Minnesota - Printable Version
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Minnesota - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2020
I watched Minnesota’s Governor give a PPT presentation today. It was really well done, and incredibly insightful, albeit somewhat depressing.
What was most stunning to me was Minnesota doesn’t believe it can flatten the curve at all. It believes the only option available is to put off the curve’s peak from hitting 3 weeks later than it would if the state did nothing to mitigate spread. The state is putting a stay home order in place for two weeks just to give it more time to ramp up to deal with the volume it sees coming no matter what.
This was curious to me because I thought these social distancing measures were all designed to flatten the growth curve, not simply push it off a few weeks. And this is with only less than 300 reported cases as of this day.
Perhaps this means public health officials are baking in a 10x multiplier to confirmed cases, knowing how little testing is being done relative to population? Anyway, heres’s the link. I high
Y recommend watching the first 10 mins at least.
https://youtu.be/_OT5PaxGKvU
RE: Minnesota - JustAnotherFan - 03-25-2020
Only two scenarios? Why didn't they engage McKinsey/Bain/BCG so they could have three scenarios to choose from?
RE: Minnesota - oldalum - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 05:51 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: What was most stunning to me was Minnesota doesn’t believe it can flatten the curve at all. It believes the only option available is to put off the curve’s peak from hitting 3 weeks later than it would if the state did nothing to mitigate spread.important to define terms. I think "flatten the curve" usually is being used to refer to the plot of new infections/day. This presentation does not show such a graph; it appears to show a graph of prevalence of infected persons. I do not understand why their "significant mitigation" scenario results in the same steep prevalence curve and peak as the "no mitigation" scenario; it shouldn't. Can someone please explain? Thanks.
RE: Minnesota - Farm93 - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 07:25 PM)oldalum Wrote:(03-25-2020, 05:51 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: What was most stunning to me was Minnesota doesn’t believe it can flatten the curve at all. It believes the only option available is to put off the curve’s peak from hitting 3 weeks later than it would if the state did nothing to mitigate spread.important to define terms. I think "flatten the curve" usually is being used to refer to the plot of new infections/day. This presentation does not show such a graph; it appears to show a graph of prevalence of infected persons. I do not understand why their "significant mitigation" scenario results in the same steep prevalence curve and peak as the "no mitigation" scenario; it shouldn't. Can someone please explain? Thanks.
Mitigation efforts may only delay the ramp in some circumstances, though the best would delay ramp AND flatten the curve.
I think the Minnesota governor wanted to make sure that the citizens understand that the delay of the ramp-up alone justify the executive orders. That way if the ramp is ultimately steep and they are unable to place some patients into ICU beds, they can likely point to an increase in the number of ICU beds that saved at least a few more lives than the base case.
Minnesota nice is a real thing.
My guess is the government officials believe that merely delaying the ramp-up will be enough to get the citizens of Minnesota to comply. By focusing on the benefits of the delay the officials will not need to later justify the delay in that flatten the curve vs economic growth type debate.
In Minnesota they will note they made the call for efforts on the benefits of delaying the curve, and as long as a few more ICU beds are available 2 or 3 weeks later they will have the objective and easily quantifiable endpoint they need to justify their decision.
RE: Minnesota - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
One thing to note is that many of the shelter in place orders assume they will be lifted at some point, and at that point the outbreak comes roaring back. See this:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
However, there are ways, as outlined in the post above, to emulate what Korea is doing and use careful contact tracing to keep the epidemic under control even as you relax the shelter in place orders (the "dance" part of the "hammer and dance")
BC
RE: Minnesota - cardcrimson - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:25 PM)BostonCard Wrote: One thing to note is that many of the shelter in place orders assume they will be lifted at some point, and at that point the outbreak comes roaring back. See this:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
However, there are ways, as outlined in the post above, to emulate what Korea is doing and use careful contact tracing to keep the epidemic under control even as you relax the shelter in place orders (the "dance" part of the "hammer and dance")
BC
If I read that chart correctly, it seems that the spike will be the same regardless of the strategy. Am I missing something?
RE: Minnesota - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:46 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: If I read that chart correctly, it seems that the spike will be the same regardless of the strategy. Am I missing something?
You read it correctly. But it didn't show you the other strategy:
![[Image: 1*a9Lcz2g8DkKdnW0o_vk3ow.png]](https://miro.medium.com/max/6524/1*a9Lcz2g8DkKdnW0o_vk3ow.png)
It's long, but I'd recommend reading the entirety of the post. You will learn a lot (I know I did, and I had done an analysis on the SARS epidemic during my fellowship).
BC
RE: Minnesota - cardcrimson - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:Sent you a PM, not sure if it went through. Focusing on the both the hammer and the dance.(03-25-2020, 08:46 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: If I read that chart correctly, it seems that the spike will be the same regardless of the strategy. Am I missing something?
You read it correctly. But it didn't show you the other strategy:
It's long, but I'd recommend reading the entirety of the post. You will learn a lot (I know I did, and I had done an analysis on the SARS epidemic during my fellowship).
BC
RE: Minnesota - Goose - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:25 PM)BostonCard Wrote: However, there are ways, as outlined in the post above, to emulate what Korea is doing and use careful contact tracing to keep the epidemic under control even as you relax the shelter in place orders (the "dance" part of the "hammer and dance")This would be a good plan if we are ready to do the dance when we stop applying the hammer. We didn't have Korea's capabilities at the start, either at a national level or below. Do we now? Again, I haven't seen any evidence we are scrambling to improvise something. It may be going on behind the curtain, but that doesn't reassure me any. The Santa Clara County Medical Officer basically said she can't do it. Who will?
BC
RE: Minnesota - magnus - 03-25-2020
America's in trouble. I don't think an American contractor has come close to winning Dancing with the Stars. Drew Scott made it to the semis...but he's Canadian.
RE: Minnesota - 2006alum - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 09:16 PM)Goose Wrote: Again, I haven't seen any evidence we are scrambling to improvise something. It may be going on behind the curtain, but that doesn't reassure me any. The Santa Clara County Medical Officer basically said she can't do it. Who will?Rugged individualism!