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The next hotspot - BostonCard - 03-18-2020

Indonesia just reported 12 deaths (they had reported about 170 cases and 7 deaths until now).  I view coronavirus deaths as the tip of the iceberg.  For every death, there were probably about 20 - 50 cases (depending on what you believe is the mortality rate) two or three weeks ago.  That's enough for up to three doublings, so my guess is that Indonesia is currently looking at ~4000 cases right now, of which only 227 have been reported.

BC

RE: The next hotspot - qwerty49 - 03-18-2020

(03-18-2020, 04:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Indonesia just reported 12 deaths (they had reported about 170 cases and 7 deaths until now).  I view coronavirus deaths as the tip of the iceberg.  For every death, there were probably about 20 - 50 cases (depending on what you believe is the mortality rate) two or three weeks ago.  That's enough for up to three doublings, so my guess is that Indonesia is currently looking at ~4000 cases right now, of which only 227 have been reported.

BC

I find it hard to believe that India only has 300 cases, given the population/density.

RE: The next hotspot - fullmetal - 03-18-2020

I wonder if the elderly face barriers to hospital access?  Surely Indian doctors are aware of Covid-19 and would be on the look out for flu-negative illnesses presenting with flu symptoms...

RE: The next hotspot - akiddoc - 03-18-2020

(03-18-2020, 10:23 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 04:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Indonesia just reported 12 deaths (they had reported about 170 cases and 7 deaths until now).  I view coronavirus deaths as the tip of the iceberg.  For every death, there were probably about 20 - 50 cases (depending on what you believe is the mortality rate) two or three weeks ago.  That's enough for up to three doublings, so my guess is that Indonesia is currently looking at ~4000 cases right now, of which only 227 have been reported.

BC
Eventually, I expect more deaths in India than anywhere else. But many will not be documented. For many Indians, access to healthcare is very rudimentary. The poverty and population density is staggering. 
I find it hard to believe that India only has 300 cases, given the population/density.


RE: The next hotspot - cardcrimson - 03-19-2020

(03-18-2020, 11:18 PM)akiddoc Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 10:23 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 04:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Indonesia just reported 12 deaths (they had reported about 170 cases and 7 deaths until now).  I view coronavirus deaths as the tip of the iceberg.  For every death, there were probably about 20 - 50 cases (depending on what you believe is the mortality rate) two or three weeks ago.  That's enough for up to three doublings, so my guess is that Indonesia is currently looking at ~4000 cases right now, of which only 227 have been reported.

BC
Eventually, I expect more deaths in India than anywhere else. But many will not be documented. For many Indians, access to healthcare is very rudimentary. The poverty and population density is staggering. 
I find it hard to believe that India only has 300 cases, given the population/density.

Was thinking India too. . . .
Mexico could pose an issue for the US if and when it goes badly there.

RE: The next hotspot - Mick - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 08:46 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 11:18 PM)akiddoc Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 10:23 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  
(03-18-2020, 04:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Indonesia just reported 12 deaths (they had reported about 170 cases and 7 deaths until now).  I view coronavirus deaths as the tip of the iceberg.  For every death, there were probably about 20 - 50 cases (depending on what you believe is the mortality rate) two or three weeks ago.  That's enough for up to three doublings, so my guess is that Indonesia is currently looking at ~4000 cases right now, of which only 227 have been reported.

BC
Eventually, I expect more deaths in India than anywhere else. But many will not be documented. For many Indians, access to healthcare is very rudimentary. The poverty and population density is staggering. 
I find it hard to believe that India only has 300 cases, given the population/density.

Was thinking India too. . . .
Mexico could pose an issue for the US if and when it goes badly there.

U. S. Canadian border was just closed.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/u-s-canada-agree-close-border-non-essential-traffic-trump-n1162796

I imagine U. S. / Mexican border is next.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-travel-us-mexico-border-restrictions-expected.html