Awareness - Printable Version
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Awareness - Genuine Realist - 04-10-2020
Out of curiosity, and addressed to the medical professionals here, I am curious as to when your attitude towards C-19 changed from a characterization of one more seasonal flu, a problem, but no big deal, to the various serious threat to public health that it is.
I'll recount my own non-medical experience. I was aware of the problem in China in january, but as a distant phenomenon. I made no change to travel plans. Between February 21-24th, my wife and I were in New York on a theater trip. They were all crowded, without any inhibition. i ate breakfast at a place called Virgil's on 54th, a really terrific sports bar. The morning news mentioned c-19, maybe not yet names, as a third line story. No one was concerned.
As it happened, my PCP contacted me to arrange for a physical, as she hadn't seen me in a couple years. This was in late February, after the trip. This doctor is concerned about health conditions to the point of paranoia. But at the exam, in the first week of March, she shrugged it off - 'wash your hands, don't worry about it'. My daughter, a surgeon now in Pasadena, was equally sanguine.
All this changed in the second week, in a manner of days. My daughter received reports from her intensity unit that (in her words) 'scare me more every time I read them.' She phoned to in effect order me into an immediate quarantine. My wife is accustomed to socialize with the young children of the daughter of a close friend. The daughter is an ER doc. She canceled the socialization, informed my wife that she was pulling her twins out of day care, and advised the same quarantine. Etc., etc., etc.
My personal experience is thus that there was a change in attitude in a matter of days, with astonishing speed, in the second week of March. I am curious about others.
The point is not political. The point is that this social change has overtaken the nation and the world with incredible rapidity. I don't think it's at all digested yet. I don't think we even begin to understand the extent of all the repercussions. I don't share Mick's pessimism - there are going to be some good elements as well as bad. But the main point is that we have no comprehension at all of the full power of the transforming force that has been unleashed. It's all too big, too recent, and too fast.
The experience of others, particularly growing awareness, I would find interesting.
RE: Awareness - dabigv13 - 04-10-2020
Late January myself and a colleague from China were following the news with some alarm. Mid February I was starting to stockpile food and supplies and telling friends/family to start thinking about doing the same. Wish I pulled my retirement money but instead I just zeroed out my 401k contributions.
RE: Awareness - baymeadows3408 - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 08:47 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: My personal experience is thus that there was a change in attitude in a matter of days, with astonishing speed, in the second week of March. I am curious about others.
I was in a meeting on March 5 and I asked my supervisor if my academic program had any contingency plans in case COVID-19 arrived in our state, but I truly did not think that we would need to enact contingency plans. Six days later, we learned that no classes would be conducted at the university and that all classes for all programs would be conducted online for the duration of the semester. It seemed like an extreme measure, but it was understandable to me because students would be leaving during spring break and returning from different parts of the country or even international trips. Now the decision does not seem extreme at all, and I think there's a good chance students won't be returning to campus this fall.
RE: Awareness - BostonCard - 04-10-2020
For me the recognition happened in a series of up and down events:
I recognized it was a big deal medically early; I think around the New Years break in some of the medical newsletters I read a cluster of unusual pneumonias in Wuhan was being reported. When it was found to be a coronavirus, I naively assumed it would follow the same trajectory as SARS and MERS: seriously affect a few thousand people and kill around 10% but be (relatively) contained. Around this time I would have been one of the people arguing that it was likely to be not as big of a deal as the flu because despite higher mortality I didn't expect it to become a pandemic. Wuhan being shut down was the turning point for me, especially when there were news reports of millions of people leaving right before the quarantine was instituted (another failing of the CCP) and people headed home to their home provinces for Chinese New Year. At that point, I expected millions of cases in China. When these did not materialize I was somewhat reassured.
Then there were the cases in Sacramento and Washington. That there had been community spread had obvious implications, and I knew that the fire was going to be hard to put out.
I was in Honduras on a medical mission when the recognition dawned on the US and had somewhat limited internet access. That's when theer were outbreaks in Italy and Iran and the first big drops happened in the stock market happened. Then over the next two weeks everything was happening faster... my company went from "monitoring the pandemic" to encouraging people to work from home, to mandating all but business essential people work from home in the span of a week. Schools went from starting to ask whether we needed to cancel school (but concluding "no" on Wednesday) to sending kids home until the end of spring break on Friday, and the NBA went from mocking coronavirus concerns in a press conference to having people test positive and stopping the season.
BC
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-10-2020
Last week of February, we were making contingency plans. For two weeks, we waited and watched. In 48 hours we got everybody out of Dodge, so to speak. I flew home from DC to SJ on 3/13, wearing my N95 and hoping I made it on time.
RE: Awareness - Genuine Realist - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Last week of February, we were making contingency plans. For two weeks, we waited and watched. In 48 hours we got everybody out of Dodge, so to speak. I flew home from DC to SJ on 3/13, wearing my N95 and hoping I made it on time.
The point is not political. It's that this has come with such speed that society is still in a state of shock. Reminiscent of 9'11, I don't think the event has been fully assimilated yet - not even close.
I don't share your pessimism. A society as resourceful and resilient as this one will cope. But I don't think we're returning to 'normal' any time soon. In fact, 'normal' is going to be considerably different - better in some ways, worse in others, but very, very different. The bottom line is that herd immunity isn't going to be acquired any time soon (making hash of the original plan to isolate the elderly and endangered, and let nature take its course with the rest), vaccination is a long time in the future, and then outbreaks will re-occur.
We are dealing with a transforming event, and no one as yet knows how.
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 12:03 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(04-10-2020, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Last week of February, we were making contingency plans. For two weeks, we waited and watched. In 48 hours we got everybody out of Dodge, so to speak. I flew home from DC to SJ on 3/13, wearing my N95 and hoping I made it on time.
The point is not political. It's that this has come with such speed that society is still in a state of shock. Reminiscent of 9'11, I don't think the event has been fully assimilated yet - not even close.
I don't share your pessimism. A society as resourceful and resilient as this one will cope. But I don't think we're returning to 'normal' any time soon. In fact, 'normal' is going to be considerably different - better in some ways, worse in others, but very, very different. The bottom line is that herd immunity isn't going to be acquired any time soon (making hash of the original plan to isolate the elderly and endangered, and let nature take its course with the rest), vaccination is a long time in the future, and then outbreaks will re-occur.
We are dealing with a transforming event, and no one as yet knows how.
I'm pessimistic because our economy is a finely tuned engine and we've already extended ourselves to extend the booming economy. Understand that what we've done hasn't been to slow the economy, or restrict it...it's been stopped in its tracks, except for a few essential industries.
The layoffs we've seen are the tip of the iceberg. The last Goldman Sachs estimate I saw was a 6% contraction in GDP. If it's only twice that, we'll be exceedingly fortunate. Kiplinger says a 4% contraction. These are pipe dreams.
Consumers are to the economy what voters are to politics. In sum, they are the only engine that matters, the lever that turns all business and government spending. If people can't buy, we cease to function. And if they can't buy for long, both the people who buy and the businesses who sell to them and build for them are well and truly f'd.
Every day we wait increases the odds of this country not being able to bounce back fully. I don't think we have the resources, and based upon what I've seen from the millenials -- even though I have two of my own and 15 among my employees -- I'm not sanguine about their ability to restart the country, from any perspective, including financial, emotional, physical.
RE: Awareness - dabigv13 - 04-10-2020
Now the economy being killed by Coronavirus is millenials' fault too!
Give it a rest dude, seriously. Peoples' lives come before the economy.
![[Image: EUjx3dPVAAABUlY?format=jpg&name=900x900]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUjx3dPVAAABUlY?format=jpg&name=900x900)
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 02:25 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Now the economy being killed by Coronavirus is millenials' fault too!
That's not what I was saying and you know it. They didn't make the decision to shut everything down and put 17 million people out of work (and counting).
What I was saying is that you can't count on the economy bouncing back, in part due to the characteristics of millenial employees.
RE: Awareness - 2006alum - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 03:16 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-10-2020, 02:25 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Now the economy being killed by Coronavirus is millenials' fault too!
That's not what I was saying and you know it. They didn't make the decision to shut everything down and put 17 million people out of work (and counting).
What I was saying is that you can't count on the economy bouncing back, in part due to the characteristics of millenial employees.
My two cents is dabigv13 nailed it. Economy >> Lives has more or less been the gist of many of your posts for several weeks now. We get it - young people, out-of-touch elites and the upper class, unsanitary people (of color) in Detroit, 1.3 billion Chinese people, and a 77-year-old CCP-sympathizer from Delaware are all conspiring to ruin the Holy Economy. I think you've made your position abundantly clear in thread after thread after thread.
Speaking only for myself, it's leading me to start tuning out of this forum altogether, because the substantive, data-oriented posts keep getting dragged down in extremely repetitious But. Is. It. Worth. It. whataboutism debates. I'm completely guilty of taking the bait and taking the low road myself, but dang does this shtick get old.
RE: Awareness - baymeadows3408 - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 03:16 PM)Mick Wrote: What I was saying is that you can't count on the economy bouncing back, in part due to the characteristics of millenial employees.
I'll bite. What are the characteristics of my generation (I'm 34, wife is 36) as employees?
RE: Awareness - teejers1 - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 02:25 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Give it a rest dude, seriously. Peoples' lives come before the economy.
No matter the cost?
1 life is more important than _ billion?
1,000 lives (no matter the state of same) is more important than __ billion?
Look, everything in decision-making comes down to a cost-benefit analysis. I think even you know that in your heart of hearts.
Part of the discomfort I have is that those advocating for continued shut down, saying we have to do this until a vaccine is reached, and we have testing for everyone so we can test/isolate, and we have effective treatments to combat virus don't even care what that might mean in terms of delaying steps back to a sense of normalcy and the financial impact of same. (And by that, I'm NOT talking about 50,000 in the stands at a game in Tuscaloosa, but much more mundane day-to-day things).
It's so much "easier" to say "I'm being more moral because every life matters, and the economic damage side of the equation doesn't matter because . . . well because we're all effed no matter what. Too late now." Nice freaking outlook . . . NOT.
It's the ultimate in irony (and injustice) that China is the one superpower country that is going to end up ahead when all the dust settles on this mess. I wonder if lives matter more in that country . . .
RE: Awareness - dabigv13 - 04-10-2020
Some states or countries will make the mistake of opening too early. And then people will die. And then they'll close up again.
As so many on this board have been saying, economy versus lives saved is a false choice. We have a shit economy and a lot of people die, or we have a shit economy and less people die. Direct your frustration to your elected leaders to try and speed up testing and public health capabilities, because we need that before bothering to try and reopen.
RE: Awareness - teejers1 - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 06:27 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Some states or countries will make the mistake of opening too early. And then people will die. And then they'll close up again.
As so many on this board have been saying, economy versus lives saved is a false choice. We have a shit economy and a lot of people die, or we have a shit economy and less people die. Direct your frustration to your elected leaders to try and speed up testing and public health capabilities, because we need that before bothering to try and reopen.
1. We have shut-down and people are dying.
2. "We have a shit economy and a lot of people die, or we have a shit economy and less people die."
Thanks for reinforcing my interpretation of your view of things.
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-11-2020
(04-10-2020, 04:10 PM)2006alum Wrote: I'm completely guilty of taking the bait and taking the low road myself, but dang does this shtick get old.
I was just thinking that same thing. I realize you and burger and dabig and others would prefer not to read my posts and trust me, I find your position baffling. However, I don't advocate silencing any of you, though all three of you have demanded my silence on this topic in one way or another -- something I wouldn't even consider, but then I'm a 1A guy. Incidentally, I hope that post-coronavirus you don't get the society you seem to prefer. So either put me on ignore or kick me off your board. At this point, I don't care which.
RE: Awareness - cardcrimson - 04-11-2020
(04-10-2020, 04:10 PM)2006alum Wrote: Speaking only for myself, it's leading me to start tuning out of this forum altogether, because the substantive, data-oriented posts keep getting dragged down in extremely repetitious But. Is. It. Worth. It. whataboutism debates.
Amazing. One side has substantive, date-oriented posts? You mean the side that just a few weeks ago was claiming we'd be seeing 2.5 million deaths here in the US because Trump had failed?
Personally, I laughed out loud that you're starting to tune out of the forum. Ironic as you pretty much drove me away after telling me to post elsewhere as my opinions weren't welcome here. Now you're telling Mick and others to do the same. . . .
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-11-2020
(04-10-2020, 04:10 PM)baymeadows3408 Wrote:(04-10-2020, 03:16 PM)Mick Wrote: What I was saying is that you can't count on the economy bouncing back, in part due to the characteristics of millenial employees.
I'll bite. What are the characteristics of my generation (I'm 34, wife is 36) as employees?
My background for the past three decades has been running the sales and marketing functions for large professional services firms in SV, SFBA, NYC, DC, Boston and Detroit. The teams I've managed have ranged from 10 to 90 employees/contractors and range across the generations, throughout North America and on three continents. Currently my remaining team is 30 not including the three employees I furloughed and the two contractors I let go. So I'll share my perspective, which is as limited as that of any individual.
My experience has been that millenials are tech-savvy, collaborative, curious, individualistic, devoted to the social common good, financially stable, smart and eager to learn. Also that they want praise and a raise and early promotions and a life outside of work. Collectively, they don't work as hard as prior generations, particularly if they were born in America.
I'll just share one example of the collective experience of me and my peers, who work for about thirty successful national law firms. From their founding, the associates (younger lawyers) would socialize with partners after hours to learn how to work with clients and prospects, to learn how to network. It's important not just for their respective firms, but important for the associates' future careers because whether they make partner at their current firm, or go on to the bench, or work inhouse; they will need as broad and as strong a network as possible to generate those opportunities. Associates understood that it was time they invested to advance their careers.
Until the millenials. Millenial associates now want to be paid for the business development work. Most of my peers have seen millenial associates collectively approach management to inform them that they wanted to be paid (or credited with billable hours) for what prior generations did for free because it contributed to their future. Prior generations wouldn't even think to ask for it because it made no sense and went completely against tradition.
Just one perspective. Here are a few other perspectives:
https://business.linkedin.com/talent-solutions/blog/2013/12/8-millennials-traits-you-should-know-about-before-you-hire-them
https://michiganscouting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Five-Characteristics-of-Millennials.pdf
https://www.mindtickle.com/blog/new-hire-onboarding/10-millennial-personality-traits-hr-managers-cant-ignore/
https://www.livescience.com/38061-millennials-generation-y.html
https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/interviewing/10-millennial-generation-characteristics
https://www.livescience.com/38061-millennials-generation-y.html
https://www.careerprofiles.com/blog/understanding-millennial-characteristics-in-the-workplace/
https://blog.crossknowledge.com/millennial-behavior/
https://www.ey.com/en_us/advisory/how-contradictions-define-generation-z?WT.mc_id=10789100&AA.tsrc=paidsearch&gclid=CjwKCAjw1cX0BRBmEiwAy9tKHnczE7QsaVgwMDZAE2qS8xT_yQjnQim17CKAGqtGaarNvmXiTzqfyhoCZ9UQAvD_BwE
(04-10-2020, 06:27 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: As so many on this board have been saying, economy versus lives saved is a false choice. We have a shit economy and a lot of people die, or we have a shit economy and less people die.
With respect, it's not a false choice. When people work productively, the economy is better than when people don't work productively. It was true during the Spanish flu, America's economy and GDP kept strong with a minor blip. And yes, they had no choice, they didn't have the medical advances we do now. So they worked hard and 675,000 Americans died, and they entered the Roaring 20s and succeeded...until the Great Depression. And as I've made clear, I don't think we're facing a Great Depression. I think what we're facing is worse. China understands it and we don't. They will come out of this the unquestioned global leader, and will dictate terms economically. Or did you miss the fact that they floated the idea that if we didn't play ball they would hold back on delivering antibiotics that they manufacture? At its worst, America would never have done that. In six months when our economy and Europe's economies are in ruins, the Chinese will dictate terms in ways you can't believe.
I don't understand why some people on this board thinks that there would be the same economic result with people working vs. people not working. Intuitively that can't possibly be true.
RE: Awareness - 2006alum - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 08:47 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Amazing. One side has substantive, date-oriented posts? You mean the side that just a few weeks ago was claiming we'd be seeing 2.5 million deaths here in the US because Trump had failed?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/greglesinc/status/1249016403065102336?s=20[/tweet]
RE: Awareness - BostonCard - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 10:11 AM)Mick Wrote: With respect, it's not a false choice. When people work productively, the economy is better than when people don't work productively. It was true during the Spanish flu, America's economy and GDP kept strong with a minor blip. And yes, they had no choice, they didn't have the medical advances we do now. So they worked hard and 675,000 Americans died, and they entered the Roaring 20s and succeeded...until the Great Depression. And as I've made clear, I don't think we're facing a Great Depression. I think what we're facing is worse. China understands it and we don't. They will come out of this the unquestioned global leader, and will dictate terms economically. Or did you miss the fact that they floated the idea that if we didn't play ball they would hold back on delivering antibiotics that they manufacture? At its worst, America would never have done that. In six months when our economy and Europe's economies are in ruins, the Chinese will dictate terms in ways you can't believe.
I don't understand why some people on this board thinks that there would be the same economic result with people working vs. people not working. Intuitively that can't possibly be true.
I think it is odd that you mention China, because in many ways their response was even more heavy-handed than ours. It is only because they were able to get the virus under control that they were able to re-open their economy. I think that once we get over the worst of it and reduce the number of new infections into the hundreds with effective testing and tracing that we too would re-open much of our economy.
BC
RE: Awareness - Mick - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 10:58 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I think it is odd that you mention China, because in many ways their response was even more heavy-handed than ours. It is only because they were able to get the virus under control that they were able to re-open their economy. I think that once we get over the worst of it and reduce the number of new infections into the hundreds with effective testing and tracing that we too would re-open much of our economy.
I can't tell if you're kidding or not. Agreed, their response was more heavy handed, both in the prevention phase and in the reopening phase.