Economic & Financial Effects - Printable Version

Economic & Financial Effects - Printable Version

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Economic & Financial Effects - BostonCard - 03-17-2020

So, the airlines have requested a $50 billion bailout. Not a surprise, they are getting slammed by voluntary and mandated reduction in travel. I posted a note from United that said they are cutting 50% of their flights, and that even then, they are anticipating only 20 - 30% load factors. Since airlines operate on pretty razor thin margins, I am pretty sure that most, if not all airlines will go bankrupt. And airlines employ 621,000 employees in the US.

On the other hand there is this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart

Quote:The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow last decade on buying back their own shares.

So, should the airlines be bailed out? Or should they be liquidated (wiping out stockholders and bondholders), their assets sold for pennies on the dollar to someone who can be responsible, and their employees supported until the new entity can ramp up and start hiring. After all, at some point, maybe in 3 months, maybe in a couple years, air travel will start up again and the employees can be re-hired.

BC

Ditto cruise companies, who also want a bailout, but have used their registrations in places like Panama to pay ultra low effective tax rates (0.8% in the US, 1.3% worldwide).

https://boondoggle.substack.com/p/no-cruise-bailout-without-conditions

And as the article points out, while there is a plausible case to be made that the airline industry is vital to US national interests, the same really can't be said about the cruise industry.

BC

RE: Bailouts - burger - 03-17-2020

Liquidate, wipe out shareholders, give all the former employees generous unemployment benefits and free health care. We gave the airlines a blank check in 2001/2002 and they spent the subsequent 18 years making life miserable for all but the richest/most frequent travelers while making bank. Screw them and definitely screw their shareholders.

If a bailout happens, it needs to come with conditions: generous space between seats, no fees for baggage, minimal fees at most for flight changes, splitting up some of the bigger carriers again to undo the consolidation that's happened recently, tight limits on executive compensation, etc.

RE: Bailouts - shinsengumi - 03-17-2020

Bailouts may be required, but it needs to come with a number of strings attached. I would look at some of the mechanisms that were used with banks after the financial crisis.

From a financial standpoint, Congress should look at stress testing; no dividend and share buybacks without substantial reserve requirements; limits on executive compensation for a 10-year period; etc.

From a consumer standpoint, aggressive policing of predatory pricing on monopoly routes. Potentially look at passenger compensation requirements in case of non-weather delays (ala Eurozone). If you want to be a populist, throw in minimum seat pitch requirements and no baggage fees.

Lots of ideas out there. The US airlines have spent the last decade rewarding its management, employees and shareholders handsomely. Only waiting to be bailed out at the first sign of trouble.

Recession predictions - BostonCard - 03-17-2020

Goldman is predicting flat growth in Q1, a 5% drop in Q2 and a rebound in the second half of the year.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426

This strikes me as a bit optimistic in terms of the speed of recovery?

BC

RE: Recession predictions - stupac2 - 03-17-2020

Yeah I'd probably naively pick the under on all of those. Then again forecasting is hard enough in normal times, I can't imagine what the error bars are like now...

RE: Recession predictions - cardcrimson - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 09:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Goldman is predicting flat growth in Q1, a 5% drop in Q2 and a rebound in the second half of the year.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426

This strikes me as a bit optimistic in terms of the speed of recovery?

BC

China is starting to rebound at the moment, though it is rebounding gradually. Also, I'd imagine that the estimates are incorporating the expectation that the virus slows down during the summer months. Allegedly, viruses don't like heat.

RE: Recession predictions - Mick - 03-17-2020

I think we're looking at a self-inflicted Depression, not a recession, based upon the four emergency calls on which I participated today. We're looking at a reduction in demand by 25% to 40%. Doesn't feel like a recession to me. Feels like a Depression. And it will be too late when everyone else wakes up.

RE: Bailouts - Mick - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 08:52 AM)burger Wrote: Liquidate, wipe out shareholders, give all the former employees generous unemployment benefits and free health care. We gave the airlines a blank check in 2001/2002 and they spent the subsequent 18 years making life miserable for all but the richest/most frequent travelers while making bank. Screw them and definitely screw their shareholders.

If a bailout happens, it needs to come with conditions: generous space between seats, no fees for baggage, minimal fees at most for flight changes, splitting up some of the bigger carriers again to undo the consolidation that's happened recently, tight limits on executive compensation, etc.

100% agree.

RE: Bailouts - OutsiderFan - 03-17-2020

We're gonna end up with more socialism than even Bernie Sanders wants. How many industries can Uncle Sam own?

My take:

- Airlines get bailout with MAJOR strings attached because they are essential infrastructure of sorts.
- Everyone else takes the pipe.
- Direct payments to American citizens. Let them create the demand that drives new business operations and new investments.

Treat this crisis like a forest fire that gives new life to an ecosystem.

RE: Recession predictions - BostonCard - 03-17-2020

Some stimulus proposals are starting to come into shape:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/03/17/trump-coronavirus-stimulus-package/

Trump has talked about a payroll tax holiday, though it looks like the White House's $850 million proposal will focus on sending checks out to help immediately. Chuck Schumer has his own $750 million plan.

The concern I have is that lack of money in people's pockets is not the problem at this time. Until the pandemic can be brought under control, spending is going to be limited, both through mandated and just plain natural fear. I think the best we can do is try to tie people over for the next few months so that businesses don't go out of business and people can be tided over so that they don't have knock-on effects on the economy.

BC

RE: Recession predictions - WBB fan - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 09:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Goldman is predicting flat growth in Q1, a 5% drop in Q2 and a rebound in the second half of the year.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426

This strikes me as a bit optimistic in terms of the speed of recovery?

BC

Agree that is optimistic, but I'd say more than a bit. My bet is on a serious recession, starting in the 2nd quarter and extending beyond that. It will take time to bounce back, and yes, how long all this lasts will affect things. One thing that I think the optimists are not taking into account is that there is worldwide economic distress from this. We can't look to other countries to pull us out of a downturn. Everyone will be struggling.

RE: Recession predictions - OutsiderFan - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 09:40 AM)Mick Wrote: I think we're looking at a self-inflicted Depression, not a recession, based upon the four emergency calls on which I participated today. We're looking at a reduction in demand by 25% to 40%. Doesn't feel like a recession to me. Feels like a Depression. And it will be too late when everyone else wakes up.

Can you elaborate on these emergency calls and what specific demand is reducing so much?

RE: Recession predictions - 2006alum - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 09:40 AM)Mick Wrote: I think we're looking at a self-inflicted Depression, not a recession, based upon the four emergency calls on which I participated today. We're looking at a reduction in demand by 25% to 40%. Doesn't feel like a recession to me. Feels like a Depression. And it will be too late when everyone else wakes up.

Is your definition of self-inflicted that we should be not taking such precautions because the virus isn't as bad as people are anticipating, or self-inflicted insofar as our leadership seemed to be several weeks to a month behind where they should have been in terms of being able to identify, isolate, and contain the spread of the virus?

I guess I ask because "self-inflicted" suggests it could be avoidable, but I don't see how without either a time machine or a societal conclusion that we'll take our chances and risk the loss of several million lives.

RE: Bailouts - 2006alum - 03-17-2020

Here's what I don't understand about talks about giving $$$ to Americans: how will this be done? Even the Social Security offices are closing!

If they send checks, what about people who are stuck away from the address where they last filed their taxes? Or moved since last year?

If they want to do wire transfers, how will they get every American adult's bank information? A website? What about people who don't have bank accounts?

I'm honestly pretty confused about how, in point of fact, the government could relatively readily get the money into the hands of Americans in anything less than at least a few weeks, and that's after the legislation would be enacted into law.

RE: Recession predictions - stupac2 - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 10:02 AM)BostonCard Wrote: The concern I have is that lack of money in people's pockets is not the problem at this time.

Probably not what you'd be saying if you were a server or a bartender or a hotel worker or flight attendant etc etc etc.

Plus people like you and me (and I assume most of us on here) might be more likely to get takeout a few times a week if we have that extra $1k or whatever.

RE: Bailouts - burger - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 02:21 PM)2006alum Wrote: Here's what I don't understand about talks about giving $$$ to Americans: how will this be done? Even the Social Security offices are closing!

If they send checks, what about people who are stuck away from the address where they last filed their taxes? Or moved since last year?

If they want to do wire transfers, how will they get every American adult's bank information? A website? What about people who don't have bank accounts?

I'm honestly pretty confused about how, in point of fact, the government could relatively readily get the money into the hands of Americans in anything less than at least a few weeks, and that's after the legislation would be enacted into law.

The IRS mailed everyone checks in 2002, I think, as our rebate on the "surplus" (boy, that surplus didn't last long). And again in 2008, I think. So they have the capacity to do this. Mnuchin says they could send out checks in 2 weeks. ...Hopefully that is not the same 2 weeks within which we were supposed to see a million covid tests.

Anyway, I think as a practical matter it can be done.

RE: Recession predictions - BostonCard - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 02:52 PM)stupac2 Wrote:
(03-17-2020, 10:02 AM)BostonCard Wrote: The concern I have is that lack of money in people's pockets is not the problem at this time.

Probably not what you'd be saying if you were a server or a bartender or a hotel worker or flight attendant etc etc etc.

Plus people like you and me (and I assume most of us on here) might be more likely to get takeout a few times a week if we have that extra $1k or whatever.

Definitely not good phrasing on my part; I did follow it up with "I think the best we can do is try to tie people over for the next few months so that businesses don't go out of business and people can be tided over so that they don't have knock-on effects on the economy".

I think I was trying to make an argument against a broad-based "give every American money" and more towards "let's target individuals who are directly affected by the pandemic" (such as your bartenders, hotel worker, or flight attendant).

Just to give you an idea, I had started shopping for a car. That's on hold now, because it isn't urgent and in any case I'm not driving. That would inject some money into the economy. Unfortunately, an extra $1000 or even winning the lottery isn't going to be the difference between me buying a car and waiting until this passes.

The good news, such as it is, is that after the pandemic passes, I will be buying that car... unless of course I lose my job because of the recession because of the pandemic.

BC

RE: Bailouts - 2006alum - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 03:03 PM)burger Wrote: The IRS mailed everyone checks in 2002, I think, as our rebate on the "surplus" (boy, that surplus didn't last long). And again in 2008, I think. So they have the capacity to do this. Mnuchin says they could send out checks in 2 weeks. ...Hopefully that is not the same 2 weeks within which we were supposed to see a million covid tests.

Anyway, I think as a practical matter it can be done.

Hmm, this paper says the tax cut bill was passed by Congress in the spring of 2001 and tax rebate checks were sent out "beginning in late July and continuing until late September." This suggests somewhere between 3 and 6 months after the legislation was enacted.

And again, that is presumably to households that had filed taxes that year and were eligible for rebates. Not all households file taxes. And sending out checks in Spring 2020 to addresses for tax filing from Spring 2019 risks sending checks to a lot of people who have moved. Moreover, in circumstances such as mine, I am not presently at my tax filing address, and sheltering in place/travel bans would prevent me from getting back there.

Not to mention, are banks operating normal hours right now? Will there be no delays in mail delivery in the next few weeks from workers who self-quarantine or are sick?

I guess I'm not sold that that method will be either fast enough, accurate enough, nor reach everyone eligible.

RE: Bailouts - Mick - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 09:13 AM)shinsengumi Wrote: Bailouts may be required, but it needs to come with a number of strings attached.

I wonder if one of the strings attached would be that the money could only be spent on goods and services and not to pay down debt.

RE: Recession predictions - Mick - 03-17-2020

(03-17-2020, 10:18 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:
(03-17-2020, 09:40 AM)Mick Wrote: I think we're looking at a self-inflicted Depression, not a recession, based upon the four emergency calls on which I participated today. We're looking at a reduction in demand by 25% to 40%. Doesn't feel like a recession to me. Feels like a Depression. And it will be too late when everyone else wakes up.

Can you elaborate on these emergency calls and what specific demand is reducing so much?

All the calls were internal, but involved information gleaned from other firms. Collectively, we feel that businesses will reduce demand and hold on to cash. Or to put it another way, I lived through the 2009 financial disaster, and this feels much, much worse. At the time, we laid off 30% of staff, reduced comp for the remainder of the staff. Our largest client told us they would buy nothing from us for six months.

The calls today were in that same vein...not that they were going to happen, but that we should be "prepared" to take "drastic measures" and they will "try to protect people's jobs." I don't think this will be a severe recession. I think it will be worse.

(03-17-2020, 11:01 AM)2006alum Wrote:
(03-17-2020, 09:40 AM)Mick Wrote: I think we're looking at a self-inflicted Depression, not a recession, based upon the four emergency calls on which I participated today. We're looking at a reduction in demand by 25% to 40%. Doesn't feel like a recession to me. Feels like a Depression. And it will be too late when everyone else wakes up.

Is your definition of self-inflicted that we should be not taking such precautions because the virus isn't as bad as people are anticipating, or self-inflicted insofar as our leadership seemed to be several weeks to a month behind where they should have been in terms of being able to identify, isolate, and contain the spread of the virus?

I guess I ask because "self-inflicted" suggests it could be avoidable, but I don't see how without either a time machine or a societal conclusion that we'll take our chances and risk the loss of several million lives.

it has nothing to do with the speed of our leaders to anticipate and/or react to the pandemic. As a society, we went from basic preventable steps to shelter-in-place in very short order. And I question whether it will have a material impact on our loss of life. This country has very few hospital beds, and about 70% are taken up at any one time. Whether 70% of the population gets infected in six months or 18 months, the numbers needed to be hospitalized will be a strong multiple of our capabilities. And the Elites are absolutely willing to destroy our economy to go down that path.