Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Printable Version
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Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - akiddoc - 04-14-2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#53464af53dec
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - OutsiderFan - 04-15-2020
(04-14-2020, 08:44 PM)akiddoc Wrote: https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#53464af53dec
I so badly wanted a woman POTUS this year.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Genuine Realist - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 06:16 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-14-2020, 08:44 PM)akiddoc Wrote: https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#53464af53dec
I so badly wanted a woman POTUS this year.
Maybe but the success of the named countries doesn't appear to have much to do with the gender of the head of state, but other factors, such as easily identifiable clusters, smaller population, efficient health services, etc.
Quite apart from CDC problems, the US experience seems largely related to the much larger amount of traffic between China and the US that continued through January.
As to a woman candidate, I think you can count on Haley being a viable candidate in 2024.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - 2006alum - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 07:41 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Quite apart from CDC problems, the US experience seems largely related to the much larger amount of traffic between China and the US that continued through January.
Receipts please. The data analysis I've seen suggests the opposite:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RichFeinberg1/status/1250184070186885121?s=20[/tweet]
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Genuine Realist - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 07:46 AM)2006alum Wrote:That seems to me to be somewhat drifting. The point is that the nations who did well in response had much more manageable problems, not particularly related to the gender of the head of state. New Zealand, for example, has a population of only 4.8 million and actually seems to have gone into lockdown after the US. Germany had to deal with a much smaller number of clusters.(04-15-2020, 07:41 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Quite apart from CDC problems, the US experience seems largely related to the much larger amount of traffic between China and the US that continued through January.
Receipts please. The data analysis I've seen suggests the opposite:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RichFeinberg1/status/1250184070186885121?s=20[/tweet]
As for the hypocrisy of some of the criticism of the hindsight reflections, I've posted a couple of links, or actually the same link a couple of times. The point is that the opposition doesn't look one bit better than Trump, and in many ways worse. I don't believe a European travel ban was politically possible any earlier than imposed.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - BostonCard - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 07:41 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Maybe but the success of the named countries doesn't appear to have much to do with the gender of the head of state, but other factors, such as easily identifiable clusters, smaller population, efficient health services, etc.
Quite apart from CDC problems, the US experience seems largely related to the much larger amount of traffic between China and the US that continued through January.
I will start by saying that I too would be skeptical of sweeping generalizations about gender and effectiveness of interventions. For example, Taiwan has done well (and has a female head of state), but so are Singapore and South Korea, who have male heads of state. Likewise the Nordic countries score pretty well (Iceland, Finland, Norway), but so does Denmark (Sweden is a different case because it deliberately pursued a policy of not locking down, and does have a higher proportion of cases and deaths than most other Nordics).
Now that being said, I agree with 2006alum; there's no evidence that the US experience is solely due to the increasing amounts of traffic between the US and China. Genetic analysis of the cases in New York show that most of them actually came via Europe, not spread from China. The West Coast. And ultimately, when the extent of the impact of the virus in the US is worse here than China, the defense that "but he banned travel from China" strikes me as a bit like telling Mrs. Lincoln "But the play was great, wasn't it?" The numbers speak for themselves, and the numbers in the US are bad.
BC
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - magnus - 04-15-2020
BostonCard ' Wrote: Now that being said, I agree with 2006alum; there's no evidence that the US experience is solely due to the increasing amounts of traffic between the US and China. Genetic analysis of the cases in New York show that most of them actually came via Europe, not spread from China. The West Coast. And ultimately, when the extent of the impact of the virus in the US is worse here than China, the defense that "but he banned travel from China" strikes me as a bit like telling Mrs. Lincoln "But the play was great, wasn't it?" The numbers speak for themselves, and the numbers in the US are bad.Then again, if not for a reduction in travel from China, the numbers could have been much worse... especially in the West Coast, if more seeds had landed.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Snorlax94 - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 08:47 AM)magnus Wrote:Probably not. I feel very fortunate to live in the Bay Area, where the counties implemented the first Shelter In Place in the country. It’s clear the public health officers shut down when the case numbers and exponential growth rate dictated it was necessary. If that had happened two weeks earlier, it’s clear they would have started two weeks earlier. They were observing the data — probably for a very long time — and had the character and competence to make a science-based decision when necessary.BostonCard ' Wrote: Now that being said, I agree with 2006alum; there's no evidence that the US experience is solely due to the increasing amounts of traffic between the US and China. Genetic analysis of the cases in New York show that most of them actually came via Europe, not spread from China. The West Coast. And ultimately, when the extent of the impact of the virus in the US is worse here than China, the defense that "but he banned travel from China" strikes me as a bit like telling Mrs. Lincoln "But the play was great, wasn't it?" The numbers speak for themselves, and the numbers in the US are bad.Then again, if not for a reduction in travel from China, the numbers could have been much worse... especially in the West Coast, if more seeds had landed.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Genuine Realist - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 08:41 AM)BostonCard Wrote:The speed of events is almost as fast as the virus. There's a need to reframe constantly. It's obvious now that the travel ban to China was not adequate. The more subtle political point is that even that limited measure was sharply criticized by the opposition, which made more drastic measures politically impossible. The nations that did better either have more authoritarian political structures, more warning, or a simpler cluster pattern.(04-15-2020, 07:41 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Maybe but the success of the named countries doesn't appear to have much to do with the gender of the head of state, but other factors, such as easily identifiable clusters, smaller population, efficient health services, etc.
Quite apart from CDC problems, the US experience seems largely related to the much larger amount of traffic between China and the US that continued through January.
I will start by saying that I too would be skeptical of sweeping generalizations about gender and effectiveness of interventions. For example, Taiwan has done well (and has a female head of state), but so are Singapore and South Korea, who have male heads of state. Likewise the Nordic countries score pretty well (Iceland, Finland, Norway), but so does Denmark (Sweden is a different case because it deliberately pursued a policy of not locking down, and does have a higher proportion of cases and deaths than most other Nordics).
Now that being said, I agree with 2006alum; there's no evidence that the US experience is solely due to the increasing amounts of traffic between the US and China. Genetic analysis of the cases in New York show that most of them actually came via Europe, not spread from China. The West Coast. And ultimately, when the extent of the impact of the virus in the US is worse here than China, the defense that "but he banned travel from China" strikes me as a bit like telling Mrs. Lincoln "But the play was great, wasn't it?" The numbers speak for themselves, and the numbers in the US are bad.
BC
FWIW, my own view is that the drastic regimen we are living with couldn't have been imposed much earlier than it was, for all sorts of practical reasons. You need to have public awareness and a political consensus. So - although it's a gigantic amount of water under the bridge - it is water under the bridge.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - magnus - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 08:56 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:It's not that it would have started earlier. It's that there'd be more fires to put out, which means more chance for one of the seeds to hit a vulnerable population and explode. Even if it did mean an earlier seed, given the amount of testing at the time (basically none), not sure it would have been spotted until "critical mass"(04-15-2020, 08:47 AM)magnus Wrote: Then again, if not for a reduction in travel from China, the numbers could have been much worse... especially in the West Coast, if more seeds had landed.Probably not. I feel very fortunate to live in the Bay Area, where the counties implemented the first Shelter In Place in the country. It’s clear the public health officers shut down when the case numbers and exponential growth rate dictated it was necessary. If that had happened two weeks earlier, it’s clear they would have started two weeks earlier. They were observing the data — probably for a very long time — and had the character and competence to make a science-based decision when necessary.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - ChicagoCard - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 07:41 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Maybe but the success of the named countries doesn't appear to have much to do with the gender of the head of state, but other factors, such as easily identifiable clusters, smaller population, efficient health services, etc.
In the case of the Scandinavian countries, or Nordic countries, many of the factors that have helped them to be efficient and successful in this crisis are some of the same factors that enabled them to be able to elect female heads of state in the first place. Whether directly or indirectly, as I imagine Iceland and Finland's are presidents and Denmark and Norway heads of parliament (i.e. party leaders).
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - OutsiderFan - 04-15-2020
GR, did you read the Forbes article, or just look at the headline?
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - BostonCard - 04-15-2020
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
Quote:Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission). The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything. A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked. And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.
BC
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - akiddoc - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 11:20 AM)BostonCard Wrote: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
Quote:Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission). The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything. A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked. And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.
BC
I agree. Saying "but the travel ban" is a bit like saying "but what about Hillary." Doesn't have much to do with transmission. What we needed was decisive, uniform social isolation. I emailed the governor's office 2 weeks prior to his going all in saying it needed to happen immediately. Guess he didn't believe me....
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - Genuine Realist - 04-15-2020
[quote="OutsiderFan" pid='276886' dateline='1586973761']
GR, did you read the Forbes article, or just look at the headline?
[/quote
I read what there was of it. My recollection was that it got into specifics fairly quickly.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - oldalum - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 10:10 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: In the case of the Scandinavian countries, or Nordic countries, many of the factors that have helped them to be efficient and successful in this crisis are some of the same factors that enabled them to be able to elect female heads of state in the first place.precisely! that's a major confounding factor. Others have been cited in this thread. The basic problem with the article is that correlation does not equal causation.
RE: Countries with female heads of state and C-19 - terry - 04-16-2020
(04-15-2020, 08:41 AM)BostonCard Wrote: the Nordic countries score pretty well (Iceland, Finland, Norway), but so does Denmark (Sweden is a different case because it deliberately pursued a policy of not locking down, and does have a higher proportion of cases and deaths than most other Nordics).
Covid-19 deaths per million of population:
132 Sweden
55 Denmark
28 Norway
23 Iceland
14 Finland