All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Printable Version
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All of CA goes shelter-in-place - chrisk - 03-19-2020
state looking for hotel rooms for health care workers
hotels to be used for housing homeless
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - cardcrimson - 03-19-2020
Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - chrisk - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.
:ow inflation has concerned the Fed for 10 years. Next year, they can ratchet up interest rates, depending on how much the taxes on the rich are raised to help finance the trillions of spending to support the unemployed and underemployed.
US inflation was 18.1% in 1946 and 8.8% in 1947 after it was suppressed during WWII.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Snorlax94 - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.I disagree. CA is entering a critical phase. Makes sense to have consistent rules actoss the state. As long as the list of essential businesses are right (everything related to food production and delivery, for one), hopefully CA emerges in a few weeks like China has. But for it to work and have any lasting benefit we need to have widespread testing running at the end of it.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - cardcrimson - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 08:12 PM)chrisk Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.
:ow inflation has concerned the Fed for 10 years. Next year, they can ratchet up interest rates, depending on how much the taxes on the rich are raised to help finance the trillions of spending to support the unemployed and underemployed.
US inflation was 18.1% in 1946 and 8.8% in 1947 after it was suppressed during WWII.
Do you understand the concept of stagflation? The economy is in the toilet and prices are skyrocketing. With no one working in CA the economy will tank, and with no one producing food (CA is the largest producer of food in the US), the price to eat will soar. Wonderful.
(03-19-2020, 08:24 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.I disagree. CA is entering a critical phase. Makes sense to have consistent rules actoss the state. As long as the list of essential businesses are right (everything related to food production and delivery, for one), hopefully CA emerges in a few weeks like China has. But for it to work and have any lasting benefit we need to have widespread testing running at the end of it.
I wish I had your optimism in our leadership. A few weeks? Newsom just yesterday postulated that he expects that the schools are done for the academic year. That's more than two months. Today he's sounding the alarm that 26 million Californians will have the virus in that time; that's 325 times more than what the entire country of China has experienced. . . .
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Goose - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 08:24 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: But for it to work and have any lasting benefit we need to have widespread testing running at the end of it.Not quite. We need to have good old fashioned epidemiology running at the end of it. The ability to test is an important part of that, but without the rest of it, contact tracing, finding sources of infection, etc. widespread testing will be ineffective. You need to test the right people, not people at random. That is what Korea has done, and it appears to work. It isn't perfect, but it allows society to function while containing the virus.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - akiddoc - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 08:27 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-19-2020, 08:12 PM)chrisk Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.
:ow inflation has concerned the Fed for 10 years. Next year, they can ratchet up interest rates, depending on how much the taxes on the rich are raised to help finance the trillions of spending to support the unemployed and underemployed.
US inflation was 18.1% in 1946 and 8.8% in 1947 after it was suppressed during WWII.
Do you understand the concept of stagflation? The economy is in the toilet and prices are skyrocketing. With no one working in CA the economy will tank, and with no one producing food (CA is the largest producer of food in the US), the price to eat will soar. Wonderful.
(03-19-2020, 08:24 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.I disagree. CA is entering a critical phase. Makes sense to have consistent rules actoss the state. As long as the list of essential businesses are right (everything related to food production and delivery, for one), hopefully CA emerges in a few weeks like China has. But for it to work and have any lasting benefit we need to have widespread testing running at the end of it.
I wish I had your optimism in our leadership. A few weeks? Newsom just yesterday postulated that he expects that the schools are done for the academic year. That's more than two months. Today he's sounding the alarm that 26 million Californians will have the virus in that time; that's 325 times more than what the entire country of China has experienced. . . .
We're going to have far, far more cases than China. There are 2 factors that enabled the Chinese to stop it before it overran the country. A totalitarian government and a culture of cooperation. Not what most us want as our usual way of living but very effective for cutting off a large section of the country and forcing people to stay away from everyone else.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - cardcrimson - 03-19-2020
(03-19-2020, 09:43 PM)akiddoc Wrote:(03-19-2020, 08:27 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-19-2020, 08:12 PM)chrisk Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.
:ow inflation has concerned the Fed for 10 years. Next year, they can ratchet up interest rates, depending on how much the taxes on the rich are raised to help finance the trillions of spending to support the unemployed and underemployed.
US inflation was 18.1% in 1946 and 8.8% in 1947 after it was suppressed during WWII.
Do you understand the concept of stagflation? The economy is in the toilet and prices are skyrocketing. With no one working in CA the economy will tank, and with no one producing food (CA is the largest producer of food in the US), the price to eat will soar. Wonderful.
(03-19-2020, 08:24 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(03-19-2020, 07:59 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Time to go long on food futures and gold. Gavin just set off a period of significant "stagflation". Brilliant.I disagree. CA is entering a critical phase. Makes sense to have consistent rules actoss the state. As long as the list of essential businesses are right (everything related to food production and delivery, for one), hopefully CA emerges in a few weeks like China has. But for it to work and have any lasting benefit we need to have widespread testing running at the end of it.
I wish I had your optimism in our leadership. A few weeks? Newsom just yesterday postulated that he expects that the schools are done for the academic year. That's more than two months. Today he's sounding the alarm that 26 million Californians will have the virus in that time; that's 325 times more than what the entire country of China has experienced. . . .
We're going to have far, far more cases than China. There are 2 factors that enabled the Chinese to stop it before it overran the country. A totalitarian government and a culture of cooperation. Not what most us want as our usual way of living but very effective for cutting off a large section of the country and forcing people to stay away from everyone else.
Thus far, pretty totalitarian in the Bay Area. Alameda County Sheriffs facing off with Elon Musk. . . .We shall see. Remember, the Chinese said there was nothing to worry about, until they close off Wuhan after a couple of months. . . .
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - magnus - 03-20-2020
What's the guideline for going to work/ staying open? I know someone who works on the manufacturing floor of a company that makes storage devices. Apparently they've been told that they can stay open, and so you have all these workers cramming into a change room daily before working in clean rooms.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Farm93 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 09:36 AM)magnus Wrote: What's the guideline for going to work/ staying open? I know someone who works on the manufacturing floor of a company that makes storage devices. Apparently they've been told that they can stay open, and so you have all these workers cramming into a change room daily before working in clean rooms.I personally would feel OK about working all day in a clean room. That change room area would be harder for the reasons you note. However, on the Governor's list of essential services a storage equipment company just doesn't make the cut.
I get it at some level. Every company believes what they do is essential. The storage devices are used in computers. The computers are used by health care workers and government employees. Those essential employees need computers and therefore need us.
The State of NY was much clearer about the list of companies and clearly are ready to implement fines. I think that real threat of financial penalties would help a lot of companies understand the definition of essential.
Governor Newsom will need to really clamp down on non-compliance because if he doesn't companies and their employees will just ignore the order.
Italy is now #1 on the death list, but the USA will easily become #1 given our ineffective, inconsistent and incomplete response.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 82 Card - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 09:36 AM)magnus Wrote: What's the guideline for going to work/ staying open? I know someone who works on the manufacturing floor of a company that makes storage devices. Apparently they've been told that they can stay open, and so you have all these workers cramming into a change room daily before working in clean rooms.
i Have not found a copy of the state order. According to SFGate, the state order is identical to the ones issued by the Bay Area counties, which are available at the county health departments. The San Francisco order is here.
The orders exempt activities that are necessary to facilitate distance working, learning, communication, etc. The storage devices may be considered as necessary for keeping all the networks running under increased load. However, they are required to maintain distancing. The crowded change room would be a violation.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - terry - 03-20-2020
Workers in certain "critical infrastructure" areas are exempt from the stay-at-home order. That includes some workers in information technology, critical manufacturing, and the defense industry, one of which might be relevant to the storage device company mentioned in this thread.
There's also an exemption for food and agriculture, so Newsom's order shouldn't affect food production, which someone raised earlier.
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/
Newsom order -- https://covid19.ca.gov/img/Executive-Order-N-33-20.pdf
Memo referenced in Newsom order (includes details about critical infrastructure workers) -- https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CISA-Guidance-on-Essential-Critical-Infrastructure-Workers-1-20-508c.pdf
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Farm93 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 11:29 AM)terry Wrote: Workers in certain "critical infrastructure" areas are exempt from the stay-at-home order. That includes some workers in information technology, critical manufacturing, and the defense industry, one of which might be relevant to the storage device company mentioned in this thread.Essential services is just too vague for the USA.
There's also an exemption for food and agriculture, so Newsom's order shouldn't affect food production, which someone raised earlier.
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/
Newsom order -- https://covid19.ca.gov/img/Executive-Order-N-33-20.pdf
Memo referenced in Newsom order -- https://www.cisa.gov/publication/guidance-essential-critical-infrastructure-workforce
My quick OC neighborhood walk of my dog implies that something close to 50% of the vehicles that normally leave the local streets on workdays have left today too. Sure, in theory, some are medical professionals but most are in support services roles (consulting, accounting, marketing, etc.). My guess is compliance is not where it needs to be for this to work. Sigh....
I think NY did a better job. Telling companies to go from 100% to 50% forced them to really figure out which employees were not required to be at the facility to maintain the business in the short-term (marketing, HR, finance, supply chain mgmt, etc.). The baby step got most companies to realize they should comply. Hard to argue that marketing, sales training types would really need to come to the facility. Then when the Governor told them to stop completely two days later the companies had already identified themselves by taking steps in the first step down.
As I was walking back I saw a lawn maintenance crew driving to their next house. Again, essential is in the eye of the beholder if not well defined.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 2006alum - 03-20-2020
I suspect there'd be much higher rates of compliance if robust sick leave, paid time off, short-term zero-interest business loans, etc. were all already in place. The problem right now is that the authorities (across all levels) are asking people to take a brobdingnagian economic hit without yet putting into place the safety net. If and when people feel like they'll have a job to come back to, or a paycheck while they are sitting at home, they will be more comfortable sheltering in place.
Put it this way: if you think there's a very realistic possibility that once you stop going to work you may not have an income stream for months to follow, how likely are you to do so? And for small business owners who still have demand for their services, each day you stay open and collect revenue is a day you don't have to lay off employees and watch your business start to circle the drain.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 82 Card - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 11:29 AM)terry Wrote: Workers in certain "critical infrastructure" areas are exempt from the stay-at-home order. That includes some workers in information technology, critical manufacturing, and the defense industry, one of which might be relevant to the storage device company mentioned in this thread.
There's also an exemption for food and agriculture, so Newsom's order shouldn't affect food production, which someone raised earlier.
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/
Newsom order -- https://covid19.ca.gov/img/Executive-Order-N-33-20.pdf
Memo referenced in Newsom order (includes details about critical infrastructure workers) -- https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CISA-Guidance-on-Essential-Critical-Infrastructure-Workers-1-20-508c.pdf
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that SFGate had it wrong. The state order is not at all like the county orders. Although the state order allows leaving the home to work on critical infrastructure, it doesn't provide for leaving the home to use any of that infrastructure. If the plumbing breaks in your bunker, your SOL. On the other hand, if you are incritical infrastructure, no need to social distance. Look for a revised order soon.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - chrisk - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 12:41 PM)82 Card Wrote:(03-20-2020, 11:29 AM)terry Wrote: Workers in certain "critical infrastructure" areas are exempt from the stay-at-home order. That includes some workers in information technology, critical manufacturing, and the defense industry, one of which might be relevant to the storage device company mentioned in this thread.
There's also an exemption for food and agriculture, so Newsom's order shouldn't affect food production, which someone raised earlier.
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/
Newsom order -- https://covid19.ca.gov/img/Executive-Order-N-33-20.pdf
Memo referenced in Newsom order (includes details about critical infrastructure workers) -- https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CISA-Guidance-on-Essential-Critical-Infrastructure-Workers-1-20-508c.pdf
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that SFGate had it wrong. The state order is not at all like the county orders. Although the state order allows leaving the home to work on critical infrastructure, it doesn't provide for leaving the home to use any of that infrastructure. If the plumbing breaks in your bunker, your SOL. On the other hand, if you are incritical infrastructure, no need to social distance. Look for a revised order soon.
If you look under Public Works, plumbers are OK:
Workers such as plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that
are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - terry - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 12:41 PM)82 Card Wrote: I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that SFGate had it wrong. The state order is not at all like the county orders. Although the state order allows leaving the home to work on critical infrastructure, it doesn't provide for leaving the home to use any of that infrastructure. If the plumbing breaks in your bunker, your SOL. On the other hand, if you are incritical infrastructure, no need to social distance. Look for a revised order soon.
Newsom's order is not as well drafted as the orders issued by the Bay Area counties. It would benefit from some clarification. But it at least mentions that people need to leave home to obtain essential services and it does provide for social distancing. Specifically, the order says:
"The supply chain must continue, and Californians must have access to such necessities as food, prescriptions, and health care. When people need to leave their homes or places of residence, whether to obtain or perform the functions above, or to otherwise facilitate authorized necessary activities, they should at all times practice social distancing."
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Farm93 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 01:10 PM)terry Wrote:Remember California was the first state to dare imply the federal government is not doing enough. Now New York & Illinois have stay at home orders too. If Governor Cuomo is correct NJ, CT, PA and DE will join the list. If the list of states with stay at home includes those seven states then I would expect them to align and strengthen the order a bit now that they have some safety in numbers.(03-20-2020, 12:41 PM)82 Card Wrote: I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that SFGate had it wrong. The state order is not at all like the county orders. Although the state order allows leaving the home to work on critical infrastructure, it doesn't provide for leaving the home to use any of that infrastructure. If the plumbing breaks in your bunker, your SOL. On the other hand, if you are incritical infrastructure, no need to social distance. Look for a revised order soon.
Newsom's order is not as well drafted as the orders issued by the Bay Area counties. It would benefit from some clarification. But it at least mention the need to leave home to obtain essential services and it does provide for social distancing. Specifically, the order says:
"The supply chain must continue, and Californians must have access to such necessities as food, prescriptions, and health care. When people need to leave their homes or places of residence, whether to obtain or perform the functions above, or to otherwise facilitate authorized necessary activities, they should at all times practice social distancing."
Way too many exceptions out there right now. A new bridge, paving a road, or laying down a new fiber optic line should not qualify. Yes, all are infrastructure, but none are essential to keeping the existing infrastructure operational for the ~4 weeks the Governors are targetting.
Sadly the states lack the ability to do a lot of the income replacement that would assist in compliance.
Given the stay at home orders covering so many I would expect the government to push out a lot of money in Q2. Unemployment extending for 99 weeks, or several thousand to 2018 taxpayers, or even providing some form of social security disability payments to all of those without COVID-19 immunity. The European nations are getting much better compliance for a number of reasons. Cash is the quickest way to get Americans to replicate that behavior.
That cash infusion would ordinarily be inflationary, but won't be the case in this situation since many will not get other income in Q2. Also even those that get other Q2 income will not exactly be rushing back to discretionary spending in Q3 as social distancing and limited travel will still need to be practiced until a vaccine is introduced in 2021.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - BostonCard - 03-20-2020
Illinois has joined California in issuing a "stay at home" order.
BC
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 82 Card - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 01:10 PM)terry Wrote:(03-20-2020, 12:41 PM)82 Card Wrote: I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that SFGate had it wrong. The state order is not at all like the county orders. Although the state order allows leaving the home to work on critical infrastructure, it doesn't provide for leaving the home to use any of that infrastructure. If the plumbing breaks in your bunker, your SOL. On the other hand, if you are incritical infrastructure, no need to social distance. Look for a revised order soon.
Newsom's order is not as well drafted as the orders issued by the Bay Area counties. It would benefit from some clarification. But it at least mention the need to leave home to obtain essential services and it does provide for social distancing. Specifically, the order says:
"The supply chain must continue, and Californians must have access to such necessities as food, prescriptions, and health care. When people need to leave their homes or places of residence, whether to obtain or perform the functions above, or to otherwise facilitate authorized necessary activities, they should at all times practice social distancing."
OK. I read too fast. But the order is still a mess. The only examples of leaving the home are for food, prescriptions and healthcare. It leaves one wondering whether other necessities are close enough. Can you go to the hardware store to fix your own plumbing? Getting a part for the computer you use to work from home isn't very close to the examples. Sure, I could construct an argument for all sorts of things. Your computer is part of the network infrastructure if you want to look at it that way and the CIS site doesn't say the plumber has to be licensed so I'm a plumber now. I could also argue that when the order refers to accessing the above services it includes the entire list of critical infrastructure, not just what is above in the same paragraph. However, I cannot believe that, with an example of better writing readily available, the Governor put out such a sloppy order.