We can beat this! - Printable Version

We can beat this! - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: We can beat this! (/thread-19129.html)

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We can beat this! - BostonCard - 03-18-2020

I wanted to post something a tad more optimistic on this board, because the news out there is scary and if you look at the numbers of cases (broke 200,000 today) and the deaths piling up, it is easy to get despondent.

I want to push back hard against two (opposite) ideas that are ciruclating. The first is that this pandemic is no big deal, which is something that was espoused early in the epidemic and even now, as pictures of teaming beaches in South Florida and interviews with young revelers attest to, is sadly persistent. Even if you personally are at low risk or if you get infected are able to recover, every one of us is capable of killing someone via the chain of transmission. By our actions, we are able to prevent others (maybe our higher risk friends and loved ones, maybe a healthcare worker, maybe a random stranger three or four links down the infection change, from dying). And so I look appalingly at people who say that this is no big deal and that they don't care if they get the disease because they are young and healthy and low risk.

The second thing I wanted to push back against is that we are powerless in the face of the pandemic. Yes, the numbers are starting to look staggering. Yes, it looks like we are becoming overwhelmed. Yes, controlling the epidemic will be hard. But it is not impossible. Specifically, R0, the basic reproduction number that was brought up early in the pandemic is not immutable. Yes, an R0 of 2-3 (is scary) because it means that for every infected patient you would expect two new people to become infected. This is visible as the exponential growth we've seen in cases. But here's the thing, R0 is not immutable. It is of course influenced by viral characteristics (how long it persists on surfaces, how much viral shedding it induces, and how easy it can infect a healthy person it comes into contact with). However, R0 is also influenced by a number of variables we can control, specifically the frequency and intensity of person-to-person contact or personal contact with infected surfaces. Getting the R0 down is what causes the curve to flatten (if the closer it is to 1, the "flatter" the curve is). And all it would take to stabilize the pandemic is to reduce that portion enough to bring R0 to 1 (stable disease) or below 1 (infections actually start to go down). If you reduce cumulative contact (and its intensity) by a factor of 2 to 3, R0 will in fact fall to 1 or below. That's the point of social distancing, washing hands, not touching your face, etc. Each of those actions, when done cumulatively by society, reduces the rate of transmission, and if done enough will actually get the pandemic under control and start to bring the number of cases down.

If you believe the numbers, China was able to do it effectively. And if you don't believe the Chinese numbers, South Korea was also able to do it effectively. South Korea was getting 750+ cases a day at the peak of their epidemic. They have brought that rate down to under 100 cases/day, and they now have more cases resolving than new cases (which means the number of patients infected is going down).

[Image: skitch.png]

Now, of course, things will start to look worse before they get better because there are a lot of undiagnosed infections, and because of the latent period, what we know today really reflects what happened 1 - 2 weeks ago. But if we can get through the worst, and are able to bring the number of new infections down to a more manageable level, then it will be possible to keep the epidemic controlled long enough through more moderate social distancing measures (no large gatherings), enhanced hygiene (hand washing) and good old fashioned epidemic control measures (widespread testing, case identification, quarantine of cases, contact tracing, and isolation and testing of contacts).

The situation is not hopeless! And while I recognize the challenges ahead and the economic impact of all of this, I am actually reasonably optimistic that if we act, the worst predictions will not come to pass. But we all need to do our part.

BC

RE: We can beat this! - martyup - 03-18-2020

Here is some more good news:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/good-news-covid-19-pandemic-peter-h-diamandis

RE: We can beat this! - terry - 03-18-2020

Thanks for the post, BC. Yes, this too shall pass. But there will be a lot of pain along the way. My heart goes out to those who are losing loved ones, and to those who are losing paychecks that they desperately need. But yes, we can beat this. And we will.

RE: We can beat this! - Mick - 03-18-2020

I think by definition we'll end up beating it, once herd immunity becomes the order of the day.

Two items that make me pause: the most politically connected person I know says that if hoarding and shortages worsen any further, the governors of some major states will call out the National Guard to administer food distribution. Now I don't know if that means an armed soldier in front of every Costco teller line, but it doesn't sound good.

Secondly, there were 1,748 new infections in the USA (with 109 deaths) in the second to the last measurable 24 hour period, and 2,587 new cases with 150 new deaths in the most recent 24 hours. Not good.

RE: We can beat this! - BostonCard - 03-18-2020

Things are going to look bad for a while. As I mentioned before, what we are seeing now reflects infections that were transmitted 1 to 2 weeks ago. Moreover, because of the delay in testing there are a lot of people who were infected who just never got tested.

South Korea passed emergency measures to contain the virus on Feb 21, when the daily count of new cases hit 98. The case count peaked 12 days later on March 3 at 851. They've been coming down since then.

BC

RE: We can beat this! - burger - 03-18-2020

(03-18-2020, 03:21 PM)Mick Wrote: I think by definition we'll end up beating it, once herd immunity becomes the order of the day.

Two items that make me pause: the most politically connected person I know says that if hoarding and shortages worsen any further, the governors of some major states will call out the National Guard to administer food distribution. Now I don't know if that means an armed soldier in front of every Costco teller line, but it doesn't sound good.

Secondly, there were 1,748 new infections in the USA (with 109 deaths) in the second to the last measurable 24 hour period, and 2,587 new cases with 150 new deaths in the most recent 24 hours. Not good.

If social distancing measures start to work, it won't become obvious for ~10 days or more. Because we're not doing widespread testing, it's about 10 days from infection to when symptoms become severe enough to seek testing or care. So, there is a 10-ish-day backlog of cases waiting to crop up.

That, plus, testing is still ramping up in a lot of places so numbers are increasing as more tests get done.

So, numbers are probably going to get vastly worse before they improve. I believe two days ago we added ~1,000 cases (can't find the tracking site I was looking at). So, new cases are increasing by ~800 per day. That means we're about 9 days away from getting 10,000 new cases per day. That's exponential growth for you.

On a more positive note, I'm not too worried about the food situation. Stores could easily put purchase limits into place. And supposedly the food supply is not in question--people are just buying too much at once.

RE: We can beat this! - martyup - 03-18-2020

(03-18-2020, 03:21 PM)Mick Wrote: I think by definition we'll end up beating it, once herd immunity becomes the order of the day.

Two items that make me pause: the most politically connected person I know says that if hoarding and shortages worsen any further, the governors of some major states will call out the National Guard to administer food distribution. Now I don't know if that means an armed soldier in front of every Costco teller line, but it doesn't sound good.

Secondly, there were 1,748 new infections in the USA (with 109 deaths) in the second to the last measurable 24 hour period, and 2,587 new cases with 150 new deaths in the most recent 24 hours. Not good.

Where do you get these numbers? Johns Hopkins and the CDC are saying that the USA only has 118 deaths from Covid-19 to date.

This site says the USA has had 150 deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 03-18-2020

Some small things...

We have put up a note on our porch thanking all the guys and gals at fedex, ups, usps who are delivering the things we need. Amazingly on time and in good shape.

We have put up an American flag. Not to be political, but to signal that we’re all in this together, and that the generations that came before us had some pretty tough challenges too. This is our time.

Some neighbors have put up art work outside, maybe even kids drawings, for people to see/enjoy as they walk the dog or get some exercise.

I have emailed my docs nurse and receptionist. Just to thank them for all they’re doing. They are on the front lines and must be incredibly stressed and tired. Told them not to respond. Didnt want to take their time. They were very appreciative anyway. Their emails dripped with emotion.

RE: We can beat this! - cardcrimson - 03-18-2020

Four anecdotal comments from contacts in China:

A Chinese supplier to the company where my wife works has been back at work for weeks and is sending surgical masks and hand sanitizer.

A Chinese supplier to a client's company, that imports most of their product from China, is sending 2000 surgical masks to his firm. They're back at capacity.

A expat friend of a friend (British, 70plus in age), mentioned just today that much is back to normal in China. He's healthy, too boot.

A Chinese college student friend of mine shared that most schools have reopened, tho he's still taking classes online. Factories are back up and running, and everything seems back to normal, except most are still wearing masks (he added a LOL to that).

And I'm sure you're all aware that Apple reopened all their retail stores in China last week. . . .

RE: We can beat this! - BostonCard - 03-18-2020

(03-18-2020, 07:36 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: And I'm sure you're all aware that Apple reopened all their retail stores in China last week. . .

...as it closed them everywhere else in the world. I think your anecdotal reports comport to the data we've seen, and though I think some cases are being hidden (as my understanding is that local officials are being judged by whether new cases emerge, so there is a push to hide new cases or to link them to hotspots such as Italy), I think the severe quarantine has been loosened, and things are slowly gearing up. That would be another data point suggesting that the infection can be brought under control, though as I've repeatedly stated I would hardly hold the CCP as a model to emulate.

BC

RE: We can beat this! - stupac2 - 03-19-2020

(03-18-2020, 07:36 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Four anecdotal comments from contacts in China:

A Chinese supplier to the company where my wife works has been back at work for weeks and is sending surgical masks and hand sanitizer.

A Chinese supplier to a client's company, that imports most of their product from China, is sending 2000 surgical masks to his firm. They're back at capacity.

A expat friend of a friend (British, 70plus in age), mentioned just today that much is back to normal in China. He's healthy, too boot.

A Chinese college student friend of mine shared that most schools have reopened, tho he's still taking classes online. Factories are back up and running, and everything seems back to normal, except most are still wearing masks (he added a LOL to that).

And I'm sure you're all aware that Apple reopened all their retail stores in China last week. . . .

One of my company's biggest customers is in China and we've been shipping them as much as we can after the SiP order came through. When we told them the offered to send us masks and sanitizer.

RE: We can beat this! - cardcrimson - 03-19-2020

Agree completely re China. At least six weeks of lying to the world, and another four of trying to downplay it. . . .Saw a report yesterday that if they had locked down Wuhan just three weeks earlier, they would have had 5% of the cases they did and wouldn't have been sending 10000 people per day on flights to the US.

However, even there, they are recovering and offering to send our people help. . . .importantly, it's not the government offering, it's the citizens.

(03-18-2020, 08:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 07:36 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: And I'm sure you're all aware that Apple reopened all their retail stores in China last week. . .

...as it closed them everywhere else in the world. I think your anecdotal reports comport to the data we've seen, and though I think some cases are being hidden (as my understanding is that local officials are being judged by whether new cases emerge, so there is a push to hide new cases or to link them to hotspots such as Italy), I think the severe quarantine has been loosened, and things are slowly gearing up. That would be another data point suggesting that the infection can be brought under control, though as I've repeatedly stated I would hardly hold the CCP as a model to emulate.

BC

RE: We can beat this! - burger - 03-19-2020

(03-18-2020, 03:41 PM)burger Wrote: So, numbers are probably going to get vastly worse before they improve. I believe two days ago we added ~1,000 cases (can't find the tracking site I was looking at). So, new cases are increasing by ~800 per day. That means we're about 9 days away from getting 10,000 new cases per day. That's exponential growth for you.

Yesterday (Wednesday), I said that we were 9 days from adding 10,000 cases a day.

Today (Thursday), we added 5,000 cases.

So I was wrong. We're not going to be adding 10,000 cases a day in 9 days. It'll probably be this weekend. *****.

RE: We can beat this! - chrisk - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 07:29 PM)burger Wrote:
(03-18-2020, 03:41 PM)burger Wrote: So, numbers are probably going to get vastly worse before they improve. I believe two days ago we added ~1,000 cases (can't find the tracking site I was looking at). So, new cases are increasing by ~800 per day. That means we're about 9 days away from getting 10,000 new cases per day. That's exponential growth for you.
Yesterday (Wednesday), I said that we were 9 days from adding 10,000 cases a day.

Today (Thursday), we added 5,000 cases.

So I was wrong. We're not going to be added 10,000 cases a day in 9 days. It'll probably be this weekend. *****.

The number of new cases in CA has been stable the last 3 days. Tonight the entire state goes to shelter-in-place.

Taiwan says it will be shipping 100,000 masks per week to the US. They have switched prison labor from making prison uniforms to masks.

RE: We can beat this! - Farm93 - 03-19-2020

I hope closing the schools knocked down the community spread.

Most families in the USA now have their social network defined by their children's school, after school activities, etc. So stopping the youth activities was big. However, adults then crowded into stores last weekend to buy supplies for their stuck at home kids. Hopefully there won't be a mini-surge next week in hospital cases since there was a lot of opportunity for community spread in that panic buying.

Most on this board will lose some of their net worth in this battle and that sucks. However others in our communities will fear lose their homes and cars in addition to staying unemployed for a long duration. It will be hard for everyone, but based on the Spanish Flu lessons the CA Governor is making the appropriate public health decision.

Actually a touch proud that our State is once again leading the way. It may be too late for the USA to have the results Japan and South Korea experienced, but until the last few days we were not even doing as much as Italy and Spain.

Stay safe...try to stay productive.

RE: We can beat this! - chrisk - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 08:03 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I hope closing the schools knocked down the community spread.

Most families in the USA now have their social network defined by their children's school, after school activities, etc. So stopping the youth activities was big. However, adults then crowded into stores last weekend to buy supplies for their stuck at home kids. Hopefully there won't be a mini-surge next week in hospital cases since there was a lot of opportunity for community spread in that panic buying.

Most on this board will lose some of their net worth in this battle and that sucks. However others in our communities will fear lose their homes and cars in addition to staying unemployed for a long duration. It will be hard for everyone, but based on the Spanish Flu lessons the CA Governor is making the appropriate public health decision.

Actually a touch proud that our State is once again leading the way. It may be too late for the USA to have the results Japan and South Korea experienced, but until the last few days we were not even doing as much as Italy and Spain.

Stay safe...try to stay productive.

The Republicans who fought so hard against income and wealth redistribution, will ironically preside over a much larger redistribution than Democrats dreamed of (except Sanders and Warren), but the Republican redistribution will be much more messy, inefficient, and unfair.

Just a week ago, some people were resisting the idea of Disneyland closing. That seems like it was months ago because it was so belated in hindsight.

RE: We can beat this! - BostonCard - 03-19-2020

At the risk of taking this in a very political direction...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/4nextgenofusa/status/1240803944168927239?s=21[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/robertfaturechi/status/1240746141236359168?s=21[/tweet]

These two happen to be Republicans but I would be shocked if there weren’t also democratic senators who didn’t dump all their stock after getting private briefings about the incipient pandemic. In Barr’s case it is worse because he was publicly stating that it’s no big deal while privately selling his stock.

BC

RE: We can beat this! - chrisk - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 08:30 PM)BostonCard Wrote: At the risk of taking this in a very political direction...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/4nextgenofusa/status/1240803944168927239?s=21[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/robertfaturechi/status/1240746141236359168?s=21[/tweet]

These two happen to be Republicans but I would be shocked if there weren’t also democratic senators who didn’t dump all their stock after getting private briefings about the incipient pandemic. In Barr’s case it is worse because he was publicly stating that it’s no big deal while privately selling his stock.

BC

Best penalty would be to diallow them from buying any stock for the rest of their terms.

RE: We can beat this! - 2006alum - 03-19-2020

The thread creep in this COVID-19 corner of the Cardboard is pretty amusing - unless the "this" in "we can beat this" == "Republican incumbents in Georgia and North Carolina." I suspect they will not have the privilege to represent their great states come January 2021, because the optics alone are appalling. The fact that Burr voted against the STOCK Act in 2012 only adds fuel to the fire.

RE: We can beat this! - BostonCard - 03-19-2020

Burr is not up for re-election; Loeffler is.

I’m sure they aren’t the last.

BC