India - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: India (/thread-19296.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: India (/thread-19296.html)
India - OutsiderFan - 04-01-2020
It seems India is a ticking time bomb the likes the world has yet to see. Anyone doubt India will ultimately surpass the U.S. in casualties from this outbreak?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1245212617397895168[/tweet]
RE: India - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 02:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It seems India is a ticking time bomb the likes the world has yet to see. Anyone doubt India will ultimately surpass the U.S. in casualties from this outbreak?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1245212617397895168[/tweet]
Lots of time bombs, India is just one. Syrian migrant camps in Turkey. All of the Gaza strip. Venezuela. Pretty much all of Africa. When this hits resource limited areas, where oxygen therapy, let alone ICU beds are at a premium, it is going to be a disaster, with fatality rates far in excess of what has already been seen.
BC
RE: India - 2006alum - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 02:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It seems India is a ticking time bomb the likes the world has yet to see. Anyone doubt India will ultimately surpass the U.S. in casualties from this outbreak?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1245212617397895168[/tweet]
OF, you and I seem to sweat in sync. For the past few days my worries have been shifting to Latin America, Africa, and South Asia - once this becomes an epidemic in those regions, it will be impossible to "get back to normal" unless we either have extremely effect testing, contact tracing, and isolation, or a vaccine. The developing world is going to be crushed by this and it will come roaring right back here, too.
Truly, now, if ever, is a time when we need credible coordinated worldwide leadership. Tragically, we probably have the worst set of world leaders to handle this since 1914.
RE: India - JustAnotherFan - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 04:29 PM)2006alum Wrote:(04-01-2020, 02:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It seems India is a ticking time bomb the likes the world has yet to see. Anyone doubt India will ultimately surpass the U.S. in casualties from this outbreak?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1245212617397895168[/tweet]
OF, you and I seem to sweat in sync. For the past few days my worries have been shifting to Latin America, Africa, and South Asia - once this becomes an epidemic in those regions, it will be impossible to "get back to normal" unless we either have extremely effect testing, contact tracing, and isolation, or a vaccine. The developing world is going to be crushed by this and it will come roaring right back here, too.
Truly, now, if ever, is a time when we need credible coordinated worldwide leadership. Tragically, we probably have the worst set of world leaders to handle this since 1914.
We're really going to see the worst side of people as the global south gets decimated by this, while the response by those world leaders you speak of will simply be to close the borders. It's going to be tragic.
RE: India - OutsiderFan - 04-02-2020
Hopefully this worldwide pandemic will put an end to the recent wave of populism that has infected global leadership. Here's Brazil digging mass graves while its President - infected with Covid-19 but totally incapable of seeing beyond himself or being honest - calls it just a flu.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/WanessaTatiani/status/1245785148764884998[/tweet]
RE: India - magnus - 04-02-2020
Saw the pence headline and just wanted to hijack this thread for a second.
Did anyone else find it ridiculous in the early going of our ramp when media and government officials were saying, "we're doing better than Italy". By it, i mean that our comparison point was such a tragic situation. So tragic that anything within even 50% of it should have still been considered tragic. Yet that was our barometer. Of course, we can't even say that now. =(
RE: India - 2006alum - 04-03-2020
The situation in Ecuador sounds horrific:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/davidluhnow/status/1246094564030468096?s=20[/tweet]
As if we had reason to doubt the data, both the Johns Hopkins and Worldometer estimates for Ecuador are 120 deaths total as of yesterday.
RE: India - oldalum - 04-03-2020
from the Chron today:
8:37 a.m. Dead bodies on streets in Ecuador after morgues fill up: Guayaquil, Ecuador is a hot spot for COVID-19 in Latin America, the Washington Post reports. Up to 150 corpses are picked up daily, the country’s El Universo newspaper reports. With morgues full, bodies wait on sidewalks and inside homes. “Every day it’s getting worse,” one man said. “We see them burning bodies on the street. Nobody is picking them up at the houses. … The only option is to leave their loved ones on the street or at the hospital (if they died there).”
RE: India - akiddoc - 04-03-2020
There are certain countries that might have been better off letting the virus run its course. India is one. How many are going to starve to death as the economy goes into the toilet. 10 million deaths from Corona virus vs 10 million starving to death? The starvation will be primarily the young. The Coronavirus the old.
RE: India - M T - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 02:50 PM)akiddoc Wrote: There are certain countries that might have been better off letting the virus run its course. India is one. How many are going to starve to death as the economy goes into the toilet. 10 million deaths from Corona virus vs 10 million starving to death? The starvation will be primarily the young. The Coronavirus the old.
Two studies estimated an adjusted age-based CFD from China's numbers and got vastly different numbers. If the infection affects 100% of India's population, and 50% are symptomatic, then, the CFD applied to India's demographics for that 50% would result in (study 1 0.73%) 5 million to (study 2 1.96%) 13.5 million deaths. Of course, as you and others have pointed out, if everyone gets sick at effectively once there would likely be many more deaths due to no effective health system.
In such a health system collapse, I would expect there would be civil unrest as people fight for resources (medicine, food, treatment) or just out of frustration. There might be many more deaths from that.
Those kind of numbers would raise the yearly death toll by roughly 20% to 45%, but all coming within a month or two. I could see that might cause more health issues.
RE: India - dabigv13 - 04-03-2020
I think it's very unlikely this virus, or most any virus, would infect 100% of people. Remember as more people get it and recover, the immunity they develop will reduce the speed of transmission. Probably 60 to 70% infected is a more realistic number for uncontrolled transmission without measures to reduce it.
RE: India - akiddoc - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 03:34 PM)M T Wrote:(04-03-2020, 02:50 PM)akiddoc Wrote: There are certain countries that might have been better off letting the virus run its course. India is one. How many are going to starve to death as the economy goes into the toilet. 10 million deaths from Corona virus vs 10 million starving to death? The starvation will be primarily the young. The Coronavirus the old.
Two studies estimated an adjusted age-based CFD from China's numbers and got vastly different numbers. If the infection affects 100% of India's population, and 50% are symptomatic, then, the CFD applied to India's demographics for that 50% would result in (study 1 0.73%) 5 million to (study 2 1.96%) 13.5 million deaths. Of course, as you and others have pointed out, if everyone gets sick at effectively once there would likely be many more deaths due to no effective health system.
In such a health system collapse, I would expect there would be civil unrest as people fight for resources (medicine, food, treatment) or just out of frustration. There might be many more deaths from that.
Those kind of numbers would raise the yearly death toll by roughly 20% to 45%, but all coming within a month or two. I could see that might cause more health issues.
The death rate percentage in India is going to be much higher. So many people are malnourished that the number of immunocompromised individuals is staggering. The health care system does not provide ICU care as an endpoint for those same people. They are going to die at home without oxygen, ventilation, inhalation or intravenous therapy.
RE: India - BostonCard - 04-03-2020
Exactly. In developing nations the death rate will approach the fraction of patients who require critical care. So, you are probably looking at about a 5% mortality, not a
SEIR predicts that a virus with an R0 of 2.2 or so will eventually infect about 80% of the population of left unchecked.
Back of the envelope calculation for a population of 1.4 billion is about 1 billion infected and 50 million deaths. If the fraction of asymptomatic individuals is higher you might be looking at "only" 10-20 million deaths.
BC