Escape From The Chinese Lab - Printable Version
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Escape From The Chinese Lab - Genuine Realist - 04-15-2020
It goes deeply against my grain to post this link, not so much because it's from Fox News, but because it is anonymously sourced. One of the worsr consequences of Watergate was the universal acceptance since then of anonymous sourced news. I'm fond of saying that when you're reading a news story that's unsourced, you're not reading news at all. You're reading an unsigned op-ed. Who said it is just as important as what they said. The agenda of the source is important.
Speaking of agendas, years ago, you could separate Fox because it was agenda driven. Not any more - the New York Times, WsPo, CNN, institutions that should know better, have all deserted to the lure of clickbait. So Fox is no better or worse than the others.
Those caveats aside, the account has enough plausibility to be worth considering. Here goes:
1. The original virus was bat-to-human, being studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. It was not a bioweapon.
2. Patient zero was a lab worker who became infected in early December. Because the incident reflected badly on the lab, which had already been the subject of warnings by the State Department in 2018 for allegedly unsafe proedures.
3. The petty bureaucrats at the lab site, seeking to cover the embarrassment, concocted the legend of the wet meat market, at the same time as they took steps (not detailed) to halt the spread of the virus in Wuhan.
4. These did not succeed, leading to further bureaucratic cover-ups during the month of December to avoid enlarging national and institutional loss of face. Shades of Chernobyl, if you have seen that excellent series.
5. Anonymous sources say it's '100%' that the Chinese government destroyed samples, scrubbed containment areas, and suppressed academic reports. Well, we'll see. Another anonymous source. What's for sure is that Dr. Li WenLiang and seven others were arrested and sanctioned for spreading rumors in social chat in late January in social chat. Coincidence or not, it was only after those reports, on January 30th, that the CCP admitted to the world the full communicability of Covid-19 and the WHO declared it a pandemic. I hope somebody makes a movie about the doctor. He deserves one. He died of the disease a few days later.
The story is unverified, for my two cents, since it is largely anonymous. But it has an inner logic, entirely consistent with the myopic narcissitic world of Communist bureaucracy. A refusal to acknowledge a failure because of the inevitable comparison to Western standards for such labs leds to an ever widening circle of embarrassment, and finally an international disaster that can't be contained.
We shall see if the story verifies over the next few days. By that I mean REAL sources.
Here's the link. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - chrisk - 04-15-2020
This story makes Trump look worse, if the State Department gave him warnings in 2018.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
I’m open to all possibilities but skeptical.
First, we have two prior coronaviruses that have gone from animal to human without requiring the presence of a virology lab.
Second, while the CCP lies and certainly would want to hide things, transmission dynamics are generally simple. If you look at news reports such as this one from the WSJ, (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932), you can find the name of the hospital that was treating most of the early cases, and it’s a fairly nondescript facility about 22 km (15 miles) from the virology lab and across the Yangtze River. There are many hospitals closer to the virology lab, including a large academic center. The hospital also happens to be about 3 miles from the Huanan seafood market. Obviously there are many scenarios where patient zero is in the lab but the first outbreak occurs 10 miles away (people commute, for example, and the distances are hardly extraordinary), but the most parsimonious explanation is that the first person to become infected was close to the hospitals that saw the first few cases.
Occam’s razor probably applies here. You don’t need to invoke a virology lab and a cover-up to get a coronavirus jumping from bat to person. But skepticism aside, one cannot completely discount the theory.
Now that being said, as others noted in the other thread that raised this theory, does it matter? We know that the CCP is corrupt and was slow to recognize the virus and stop its spread. We also know that the American response has been lacking, and while we do not get to hold China’s leaders accountable for their failures, we do get to hold our own leaders accountable.
BC
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020
It matters because governments want to distract their citizens with finger-pointing to cover up for their own failures and incompetence, and in every country, there’s going to be some people who think their government is doing a perfect job and want to contribute to the distractions.
There are obedient pawns in Iran who think they’re being good, patriotic Iranians by echoing theories that the US designed Covid to attack Iranian DNA, shifting attention away from the failures by the Iranian government.
There are plenty of issues to take up with the Chinese government, but there is no reason to take them up now except for domestic politics. In fact, because it appears China for some reason seems to be the only country capable of manufacturing PPE for healthcare workers, and because many drug trials are simultaneously being run in the US and in China, it is actually harmful for Americans, harmful to American healthcare workers, and harmful to the global quest for effective treatments and vaccines to repeatedly inflame what is only an unlikely theory at this time.
Promoting these theories shifts the focus away from what really matters to Americans: how can we solve these problems and what is the American government doing or utterly failing to do for the American people.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2020
As soon as anyone can demonstrate why the origin of the outbreak matters even a little bit, to solve the problem we have on our hands now, I’ll listen to this pure speculation.
But the reality is everyone, including media outlets of all stripes are doing the world a massive disservice publishing anything but 100% truth. Even publishing preliminary research about what has been observed in small sample sizes is more beneficial than this pointless, divisive speculation.
None of it does a thing to help the current situation at all and in fact makes it worse. This is a global problem that won’t be solved without total cooperation between all entities on the planet. Blame and scapegoating diminishes the ability to cooperate and solve problems.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - burger - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 03:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As soon as anyone can demonstrate why the origin of the outbreak matters even a little bit, to solve the problem we have on our hands now, I’ll listen to this pure speculation.
But the reality is everyone, including media outlets of all stripes are doing the world a massive disservice publishing anything but 100% truth. Even publishing preliminary research about what has been observed in small sample sizes is more beneficial than this pointless, divisive speculation.
None of it does a thing to help the current situation at all and in fact makes it worse. This is a global problem that won’t be solved without total cooperation between all entities on the planet. Blame and scapegoating diminishes the ability to cooperate and solve problems.
This x1000. And conspiracy theories have no place on this board. When actual evidence of a lab origin comes through, please share. Otherwise, can we stop with this already?
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - Mick - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 07:10 AM)burger Wrote:(04-16-2020, 03:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As soon as anyone can demonstrate why the origin of the outbreak matters even a little bit, to solve the problem we have on our hands now, I’ll listen to this pure speculation.
But the reality is everyone, including media outlets of all stripes are doing the world a massive disservice publishing anything but 100% truth. Even publishing preliminary research about what has been observed in small sample sizes is more beneficial than this pointless, divisive speculation.
None of it does a thing to help the current situation at all and in fact makes it worse. This is a global problem that won’t be solved without total cooperation between all entities on the planet. Blame and scapegoating diminishes the ability to cooperate and solve problems.
This x1000. And conspiracy theories have no place on this board. When actual evidence of a lab origin comes through, please share. Otherwise, can we stop with this already?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 07:10 AM)burger Wrote:It matters quite a bit in terms of getting beyond the Blame Game and getting to a national unity that will be quite useful in dealing with a crisis that is the moral equivalent of war.(04-16-2020, 03:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As soon as anyone can demonstrate why the origin of the outbreak matters even a little bit, to solve the problem we have on our hands now, I’ll listen to this pure speculation.
But the reality is everyone, including media outlets of all stripes are doing the world a massive disservice publishing anything but 100% truth. Even publishing preliminary research about what has been observed in small sample sizes is more beneficial than this pointless, divisive speculation.
None of it does a thing to help the current situation at all and in fact makes it worse. This is a global problem that won’t be solved without total cooperation between all entities on the planet. Blame and scapegoating diminishes the ability to cooperate and solve problems.
This x1000. And conspiracy theories have no place on this board. When actual evidence of a lab origin comes through, please share. Otherwise, can we stop with this already?
Being as political as I will get, Trump does not have my vote, and never will, for reasons related to his nativism and his deliberately divisive style. However, he does not in fact have 'blood on his hands' (to quote a CNN commentator) in this instance. Just about every one in the world took a relatively sanguine view of C-19 - and this includes all of the political opponents of Trump - until it was much, much too late to stop it effectively. The reason for this was mis- and disinformation coming out of the CCP.
I'm not a big proponent of blame fixing, at least until historians do it - certainly not journalists or politicians. But if you are determined to have a villain, look off shore to Beijing.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:39 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It matters quite a bit in terms of getting beyond the Blame Game and getting to a national unity that will be quite useful in dealing with a crisis that is the moral equivalent of war.
The magnitude of the health and economic challenge alone should be enough to result in national unity of an equivalence to what the nation experienced in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. I don't think the difference between national unity lies in the difference between it originating in a bat to human (maybe via another animal) transmission versus it originating from an inadvertent escape from a virology lab. This was an unprecedented opportunity for the current president to display leadership, and... he hasn't. His net approval ratings improved about 7 points and has started falling back again. On the other hand, with the exception of Ron DeSantis, governors approval ratings have skyrocketed, with Newsom, Cuomo, and DeWine improving 30+ points.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-americans-like-how-their-governor-is-handling-the-coronavirus-outbreak/
(and I have noted that I had been unimpressed by Newsom until his response to the coronavirus).
BC
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-15-2020, 11:40 PM)chrisk Wrote: This story makes Trump look worse, if the State Department gave him warnings in 2018.Do you really think the expressed concerns actually made it to Trump?
If anything, it makes those life-long diplomats entrenched within the State Department look worse. You know, those folks in similar positions to those who blew the whistle on a phone call. Where were they?
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - burger - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:39 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(04-16-2020, 07:10 AM)burger Wrote:It matters quite a bit in terms of getting beyond the Blame Game and getting to a national unity that will be quite useful in dealing with a crisis that is the moral equivalent of war.(04-16-2020, 03:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As soon as anyone can demonstrate why the origin of the outbreak matters even a little bit, to solve the problem we have on our hands now, I’ll listen to this pure speculation.
But the reality is everyone, including media outlets of all stripes are doing the world a massive disservice publishing anything but 100% truth. Even publishing preliminary research about what has been observed in small sample sizes is more beneficial than this pointless, divisive speculation.
None of it does a thing to help the current situation at all and in fact makes it worse. This is a global problem that won’t be solved without total cooperation between all entities on the planet. Blame and scapegoating diminishes the ability to cooperate and solve problems.
This x1000. And conspiracy theories have no place on this board. When actual evidence of a lab origin comes through, please share. Otherwise, can we stop with this already?
Being as political as I will get, Trump does not have my vote, and never will, for reasons related to his nativism and his deliberately divisive style. However, he does not in fact have 'blood on his hands' (to quote a CNN commentator) in this instance. Just about every one in the world took a relatively sanguine view of C-19 - and this includes all of the political opponents of Trump - until it was much, much too late to stop it effectively. The reason for this was mis- and disinformation coming out of the CCP.
I'm not a big proponent of blame fixing, at least until historians do it - certainly not journalists or politicians. But if you are determined to have a villain, look off shore to Beijing.
As for villainy: 1) you can have more than one villain, and 2) if the virus came from a wet market, China is still one of the (many) bad actors here for not shutting down those markets after SARS (or not making shutdowns permanent--I think they did close them temporarily). As an authoritarian state, maybe they should use their power to do some good for once.
After the crisis part of this is over, I would be in favor of international action against China to both close the wet markets and to ensure that they up the security at their disease labs. Those things would both be good regardless of where this virus came from.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2020
The depths of this slippery slope blame game can never be plumbed because it can go on longer than we have time remaining to live.
BC is spot on. Just recognizing a challenge that impacts everything should be enough impetus for everyone to rally together as one. A house divided against itself can't succeed, and again. - blaming others - has never solved a single problem. Only changes in behavior solves them because the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - Mick - 04-16-2020
From a non-click bait actual journalist:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - 2006alum - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 01:21 PM)Mick Wrote: From a non-click bait actual journalist:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
Were you being sarcastic in referring to the Daily Mail as non-clickbait?
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - ChicagoCard - 04-16-2020
It's virtually impossible to look at that site on a mobile browser, it's so out of control. Maybe the content is quality though.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 01:29 PM)2006alum Wrote:(04-16-2020, 01:21 PM)Mick Wrote: From a non-click bait actual journalist:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
Were you being sarcastic in referring to the Daily Mail as non-clickbait?
For what it is worth, the actual headline was "Wuhan lab was performing coronavirus experiments on bats from the caves where the disease is believed to have originated - with a £3m grant from the US". I think that's a factual statement (albeit with a bit of insinuation), and it avoided click-baity stuff like "Did the coronavirus escape from the lab that was performing coronavirus research on bats linked to cornoavirus?"
BC
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - IdCard83 - 04-16-2020
(04-15-2020, 11:40 PM)chrisk Wrote: This story makes Trump look worse, if the State Department gave him warnings in 2018.The warnings were not directed at the President. He doesn't see every St. Dept cable or email. It was about the general sloppiness and procedures of the lab. I suppose any other president would have put the nation on lock down right then. If he/she even saw the memo. But then again they probably wouldn't have been wasting their time on Russia, Russia and "solemn" impeachment. Or renegotiating NAFTA, the TPPA, or dumping the insane Iran deal. I doubt HRC would have even seen the memo since there was nothing classified on her "private server." At least nothing the Chinese and Russians weren't interested in.
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
Well, here's some cold water on the "it escaped from a Chinese lab" theory:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident
Quote:"All of the evidence points to this not being a laboratory accident," says Jonna Mazet, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Davis and director of a global project to watch for emerging viruses called PREDICT.
Rather, the experts interviewed by NPR all believe that the virus was transmitted between animals and humans in nature, as has happened in previous outbreaks — from Ebola to the Marburg virus — and with other known coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.
That also throws cold water on the theory that it was related to the Wuhan seafood market, except that may have been one of the early sources of spread.
BC
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - stupac2 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:25 PM)BostonCard Wrote: That also throws cold water on the theory that it was related to the Wuhan seafood market, except that may have been one of the early sources of spread.
Does it? I don't have time to go through this specific article but a different one earlier today made it seem like no one was really comfortable nailing it down besides "routine bat-human contact is way more likely than a lab". Of course, routine bat-human contact could include someone capturing them intended for sale, handling before sale, handling before consumption, or just coming across while collecting some other flora/fauna in the same area. Hell, it could've been from a farmer's barn and then he gave it to the guy at the market who buys his produce. The market could still have been the method it was distributed into the wider world, even if it wasn't where the leap actually happened (and, as far as I've seen, we have no evidence either way if it was or wasn't where the patient 0 was infected).
RE: Escape From The Cinese LAb - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
I wouldn't exclude the market, but I viewed this statement as saying it probably happened in rural Hubei province rather than urban Wuhan.
Quote:Rather, the experts interviewed by NPR all believe that the virus was transmitted between animals and humans in nature, as has happened in previous outbreaks — from Ebola to the Marburg virus — and with other known coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.
"The real risk is in the wild in the way people interact with wildlife around the world," says Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance in New York City, a group that researches the origins of pandemics. "That's where we need to be focused if we want to really do something about preventing the next pandemic."
Doesn't mean the final transmission from animal to human didn't happen in the seafood market, of course. But my sense is that a better explanation is that an infected person transmitted it to numerous other people in the market. That explains the inconsistent association between early cases and the market, including one of the first patients diagnosed having no ties to it (or to the viral lab).
BC