Fouls and FTs - Printable Version
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Fouls and FTs - treetop11 - 02-22-2020
I've posted previously about our disadvantage in FTs for both MBB and WBB. Admittedly without going back and checking box scores but generally recalling them, our losses for both teams (except for Oregon with WBB and Kansas with MBB), or even closer games than should have been, arguably can be attributed to results at the FT line in terms of attempts, made FTs, and %. Overall, both our teams have less of all three than our opponents - and that includes the number of opponents in non-conference who are considerably weaker and it would be expected that we would have the advantage. Concurrent with this, subjectively it seems that our teams are getting called for more fouls than our opponents (notably conference) especially (and this is subjective) fouls committed by opponents not called or at least not consistent at both ends. And mostly, the disparity seems to show up in shooting fouls or ones due to opponents being in the bonus. So not only are we not getting to the line as much, we are compounding the problem by missing more when we do.
The disparity in attempts can either be:
- refs unfairly targeting our players unfairly or showing preference to our opponents
- our players simply create more fouls due to sloppiness, lack of q & a to avoid fouls, or lack of knowledge/training
- opponents do things that create fouls on us and our players don't know/don't do the same
- our styles of play are not conducive to drawing fouls; opponents play styles that do
- bad luck (e.g. refs not in position or are shielded from seeing fouls, accidental off-balance position by our player causes a foul, etc.)
Although bad luck happens, I tend to discount bad luck because there's no much of a pattern, rather tham being random.
I'm curious to know what others think and your observations on this topic.
As to missing FTs, it's troubling to me especially considering that both our teams in the past were exceptional and at the top of the conference. Now our opponents seem automatic at the line and in a number of games, they are perfect, at least for a most all the game. We struggle from the start (except for Terry and Williams) and miss quite a few front ends of one and one (MBB). It's frustrating watching opponents effortlessly tack on points at the FT line, while for our teams, it's always becoming an adventure (excepting our two PGs above). Is their FT defense that much better than ours? :)
It's not only the points that we fail to add, opponents making theirs and us missing affects both momentum and strategy of the game. Even something as basic as a missed FT allowing the other team to push the ball quickly up the court as opposed to taking the ball OOB and our defense setting up - but there is much more especially related to momentum where made FTs can stop a run and calm down a team. Worse, missed FTs are deflating. I really hate it when our player makes a great move on offense or gets a steal and ruin out, and then a defender deliberately fouls ti prevent our player from being able to put in it the basket for a score and then our player goes to the line and misses 1 or 2 FTs. Wasted opportunity but also waste of a great play that would pick up our team.
Sure would like to see these things improve for the balance of the season and post season.
RE: Fouls and FTs - WBB fan - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 02:25 PM)treetop11 Wrote: I've posted previously about our disadvantage in FTs for both MBB and WBB. Admittedly without going back and checking box scores but generally recalling them, our losses for both teams (except for Oregon with WBB and Kansas with MBB), or even closer games than should have been, arguably can be attributed to results at the FT line in terms of attempts, made FTs, and %. Overall, both our teams have less of all three than our opponents - and that includes the number of opponents in non-conference who are considerably weaker and it would be expected that we would have the advantage. Concurrent with this, subjectively it seems that our teams are getting called for more fouls than our opponents (notably conference) especially (and this is subjective) fouls committed by opponents not called or at least not consistent at both ends. And mostly, the disparity seems to show up in shooting fouls or ones due to opponents being in the bonus. So not only are we not getting to the line as much, we are compounding the problem by missing more when we do.
The disparity in attempts can either be:
- refs unfairly targeting our players unfairly or showing preference to our opponents
- our players simply create more fouls due to sloppiness, lack of q & a to avoid fouls, or lack of knowledge/training
- opponents do things that create fouls on us and our players don't know/don't do the same
- our styles of play are not conducive to drawing fouls; opponents play styles that do
- bad luck (e.g. refs not in position or are shielded from seeing fouls, accidental off-balance position by our player causes a foul, etc.)
Although bad luck happens, I tend to discount bad luck because there's no much of a pattern, rather tham being random.
I'm curious to know what others think and your observations on this topic.
As to missing FTs, it's troubling to me especially considering that both our teams in the past were exceptional and at the top of the conference. Now our opponents seem automatic at the line and in a number of games, they are perfect, at least for a most all the game. We struggle from the start (except for Terry and Williams) and miss quite a few front ends of one and one (MBB). It's frustrating watching opponents effortlessly tack on points at the FT line, while for our teams, it's always becoming an adventure (excepting our two PGs above). Is their FT defense that much better than ours? :)
It's not only the points that we fail to add, opponents making theirs and us missing affects both momentum and strategy of the game. Even something as basic as a missed FT allowing the other team to push the ball quickly up the court as opposed to taking the ball OOB and our defense setting up - but there is much more especially related to momentum where made FTs can stop a run and calm down a team. Worse, missed FTs are deflating. I really hate it when our player makes a great move on offense or gets a steal and ruin out, and then a defender deliberately fouls ti prevent our player from being able to put in it the basket for a score and then our player goes to the line and misses 1 or 2 FTs. Wasted opportunity but also waste of a great play that would pick up our team.
Sure would like to see these things improve for the balance of the season and post season.
The missed free throws are painful -- especially when it's by a player like Lexie who has been accurate at the line in the past. Tara says that the women practice and practice free throws, and in practice they are good. So what happens? Mental focus and tired legs are certainly issues that have to be considered.
So many questions about all this, possible solutions. For one, although the NBA free throw percentage career record currently belongs to Steph Curry, at just over 90%, Rick Barry is #7 on the list at 89% and he always shot free throws underhanded. Nearly everyone thought it was strange, but it worked. Not suggesting that Stanford players should do that, but I've never been able to forget it.
RE: Fouls and FTs - here4WBB - 02-22-2020
hoping dumb questions are allowed here -- can someone explain to me the two free throws that Kianna (I think it was her) got after the technical without the other players lined up outside the key? I've been searching NCAA rules and am coming up empty handed. TIA
RE: Fouls and FTs - treetop11 - 02-22-2020
Choosing between the two, I would say focus. Using Lexie as an example, her shots mid range and beyond were short like what happens with tired legs. But later in the game, she started making those mid range shots yet she was also missing 1 out of two at the line. So her legs must have been fine as the game progressed.
Focus is part of it - at least for some players. For the men, I notice that Keefe, Kisunas, and Wills (not quite as bad as before) seemed to get at the line and act like they couldn't get out of there fast enough, just rush up a shot. Or sometimes, they treat it a like a throw away - kind of how Lexie was last night and then on the second shots, she would concentrate.
IMO, I think it's mostly all mental. Our kids need to take their time, relax, and then focus as they about to shoot. They also need to be conscious of the feel of the ball in their hands and the release. It should all feel smooth and flowing not off balance or awkward in any way. I don't see any of the kids, men's or women, whose stroke is so bad that they continually clang up bricks. Even Keefe who is one of our worst FT shooters has a nice stroke and swishes the net when he makes them - problem is that misses are just the opposite and ugly without a chance of going in.
RE: Fouls and FTs - qwerty49 - 02-22-2020
Yeah, we don't seem to have the style of offense that draws on-ball fouls. I think missing Carrington and Jones (and Brown this last game) has a lot to do with it. Williams, probably because of her height, has learned to take the early floater down the lane with great success, something I'd love to see Lexie do more of.
Talk about excruciating -- I can't remember if it was Lexie or Lacie who missed both FTs on a two-shot foul and fortunately converted try #3 after an OSU lane violation.
Couple of thoughts:
1) Have we never given thought to specific coaching re FT shooting? Seems like something that could fit into the off-season easily enough. Tara apparently knows this guy (assuming he's still alive -- he would be 82 now).
https://www.ottawaherald.com/d55a1b99-ddc1-5e1b-96d3-1b6f13a385bf.html
There's also this guy, who beat the first guy in a head-to-head competition on the 91st FT and is a relative spring chicken at age 69.
https://twitter.com/freethrowmaster?lang=en
2) Here's an old article (might be behind the NYT paywall) that cites the collegiate average FT% as 69%. Coincidentally, that's pretty much where we have been historically every season.
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/sports/basketball/04freethrow.html
Best clutch FTs I can remember? RosGo (never known for FT shooting) converting several down the stretch to seal the win against Tenn back in the day. On the MBB side, Chris Hernandez, fouled on a 3 with 0.2 secs left, made all 3 shots, sending us to OT and we eventually beat ranked UW -- unforgettable.
RE: Fouls and FTs - WBB fan - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:02 PM)here4WBB Wrote: hoping dumb questions are allowed here -- can someone explain to me the two free throws that Kianna (I think it was her) got after the technical without the other players lined up outside the key? I've been searching NCAA rules and am coming up empty handed. TIA
No questions are dumb if you don't know the answer, so ask away. That's my attitude. At any rate, as I understand the rules, the two shots were the penalty on OSU for the technical. No one lines up to go for a rebound. You get two shots, in or out. Then your team gets the ball out of bounds. And one other thing. If there's a technical, the team shooting gets to choose who goes to the line. So, obviously, you choose to have your best free throw shooter take the shots.
RE: Fouls and FTs - here4WBB - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:22 PM)wbbfan Wrote:(02-22-2020, 04:02 PM)here4WBB Wrote: hoping dumb questions are allowed here -- can someone explain to me the two free throws that Kianna (I think it was her) got after the technical without the other players lined up outside the key? I've been searching NCAA rules and am coming up empty handed. TIA
Ah! Mystery solved.
No questions are dumb if you don't know the answer, so ask away. That's my attitude. At any rate, as I understand the rules, the two shots were the penalty on OSU for the technical. No one lines up to go for a rebound. You get two shots, in or out. Then your team gets the ball out of bounds.
RE: Fouls and FTs - 2006alum - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:21 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Best clutch FTs I can remember? RosGo (never known for FT shooting) converting several down the stretch to seal the win against Tenn back in the day. On the MBB side, Chris Hernandez, unforgettable.
In my time as a Stanford fan (so since undergrad), I can't remember a Stanford player with a better shooter's touch than Chris Hernandez. It was like magic.
My general sense is that (a) you tend to notice your own team's FT misses more than the other team's, so it always *feels* like more of a disparity; and (b) at least with regards to the women, as I've stated elsewhere, I have observed a tendency for the refs to scrutinize the Hulls more closely and generally rarely give them the benefit of the doubt. I'm really not sure why - there were two fouls last night, one each on Lexie and Lacie, that both felt like, if anything, they should have gone the other way. I boo'd one so audibly half the OSU bench turned and glared at me. (I was seated on their end behind the hoop, so I probably wasn't more than 30 feet away).
For an example of (a), recall that we escaped Colorado last weekend only because they missed *four* free throws in the final 30 seconds. Or at OSU, where Kiana Williams went 3-4 from the line in the final seconds, while Slocum went 0-2. Reverse those percentages, and we lose in Corvallis.
RE: Fouls and FTs - WBB fan - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:21 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Yeah, we don't seem to have the style of offense that draws on-ball fouls. I think missing Carrington and Jones (and Brown this last game) has a lot to do with it. Williams, probably because of her height, has learned to take the early floater down the lane with great success, something I'd love to see Lexie do more of.
Talk about excruciating -- I can't remember if it was Lexie or Lacie who missed both FTs on a two-shot foul and fortunately converted try #3 after an OSU lane violation.
Couple of thoughts:
1) Have we never given thought to specific coaching re FT shooting? Seems like something that could fit into the off-season easily enough. Tara apparently knows this guy (assuming he's still alive -- he would be 82 now).
https://www.ottawaherald.com/d55a1b99-ddc1-5e1b-96d3-1b6f13a385bf.html
There's also this guy, who beat the first guy in a head-to-head competition on the 91st FT and is a relative spring chicken at age 69.
https://twitter.com/freethrowmaster?lang=en
2) Here's an old article (might be behind the NYT paywall) that cites the collegiate average FT% as 69%. Coincidentally, that's pretty much where we have been historically every season.
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/sports/basketball/04freethrow.html
Best clutch FTs I can remember? RosGo (never known for FT shooting) converting several down the stretch to seal the win against Tenn back in the day. On the MBB side, Chris Hernandez, fouled on a 3 with 0.2 secs left, made all 3 shots, sending us to OT and we eventually beat ranked UW -- unforgettable.
Another clutch free throw, if I remember it right -- Amber Orrange hitting to send the 2014 game against U Conn at Maples into OT so that we could win it. (Or was the free throw(s) in OT. Not sure, but it was in there.)
RE: Fouls and FTs - treetop11 - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:31 PM)2006alum Wrote:(02-22-2020, 04:21 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Best clutch FTs I can remember? RosGo (never known for FT shooting) converting several down the stretch to seal the win against Tenn back in the day. On the MBB side, Chris Hernandez, unforgettable.
In my time as a Stanford fan (so since undergrad), I can't remember a Stanford player with a better shooter's touch than Chris Hernandez. It was like magic.
My general sense is that (a) you tend to notice your own team's FT misses more than the other team's, so it always *feels* like more of a disparity; and (b) at least with regards to the women, as I've stated elsewhere, I have observed a tendency for the refs to scrutinize the Hulls more closely and generally rarely give them the benefit of the doubt. I'm really not sure why - there were two fouls last night, one each on Lexie and Lacie, that both felt like, if anything, they should have gone the other way. I boo'd one so audibly half the OSU bench turned and glared at me. (I was seated on their end behind the hoop, so I probably wasn't more than 30 feet away).
For an example of (a), recall that we escaped Colorado last weekend only because they missed *four* free throws in the final 30 seconds. Or at OSU, where Kiana Williams went 3-4 from the line in the final seconds, while Slocum went 0-2. Reverse those percentages, and we lose in Corvallis.
Except stats prove that we are worse. however, i do acknowledge that a few of our opponents have been great for almost all the game (sometimes perfect as OSU was last night) and then miss some key FTs down the stretch (clearly nerves or mental). Regardless, the numbers show that we are giving away way too much in FTs at both ends and it's costly.
Your observations about the Hulls is interesting. I'm curious to know the consensus here by folks as to how much of the foul disparity relates to officiating and how much to our players/style of play. What I don't get is why recent years have been so bad compared to the past. Maybe Monty's teams and older Tara teams relied more on bigger posts/more offense in the post which created fouls as opposed to different types/styles now? OTOH, our PGs used to go to the line a bunch.
RE: Fouls and FTs - 2006alum - 02-22-2020
(02-22-2020, 04:48 PM)treetop11 Wrote: Except stats prove that we are worse. however, i do acknowledge that a few of our opponents have been great for almost all the game (sometimes perfect as OSU was last night) and then miss some key FTs down the stretch (clearly nerves or mental). Regardless, the numbers show that we are giving away way too much in FTs at both ends and it's costly.
Your observations about the Hulls is interesting. I'm curious to know the consensus here by folks as to how much of the foul disparity relates to officiating and how much to our players/style of play. What I don't get is why recent years have been so bad compared to the past. Maybe Monty's teams and older Tara teams relied more on bigger posts/more offense in the post which created fouls as opposed to different types/styles now? OTOH, our PGs used to go to the line a bunch.
I guess I question a bit how much "worse" we are, at least for the women. (I haven't followed the men closely enough for the past decade to have anything useful to add.) For the women, here's our numbers over the past 10 years:
Us v. Opponents, FT%
10-11: .742 to .656
11-12: .762 to .676
12-13: .718 to .699
13-14: .698 to .655
14-15: .720 to .678
15-16: .692 to .692
16-17: .692 to .687
17-18: .642 to .720
18-19: .699 to .715
19-20: .701 to .714 (to date)
So in the past decade, we tied or had the edge over our opponents every year until 17-18 forward. Let's break down each part of this.
First, us: apart from our last golden years (10-11 and 11-12), we've pretty much hovered +/- .020 from .700 just about every year, including this one. So I don't notice a considerable downward trend since Nneka graduated. And speaking of which, those 10-11 and 11-12 teams had four future WNBA first-round players on them. We have simply never had as much talent in a starting 5 since the streak of A-A's beginning with Wiggins and ending with Chiney. I think we will likely be there again in a year or two, but it's perhaps not a coincidence that our FT% is the highest it's been since 14-15.
Second, them: quite simply, our competition has gotten much, much better because of the growth of quality in the PAC-12. Recall that we easily won the regular conference title every year from 2001-2014. Since then, precisely when we last won it, conference competition has markedly improved. Sure, that argument is a *bit* tautological, since part of their improvement has been at the line. But I just think we are facing much better players and those players will, in general, be better FT shooters, all else equal. One way to tell is our opponent's FG% over that same time:
Us v. Opponents, FG%
09-10: .463 to .339
10-11: .492 to .336
11-12: .456 to .339
12-13: .455 to .316
13-14: .470 to .357
14-15: .435 to .370
15-16: .426 to .338
16-17: .445 to .350
17-18: .424 to .367
18-19: .442 to .358
19-20: .448 to .346 (to date)
When I look at those numbers, I'm just not convinced that our FT% is a significant problem vs. any other facet of our game (esp. since I think our average defense has improved in the past decade, even in the face of better competition). Since 13-14, our last year winning the PAC-12, our FG% has declined alongside our FT%, and our competition has been consistently better than it was before that.
The only year where it really seems like we were hurting vs. our opponents at the line was 17-18, and it's notable that we lost three starters off a Final Four team and our two leading scorers, Brittany McPhee (.687) and Alanna Smith (.531), were among the worst FT shooters we've had among our "star players" in the past decade. By comparison, this season Williams (.877) and Lexie (.766) seem downright clutch.
RE: Fouls and FTs - terry - 02-22-2020
When I think of Stanford players (men and women) who were good free throw shooters, the first name that comes to mind is Ryan Mendez.
lex24 - lex24 - 02-22-2020
I know it’s off topic. But I believe the most clutch anything in sports history is when Doug Collins hit two FTs down one with 2 seconds left, for the US against the USSR in the ‘72 Olympics. Of course, no one remembers that after the debacle that followed. But THAT was pressure. Particularly given the times.