What is happening in Southern California? - Printable Version
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What is happening in Southern California? - Leftcoast - 04-25-2020
What's happening in Southern California?
Deaths and infections in Southern California continue to grow despite completing our 5th week of shutdown. Over half of California's deaths and cases are in LA County (it makes up 25% of the state's population), California's highest death rate per 100K is LA county, and LA's death rate continues to climb long after the Bay Area death rate has stabilized.
So, why is LA, and to a lesser extent Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties, falling behind the Northern California counties where the nation's infection began? I've seen various theories including, a later shutdown, poor compliance to the shelter-in-place restrictions, more cramped/poor housing where shelter-in-place is difficult, and a greater rate of contagion within skilled nursing homes. All of these explanations seem plausible but not sufficient as LA's smaller Bay Area sister shares most of the same disadvantages. And of course, the virus got a head-start in the Bay Area.
Pressure will mount on Gov. Newsom from mountain and northern counties to adopt a county by county approach if LA continues to struggle while other counties make significant progress. Of course this mirrors at a state level the national dilemma.
Any insight on what's going on in SoCal?
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/los-angeles-county/
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - TreesAndBirds - 04-25-2020
Well this might be part of the answer....
https://www.the-sun.com/news/735979/coronavirus-california-heatwave-ignore-social-distancing-stay-home/
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - pefloresjr - 04-25-2020
They got a later start and Southern Californians just don't have that much of a strong community feeling. I grew up there and the only time I've seen it really show was during the LA Olympics in 1984. They vote in lower percentages and just pay less attention to local and global news. That doesn't mean that most or even that many are flouting the rules, but there are enough people who don't give a damn to cause their numbers to stay higher for a while. I'm sure there are some other more measurable reasons, but most of those also apply to the Bay Area. I hope they do enough to keep it from really spiking.
Cheers,
Pete F.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - stupac2 - 04-25-2020
It kinda looks like LA is where the bay area was a few weeks ago. Given the small difference in SiP timing (it was 3 days between the bay area and statewide orders, right?), maybe it's that the bay had more companies shift to WFH before the order? Although it's been long enough that new deaths would have been infected after the SiP order, right? I guess that basically means that either the SiP order isn't working as well (perhaps via the remaining communal indoor spaces like stores) or there are more violations of it. Could also be randomness/luck, I suppose.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Jskass - 04-25-2020
before we get all comfortable and uppity in NorCal, I have noticed that lots of people are ignoring the mask rules. Went hiking this afternoon with my daughter in the Berkeley hills (Tilden) and a good 1/2 the people had no masks. Not on, and not on their person.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - dabigv13 - 04-25-2020
I think its hitting our lower income communities really hard. LA has some dense neighborhoods full of working class people who can't work from home. These communities also have higher rates of obesity, smoking, diabetes, hypertension.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Snorlax94 - 04-25-2020
I’ve been wondering the same thing about Socal, and agree that lack of compliance, housing density and a later start may contribute. A few other possibilities:
1) Maybe the news isn’t as bad as it looks. It seems like it’s getting easier to get tested there. Maybe they are catching a higher percentage of cases, and hopefully the fatalities will drop to confirm that.
2) It looked like there was a bump in cases 4-8 days after Easter.
3) My impression is that a higher percentage of people in LA work in essential, tightly-packed, indoor industries like food processing, garment production, and manufacturing. The Bay Area is fortunate in that so many people can work from home. Also, those essential industry workers may be more likely to use mass transit.
4) even now, worse air quality
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - stupac2 - 04-25-2020
(04-25-2020, 07:27 PM)Jskass Wrote: before we get all comfortable and uppity in NorCal, I have noticed that lots of people are ignoring the mask rules. Went hiking this afternoon with my daughter in the Berkeley hills (Tilden) and a good 1/2 the people had no masks. Not on, and not on their person.
Masks are only required in areas where you can't reasonably socially distance. Depending on the hike that seems like it could be true there.
What bugs me are the people who don't attempt to give space when it's possible. Most people are good about taking a small detour around me and my four-year-old, but some just walk straight through us. I detour if I have the option, but when you have a small child it's difficult, and sometimes it's not really possible for us but would be for the other people (ie they pass the side trail along the way, we don't). I just tell myself outdoor transfer is really unlikely and hold my breath. Hopefully the kid isn't walking through a covid mist falling to the ground...
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Farm93 - 04-25-2020
(04-25-2020, 07:36 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: I’ve been wondering the same thing about Socal, and agree that lack of compliance, housing density and a later start may contribute. A few other possibilities:Yes, to a lot of those things.
1) Maybe the news isn’t as bad as it looks. It seems like it’s getting easier to get tested there. Maybe they are catching a higher percentage of cases, and hopefully the fatalities will drop to confirm that.
2) It looked like there was a bump in cases 4-8 days after Easter.
3) My impression is that a higher percentage of people in LA work in essential, tightly-packed, indoor industries like food processing, garment production, and manufacturing. The Bay Area is fortunate in that so many people can work from home. Also, those essential industry workers may be more likely to use mass transit.
FWIW - It really is LA county more than the other SoCal counties. LA county has most of the things that tend to fuel community spread as you noted.
The reality has been that California has flattened the curve. Per that strategy we should not expect the CA curve to drop as quickly as the NY or Louisiana experience. I can only imagine that in CA we will see new hospitalizations and potentially fatalities near the current daily rates for a few months.
We lost our old normal in a few days, but it could be several months before we get to a steady state new normal.
UofA President does not expect college football in 2020. Sad, but seems inevitable that the Pac-12 will not have a football season.
https://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcats/football/ua-president-robert-c-robbins-on-footballs-fall-return-my-sense-is-right-now-i/article_d08e11cc-84fc-11ea-ac0c-8b7c51f92115.html
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - M T - 04-25-2020
(04-25-2020, 08:14 PM)Farm93 Wrote: FWIW - It really is LA county more than the other SoCal counties. LA county has most of the things that tend to fuel community spread as you noted.
The reality has been that California has flattened the curve. Per that strategy we should not expect the CA curve to drop as quickly as the NY or Louisiana experience. I can only imagine that in CA we will see new hospitalizations and potentially fatalities near the current daily rates for a few months.
San Diego County: The two largest new cases reported in a single day came this week. After 15 days of less than 100 new cases:
4/20-4/24: 109, 57, 152, 183, 117
Potentially that could come from exposure at family events or church on Easter.
OR it could be more testing: They reported that the 183 was under 6% of the tests, while the overall average has been 6.8% in San Diego County.
Orange County: The largest new cases reported in a single day was April 24 of 124 (previous high was 104).
(124 was 10.3% of the day's tests; average 8.5%)
Los Angeles County: The cases COUNTED in the past week have been more than double the previous week, but that seems to be because of a backlog of results being posted**. On two days they gave the actual daily counts, and then quit doing it.
Apr 14: 670, 472, 399, 567, 642, 334, 4/20: 1491** 293, 1400** 625, 1318**, 1081**, 1035**, 607
Since LA County's stats are garbaged, all we can say is that San Diego and Orange Counties have spiked recently. L.A. County may or may not have spiked (as we don't have the proper numbers this week, or for some period before this week).
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Farm93 - 04-26-2020
Really can’t use cases because California has not tested a lot. CA is something like 38th in per capita testing.
LA county changed their policy this week to allow more people to get tested outside of health care providers with symptoms.
Given the changes in test eligibility in the region and the low test rate prior to the change tracking cases is not particularly meaningful.
Given that testing noise a better metric would be hospitalizations but that is not as accessible online.
Therefore the death rate is the one to use. It has problems too as probable deaths and at home deaths might be missed too.
Still best we have.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - stupac2 - 04-26-2020
Nate Silver argues that, given the problems with other sources of data, the best thing to look at is percentage of positive tests: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/ (that article is about something else but it's discussed in there, or at least linked).
This isn't all that intuitive, but I think the various modeling scenarios show it to be the case.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Mick - 04-26-2020
(04-25-2020, 07:27 PM)Jskass Wrote: before we get all comfortable and uppity in NorCal, I have noticed that lots of people are ignoring the mask rules. Went hiking this afternoon with my daughter in the Berkeley hills (Tilden) and a good 1/2 the people had no masks. Not on, and not on their person.
I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - magnus - 04-26-2020
On many county/state dashboards, when looking at the latest release of numbers, whether it be cases or deaths, make sure to take into account that all those new data points did _not_ happen the day before. Instead, they are what were _recorded_ the day before which might cover cases/deaths from a few days ago. Sometimes a surge in numbers might be a backlog of cases from a particular day in the past.
The epidemiology graphs also are skewed to look better recently because of the incomplete reporting from the last few days.
That said, I'm not sure how the Socal sites are setup, but this all means that it's hard to get an accurate picture until perhaps a week later. =/
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - BostonCard - 04-26-2020
(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)Mick Wrote:(04-25-2020, 07:27 PM)Jskass Wrote: before we get all comfortable and uppity in NorCal, I have noticed that lots of people are ignoring the mask rules. Went hiking this afternoon with my daughter in the Berkeley hills (Tilden) and a good 1/2 the people had no masks. Not on, and not on their person.
I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
In my neighborhood most people out and about don't wear a mask while walking. People are good about maintaining social distancing, even going into the street to maintain a 6+ foot radius. I wear a mask mostly as an advertisment to others to maintain social distancing, but I could easily go out without one and not get dirty looks.
I've noticed that restaurants and other enclosed locations have started requiring facial coverings for entry. I had to go to the bank on Friday, and it required face masks, which is a far cry from the pre-COVID-19 days when facial coverings were prohibited in banks due to concern about robberies.
BC
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - terry - 04-26-2020
Masks are required in certain situations by most of the Bay Area counties -- San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa, Sonoma. Masks are recommended but not required by Santa Clara, Napa, and Solano counties.
From the San Jose Mercury News, the mask requirements are as follows:
Facial coverings are required to be worn by anyone older than 12 while waiting in line or inside any essential business, using public transit, riding in a taxi/Lyft/Uber or seeking healthcare, as well as anytime you come within 6 feet of someone from outside your household.
Businesses have the right to deny service to anyone not wearing a face covering, and BART has said it will require all riders to cover their faces at stations and on trains.
When don't you have to cover your face? Whenever you are alone or only with members of your own household, like in a car or when exercising, as long as you maintain 6 feet of distance at all times. There are some other exceptions, like certain workers who are confined to private offices....
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-bay-area-mask-order-takes-effect-wednesday-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
I carry a mask with me when walking or hiking, but haven't really needed it because it has been possible to maintain a healthy distance from other walkers and hikers.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - JustAnotherFan - 04-26-2020
(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)Mick Wrote:(04-25-2020, 07:27 PM)Jskass Wrote: before we get all comfortable and uppity in NorCal, I have noticed that lots of people are ignoring the mask rules. Went hiking this afternoon with my daughter in the Berkeley hills (Tilden) and a good 1/2 the people had no masks. Not on, and not on their person.
I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
Well that is good news (them yelling at you). But I hope they had masks on when they were yelling because we wouldn't want them to potentially infect you given the possible viral load that comes from someone shouting at you.
(04-26-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I've noticed that restaurants and other enclosed locations have started requiring facial coverings for entry. I had to go to the bank on Friday, and it required face masks, which is a far cry from the pre-COVID-19 days when facial coverings were prohibited in banks due to concern about robberies.
It might depend on who you are.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1247558766545035265[/twitter]
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Mick - 04-26-2020
(04-26-2020, 12:38 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)Mick Wrote: I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
Well that is good news (them yelling at you). But I hope they had masks on when they were yelling because we wouldn't want them to potentially infect you given the possible viral load that comes from someone shouting at you.
(04-26-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I've noticed that restaurants and other enclosed locations have started requiring facial coverings for entry. I had to go to the bank on Friday, and it required face masks, which is a far cry from the pre-COVID-19 days when facial coverings were prohibited in banks due to concern about robberies.
It might depend on who you are.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1247558766545035265[/twitter]
They weren't wearing masks when they yelled at, and spit was indeed flying, but they were across the street. No Seinfeld-ian magic loogie there.
And my local CVS pharmacy in Santa Clara County does require masks for customers.
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - JustAnotherFan - 04-26-2020
(04-26-2020, 02:43 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-26-2020, 12:38 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)Mick Wrote: I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
Well that is good news (them yelling at you). But I hope they had masks on when they were yelling because we wouldn't want them to potentially infect you given the possible viral load that comes from someone shouting at you.
(04-26-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I've noticed that restaurants and other enclosed locations have started requiring facial coverings for entry. I had to go to the bank on Friday, and it required face masks, which is a far cry from the pre-COVID-19 days when facial coverings were prohibited in banks due to concern about robberies.
It might depend on who you are.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1247558766545035265[/twitter]
They weren't wearing masks when they yelled at, and spit was indeed flying, but they were across the street. No Seinfeld-ian magic loogie there.
And my local CVS pharmacy in Santa Clara County does require masks for customers.
Did you yell back at them? This could make for a great episode of Seinfeld. Question is, whose role would it be most appropriate for? Seinfeld, Kramer, Elaine, or George?
RE: What is happening in Southern California? - Mick - 04-26-2020
(04-26-2020, 03:04 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-26-2020, 02:43 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-26-2020, 12:38 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)Mick Wrote: I was out for a walk last night without a mask. No one around, but that didn't stop people in two different cars from slowing down and yelling at me... ;)
Well that is good news (them yelling at you). But I hope they had masks on when they were yelling because we wouldn't want them to potentially infect you given the possible viral load that comes from someone shouting at you.
(04-26-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I've noticed that restaurants and other enclosed locations have started requiring facial coverings for entry. I had to go to the bank on Friday, and it required face masks, which is a far cry from the pre-COVID-19 days when facial coverings were prohibited in banks due to concern about robberies.
It might depend on who you are.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1247558766545035265[/twitter]
They weren't wearing masks when they yelled at, and spit was indeed flying, but they were across the street. No Seinfeld-ian magic loogie there.
And my local CVS pharmacy in Santa Clara County does require masks for customers.
Did you yell back at them? This could make for a great episode of Seinfeld. Question is, whose role would it be most appropriate for? Seinfeld, Kramer, Elaine, or George?
This was a surreal situation. Kramer for sure.