weeks ago, Stanford punched its ticket to the 2020 Oracle ITA Division I National Women's Team Indoor Championship, or Indoor Nationals for short. The 16-team, single-elimination tournament starts this Friday, February 7th in Chicago. All teams are guaranteed three matches on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with the two teams making the finals getting a fourth match on Monday, February 10th. 

Who's in the field? 

Below is the bracket, with the seeded teams listed first by seed and the unseeded team listed second with most recent ranking before their names. The biggest shock is #5 Duke not being seeded while #12 Ohio State is, but there's a simple explanation for that--Duke just dropped a 4-2 match to Ohio State in Columbus. So, it's a reasonable seeding tweak. Texas is also seeded two lines ahead of its ranking, but it has wins already over N.C. State and Georgia Tech, better than Pepperdine's resume, so that makes sense, too. 

(1) Stanford vs. #10 Michigan
(8) Ohio State vs. #22 Georgia Tech

(5) Texas vs. #9 Florida State
(4) UCLA vs. #31 Illinois

(3) Georgia vs. #11 Virginia
(6) Pepperdine vs. #5 Duke

(7) N.C. State vs. #17 Princeton
(2) North Carolina vs. #14 Arizona State

The bracket was constructed by taking the 8 seeds and placing them in a standard configuration, and then drawing the other 8 teams at random to determine opponents, avoiding conference matchups (and other matches already on teams' schedules) in the first round. Thus, Stanford gets something of a tougher first round draw in a good Michigan team, and Pepperdine gets a brutal Duke matchup, while the worst seed (Ohio State) gets the second-worst team by ranking in the field (the worst being host Illinois), and UCLA should be able to sleepwalk through the first round. 

There were some dangerous first-round matchups looming, particularly FSU, Michigan, and UVA, but then again, the entire point of this tournament from Stanford's perspective is to play--and beat--top teams to have a resume that gets them a top 8 seed in NCAAs at the end of the year. So, why not hope for one of those teams? I was, and that's exactly what we got. UCLA doesn't get much of a benefit from beating Illinois, while beating Michigan would be a much bigger boost to Stanford. (Watch the scoreline, too. UNC beat Michigan 4-0, though 5 of the singles matches were reasonably competitive, and Michigan looked primed to take a couple points at the end.)

Thus, Stanford's path is #10 Michigan, probably #12 Ohio State (who will be top ten in the next rankings for sure following that Duke win), and then #4 UCLA/#7 Texas in the semis and #2 UNC/#3 UGA in the final. A run to the finals, even with a loss there, and a good regular season should give Stanford all it needs for that top 8 seed. But the lighter-than-usual schedule this year means the margin for error is slim. Slip up in the first round and maybe your next two matches are also against unseeded teams. Lose a couple of 4-3 matches to UCLA and Cal, and all of a sudden, you might not even be top 16 and you could be on the road in the NCAA early rounds for the first time in program history. 

At this point, there's no match I find more interesting in terms of projecting the season than the potential Stanford-UCLA semifinal. UCLA is going to hang around the top 5 all year, so getting that win (and demonstrating that we're still the top dog in the Pac-12) would almost be bigger to me than beating UNC or Georgia the following round would be. In other words, this team has a lot of questions, and I think beating UCLA would answer most of them and would mean we're absolutely good enough to be in the mix for the NCAA title again this year. Whether we beat or lose to an excellent team in the final wouldn't change that fact. 

Wait, when do we play?

Stanford plays Michigan on Friday at 3:30pm Central/1:30pm Pacific on Courts 1-6. If they win, they'll play the Ohio State/Georgia Tech winner at the same time on Saturday on courts to be determined.


How to follow along

Live scores: http://scores.tennisticker.de/usa/ita/wi2020/lp.html?lid=223
Live streaming: TBD

Tournament websites: 

https://www.wearecollegetennis.com/events/d1-womens-indoors/  
https://fightingillini.com/feature/itaindoors2020
Oh, and we got new singles rankings from the ITA today, so here they are:

Current Singles Rankings

Below is a list of the currently-ranked singles players from each of the teams at Indoor Nationals:

1. Ashley Lahey, Pepperdine
2. Anna Turati, Texas
4. Sara Daavettila, UNC
5. Abigail Forbes, UCLA
6. Michaela Gordon
7. Alexa Graham, UNC
8. Shiori Fukuda, Ohio State
9. Cameron Morra, UNC
10. Kelly Chen, Duke
14. Elysia Bolton, UCLA
16. Jada Hart, UCLA
17. Chloe Beck, Duke
18. Lea Ma, Georgia
20. Alana Smith, N.C. State
21. Natasha Subhash, UVA
23. Alle Sanford, UNC
29. Ilze Hattingh, Arizona State
30. Adriana Reami, N.C. State
34. Brianna Shvets, Princeton
35. Giulia Pairone, Michigan
36. Anastasia Iamachkine, Pepperdine
37. Jessica Failla, Pepperdine
41. Katarina Jokic, Georgia
42. Bianca Turati, Texas
43. Anna Rogers, N.C. State
49. Victoria Flores, Georgia Tech
50. Lexi Ryngler, Texas
51. Andrea Cerdan, Michigan
55. Rosie Johanson, UVA
58. Kacie Harvey, UNC
60. Kenya Jones, Georgia Tech
62. Irina Cantos Siemers, Ohio State
71. Zoe Howard, Princeton
74. Margaryta Bilokin, Duke
77. Angelica Blake
78. Amber O'Dell, UVA
83. Morgan Coppoc, Georgia
86. Nandini Das, Florida State
87. Sofia Munera, UVA
89. Meible Chi, Duke
90. Marta Gonzalez, Georgia
93. Gia Cohen, Georgia Tech
94. Alyvia Jones, Michigan
98. Daria Frayman, Princeton
99. Danielle Wolf, Ohio State
101. Makenna Jones, UNC
112. Annette Goulak, UCLA
123. Janice Shin
124. Lisa Zaar, Pepperdine
125. Fernanda Labrana, Texas

Also important to note are the following Pac-12 players not present at Indoor Nationals:

12. Haley Giavara, Cal
15. Angela Kulikov, USC
19. Mariia Kozyreva, St. Mary's (not Pac-12, I know, but someone we see a lot of)
26. Valentina Ivanov, Cal
46. Julia Rosenqvist, Cal
66. Vanessa Wong, UW
79. Michaela Bayerlova, WSU
82. Natsuho Arakawa, UW
91. Melisa Ates, WSU
108. Sydney Van Alphen, USC
110. Katarina Kopcalic, UW
119. Danielle Willson, USC
In other words, here's how we (6, 77, 123) stack up against other teams in terms of ranked players:

Pepperdine: 1, 36, 37, 124 
Texas: 2, 42, 50, 125
UNC: 4, 7, 9, 23, 58, 101 
UCLA: 5, 14, 16, 112
Ohio State: 8, 62, 99
Duke: 10, 17, 74, 89
Georgia: 18, 41, 83, 90
N.C. State: 20, 30, 43
UVA: 21, 55, 78, 87
ASU: 29
Princeton: 34, 71, 98
Michigan: 35, 51, 94
Georgia Tech: 49, 60, 93
FSU: 86

And elsewhere in the Pac-12:

Cal: 12, 26, 46
USC: 15, 108, 119
UW: 66, 82, 110
WSU: 79, 91

Like I've been saying, it looks more difficult this year to repeat as Pac-12 champs, let alone national champs. But we'll see!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-05-2020

Up first! The matchup vs. #10 Michigan (3-1)!

Anticipated Lineups:

1. #6 Gordon vs. #51 Cerdan
2. Arbuthnott vs. #26 Pairone
3. #77 Blake vs. Hammond
4. #123 Shin vs. #94 Jones
5. Choy vs. Lommer
6. Higuchi vs. Lorenzini

So far this season:

Stanford hasn't really been tested yet, of course, while Michigan has, having to beat preseason #12 UCF 4-2 in order to qualify for Indoor Nationals, and then traveling to Chapel Hill to take on UNC before losing 4-0. That match is worth analyzing, though. At #1, UNC's Graham beat Michigan's Cerdan 6-4, 7-5, in a match that could have gone either way. On Court 2, Michigan's Pairone was up 6-3, 6-5 on UNC's Morra with the match on her racquet. On Court 3, Michigan's Hammond had lost the first set 6-4 to UNC's Daavettila, but had just taken the second 7-5. On Court 5, UNC's Jones won the first 6-3, but the second was knotted at 5-5. And on Court 6, UNC's Yarlagadda won 6-2, 7-5. So, this wasn't some walkover. Michigan is legit tough, and Stanford will have their work cut out for them. 

Analysis

I like Stanford's odds to take the doubles point, which is good, because four singles wins will be hard to come by. Lommer at 5 is wild, as she was Michigan's primary #2 as a sophomore two years ago. But Pairone transferring in from Arkansas before last season and freshmen Cerdan and Hammond joining the team as freshmen this year have combined to push her down the lineup. 

I'll predict that Higuchi is first off court, running the score to 2-0 Stanford. Shin's struggles at 4 continue, and the lead is cut to 2-1. Blake wins, and it's 3-1, while Choy drops her first of the year to the experienced Lommer to get Michigan back within a point with two matches left on court. I'll take Gordon to clinch it while Arbuthnott is locked in a slow-moving three-set slugfest. 

Prediction: 4-2 Stanford

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - oldalum - 02-05-2020

(02-05-2020, 11:32 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Prediction: 4-2 Stanford
I'll take it!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-06-2020

(02-05-2020, 04:36 PM)oldalum Wrote:  
(02-05-2020, 11:32 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Prediction: 4-2 Stanford
I'll take it!

To be fair, I would not be surprised at any result from 4-0 Stanford to 4-2 Michigan. We're gonna see some three-setters here, I believe.
Oh, and it looks like there will be live streaming after all! https://web.playsight.com/facility/u-of-illinois-d1-indoor-championships/home

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

FYI, I listened to an interesting podcast yesterday from the folks at Cracked Racquets; they were doing a preview of Indoor Nationals. A few interesting takeaways: 

1. They were as surprised as I was that Stanford is ranked number one and seeded number one here over North Carolina, given the ridiculous strength at the top of North Carolina’s lineup. UNC is, in their minds, the obvious choice to win this tournament.

2. Stanford’s UTR Power 6 (the aggregate UTR of our top 6 players, meant to give a numerical measure of overall lineup strength) is currently behind not just UNC, but also Georgia, UCLA, Duke, Pepperdine, and Texas. 

3. They don’t have a good sense of our lineup. They figured Michigan would probably get a win at #6, and they didn’t even mention Emma Higuchi’s name.

4. One of the hosts highlighted the loss of Lord and Lampl and how that made Stanford more vulnerable than they’ve been in a while. (True!) Then, the other host listed off all the graduating seniors (including Yao and Rosenberg) to argue our lineup was really hollowed out. (Not true!)

5. They predicted Stanford to beat Michigan and then Ohio State but to lose to UCLA, who they then picked to lose to UNC. And honestly, that’s probably right.

6. Their general takeaway on Stanford was that while we might well be more of a co-favorite come NCAAs, we haven’t yet been tested and if there was a time to catch us, it’s now. Hard to argue with that, given the questions we have.

Oh, and it's the same guy who was the main host (and who listed off all of last year's seniors) who is doing the play-by-play on the Playsight stream. This is new this year at Indoor Nationals--having a commentator--and I think it's an awesome change. I can only hear it on this particular court feed, though: https://web.playsight.com/live/u-of-illinois-d1-indoor-championships/107
ASU lost 4-1 to UNC, but it was hardly a bad showing. Slaysman got their lone point on Court 6, but Kolarova was one game away from beating Morra in Court 3 (up 6-2, 5-2 in a shocker), and on Court 1, Hattingh lost the first in a tiebreaker but was up an early break in the second.

But doubles wasn’t close, nor were the matches on 2, 4, and 5.
7th-seeded N.C. State beat Princeton 4-0 in the other early match. Doubles was close, but the Wolfpack got three solid wins on Courts 1, 3, and 5 to get the sweep. N.C. State looked primed for a win on 6 as well, but the other two matches could have gone either way.

Up next is Georgia/UVA and Pepperdine/Duke (in what should easily be the best match of the first round).
It was the unseeded team in each match going on right now--Duke and UVA--that took the doubles point. But Duke-Pepperdine is a coin flip as it is, so that data point doesn't mean a great deal. I think it's vital for Duke, though, given Pepperdine's strong singles lineup. Pepperdine has an outstanding top 2, but they're vulnerable in the back half.
Georgia knots it up at 1 apiece with a quick win on Court 6. Georgia has won 4 other first sets and is in a tiebreaker in the last one, so they're doing what they need, but all of those matches are on serve in the second. Meanwhile, Pepperdine won first sets on 1, 2, 4, and 5, Duke took it on 3, and 6 is going to a tiebreaker. But in 3 of those matches where they lost the first set, Duke is up a break in the second, so that match should go on for a while.
A bright spot for UVA, as its #5, former Cal commit Vivian Glozman, takes the first set in a tiebreaker as the players on #3 and #4 each go up a break in the second (though the UVA player on #4 gives it right back). Of note, UVA's #1 is a freshman, Natasha Subhash. She was the top-ranked freshman in the country, and it shows. She's hanging in there, shot for shot, with UGA's Jokic, who is as good as there is in college tennis.
2-1 Georgia as they get a win on Court 4. But UVA's Johanson just won a second-set tiebreaker to force a third set, and Subhash had a tough-as-nails hold on deciding point (doubling as match point for Jokic) to get to 5-5. So, Courts 2 and 3 are into third sets there. Over at Duke-Pepperdine, the matches on Courts 1, 4, and 5 are into third sets, Duke is two points from a win on #3, and there will be a tiebreaker on #2 to see whether Pepperdine takes it or they'll play a third.
On deciding point, Shubhash hits a slice forehand that hits the net cord and dribbles over to take the break. That's nuts. She then holds relatively easily and that match goes to a third set. This has been outstanding tennis, by the way.

Duke goes up 2-0. The Blue Devils are up a set and a break on Court 6, and they're up a break in the third sets on Courts 1 and 4. Pepperdine's Failla needs to take this tiebreaker on #2 to get on the board and try and give some life to her teammates, but everything is going Duke's way right now. Pepperdine won four first sets in singles, and they're on the verge of losing this match 4-0. Failla is the only Pepperdine player who leads, and she's on serve in that second set tiebreaker. Duke leads 3-1 in the third on 1, 4-0 in the third on 4, 4-2 in the third on 5, and Duke's up 7-6, 3-1 on 6. Just a matter of time for Duke, it seems. Just need two wins, and they're up breaks in deciding sets on four courts.
2-1 Georgia with the remaining matches into third sets. Even if UVA loses this, this served notice that they're a contender. UGA is up a break on 1 and 3 while UVA is up a break on 2 with Court 5 on serve.

Really impressive from Duke as they tough out a 4-1 win that had three matches go to third sets. That's a dangerous--if variable--Duke team.
2-2 now as UVA's Johanson beats freshman Lea Ma of Georgia 6-2 in the third. But UGA answers back with a dominating third set from Jokic and it's 3-2 Georgia moments before Gonzalez takes her third set 6-4 for a 4-2 win. Exciting match, that. Funny that when you put a bunch of really good tennis teams in a tournament together, you get some good matches!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

And we’re on court! On serve on all three courts so far in doubles.
1. Arbuthnott/Blake lead 4-3 (on serve)
2. Gordon/Shin lead 4-2
3. Choy/Higuchi lead 4-3 (up a break)
1. Arbuthnott/Blake tied 5-5
2. Gordon/Shin tied 5-5
3. Choy/Higuchi won 6-4

Sigh. This thing looked done and dusted with Gordon/Shin serving up 5-3, but alas, the doubles point remains up for grabs.
1. Arbuthnott/Blake lead 6-5, so Michigan will serve to force a tiebreaker, which it needs to win.
2. Gordon/Shin tied 5-5 and serving down 15-30, as the momentum has turned in a big way in this one, from 4-1 up.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

Whoa, what a turnaround! Michigan was serving to force a tiebreaker on Court 1, and they went up 40-0 before Arbuthnott/Blake rattled off four straight to win the match and, with it, the doubles point! Seconds earlier, Gordon/Shin toughed out a hold--also on deciding point--to go up 6-5. 

But Stanford takes the doubles point behind a 7-5 win on #1 and a 6-4 win on #3. That has to sting for Michigan, who was this close to taking the doubles point, which is so so big for teams trying to pull upsets against deep singles teams like Stanford. 

1-0 Stanford heading into singles!
Our lineup is as expected, but there are some tweaks on the Michigan side:

1. #6 Gordon vs. #26 Pairone
2. Arbuthnott vs. #51 Cerdan
3. #77 Blake vs. Hammond
4. #123 Shin vs. #94 Jones
5. Choy vs. Lommer
6. Higuchi vs. Craciun (instead of Lorenzini)


That seems like a reasonable swap at the top, with Pairone as Michigan's #1 last year and Cerdan as an impressive freshman. We'll see!
Stanford 1, Michigan 0

1. Gordon trails 0-3 (down double break) 
2. Arbuthnott leads 3-1
3. Blake tied 2-2 (on serve) 
4. Shin leads 2-1 (up a break)
5. Choy trails 0-3 
6. Higuchi tied 2-2 (on serve)

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - Lorcan - 02-07-2020

I don't know what's going on with Gordon. She even lost a service game from 40-0 up to trail 5-0. 

Higuchi and Choy break back to get back on serve, so that's a slightly good sign.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

Stanford 1, Michigan 0

1. Gordon trails 0-6, 0-0 (yeesh)
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-2, 0-0
3. Blake trails 4-5 (on serve) 
4. Shin trails 3-4 (on serve)
5. Choy trails 3-4 (on serve)
6. Higuchi trails 3-4 (down a break)
Stanford 1, Michigan 0

1. Gordon trails 0-6, 1-2
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-2, 0-2
3. Blake leads 7-5, 0-0
4. Shin trails 3-6, 0-0
5. Choy trails 4-6, 0-0
6. Higuchi trails 4-5
Well, we’re gonna need to win a three-setter to pull this out, as Higuchi drops hers and Michigan wins four first sets. Likely a couple of them, as Arbuthnott starts to struggle in the second. Yikes.

Stanford 1, Michigan 0

1. Gordon trails 0-6, 1-4
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-2, 1-3
3. Blake leads 7-5, 1-1
4. Shin trails 3-6, 0-1 (down a break)
5. Choy trails 4-6, 1-1
6. Higuchi trails 4-6, 1-0

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

Stanford 1, Michigan 1

1. Gordon loses 0-6, 1-6
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-2, 4-4 (BIG time break for Emily!)
3. Blake leads 7-5, 3-3 
4. Shin trails 3-6, 1-2 (down a break)
5. Choy trails 4-6, 1-4
6. Higuchi trails 4-6, 3-1


I am nervous, folks! But we just need Emma Higuchi to do Emma Higuchi things, for Blake to get one break, and for Arbuthnott to get another break and close this one out. 
A really useful momentum shift, and all of a sudden Arbuthnott is a game away from winning her match, and so is Blake!

Choy and Shin look overmatched, but Higuchi leads 4-1 in her second, so the dream lives!
2-1 Stanford as Blake wins it 7-5, 6-3!
Big time hold for Arbuthnott, and Cerdan will serve to force a tiebreaker. Shin and Choy trying to stay alive, but it won’t be long for them. Meanwhile, Higuchi leads 5-2 in her second set!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - Lorcan - 02-07-2020

#8 Ohio State just went down to #22 Georgia Tech, 4-1. Impressive win for the Yellow Jackets. 

All hope for another Big 10 loss rests on Higuchi as Arbuthnott takes deciding point to win her second set 7-5.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

Emily. Arbuthnott.

She breaks to win her match 6-2, 7-5 and put Stanford up 3-1, soon after Higuchi won her second 6-2 to force a third.

But seconds later, Lommer beats Choy to make it 3-2, and Shin is hanging on by a thread. 

The match rests on Emma Higuchi’s shoulders, folks. They may be narrow, but they can hold a lot.

EDIT: The dual is tied up at 3-3 while Higuchi opens up the third set on her serve.
Higuchi is broken, and she is now down 2-3 in the third. Come on, Emma!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

She goes up 40-15 on Craciun’s serve and it looks like we’re gonna be back on serve. But nope. Craciun wins three straight and Higuchi is now down 2-4 in the third.
Then a hold at love and she’s down 3-4. She needs a break. Come on, Emma!
Huuuuuge break and it’s 4-4! Craciun was up 40-15, but this time it was Higuchi’s turn to rattle off three straight! 8 points away, Emma!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - oldalum - 02-07-2020

Emma holds for 5-4, and now enormous crushing unbearable pressure descends upon Craciun

And we win!!!! (whew)

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

Big time hold and she’s up 5-4! 4 points away!

One of these players has been here before. One hasn’t. Let’s hope that’s enough right now!
Three points away
Two points away!
One!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - BobK - 02-07-2020

Emma!!!!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

*EXHALES*

This is now an Emma Higuchi appreciation thread, sorry, I don’t make the rules.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - terry - 02-07-2020

That's awesome! A clutch performance!

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2020

We can talk more a different time about Gordon’s bewildering no-show performance (maybe she was injured, that’s why she missed Hawaii, and she’s still not 100%?) and that Shin continues to disappoint, but I’m just too darn pumped about the three gutty wins we got in singles. 

Blake was nails. Arbuthnott looked like the second was lost and she just kept scrapping. And EMMA FREAKING HIGUCHI. 

Whew. That almost got really bad. But it didn’t! We booked a hard-fought win over a top 10 team. We may not be as good as we were the last two years, but we’re still no pushover.

RE: Women's Tennis: ITA Indoor Nationals - ColoradoTree - 02-08-2020

First Round Results:

(2) UNC d. #14 Arizona State 4-1
(7) N.C. State d. #17 Princeton 4-0
#5 Duke d. (6) Pepperdine 4-1
(3) Georgia d. #11 Virginia 4-2
(1) Stanford d. #10 Michigan 4-3
#22 Georgia Tech d. (8) Ohio State 4-1
(4) UCLA d. #31 Illinois 4-0 
#9 Florida State d. (5) Texas 4-3

Second Round Schedule:

Main Draw:

10:00am Pacific: 

(2) UNC vs. (7) NC State
(3) Georgia vs. #5 Duke

1:30pm: 

(1) Stanford vs. #22 Georgia Tech
(4) UCLA vs. #9 Florida State

Consolation Draw: 

7:00am: ASU vs. Princeton and (6) Pepperdine vs. UVA

4:30pm: (5) Texas vs. Illinois and (8) Ohio State vs. Michigan