Georgia rolling the dice - Printable Version

Georgia rolling the dice - Printable Version

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Georgia rolling the dice - OutsiderFan - 04-20-2020

As much as it seems like poor judgment for Georgia to open gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, salons, and more on Friday, it really will help to have data from a state with a worse outbreak per capita than CA, about what happens when NPIs are dropped too soon.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - dabigv13 - 04-20-2020

We'll need to wait two or three weeks to see the second spike, but I'm guessing this reopening will be temporary.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - teejers1 - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 03:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As much as it seems like poor judgment for Georgia to open gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, salons, and more on Friday, it really will help to have data from a state with a worse outbreak per capita than CA, about what happens when NPIs are dropped too soon.

It strikes me as early.

I'm most interested in hospital capacity/ability to take on additional patients, which undoubtedly will be forthcoming (and there's nothing inherently wrong with that expected development).

Also expect self-regulation to help dampen "second wave," which I think is inevitable.

If things get out of hand at hospitals (or are expected to), then we'll see a shutdown. Again, I'm not going to "blame" GA for going too early, unless their numbers now show an overrun is inevitable, and they just said "WTF, who cares?" But judging from the posts here, I'll be in the minority on that front . . .

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - burger - 04-20-2020

I agree that this is too early.

One thing that I'm curious to see is how many people actually take advantage of these openings. Will people really flock back to gyms and hair salons? Or will voluntary social distancing replace mandatory? And can gyms, etc. be profitable if their customer base is reduced by some significant percentage?

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Goose - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 04:07 PM)burger Wrote: And can gyms, etc. be profitable if their customer base is reduced by some significant percentage?

Gyms are, I think, a special case. Most people who go to the gym have a membership, usually for a significant length of time. The gym only cares about the shutdown if it goes on long enough that many memberships expire.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - BostonCard - 04-20-2020

Well, let's hope the experiment works and that the reopening is not accompanied by a surge in cases. Although that's not what I am expecting, here's a clear case where I would love to be wrong.

BC

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Snorlax94 - 04-20-2020

At first I thought, you know, it might work. Letting people get a haircut, or get their nails done, or eat out in a spaced-out restaurant with outdoor seating, especially if staff members are wearing masks — that might work. I actually wonder if we could open more places — if people shopped on the phone or over the Internet, and it was a mom and pop operation, maybe a lot of small businesses could be saved with only 1 household of workers and curbside pickup. Then I read the part about georgia opening gyms (packing a lot of people indoors while they pant, grunt, and generally breathe hard) and movie theatres and thought, why would they open those places first?? Movie theatres??

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - cardcrimson - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 03:59 PM)teejers1 Wrote: I'm most interested in hospital capacity/ability to take on additional patients, which undoubtedly will be forthcoming (and there's nothing inherently wrong with that expected development).

Looks like there is plenty of capacity. Lots of available beds and they're at about 50% of ICU beds. Also, they've only been locked down for a little over two weeks at this point, so for the most part, they've already been open for business for much of the pandemic.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia

Not sure I'd be opening gyms right away, either. However, kids can't even play catch or run on a track here by order of the government. Somewhere in the middle is some common sense.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Leftcoast - 04-20-2020

Did Georgia really include opening gyms and movie theaters in phase 1?!?! I suspect people are grossly overestimating the level of self-quarantine citizens will adopt if they believe the government is being foolhardy with their health.

It would be better for everyone if opening up works for Georgia but I have little expectation it will. It's like this - If tomorrow my neighbor throws a quarter into a wishing well and buys United Airlines stock I will wish him well. BUT, I certainly won't buy airline stock myself until the underlying data suggests a vaccine is coming! Wishful thinking is a bad investment strategy and an even worse idea for health policy.

(But maybe this thing really is seasonal and hates heat and humidity. Georgia's experiment will let us know but I'm glad California is making data based decisions rather than using a wishing well.)

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Farm93 - 04-20-2020

Georgia had almost 100 COVID19 deaths yesterday. They also have more deaths per capita than CA. This does not appear to be a good choice for an early ending of social distancing.

The good news is that if it works in GA it will work in a lot of places, and I am more than happy to let some other state serve as the national guinea pigs. The one catch is that a number of employees will lose the choice to continue working at home because of the change. I feel for those citizens.

I guess we will find out around Mother's Day if this was a good idea.

Any chance CA could mandate a 14 day quarantine on anyone arriving on flights from GA until mid-May? (Yes, I am looking at you Delta).

Texas did that for NY and CA relatively early in the COVID process, so there is a precedent for such a directive.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - cardcrimson - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 05:04 PM)Farm93 Wrote: This does not appear to be a good choice for an early ending of social distancing.

From what I've read about Georgia, they are NOT ending social distancing. They are opening businesses that will enforce social distancing in their establishments. The devil is in the details and the proof will be in the pudding, but, it will be the new normal we all will be facing. Glad they're giving it a go and I hope they're successful, especially as I've family in Atlanta.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - 82lsju - 04-20-2020

GA

Quote:
Kemp said that gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, beauty shops and salons, barbershops, body art studios, and more would be able to open Friday, April 24.

Kemp said the reopening of these businesses "would not be business-as-usual" and would require companies to implement changes to ensure sanitation mandates and social distancing.

The governor also said that movie theaters and restaurants, which were previously banned from in-person dining, would be allowed to reopen on Monday, April 27 with certain restrictions to be announced later this week.

Bars, nightclubs, and amusement parks would remain closed until further notice, the governor said.

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/kemp-restaurants-other-businesses-to-reopen-in-georgia-amid-covid-19-fight

TN

Quote:Lee said most businesses in the state will be allowed to open May 1, but he stressed that protective measures must continue

https://wreg.com/news/tennessee-governor-announces-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/

SC

Quote:
Governor Henry McMaster issued a new executive order Monday which allows the reopening of some retails stores.

He also removed restrictions on public access points to the state’s beaches, public piers, docks, and wharfs, while delegating to local officials the authority to restrict access, as they see fit.

Beaches can reopen at noon Tuesday, if local officials want to open them. Up to local officials.

Still in effect: Law enforcement can break up groups of three or more anywhere including beaches.

Some nonessential stores can reopen, including department stores, flea markets, florists, bookstores and music shops. Must use social distancing.

Occupancy in each store will be limited to five customers per 1,000 square feet of retail space or 20% occupancy, whichever is less.

School decision will come later.

https://www.wyff4.com/article/gov-henry-mcmaster-to-reopen-retail-stores-on-tuesday-reports-say/32208381

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - teejers1 - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 05:34 PM)82lsju Wrote: GA

Quote:
Kemp said that gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, beauty shops and salons, barbershops, body art studios, and more would be able to open Friday, April 24.

Kemp said the reopening of these businesses "would not be business-as-usual" and would require companies to implement changes to ensure sanitation mandates and social distancing.

The governor also said that movie theaters and restaurants, which were previously banned from in-person dining, would be allowed to reopen on Monday, April 27 with certain restrictions to be announced later this week.

Bars, nightclubs, and amusement parks would remain closed until further notice, the governor said.
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/kemp-restaurants-other-businesses-to-reopen-in-georgia-amid-covid-19-fight

TN

Quote:Lee said most businesses in the state will be allowed to open May 1, but he stressed that protective measures must continue

https://wreg.com/news/tennessee-governor-announces-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/

SC

Quote:
Governor Henry McMaster issued a new executive order Monday which allows the reopening of some retails stores.

He also removed restrictions on public access points to the state’s beaches, public piers, docks, and wharfs, while delegating to local officials the authority to restrict access, as they see fit.

Beaches can reopen at noon Tuesday, if local officials want to open them. Up to local officials.

Still in effect: Law enforcement can break up groups of three or more anywhere including beaches.

Some nonessential stores can reopen, including department stores, flea markets, florists, bookstores and music shops. Must use social distancing.

Occupancy in each store will be limited to five customers per 1,000 square feet of retail space or 20% occupancy, whichever is less.

School decision will come later.
https://www.wyff4.com/article/gov-henry-mcmaster-to-reopen-retail-stores-on-tuesday-reports-say/32208381

Hmm. Are these southern state governors trying to grease the wheel for SEC football in the fall???

Gyms? That strikes me as crazy.
Theaters a little less so, but that's only if there is major seating spacing (I still wouldn't do it).

Nail and hair salons don't bother me as much - again, if there are distancing rules in place (and protective wear for workers and customers).

And can't you just open up a subset of restaurants with established spacing and health plans in place . . . and see how that goes for a month? then re-examine things?

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - oregontim - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 03:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As much as it seems like poor judgment for Georgia to open gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, salons, and more on Friday, it really will help to have data from a state with a worse outbreak per capita than CA, about what happens when NPIs are dropped too soon.

What worries me is the possibility that decisions like this one are being influenced by political considerations, as the push for reopening seems to come from one side of our horribly divided political spectrum. It's looking like some kind of perverse loyalty test. I'm pretty sure that before 2016, regardless of which party held the white house, decisions would have been made without regard to political affiliation.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Goose - 04-20-2020

(04-20-2020, 07:38 PM)oregontim Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 03:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As much as it seems like poor judgment for Georgia to open gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, salons, and more on Friday, it really will help to have data from a state with a worse outbreak per capita than CA, about what happens when NPIs are dropped too soon.

What worries me is the possibility that decisions like this one are being influenced by political considerations, as the push for reopening seems to come from one side of our horribly divided political spectrum. It's looking like some kind of perverse loyalty test. I'm pretty sure that before 2016, regardless of which party held the white house, decisions would have been made without regard to political affiliation.

I don't believe this "political" in the Republican-Democrat sense. Some states have lots of citizens that believe the risk of COVID-19 is low enough that opening up makes sense. Other states have many fewer such citizens. I am not sure those citizens (both groups) are "correct", but that is the politics that is driving this IMHO.
Don't look now but I am getting a "vibe" from people here in NorCal that things will start to open up in a couple of weeks. That may be wrong, but lots of people seem to feel that is what is going to happen. I really hope that all authorities pay attention to the "phase 1" gating conditions in the Federal plan. It is not clear to me that Georgia meets those requirements, but then I don't know what their tracking and testing capability actually is. We shall soon see.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - pefloresjr - 04-20-2020

I support Newsom's guidelines for reopening and they are pretty similar to Trump's/the federal government's. It seems pretty clear that Georgia does not have those capabilities yet so I don't think they are quite ready and hope for the best. However, even under the guidelines, it is a phased reopening. I keep calling it a soft reopening because it will be very phased if done according to the guidelines. I do think that even if an obviously politically motivated governor opens too much too soon, it will be mitigated by many people's community, people-power based social distancing. However, that also means that the economic recovery will also be soft and slow because self regulation regarding social distancing. That doesn't mean that we have nothing to worry about and should open everything and "let the market decide." It does mean that we need to be able to monitor how it is working and adjusting as needed in different places. I don't think we should put any lives at risk because I need a haircut, I can get by and have my wife cut my hair if needed. It is fine to use common sense in reopening where we can do so safely but it is ridiculous to act like any error in being over conservative to try to save lives is a grave infringement on our democratic freedoms.

Cheers,
Pete F.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - 82 Card - 04-21-2020

Looking at the Johns-Hopkins US map, it looks like the hardest hit areas of Georgia are a series of rural counties with predominately black population in the southwest part of the state. The totals for each county are not great. However, the cases/100K numbers rival NYC with Randolph coming in higher than The Bronx. I suspect the powers that be in Georgia pay no attention to these counties and cannot conceive of the the pandemic expanding to their nice neighborhoods.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - Farm93 - 04-21-2020

(04-20-2020, 05:28 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 05:04 PM)Farm93 Wrote: This does not appear to be a good choice for an early ending of social distancing.

From what I've read about Georgia, they are NOT ending social distancing. They are opening businesses that will enforce social distancing in their establishments. The devil is in the details and the proof will be in the pudding, but, it will be the new normal we all will be facing. Glad they're giving it a go and I hope they're successful, especially as I've family in Atlanta.

How exactly does one get a massage without violating social distancing?
How does one get their hair styled at a salon without violating social distancing?

Maybe customer-to-customer social distancing will be maintained, but social distancing will be ending. In either setting employees will touch and be very close to almost a dozen customers per day even if customer-to-customer distancing remains enforced.

The choice of businesses in this directive sounds really quirky, and I can't help but think about that one compilation of Italian Mayors where the mayor asks/explains why you need your hair styled in your closed casket.

I fear without appropriate testing or tracing Emory will be VERY busy in mid-May. The mayor of Atlanta sounds disappointed. I think she knows this is happening now for all the wrong reasons. If I had family in GA I would tell them they will be MUCH safer-at-home for the next three weeks.

FWIW - For those eager to give things a try I would have thought Texas has the best case. Given that state's low population density areas, fondness for using space, and relatively low COVID death rate, I think they make a better case study. Still too early even for them IMO, but at least it makes more sense than GA.

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - 82lsju - 04-21-2020

Quote:But even if [movie theater] employees were able to return to work swiftly and without the virus, there’s also a question of liability. Theater owners are still exploring legal issues they could face, should audiences get infected with COVID-19 from going to their movie theater. It’s uncertain whether the burden would fall on the exhibitor or the state.

As it stands, theater chains are still trying to determine what their safety procedures will be when they’re allowed to reopen. Some, such as AMC, have signaled they may take patrons’ temperatures, while others, such as Cinemark, have played down that possibility. They are also working out the best way to ensure that their customers adhere to social distancing dictates, and are outlining how to seat moviegoers to ensure they aren’t coughed on and are six feet away from other patrons. And that’s if customers can be convinced it’s safe to return in the first place.

Another major impediment is the lack of fresh content available to show on the big screen. Hollywood studios aren’t releasing new movies for at least a month, when Universal’s comedy “The King of Staten Island” opens on June 19 and Warner Bros.’ sci-fi thriller “Tenet” debuts on July 17. Almost all other films scheduled to release this summer have been shelved or postponed, except for Disney’s live-action “Mulan” on July 24 and Warner Bros.’ comic book adventure “Wonder Woman 1984 on Aug. 14. That means even if exhibitors are able to turn the lights back on in some venues, there’s not a lot of compelling product to offer. They would likely be forced to screen library titles and a few lower-budget indies.

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/movie-theaters-georgia-cannot-reopen-1234585289/

RE: Georgia rolling the dice - stupac2 - 04-21-2020

On the topic of Georgia, this is a pretty caustic take on the rational behind the governor's decision: https://decaturish.com/2020/04/dear-decaturish-governors-decision-to-reopen-businesses-is-political-murder/

Note that I know pretty much nothing about Georgia politics, but the list of business that are reopening vs those that aren't is pretty weird, once you think about it.