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Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-19-2020

This weekend, Stanford travels to Austin to play TCU (Friday at 11:00am PT) and then the host University of Texas (Saturday, 11:00am). 

New team rankings:

So, the first computerized rankings are out, and remember when I told you to expect a drop because we always drop due to a weaker early-season schedule? Well, that is true again. The preseason #1 team, #3 last week, is now #12. Here's the new top 25, along with other teams in our schedule in the top 50:

1. UNC
2. Florida State
3. Texas
4. N.C. State
5. Princeton
6. Ohio State
7. UCLA
8. Georgia
9. Virginia
10. Duke
11. Georgia Tech
12. Stanford
13. Oklahoma State
14. UCF
15. Pepperdine
16. Michigan
17. Vanderbilt
18. Baylor
19. Wake Forest
20. Washington
21. Wisconsin
22. USC
23. Old Dominion
24. Arizona State
25. Syracuse
34. Washington State
45. Cal

New individual rankings:

After a rough week, Michaela Gordon drops from 6th to... 9th. The lesson, as the ITA continues to teach us, is that beating good players and teams is hugely beneficial, while losing to good players and teams doesn't really hurt you that much, so you should probably just play a pretty tough schedule. Here are the Pac-12 players in the new singles rankings:

8. Abbey Forbes, UCLA
9. Michaela Gordon
12. Elysia Bolton, UCLA
13. Haley Giavara, Cal
19. Jada Hart, UCLA
25. Angela Kulikov, USC
28. Valentina Ivanov, Cal
38. Ilze Hattingh, ASU
50. Julia Rosenqvist, Cal
63. Michaela Bayerlova, WSU
66. Emily Arbuthnott
82. Vanessa Wong, UW
91. Savannah Slaysman, ASU
106. Natsuho Arakawa, UW
T107. Melisa Ates, WSU
T111. Angelica Blake
114. Annette Goulak, UCLA
115. Janice Shin
120. Sammi Hampton, ASU

In doubles, Choy/Higuchi are ranked 36th, Arbuthnott/Blake fall to 37th, and Gordon/Shin are unranked. 

Season so far:

OK, let's get to the matches at hand:

* #12 Stanford (6-1) has beaten #16 Michigan and #11 Georgia Tech but lost to #7 UCLA. 
* TCU (2-3) has beaten nobody good and has lost to some middling teams (and one good team in #14 UCF)
* #3 Texas (8-1) has also beaten Georgia Tech and has wins over #4 N.C. State and #6 Ohio State in addition to the one loss to #2 Florida State

TCU Preview:

They're not great, but they do have a couple of ranked singles players, #69 Marie Norris and #119 Mercedes Aristegui. Norris plays at #5, though; her current ranking is due to beating #41 Rebeka Stolmar of UCF, who had a great fall season but isn't one of UCF's best players. This should be a 4-0 win, unless they play it out, in which case it might be 6-1 or 5-2.

Texas Preview: 

This is a dangerous team, and we should hardly be expecting a win. Not only are the Turati twins an excellent doubles team (ranked #20), but as the top 2 of the lineup, they're incredibly dangerous in singles. Ranked singles players include #3 Anna Turati, #26 Bianca Turati, and #61 Lexi Ryngler, though Ryngler wasn't in the lineup at Indoor Nationals. But this is a lineup that is vulnerable after the top 2 spots. Against Florida State, they lost the doubles point (the Turatis won on Court 1 but FSU won on 2 and 3) and lost singles on courts 3, 5, and 6. Against Ohio State, they won doubles and courts 1, 2, and 6, losing 3, 4, and 5. Against N.C. State, they lost doubles and courts 3 and 5, but won everwhere else. Against Georgia Tech, they lost on 5 and 6.  The lesson? We need a really good day from Angelica Blake, Sara Choy, and Emma Higuchi. If we can get three points from those courts, I like our chances at finding one somewhere else or in doubles (where we'd likely lose at #1 and win at #3, leaving it all up to Gordon/Shin at #2). And if we can eke out a 4-3 win, that's awfully big for our ranking. A road win over the #3 team is actually a bit better (107.8 points) than beating the #1 team at home or on a neutral court (106). I wouldn't like our chances against UNC or some of the other top 10 teams, but Texas? I don't hate this matchup for us. 

How to watch:

Live video: https://texassports.com/sports/2018/2/8/texas-tennis-center-live-video.aspx
Live scoring: http://sidearmstats.com/texas/wtennis/xlive.htm

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-19-2020

Want to see something scary? Here's UNC in the singles rankings:

4. Cameron Morra
5. Alexa Graham
6. Sara Daavettila
39. Alle Sanford
43. Makenna Jones
81. Kacie Harvey
T111. Elizabeth Scotty

7 ranked players for 6 spots in the lineup. Uff da.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-19-2020

(02-19-2020, 10:32 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Want to see something scary? Here's UNC in the singles rankings:
7 ranked players for 6 spots in the lineup.

You know the saying: the bigger they are, the harder they fall.  

In this case, though, the second "they" means their opponents. I don't see them losing unless they choke.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - martyup - 02-19-2020

Ddidn't we beat GT? Why are we behind them?

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-19-2020

(02-19-2020, 02:53 PM)martyup Wrote:  Ddidn't we beat GT?  Why are we behind them?
I don't think the computer rankings take head-to-head into account. It's all just points based on the ranking of the teams you beat and lose to. The difference between us is trivial -- less than a point (out of ~46).

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-20-2020

(02-19-2020, 04:16 PM)oldalum Wrote:  
(02-19-2020, 02:53 PM)martyup Wrote:  Ddidn't we beat GT?  Why are we behind them?
I don't think the computer rankings take head-to-head into account. It's all just points based on the ranking of the teams you beat and lose to. The difference between us is trivial -- less than a point (out of ~46).

Correct. The computer rankings ignore head to head, but if these were the rankings at the end of the season, the NCAA tennis committee does take head to head into account for the purposes of NCAA tournament seeding. So, if this were the end of the year, they'd swap us--we'd be the 11 seed and Georgia Tech would be the 12. 

So, nothing to worry about yet, and frankly, the higher Georgia Tech climbs, the better for us. So, here's hoping they do well in the ACC and Michigan rolls through the Big Ten (and UCLA beats everyone else they play, except for us in the regular season and at Pac-12s).

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-20-2020

Why did we schedule an opponent for Friday while the Texas players rest up and the coaches scout us for Saturday? I would have preferred the other way around.

I hope Texas will at least provide live video of our match Friday.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-21-2020

Looks like there is some live video of the Stanford-TCU match (on the South Courts): https://texassports.com/sports/2018/2/8/texas-tennis-center-live-video.aspx

Here's where things stand in doubles right now:

1. Arbuthnott/Blake lead 3-2 (up a break)
2. Gordon/Shin lead 4-1
3. Choy/Higuchi tied 2-2
1. Arbuthnott/Blake win 6-2
2. Gordon/Shin tied 4-4 (the names aren't listed, so I was just assuming this was the pair; but I think that's actually Madurawe paired with Gordon? Hard to tell from the far court, but the braid seems distinctive.)
3. Choy/Higuchi lead 5-2

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-21-2020

We just gave up a break on doubles 2 with a weak double fault, I think because of the sun which is right in the toss.
In what little I've watched, too many unforced errors, so good we're getting a warmup before playing Texas tomorrow

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-21-2020

If that is Madurawe and not Shin playing doubles, I wonder if that means Shin will be resting from the singles lineup, too. I don't think that's a bad thing right now. She could use a break to reset.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-21-2020

OK, so Stanford took doubles, and I had a meeting, so here's where we are!

Stanford 4, TCU 0

1. Gordon led 7-6, 1-0 
2. Arbuthnott led 6-4, 3-0
3. Blake led 6-4, 5-0
4. Shin won 6-0, 6-0 
5. Choy won 6-1, 6-3
6. Higuchi was tied 5-5? Score on that court seems weird, and they weren't playing there when I tuned back in, so presumably the TCU player retired? If so, this meant Shin was the clincher, as everyone largely stopped playing after Shin won her match. So, it makes sense that Emma's match ended in a retirement (or just had a glitchy scoreboard). 

In any event, a good dominating performance across the board, and it has to feel good for Shin to not only play well, but dominate and get the clincher. Onto the next one!

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-21-2020

The official Stanford account is calling it a forfeit on Court 6, which is wrong. It would have been a forfeit if they didn't have 6 players and couldn't offer someone up on that court. But if a match starts and a player can't continue, it's a retirement, not a forfeit. It's a win for us either way, but if the match hadn't started when the player got hurt, they could have subbed in someone else.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - martyup - 02-21-2020

Shin with the double bagel win!

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - fullmetal - 02-21-2020

I finished lunch way too late to make it to the TCU match, and I have to be somewhere at 2pm tomorrow...I might still try to make the first 30-45 min vs. Texas...

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-21-2020

(02-21-2020, 03:10 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  I finished lunch way too late to make it to the TCU match, and I have to be somewhere at 2pm tomorrow...I might still try to make the first 30-45 min vs. Texas...

Doubles sure as heck should be worth watching! If we can take that doubles point, our odds of stealing this one on the road go way, way up.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-22-2020

In doubles so far, we’re up a break on Court 1 (4-2), on serve on 2 (4-3), and down a break on 3 (3-5).
We take Court 1 and lose Court 3, so it’s all down to Gordon/Madurawe on Court 2. They were up a break and serving for it but gave it back. Now they’re up 6-5. Come on!

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-22-2020

Madurawe holds, and that 7-5 win gives us the doubles point! 

If this were an ESPN gamecast, our win likelihood percentage just went from about 33% to something like 60%....

I like our chances on 5 and 6, theirs on 2 and 4, and it’s maybe a coin flip or a slight Texas lean on 1 and 3, given the home court. Gordon and Bianca Turati have their history, so it should be a good match.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-22-2020

That's an impressive doubles win for Arbuthnott/Blake, I had figured them to lose to the Turati twins.

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - ColoradoTree - 02-22-2020

(02-22-2020, 01:07 PM)oldalum Wrote:  That's an impressive doubles win for Arbuthnott/Blake, I had them figured them to lose to the Turati twins.

You and me both, pal. But such are the things of which season-altering road upsets are made!
Stanford 1, Texas 0

1. #9 Gordon vs. #26 Bianca Turati
2. #66 Arbuthnott vs. #2 Anna Turati
3. #111 Blake vs. Adri Nagy
4. #115 Shin vs. Fernanda Labraña
5. Choy vs. Tijana Spasojevic
6. Higuchi vs. Marta Perez Mur

RE: Women's Tennis: Weekend in Texas - oldalum - 02-22-2020

early, Choy is up a break and Gordon is down a break.
Blake is on serve but I like her game vs. Nagy