Why restaurants are so F'ed - Printable Version
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Why restaurants are so F'ed - stupac2 - 04-15-2020
I had this suspicion, but it's nice to see the numbers laid out: https://medium.com/@joelleparenteau/why-are-restaurants-so-fucked-ca07c4624745
I'd be interested to see how places are managing to survive doing takeout only, even reducing the staff and suspending some of those fixed monthly costs, the reduction in volume has to be brutal.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - teejers1 - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 07:59 PM)stupac2 Wrote: I had this suspicion, but it's nice to see the numbers laid out: https://medium.com/@joelleparenteau/why-are-restaurants-so-fucked-ca07c4624745
I'd be interested to see how places are managing to survive doing takeout only, even reducing the staff and suspending some of those fixed monthly costs, the reduction in volume has to be brutal.
I'm sure this is just my misinterpretation of your posts, but you seem quick to highlight how economy is screwed no matter what ("nice" to see numbers laid out?), while also shooting down attempts to re-open, even if modestly.* Using restaurants, I'm not sure why some can't re-open subject to seating restrictions and other precautions that we know will be put in place. Am sure menus will be on patrons' handhelds and/or on signage in restaurant; gloves worn; maybe even masks. (Fundamentally, I don't see what increased risk is in a person delivering your food at a table vs. delivering it to your home. . . but perhaps I'm just being dense).
Now, whether anyone would go to make it worthwhile is another question altogether. But from a risk standpoint, I'm not sure why some kind of attempts or trial runs, if you will, can't be implemented.
* I view a couple other posters as coming from same angle, so I'm serious when I say it's probably my misread.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Snorlax94 - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 10:40 PM)teejers1 Wrote: I'm sure this is just my misinterpretation of your posts, but you seem quick to highlight how economy is screwed no matter what ("nice" to see numbers laid out?), while also shooting down attempts to re-open, even if modestly.*I think by “nice to see numbers laid out”, I think he meant, it’s helpful/insightful.
Now, whether anyone would go to make it worthwhile is another question altogether.
* I view a couple other posters as coming from same angle, so I'm serious when I say it's probably my misread.
I don’t think anyone on this board wants anything to be shut down, nor does anyone want any industry to be f***ed.
I think actually the post expresses a sadness about the possible loss of restaurants.
I think part of it is just commiserating, like, oh sh*t, we are so f***ed! Part of it, at least on my part, is concern about trying to reopen businesses on a time-table, instead of based on the situation. It’s clear there appears to be a push to re-open, whether we are ready or not. My view (and I think a common one) is that opening when we are not ready could be much worse for everyone — it’ll kill many Americans, it’ll cause permanent damage to many, many more, and it’ll lead to even more catastrophic economic damage
So, What is ready? I like this expression:
Ready is when the testing and tracing capabilities is greater then the current cases and their growth.
And this is why everyone is frustrated by the failures and slow progress on these fronts. If we could test and trace better, we could re-open sooner.
The disagreement is — if we don’t have those containment capabilities yet — should we re-open now anyway? Would that be better or worse?
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - BostonCard - 04-15-2020
A lot of restaurants will sadly go out of business. This is very saddening, especially for the people who work there who won't be able to find new jobs.
Looking far into the future, any restaurant that survives will be able to cut overhead costs, as, unfortunately, there will be a lot of vacant properties and landlords will no longer hold the upper hand, particularly in expensive areas like this.
In addition, with many fewer restaurants out there, the ones that do survive may be able to charge more. Part of it will depend on whether there are permanent changes in people eating out, but I suspect that in the long term, people will start to go out more. And with future diners outstripping restaurants' capacity, the survivors may be able to pull in better margins.
But that will be little solace to the businesses that go under.
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - chrisk - 04-15-2020
Some restaurants in Palo Alto have announced they are not coming back.
Dan Gordon made a statement about the restaurant situation and his closure to PA City Council Monday night.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2020
The sit down dining experience will not be economically viable unless those who want it are willing to pay a premium for it. If dine in places are required to reduce capacity they aren’t going to be able to afford the rent of their current footprints. The only way to make it up will be surcharges to sit down and be served.
The average folk or those who won’t pay that surcharge to sit and be served will be reduced to take out dinners or deliveries. If people are staying home much more, this will be a fair trade off.
Another alternative will be commercial kitchens that prepare food and deliver it, but don’t have any dine in option at all. Pizza chains and Zune have done this. Restrauters could rent kitchen only spaces that you see on a show like Top Chef and produce their food that way.
Food trucks are another path forward. Rather than going to areas people work, they could do signups for people requesting them at certain residential locations and show up when they have enough requests.
Just because established business models are being disrupted, it does not follow that new ones won’t replace them. Keep in mind forest fires are engines of forest re-generation. The pandemic reality will cause damage to those wedded to previous ways, but new opportunities will also be available to do things differently. The same dynamics will be true across the entire economy. Those who insist on trying to operate the same way will suffer, while those who are willing to adapt quickly will thrive.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Mick - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 04:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Just because established business models are being disrupted, it does not follow that new ones won’t replace them.
The former restaurant model is unlikely to return. The Natl Restaurant Ass'n estimated that they lost between 5 million and 7 million workers in these past four weeks. Takeout is an option, although you take a risk getting takeout. Pizza seems okay (cooked at 500 degrees, straight to box, no one touches it).
I think most people go back to cooking. It's a simple pleasure, relaxing and cheaper than restaurants. For a while it was difficult to find flour, and there are still some shortages of cooking items. But people will habituate to preparing their own food, I suspect, particularly since we will be much poorer when (if) we return to work.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - ChicagoCard - 04-16-2020
People need a place to have dates.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Farm93 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 06:36 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: People need a place to have dates.
Dinner and a movie?
I think anyone looking to turn down a potential date has a new easy out.
Ohhh geeee...that sounds nice but I don't have immunity to COVID19 yet. Maybe in 2022. OK? Ummm....bye bye.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - ChicagoCard - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 06:58 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-16-2020, 06:36 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: People need a place to have dates.
Dinner and a movie?
I think anyone looking to turn down a potential date has a new easy out.
Ohhh geeee...that sounds nice but I don't have immunity to COVID19 yet. Maybe in 2022. OK? Ummm....bye bye.
Thanks. Maybe I can suggest resorting to walking six feet apart or more and using this means of communication:
![[Image: 15ba29446bead5934688b1aef8f6be31.jpg]](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/15/ba/29/15ba29446bead5934688b1aef8f6be31.jpg)
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 06:04 AM)Mick Wrote:(04-16-2020, 04:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Just because established business models are being disrupted, it does not follow that new ones won’t replace them.
The former restaurant model is unlikely to return. The Natl Restaurant Ass'n estimated that they lost between 5 million and 7 million workers in these past four weeks. Takeout is an option, although you take a risk getting takeout. Pizza seems okay (cooked at 500 degrees, straight to box, no one touches it).
I think most people go back to cooking. It's a simple pleasure, relaxing and cheaper than restaurants. For a while it was difficult to find flour, and there are still some shortages of cooking items. But people will habituate to preparing their own food, I suspect, particularly since we will be much poorer when (if) we return to work.
That's more than 25% of the total unemployed. Wow. Full serve, sit-down restaurants will be back, Guy Fieri, Robert Irvine, and Gordon Ramsay will insist on it. . . .Kitchen Nightmares, perhaps. Restaurant Impossible? Never.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 09:38 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: That's more than 25% of the total unemployed. Wow. Full serve, sit-down restaurants will be back, Guy Fieri, Robert Irvine, and Gordon Ramsay will insist on it. . . .Kitchen Nightmares, perhaps. Restaurant Impossible? Never.
There will be fewer sit down restaurants and they will have less seating than in the past. Restaurants won't go away, but they won't be back in the same form they existed pre-coronavirus, just as flying resumed after 9/11 but the way we fly has changed dramatically.
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - chrisk - 04-16-2020
Zume’s pizza making business failed months ago and the robotics part of the company just laid off another 200 people. It may not survive this downturn.
Restaurants should be able to negotiate significantly lower rents in this environment and labor will be plentiful for the survivors (although minimum wage in CA will be an issue).
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 06:58 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-16-2020, 06:36 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: People need a place to have dates.
Dinner and a movie?
I think anyone looking to turn down a potential date has a new easy out.
Ohhh geeee...that sounds nice but I don't have immunity to COVID19 yet. Maybe in 2022. OK? Ummm....bye bye.
CLASSIC!
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 09:49 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(04-16-2020, 09:38 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: That's more than 25% of the total unemployed. Wow. Full serve, sit-down restaurants will be back, Guy Fieri, Robert Irvine, and Gordon Ramsay will insist on it. . . .Kitchen Nightmares, perhaps. Restaurant Impossible? Never.
There will be fewer sit down restaurants and they will have less seating than in the past. Restaurants won't go away, but they won't be back in the same form they existed pre-coronavirus, just as flying resumed after 9/11 but the way we fly has changed dramatically.
BC
Since 9/11, air travel hasn't changed very much. Security has changed getting on a plane, significantly though. If anything, air travel WILL change significantly after Covid. In planes, you're crammed in tight quarters with complete strangers with no fresh air. That will have to change, somehow, and more drastically than restaurants. At least with restaurants, you know the people you're sitting with. . . .
Besides, with all this increased home cooking, you know some wanna be chefs will be opening their own restaurants soon enough and fulfilling their dreams.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2020
I touched on this above, but my SO - who is a BIG restaurant fan - pretty well endorsed what I said about premium on service with the new restaurant reality.
I asked her if she would pay $25 just for the opportunity to go into and be served in a restaurant that has fewer tables? She said absolutely because it is about the experience. She said they will have to come up with ways to make the dining experience less about volume and more about a rich experience.
My suggestion would be to assign waiters to fewer tables, so there is never any chance you have to wait for them to ask them to serve you. Also would put an extra seat at the table for your wait person to sit down and talk to your party, about the food, the chef, the town, anything. Maybe this means wait staff actually play a part in preparing your food to some degree as well.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
This was from the SARS epidemic:
![[Image: nejmoa031349_f2.jpeg]](https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2003/nejm_2003.349.issue-25/nejmoa031349/production/images/img_medium/nejmoa031349_f2.jpeg)
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 10:31 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This was from the SARS epidemic:
BC
Not understanding. Was that tracing after the flight?
(04-16-2020, 10:30 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My suggestion would be to assign waiters to fewer tables, so there is never any chance you have to wait for them to ask them to serve you. Also would put an extra seat at the table for your wait person to sit down and talk to your party, about the food, the chef, the town, anything. Maybe this means wait staff actually play a part in preparing your food to some degree as well.
For the foreseeable future, I certainly don't want an unknown person sitting at my table. . . .
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 10:31 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This was from the SARS epidemic:Are you saying at the start of the flight, only the passenger in e14 was sick, and at the end of the flight, all those other passengers were sick?
BC
A doctor friend the whole 6 feet thing was bulls**t. Is this why?
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - g1313 - 04-16-2020
Seems way too early to predict the death of in-person restaurants. I think there is always going to be underlying human demand for someone to make food for them, either to save time/effort or to try dishes you don't have the knowledge or skill to make yourself. I also believe that humans are social creatures and have an inherent need to gather. So in the long term I think the business model is solid. I would also assume that the cost of doing business will go down to some offsetting degree (lower lease rates, maybe labor), although I'm sure there are many second- and third-order economic effects here that are hard to predict.
In the short run, demand is down. Very acutely right now due to shelter-in-place, but even if things start opening, as many have pointed out there will be hesitation to resume gathering, and also people will have less discretionary income. I don't think we know yet how much hesitation and how long it lasts, because we don't really know the true fatality rate yet. I think it makes a big difference if it is 1% or 0.1% in terms of how the populace will react. Other currently unknown factors include whether we find a vaccine, and whether we can build herd immunity.