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WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - 81alum - 05-02-2020
Our annual "looking ahead" thread.
Of course, first we have to come to grips with the possibility that there might not be any basketball, or it might be delayed, or it might be played in empty gyms.
But for now I'll get us started on the assumption that they actually play. Here are my observations:
1) There won't be a chance to install a new offense, and the freshmen won't be able to contribute right away. I imagine Covid is going to crimp preparation in multiple ways. It takes freshmen a lot of time to acclimate to college ball, and the epidemic will probably shorten any prep time, or the season, or both. Teams that don't need a lot of prep to learn intricate offenses or defenses will do better at the start of the season than we will, for that reason. So it could be a rough start for us.
2) To start the season the post play will be even more by committee than it was last year. Dodson, Jerome, Prechtel, Belibi, and Brink will all get rotated in and out of the 5 and 4. I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the ball when I consider Dodson. Every year I think the next will be her breakout. She showed flashes after she came back last year that she was on track, and her defense is excellent, so she will get time. As I said, I doubt that Brink will adjust quickly but will get more time as the year goes on. Prechtel and Belibi will probably start right where they left off--with inconsistent performances but steadily improving. I don't think anyone knows which of those 5 will get the lion's share of the minutes.
3) Jones, Lexie, and Williams are going to start and get most of the minutes in key games. Those three seem settled to me. Lacey, Jump, Wilson and Brown are our depth at guard. Van Gytenbeek and Nnopu will of course get time early in the season to see how quickly they adjust, but I just don't expect the freshmen to be ready this year. Lacy, Jump, Wilson, and Brown are all four good players--each with different skills. Can Brown and Wilson and Lacey improve on offense? Can Jump improve on defense? It will be fun to watch them develop.
4) I'm not convinced that the Princeton is the best offense for a team with one or two star offensive players. It is better when all five are equally talented at both finishing and shooting, and that probably won't be the case. But I don't see that it is feasibly to revise the offense over this summer. But it can evolve. I would fully expect Jones to become an even more important scorer for us. She needs to practice her jump shooting from a distance, however, so defenses can't just sag off of her. It would be great if Lexie could put on some muscle mass and start attacking in the paint a bit more, generating free throws with contact. Kiana just needs to keep being Kiana--she really does not have much to improve, although I am sure that Tara will find something.
So how will we do this year if we have a full season (unlikely.)
This is the first year in a long while where I think we are favored to win the Pac 12. Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon will be difficult games, and the way the schedule is put together could tilt it a little more toward us or against us. But if Haley continues to develop and we steer clear of more injuries, I think Tara can get it done against those three teams. We could drop away games against them, but I am pretty confident in this group.
Looking beyond the Pac 12, I think we make a deep run in the NCAAs. I believe we ought to be a final four team this year.
Best case scenario: We stay mostly injury free. Haley Jones develops into an offensive star, our bigs settle into a productive rotation that works on both ends of the court, Lexie starts looking like the second coming of McPhee, and Wilson, Brown and Van Gytenbeek prove to be effective point guards that can keep Williams from wearing out. This is Tara's third natty.
Worst case scenario: Jones comes back but is hampered by lingering effects of her injury. None of the bigs progresses any further than they did last year--we have already seen all they have to give. The lack of summer and practice keep any of the freshmen from being ready to play. The offense depends too heavily on Lexie and Williams. A resurgent Oregon and Arizona handle us and we sink to third in the Pac 12, and go on to lose in the elite eight.
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BobK - 05-02-2020
Always love your summaries but lol
If worse case is elite 8 what a ride
I believe Brink will contribute right away and that we will use two post players more often than not.
Jones will be ready if you were on her instagram Q and A today
Three point shooting is always a key both to the obvious three is better than two plus it opens more the inside
The key to our season is Stanford opening on time. Because other schools like Oregon, Baylor and South Carolina will be.
Tara has always said we won’t be adding weight thru our S&C but will add strength.
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BosCard - 05-02-2020
I think our worst case scenario is that we look a lot like last year with games against teams like UCLA and Arizona being a toss-up. Against top-ranked competition (e.g. South Carolina or UConn) we would run the risk of getting blown out like what Oregon did to us last year.
However, in the best case, we are comfortably beating UCLA and Arizona. We are also one of the top-ranked teams ourselves and games against other top-ranked competition are very competitive and a toss-up.
I think the difference between those two scenarios depends on the offense of Prechtel and Belibi.
We know Prechtel is a good shooter and she should continue doing that but the next level for her is developing a consistent post-up game. It could be back to the basket moves or since she is a good shooter with a soft touch, just a little short jump shot (something Hebard from Oregon did really well). If Prechtel is a consistent post threat then teams will have to collapse to defend her which opens up the offense for Williams/Lexie on the wing or Jones/Belibi cutting to the basket.
With Belibi, the next level is having her slash to the basket more. There were many times last year when she had the ball and was a rip move and one or two steps away from a layup however she was often hesitant and passed the ball back out to the perimeter. She is strong and has great body control and needs to take those drives more consistently as she will get a layup or foul almost every time.
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - 81alum - 05-02-2020
(05-02-2020, 05:08 PM)BobK Wrote: Always love your summaries but lolYes, I meant it too. I am very positive on the team this year. If we win fewer than three games in the NCAAs I will be surprised and deeply disappointed. A complete cancellation of the season would be a double disaster, considering how good we could potentially be. There are a couple of other seasons over the last decade I'd much rather have scratched :P
If worse case is elite 8 what a ride
So Bob: of Dodson, Prechtel, Brink, Belibi, and Jerome, which two will be starting at the end of the year?
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - PVTree - 05-03-2020
I'd put Wilson as the primary PG backup, at least firmly in the guard rotation ahead of Brown and Jump.
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BobK - 05-03-2020
81 great question on the posts Jerome won’t be one of the four and the four will be rotating
Out on a limb here lol
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BosCard - 05-03-2020
(05-03-2020, 06:48 AM)BobK Wrote: 81 great question on the posts Jerome won’t be one of the four and the four will be rotating
Out on a limb here lol
I say it will be Dodson and Prechtel starting. Dodson because we know Tara loves defense and Dodson is a very good defender. She could improve a little bit in terms of post defense against say the likes of Taylor Jones at Oregon St, but she is at her best when switched on to perimeter players. She is quick enough to get out to 3 point shooters and similarly quick enough to stay close to slashers and use her length and timing to block their shots. Because of Dodson, we would then need a shooting big for spacing and Prechtel is a great shooter. I think Belibi will play a lot as well. I don't expect Brink to play a lot of minutes her freshman year because of Dodson's defense and because Prechtel and Belibi have so much potential on offense and you want to give them a lot of reps. But if Brink does get significant minutes then we will be in good shape because it will mean she is that good. She can shoot the three but only recently started doing that and doesn't have the strength yet to be a low post banger. If she does get minutes, I imagine it will be as a 4 playing a similar role as Satou Sabally did at Oregon, namely some 3 point shooting but being most effective on drives to the basket.
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - Jskass - 05-03-2020
so does it sound like Dodson (tandem with/backed up by) Belibi and Prechtel (backed up by Brink)? I agree I don't see Jerome getting meaningful minutes. Though given that Tara sometimes likes to start upper classmen (seniors in particular) for just a few minutes, I wonder if she occasionally starts briefly?
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BobK - 05-03-2020
Having seen Brink play, she is that good. :)
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - 81alum - 05-03-2020
(05-03-2020, 02:36 AM)PVTree Wrote: I'd put Wilson as the primary PG backup, at least firmly in the guard rotation ahead of Brown and Jump.Absolutely. A whopper of an oversight on my part. I guess my brain had not caught up to the fact she is coming back. Anna can be a terrific defender too against certain kinds of players.
Which player do the rest of you think will be the most positive big SURPRISE next season? Here are a few candidates:
1) Wilson starts draining 3s like she did early in her career, and the combination of her defense and 40% three point shooting gets her long minutes even in tight games.
2) Brink shows herself to be just as mature a player coming in as Jones was, and becomes a starter by January.
3) Dodson finally conquers her offensive nerves, and becomes Stanford's Ruthy Hebard, shooting over 60% and averaging a double double a game.
4) Jenna Brown shows off a stop and pop jump shot that makes her a consistent offensive threat and moves her up in the rotation.
5) Van Gytenbeek is so accomplished at point that she winds up starting by mid season, moving Williams to the 2 and shaking up the rotation.
Of these 5, which is most likely to happen? Are there other plausible candidates for biggest surprise?
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - BosCard - 05-03-2020
(05-03-2020, 12:07 PM)81alum Wrote:(05-03-2020, 02:36 AM)PVTree Wrote: I'd put Wilson as the primary PG backup, at least firmly in the guard rotation ahead of Brown and Jump.Absolutely. A whopper of an oversight on my part. I guess my brain had not caught up to the fact she is coming back. Anna can be a terrific defender too against certain kinds of players.
Which player do the rest of you think will be the most positive big SURPRISE next season? Here are a few candidates:
1) Wilson starts draining 3s like she did early in her career, and the combination of her defense and 40% three point shooting gets her long minutes even in tight games.
2) Brink shows herself to be just as mature a player coming in as Jones was, and becomes a starter by January.
3) Dodson finally conquers her offensive nerves, and becomes Stanford's Ruthy Hebard, shooting over 60% and averaging a double double a game.
4) Jenna Brown shows off a stop and pop jump shot that makes her a consistent offensive threat and moves her up in the rotation.
5) Van Gytenbeek is so accomplished at point that she winds up starting by mid season, moving Williams to the 2 and shaking up the rotation.
Of these 5, which is most likely to happen? Are there other plausible candidates for biggest surprise?
I think 2 is the most likely. What do I want the most to happen? Definitely 4 or 5 as those two are our point guards once Williams graduates.
I have another one:
6) Emma-Nnopu is the second coming of Jackie Young and becomes one our top three scorers
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - WBB fan - 05-03-2020
(05-03-2020, 12:38 PM)BosCard Wrote:(05-03-2020, 12:07 PM)81alum Wrote:(05-03-2020, 02:36 AM)PVTree Wrote: I'd put Wilson as the primary PG backup, at least firmly in the guard rotation ahead of Brown and Jump.Absolutely. A whopper of an oversight on my part. I guess my brain had not caught up to the fact she is coming back. Anna can be a terrific defender too against certain kinds of players.
Which player do the rest of you think will be the most positive big SURPRISE next season? Here are a few candidates:
1) Wilson starts draining 3s like she did early in her career, and the combination of her defense and 40% three point shooting gets her long minutes even in tight games.
2) Brink shows herself to be just as mature a player coming in as Jones was, and becomes a starter by January.
3) Dodson finally conquers her offensive nerves, and becomes Stanford's Ruthy Hebard, shooting over 60% and averaging a double double a game.
4) Jenna Brown shows off a stop and pop jump shot that makes her a consistent offensive threat and moves her up in the rotation.
5) Van Gytenbeek is so accomplished at point that she winds up starting by mid season, moving Williams to the 2 and shaking up the rotation.
Of these 5, which is most likely to happen? Are there other plausible candidates for biggest surprise?
I think 2 is the most likely. What do I want the most to happen? Definitely 4 or 5 as those two are our point guards once Williams graduates.
I have another one:
6) Emma-Nnopu is the second coming of Jackie Young and becomes one our top three scorers
This is a name missing in this discussion until now. I don't know if she'll be as good as Jackie Young, but I do think there's potential for a serious positive surprise here
RE: WBB: Thinking about 2020-21 - PVTree - 05-03-2020
2) I think Brink will play up to her ranking and will be starting by the start of conference play.