Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - Printable Version
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Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - martyup - 04-16-2020
https://principia-scientific.org/shock-israeli-study-reveals-covid19-lockdown-was-pointless/
Quote:The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 11:47 AM)martyup Wrote: https://principia-scientific.org/shock-israeli-study-reveals-covid19-lockdown-was-pointless/The credibility of the site is extremely suspect.
Quote:The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - 2006alum - 04-16-2020
[tweet]https://twitter.com/LaurieBriggs11/status/1250842625344704514?s=20[/tweet]
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Quote:Marina Medvin is a capitalist, conservative columnist and political commentator. She is also an award-winning trial attorney, named as one of Washington’s Best Lawyers by Washingtonian Magazine. She advocates for the preservation of American values. Website: medvin.me | email: marina@medvin.me | Facebook & Twitter: @MarinaMedvin
Thanks for the Propaganda share, Marty! The Trumpenproletariat will surely be pleased.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - martyup - 04-16-2020
Please don't attack the messenger. Attack the science if you want to attack. I did not research the author or the "Principa-Scientific" website. I thought it was an interesting study of the Covid-19 data.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - magnus - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 11:47 AM)martyup Wrote:Quote:The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
The pattern may be the same, but the magnitude was VERY different.
Look at this ft.com tracker showing daily deaths (after 3rd death)
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5d901b2e-7f58-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260
You can see how much higher the Sweden peak was vs Israel, even though Israel and Sweden have about the same size population (10% difference) and Sweden is MUCH larger area wise than Israel.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - martyup - 04-16-2020
True. Sweden has had 1300 deaths while Isreal has under 200.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
Israel has been relatively inconsistent with its implementation of the lockdown. Mandatory quarantine of all incoming passengers, yet some planes unloaded and passengers allowed to go home without tracing. Lockdown, but people still heading to the beaches. Distance limitations of 100-150 meters from home, but "passes" allowed for essential people, like marketing personnel. All anecdotally, but I'm talking with Israelis at least twice a week.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - 2006alum - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 12:22 PM)martyup Wrote: Please don't attack the messenger. Attack the science if you want to attack. I did not research the author or the "Principa-Scientific" website. I thought it was an interesting study of the Covid-19 data.
Everyone exercises discretion in what they post in this forum, so I do think it's a reasonable burden on the poster to determine whether a claim as bold as "Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless" has any validity at all before posting. And all the more so when it confirms the poster's previously established motivated reasoning. But whatever - at this point there's a pretty established record of non-engagement with facts that don't fit the preferred worldview.
PS: I have no idea what his underlying data is, but the claim that number of infections peak in week 6 is so demonstrably contradicted by Japan's case that I don't see any point in engaging with the rest of it:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/inkcanada/status/1250819797543202819?s=20[/tweet]
It's been three months since Japan's first case and they just set matched their all-time high for daily infections reported.
Indeed, unfortunately many countries are experiencing new near-highs months after their first reported cases:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Lstedmanbryce/status/1240310146087124992?s=20[/tweet]
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - martyup - 04-16-2020
The study does show an uncanny pattern of the progression of cases over time. Perhaps this shows that mitigation is important to decrease overall deaths in a region and not just "flatten the curve." If so, this is good news. This might mean that the curves will fall rapidly after the peaks, regardless of the magnitude of the peak.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - magnus - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 01:26 PM)2006alum Wrote: Indeed, unfortunately many countries are experiencing new near-highs months after their first reported cases:While your post doesn't refute what you're saying, you could give a more emphatic proof if you updated to a more recent tweet. =)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Lstedmanbryce/status/1240310146087124992?s=20[/tweet]
I believe just Monday, Singapore set a new high with over 250 new cases and now they just hit 700+ new cases. yikes!
Fortunately, Taiwan and Hong Kong were able to put the lid back on as their curves have dropped back down.
(04-16-2020, 01:46 PM)martyup Wrote: The study does show an uncanny pattern of the progression of cases over time. Perhaps this shows that mitigation is important to decrease overall deaths in a region and not just "flatten the curve." If so, this is good news. This might mean that the curves will fall rapidly after the peaks, regardless of the magnitude of the peak.
There hasn't been anything close to a rapid drop as far as I can tell. We've only just reached a peak in most places and if you ignore China's curve, time will tell what the rest of the "curve" looks like.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
When all is said and done, a team including a good econometrician and epidemiologist will be able to use the numbers to determine the effect of the shelter in place orders by taking advantage of the different times that they were put in place.
BC
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - 2006alum - 04-16-2020
Yeah, Singapore is unfortunately living proof that the new infections don't peak a mere six weeks after first outbreak:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1250953384015925248?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1220353815242780673?s=20[/tweet]
12 weeks after its first case, highest daily number of newly diagnosed infections announced.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062943v1
Quote:We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.
Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.
BC
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.I'll bite. What is RE?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062943v1
Quote:We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.
Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.
BC
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - dabigv13 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062943v1
Quote:We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.
Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.
BC
Think you have that backwards BC. Was higher in Socal early March, but lower now.
These numbers have likely declined even further since the numbers cited here. We are starting to see actual drops in hospitalizations, ICUs, and vents after a steady plateau, across Southern California. Steeper drop than I would've thought too, though only been a couple days so too early to feel too good about it.
Good news is social distancing works. But it takes a month just to start getting past worst of the peak, we'll see how long it takes to get back down to zero.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - oldalum - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: I'll bite. What is RE?The paper defines it as the "effective reproductive number," which is "the number of secondary infections resulting from infections acquired on a given day." The paper's methods and statistics are too sophisticated for me to understand, and I don't know if R(E) is the same as R(o)--but if it isn't, it is very similar.
The study shows the advantage of using large integrated delivery systems to conduct clinical studies in a defined population. This study used Kaiser Permanente's Northern California, Southern California, and Washington's regions. KP conducts extensive research that has contributed a lot.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
@dabigv13: you are right, I wrote higher when I meant to write lower.
@oldalum: you are on the right track. R(E) is the effective R. Whereas R0 is the "natural" transmissibility of a virus, R(E) (also sometimes referred to as R(t)) is the transmissibility of a virus over different times and geographies, as transmissibility is partly a characteristic of a virus and partly a characteristic of the society in which it is spreading at the time of spread.
BC
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - ChicagoCard - 04-17-2020
CNN International: "Wuhan coronavirus", lol.
RE: Israeli Study Reveals COVID19 Lockdown Was Pointless - BostonCard - 04-17-2020
(04-17-2020, 06:53 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: CNN International: "Wuhan coronavirus", lol.
Back in January, that's what it was being referred to. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses did not name the virus SARS-CoV-2 until February 11.
BC