Possible correlation to warm/humid - Printable Version
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Possible correlation to warm/humid - magnus - 03-22-2020
Paper from MIT exploring the relationship between temperature/humidity and Covid19.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998
Everything is still preliminary but at least it's a possible ray of sunshine that the virus may be less effective as summer approaches.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - Durty Nelly - 03-22-2020
Tell that to Australia. Seems to be taking hold there.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - Farm93 - 03-22-2020
(03-22-2020, 02:58 PM)Durty Nelly Wrote: Tell that to Australia. Seems to be taking hold there.Last I checked Spain and Italy are rather warm parts of Europe. Brazil has a bit of a problem and I don't think I have ever been to Brazil when it is not hot and humid. If we need it to be hotter and more humid than Brazil then those of us in CA are screwed.
They found a correlation, likely driven by the idea that Wuhan was cold in January and February but warmer in March. I tend to suspect correlation is vastly different than causation here. They ran some statistical analysis, found a correlation and got that published.
Even they had to note that all they have is an interesting correlation.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - burger - 03-22-2020
I think this is a good example of an analysis being done with too little data to be useful. Because of country differences in testing frequency, containment, etc., it's somewhere between misleading and totally wrong to compare case loads between countries.
A far better comparison would involve comparing rate of spread in the same cities/countries at different times of year. But that's going to be contaminated by containment measures that are going to place as well as herd immunity. So I'm skeptical that we'll be able to answer this question with any rigor in the near future.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - BostonCard - 03-22-2020
Experts in coronavirus summer say there are weak temperature effects on the seasonality of infection. This is, of course, a novel coronavirus so we don’t know for sure, but we shouldn’t count on warmer northern hemisphere temperatures as a panacea.
BC
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - M T - 03-22-2020
in a 2011 study of SARS-COV-1 (not the current virus, but related) that measured its persistence over time in 28C(82F), 33C(91F), 38C(100F),
the conclusion was
Quote:SARS CoV is a stable virus that may potentially be transmitted by indirect contact or fomites, especially in air-conditioned environments....
The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments.
However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%).
To my eyes, the 100F temperature degraded the virus much more rapidly, while the 82F and 91F were very much the same.
Higher humidity degraded the virus more.
So, yes, our cool, dry summers may not hamper this virus. Air conditioning will be even more conducive to its survival.
SARS-COV-1 is different that SARS-COV-2. Another report comparing the survival of the two on different surfaces found
Quote:Our findings show that the stability of HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental 51 circumstances tested is similar.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - dabigv13 - 03-22-2020
A small difference in transmission could still make a big difference in deaths, and just because it is present and spreading in warmer climates doesn't mean that the growth curves couldn't look very different.
Need to wait for more data, but I think this will be partially borne out. Of course, with a novel virus without any immunity, any reduced transmission in summer will be made up again later in absence of other measures such as a vaccine or effective therapy. I'm just hoping reduced transmission in summer buys us some time to get in place truly universal testing and tracking programs, but I'm doubtful we could do that well even if given infinite time.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - cardcrimson - 03-22-2020
Allegedly, viruses typically don't like heat. So the summer could be a good thing, perhaps. Even in California, the temps may hit upper 90's to the low 100s in the afternoon, then cool to the 50s at night. It may help.
Odd that global warming may help. . . .
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - Snorlax94 - 03-22-2020
(03-22-2020, 05:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Allegedly, viruses typically don't like heat. So the summer could be a good thing, perhaps. Even in California, the temps may hit upper 90's to the low 100s in the afternoon, then cool to the 50s at night. It may help.Global warming certainly won’t help California if there are massive forest fires this fall like the previous two years.
Odd that global warming may help. . . .
Just imagine trying to fight fires while firefighters infect each other while emergency services are already stretched thin. Just imagine shelter in place without being able to go outside for a walk because of the smoke. The emergency rooms will be further overwhelmed by people. All the outdoor tent triages and makeshift hospital beds will be in smoky air. The combination of smoke, less exercise and the virus will make death rates for vulnerable groups rocket even higher. That is one of my double-whammy nightmare scenarios, and a pretty likely one.
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - magnus - 03-22-2020
Don't forget smoke without masks. =/
RE: Possible correlation to warm/humid - cardcrimson - 03-22-2020
(03-22-2020, 05:15 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(03-22-2020, 05:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Allegedly, viruses typically don't like heat. So the summer could be a good thing, perhaps. Even in California, the temps may hit upper 90's to the low 100s in the afternoon, then cool to the 50s at night. It may help.Global warming certainly won’t help California if there are massive forest fires this fall like the previous two years.
Odd that global warming may help. . . .
Just imagine trying to fight fires while firefighters infect each other while emergency services are already stretched thin. Just imagine shelter in place without being able to go outside for a walk because of the smoke. The emergency rooms will be further overwhelmed by people. All the outdoor tent triages and makeshift hospital beds will be in smoky air. The combination of smoke, less exercise and the virus will make death rates for vulnerable groups rocket even higher. That is one of my double-whammy nightmare scenarios, and a pretty likely one.
It was an attempt at humor. Sorry.
Climate change played only a small part in the fire disasters of the last few years, but that's a topic for a different board and a different time.