Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic

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Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - JustAnotherFan - 04-26-2020

It seems to me that the anti-vaxx movement has gained some considerable momentum in recent years, particularly in the far right, libertarian, and progressive circles. But it is the more progressive (often affluent) areas that seem to have the most concentrated anti-vaxx sentiment. Manhattan and rich suburbs of NYC, Seattle, Portland, Austin, Asheville (NC), and I believe the Bay Area, as well.

Considering that the focus tends to be on children's vaccination schedules (although a non-trivial amount of browbeating by antivaxxers comes via the annual flu vaccine) I don't think that there has been enough scrutiny on what this movement's effect will be on people getting the pandemic vaccine if one becomes available.

Questions for you all, do you believe this movement will inhibit the adoption of the potential vaccine in a way (either by sheer numbers or by changing public perception of the safety) that undermines public health? Do you believe that government mandates will further strengthen the movement in a way that makes adoption more difficult? Will the general geographic overlap (metro areas) of the hotspots for the disease and of the antivaxx communities compel the antivaxx community to move more aggressively toward taking the potential vaccine or will it only exacerbate the problem?

This has been in the back of my mind the past couple of days and I'd love to hear what others on this board have to think about it. A quick internet search brings up multiple articles but I haven't seen the conversation on this forum.

Follow up question, will people be more or likely to get the flu vaccine this year given that could have a significant impact on our ability to deal with a second wave of COVID-19 cases this coming fall/winter?

Some humor: https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/gomer/85708

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Hurlburt88 - 04-26-2020

Without studying the matter carefully, I believe that the anti-vaxxer minority will not materially impede efforts to contain COVID-19. I base this on a perceived willingness of most persons to get a vaccine, which will dramatically slow community spread and thus convey benefit across society. Even if 100% of persons get the vaccine, I will also assume imperfect immune response and also virus evolution, so no way to totally stamp this out.

I contrast this with a measles situation, where if 10% of persons do not get the vaccine, it can create pockets where the disease can evolve and thus threaten even some vaccinated persons eventually--so high incentive to vaccinate as many as possible, and the anti-vaxxers post a threat.

Interested in more views on this!

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - stupac2 - 04-26-2020

They say there are no atheists in foxholes, but at the same time people can really double-down on their beliefs in times of distress. I'm sure this will vary based on the person, the types that are anti-vaccination because they inherently distrust all medicine will probably not come around, who knows on the others? I won't try to understand why so many people in my cohort are against vaccines, it's absolutely mind-blowing to me.

I would hope flu shot rates go up, but it might be tricky to do. Getting one at Kaiser last year was a social distancing nightmare, with a long line in a small hallway. It might be difficult to do it right if significantly more people are getting them. Maybe someone can set up a mobile vaccination service, they come to you and you get it in your driveway! Sign me up.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - BobK - 04-26-2020

As a parent with three kids/in laws in education let me say the anti vaccine people are a brobdingnagian concern In Their mind to re opening schools. A plus all in California and Oregon.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - OutsiderFan - 04-26-2020

The anti-vax movement is one of Russia's favorite weapons to use against the United States, because Russia would love nothing better than to see Measles and Polio wreaking havoc in the U.S. Anyone who doesn't get vaccinated for the common childhood diseases should be required by law to identify themselves, so responsible people can stay TF away from them.

If people think Covid-19 is contagious. They should try Measles.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Mick - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The anti-vax movement is one of Russia's favorite weapons to use against the United States, because Russia would love nothing better than to see Measles and Polio wreaking havoc in the U.S. Anyone who doesn't get vaccinated for the common childhood diseases should be required by law to identify themselves, so responsible people can stay TF away from them.

If people think Covid-19 is contagious. They should try Measles.

+1. +1,000. Flat earthers, don't vaccinate, astrologers, all the same to me.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Snorlax94 - 04-26-2020

I worry it may be a problem. Anti-vaxxers are not “some tiny percentage” — it might average out to be a relatively small percentage, but in some communities, they can be a sizable percentage of the population.

“ The most recent figures show that California now falls below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommended vaccination rate of 95 percent, considered necessary to protect a community from disease outbreaks through herd immunity. Those numbers also obscure big differences in vaccination rates from one zip code to another, from as low as 19 percent in one community in northern Los Angeles County to as high as 99 percent in Watsonville, a farm town in Santa Cruz County.”

Part of it comes down to how effective a Covid-19 vaccine is. If it’s 70% effective, that *should* be enough for herd immunity, but what if you’re part of the 30% who, unbeknownst to you, didn’t gain immunity, and you drive into one of those anti-vaxxer areas on your way to Disneyland...

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - BostonCard - 04-26-2020

As a rough guide, herd immunity is achieved when 1 - 1/R0 of the population are vaccinated, adjusted for the efficacy of the vaccine. So, if R0 is 2, as long as half the population is vaccinated you get her immunity when half the population is vaccinated. If R0 is 3 (like COVID-19), you need 2/3 of the population to be vaccinated. If R0 is approaching 10 (like measels), you need 90% of the population to be vaccinated. But again, this has to be adjusted for the efficacy of the vaccine. This is high for measels, but if the COVID-19 vaccine is only 75% effective, then you will need a larger share vaccinated.

BC

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - 2006alum - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 09:51 AM)Mick Wrote:
(04-26-2020, 09:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The anti-vax movement is one of Russia's favorite weapons to use against the United States, because Russia would love nothing better than to see Measles and Polio wreaking havoc in the U.S. Anyone who doesn't get vaccinated for the common childhood diseases should be required by law to identify themselves, so responsible people can stay TF away from them.

If people think Covid-19 is contagious. They should try Measles.

+1. +1,000. Flat earthers, don't vaccinate, astrologers, all the same to me.

Hey man, my Cancer Moon never hurt nobody!

Speaking from a law and policy perspective, I feel confident in saying that if and when a vaccine that has been proven to immunize against SARS-COV-2 is widely available, state and local governments will be on firm legal standing to exclude anti-vaxxers from schools, government buildings, and other public accommodations. The same will be true of large event private employers like theme parks, theaters, and sports stadiums.

If someone wanted to make money in two years, they'd start designing nifty vaccination passports to flash for scanning. I suspect we'll be carrying those widely if we're lucky enough to have an immunizing vaccine.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - JustAnotherFan - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 10:17 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: “ The most recent figures show that California now falls below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommended vaccination rate of 95 percent, considered necessary to protect a community from disease outbreaks through herd immunity. Those numbers also obscure big differences in vaccination rates from one zip code to another, from as low as 19 percent in one community in northern Los Angeles County to as high as 99 percent in Watsonville, a farm town in Santa Cruz County.”

Wow! 19% vaccination rate? Why wouldn't they name that town? Does anyone know the name of that town?

(04-26-2020, 10:34 AM)2006alum Wrote: If someone wanted to make money in two years, they'd start designing nifty vaccination passports to flash for scanning. I suspect we'll be carrying those widely if we're lucky enough to have an immunizing vaccine.

This sounds good but I'd be concerned about those who cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons. It'd be awful to see them get excluded even though they are not technically part of the problem. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/should-not-vacc.html

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Goose - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 10:34 AM)2006alum Wrote: If someone wanted to make money in two years, they'd start designing nifty vaccination passports to flash for scanning. I suspect we'll be carrying those widely if we're lucky enough to have an immunizing vaccine.

You mean like the old yellow card with your immunization records on it that everyone who traveled in/to Asia used to carry with their passport?

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Snorlax94 - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 12:06 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:
(04-26-2020, 10:17 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: “ The most recent figures show that California now falls below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommended vaccination rate of 95 percent, considered necessary to protect a community from disease outbreaks through herd immunity. Those numbers also obscure big differences in vaccination rates from one zip code to another, from as low as 19 percent in one community in northern Los Angeles County to as high as 99 percent in Watsonville, a farm town in Santa Cruz County.”

Wow! 19% vaccination rate? Why wouldn't they name that town? Does anyone know the name of that town?

The text was from this Wired article but I didn’t see that exact town.

https://www.wired.com/story/californias-vaccination-rate-slips-as-medical-exemptions-rise/

But this LATimes article points out clusters of measles vaccination rates at schools under 50% and names names. Many clusters are in SoCal which is why I make the connection to Disneyland.

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-vaccination-rates-drop-20190701-story.html

“Among kindergartners, schools with high medical exemptions rates tend to be Waldorf schools, which [color=var(--primaryBodyLinkColor)]have come under scrutiny in California for their relatively low vaccination rates. Waldorf Schools practice a holistic approach to learning and are based on the philosophy of Austrian thinker Rudolf Steiner, who was critical of many aspects of medicine during his era, the late 19th and early 20th centuries.[/color]

Hannah Henry said she pulled her three children from a Waldorf school in Napa four years ago because the vaccination rate was below 50%.”

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - JustAnotherFan - 04-26-2020

(04-26-2020, 12:35 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: “Among kindergartners, schools with high medical exemptions rates tend to be Waldorf schools, which [color=var(--primaryBodyLinkColor)]have come under scrutiny in California for their relatively low vaccination rates. Waldorf Schools practice a holistic approach to learning and are based on the philosophy of Austrian thinker Rudolf Steiner, who was critical of many aspects of medicine during his era, the late 19th and early 20th centuries.[/color]

Hannah Henry said she pulled her three children from a Waldorf school in Napa four years ago because the vaccination rate was below 50%.”

Thanks for sharing. I read an article this morning from a Texas paper that focused on Austin as a place with a high concentration and they pointed out the Waldorf school as having less than a 50% vaccination rate. I imagine that Waldorf Schools may be directly or indirectly advertising that their schools are "safe" spaces for the unvaccinated community.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - fullmetal - 04-27-2020

That word safe doesn't mean what they think it means. But if a large proportion of the population gets the vaccine and no side effects are observed, it may sway their opinion.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - 2006alum - 04-27-2020

(04-26-2020, 12:06 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: This sounds good but I'd be concerned about those who cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons. It'd be awful to see them get excluded even though they are not technically part of the problem. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/should-not-vacc.html

It'd be easy to register them as medically exempted and flash a pass similar to a handicapped permit. But I personally think vaccination badges will be much more feasible than immunity badges, unless the government creates a formal certification process with a specific test (or tests) that has a very very low rate of false positives and whose results can be formalized in documentation akin to vaccination cards. By the time such a system is in place, I don't think a vaccine would be far behind, and the latter will be much easier to administer nation-wide without creating perverse incentives.

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - JustAnotherFan - 04-28-2020

US was warned of threat from anti-vaxxers in event of pandemic

FBI-connected researchers suggested biggest threat in controlling outbreak was from ‘those who categorically reject vaccination’

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/27/us-warning-pandemic-anti-vaxxers

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - BostonCard - 04-29-2020

https://www.foxnews.com/health/groups-sow-doubt-about-coronavirus-vaccine-before-one-even-exists

Quote:In recent weeks, vaccine opponents have made several unsubstantiated claims, including allegations that vaccine trials will be dangerously rushed or that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, is blocking cures to enrich vaccine makers. They’ve also falsely claimed that Microsoft founder Bill Gates wants to use a vaccine to inject microchips into people — or to cull 15 percent of the world’s population.

*sigh*

BC

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - JustAnotherFan - 04-29-2020

(04-29-2020, 02:48 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.foxnews.com/health/groups-sow-doubt-about-coronavirus-vaccine-before-one-even-exists

Quote:In recent weeks, vaccine opponents have made several unsubstantiated claims, including allegations that vaccine trials will be dangerously rushed or that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, is blocking cures to enrich vaccine makers. They’ve also falsely claimed that Microsoft founder Bill Gates wants to use a vaccine to inject microchips into people — or to cull 15 percent of the world’s population.

*sigh*

BC

It's sad that they don't understand what strategy is most likely to cull 15% of the world's population ...

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - Snorlax94 - 05-05-2020

I never would’ve thought people would go *this* far, but by now, nothing should surprise me.

‘COVID-19 parties’ reportedly held in Walla Walla County to spread virus
By: KIRO 7 News Staff
Updated: May 5, 2020 - 3:39 PM

WALLA WALLA, Wash. — As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Walla Walla County continues to rise, public health officials said they have been receiving reports of COVID-19 “parties” being held in the community.
At the “parties,” noninfected people mingle with an infected person to try and catch the virus, health officials said in a news release.
The CDC said parents, in the past, have participated in “chickenpox parties” to intentionally expose unvaccinated children in hopes they would get the disease and beat it while still young and healthy.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/covid-19-parties-reportedly-held-walla-walla-county-spread-virus/JLBYPRTSZZEP5PBQ6TTIDPAMZ4/

RE: Anti-Vaxxers' potential impact on the pandemic - M T - 05-07-2020

Smells like click-bait.

"Walla Walla County officials recall claims people were hosting coronavirus parties"