The CardBoard
WBB: Latest bracketology - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: WBB: Latest bracketology (/thread-19009.html)


WBB: Latest bracketology - mbdude - 02-24-2020

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
Oregon st falls to 5 seed

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28769691/sunday-winners-losers-women-bracketology

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - crackpot - 02-24-2020

That's gotta hurt. Pac-12 is killing off its own.

Meanwhile, UConn has *how* many wins against Top-10 teams?

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - AxeMan89 - 02-24-2020

Any why does Charlie think Maryland is any good? Best wins over middling-ranked Michigan, Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa - with losses to two of them.

(02-24-2020, 09:41 AM)crackpot Wrote:  That's gotta hurt. Pac-12 is killing off its own.

Meanwhile, UConn has *how* many wins against Top-10 teams?


RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - bbm233 - 02-24-2020

And our best win is??? Oregon State on the road (the Beavers have lost every time they had a chance to notch a marquee win)? Arizona at home? Tennessee at home? Gonzaga at home? Miss State at a neutral site?

We don't exactly have a top-shelf win either, but we have a bunch of good wins.

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - M T - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 09:41 AM)crackpot Wrote:  Meanwhile, UConn has *how* many wins against Top-10 teams?



Just so someone else doesn't have to look it up:

Against top-25 opponents, they are 1-3, beating AP #16 (RPI #22) DePaul 84-74.

They've also beaten AP unranked, RPI #21 Ohio St.

Next best win is against RPI #39 UCF.



This seems to be a classic case of the weakness of RPI when UConn has an RPI rank of #6 and hasn't beaten anyone better than #21, with only two wins better than #39.



Compare to the team with RPI rank #7, with wins over RPI #12, #15, #16, #16, #21.

Against the top-25 AP ranked, 4-2.

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - oldalum - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 12:58 PM)bbm233 Wrote:  And our best win is???  Arizona at home?

haven't played Arizona yet

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - 2006alum - 02-24-2020

I trust Massey much more than RPI. One notable difference is that he factors in margin of victory, which I think is relevant, because, for example, our buzzer beater vs. Colorado was so improbable that that win should count for less than if we beat them by 20 in terms of future predictions. 

Massey has Maryland at 4, UConn at 5, and Stanford at 7. Per his rankings, our top 20 wins were a neutral win over MSU, vs. Gonzaga, vs. OSU, and at OSU. Note that all four wins are by 6 points or less. We really don't have any truly signature wins, and our "good" wins were all close. Many of our formerly "good" wins have weakened over time: Tennessee, Syracuse, and Oregon St. all seemed like better wins initially than they have become.

While UConn has fewer good wins, UConn has also avoided doing what we've done: lose to truly mediocre teams (Texas) or pull out squeakers against others (vs. Colorado, at Colorado, neutral over Cal Baptist). All of that should factor into any predictions about future performance.

In terms of the eye test, I'd say right now, with Carrington and Jones out, their first five have the edge on our first five, but our bench is deeper. We both got demolished by Oregon, us a bit worse, but also at their place. 

Overall, I think it's fair to give the edge to the team with 11 straight final fours.

(And incidentally, while I think Brenda Friese is serially overrated, if you've watched Maryland recently, you'd see a team that is getting much better and has become really, really good. Their freshman Ashley Owusu is probably a finalist for FOY. Outside of SC, Baylor, and Oregon, I wouldn't discount them at all as among the best of the rest.)

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - WBB fan - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 01:44 PM)2006alum Wrote:  I trust Massey much more than RPI. One notable difference is that he factors in margin of victory, which I think is relevant, because, for example, our buzzer beater vs. Colorado was so improbable that that win should count for less than if we beat them by 20 in terms of future predictions. 

Massey has Maryland at 4, UConn at 5, and Stanford at 7. Per his rankings, our top 20 wins were a neutral win over MSU, vs. Gonzaga, vs. OSU, and at OSU. Note that all four wins are by 6 points or less. We really don't have any truly signature wins, and our "good" wins were all close. Many of our formerly "good" wins have weakened over time: Tennessee, Syracuse, and Oregon St. all seemed like better wins initially than they have become.

While UConn has fewer good wins, UConn has also avoided doing what we've done: lose to truly mediocre teams (Texas) or pull out squeakers against others (vs. Colorado, at Colorado, neutral over Cal Baptist). All of that should factor into any predictions about future performance.

In terms of the eye test, I'd say right now, with Carrington and Jones out, their first five have the edge on our first five, but our bench is deeper. We both got demolished by Oregon, us a bit worse, but also at their place. 

Overall, I think it's fair to give the edge to the team with 11 straight final fours.

(And incidentally, while I think Brenda Friese is serially overrated, if you've watched Maryland recently, you'd see a team that is getting much better and has become really, really good. Their freshman Ashley Owusu is probably a finalist for FOY. Outside of SC, Baylor, and Oregon, I wouldn't discount them at all as among the best of the rest.)

Good, useful analysis. Thanks.

RE: WBB: Latest bracketology - crackpot - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 01:44 PM)2006alum Wrote:  Overall, I think it's fair to give the edge to the team with 11 straight final fours.

None of those teams is playing this season.