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Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Mick - 05-06-2020
Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST, the initial unemployment claims will be released. Current prediction is 3 million, raising to 33 million the number of people who have lost their jobs in the last seven weeks during the pandemic. That means the 20% barrier has been breached. 20.2% of the workforce is receiving (hopefully) an unemployment check and (hopefully) a stimulus check, at least until August.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-initial-jobless-claims-preview-priced-in-disaster-202005061422
20 million lost jobs in a month. 33 million lost jobs in two months. Added to the original 3.4% unemployment rate, we're somewhere between a 23% and 24% unemployment rate. It took us seven weeks to reach a level of unemployment that wasn't seen in the Great Depression for more than three years. Not until December, 1932 did American hit a 23.6% unemployment rate.
https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-06-2020
That number will, unfortunately, include my brother. It is no surprise, really, as he worked in sales for a liquor distributor, and his customers are bars and restaurants in the San Diego area. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, his commissions (which make up the bulk of his earnings) went down 95%. So, being furloughed and going on unemployment doesn't really make much of a difference. The company was nice enough to continue providing healthcare benefits (which are probably more valuable than his base salary).
They (perhaps optimistically) hope to hire some of the sales team back in a couple months. But the San Diego region, which previously had 7 sales people, will probably be covered by 2 or 3 even after bars and restaurants reopen. If they hire back by seniority, he is screwed; however, if they have discretion on who they hire, he will do well, as he was one of the top salesmen in the company.
BC
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Farm93 - 05-06-2020
(05-06-2020, 08:49 AM)Mick Wrote: Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST, the initial unemployment claims will be released. Current prediction is 3 million, raising to 33 million the number of people who have lost their jobs in the last seven weeks during the pandemic. That means the 20% barrier has been breached. 20.2% of the workforce is receiving (hopefully) an unemployment check and (hopefully) a stimulus check, at least until August.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-initial-jobless-claims-preview-priced-in-disaster-202005061422
20 million lost jobs in a month. 33 million lost jobs in two months. Added to the original 3.4% unemployment rate, we're somewhere between a 23% and 24% unemployment rate. It took us seven weeks to reach a level of unemployment that wasn't seen in the Great Depression for more than three years. Not until December, 1932 did American hit a 23.6% unemployment rate.
https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506
As a Stanford alum I was a touch uneasy regarding Hoover's legacy with unemployment and the Great Depression. Now I will always be able to say, "Hey at least it was not as bad what happened during the Trump administration"
Thank you - President Trump
Seriously though, for far too many families the stimulus check and unemployment insurance will not be enough. It will reduce the debt they need to take on in the short-term, but for many there will be bankruptcies and evictions on the horizon.
The pandemic is going to create a massive divide as we move forward.
There will be people that worked from home and will have a mountain of savings as they couldn't spend their income on items, restaurants, travel, etc. They could even enjoy a rather meaningful wealth effect from the months of shelter in place restrictions for years.
Then there will be a group of people that worked in the service sector or had jobs that provided supplies for the service sector that were furloughed for months. With many in those sectors losing their jobs in 2020. For many their service sector jobs were never lucrative, but the unemployment rates in those sectors could suppress salaries for years. That group will be struggling with negative credit ratings and heaps of debt in 2021, and relatively soft career prospects for multiple years.
The dichotomy may significantly alter the economy and politics for years in the USA and could cause more dramatic geopolitical turmoil around the world.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - OutsiderFan - 05-06-2020
If all the Fed money created and doled out since March was equally distributed between all Americans, each one would receive $13,000. That would have been a boon to the economy, kept people spending, and allowed tax revenues to continue being collected by state and local governments.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-06-2020
The other side of the coin is my wife, who, incredibly enough, got a new job (assuming that COVID-19 doesn't torpedo it between now and her start date in a month). She had been doing freelance work, but was hired to do what she was already doing fulltime. The original JD wanted someone who could commute up to the city to work with the team; they didn't bat an eye when she requested to work from home (even after the COVID-19 pandemic passes). On the flip side, while the offer was reasonable, they refused to budge on salary, signing bonus, or even performance incentives. As Mick had observed in a previous post, employers have all the leverage now.
BC
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Genuine Realist - 05-06-2020
(05-06-2020, 09:58 AM)Farm93 Wrote:I always have to begin these with the statement that I have my own issues with Trump. But . . .(05-06-2020, 08:49 AM)Mick Wrote: Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST, the initial unemployment claims will be released. Current prediction is 3 million, raising to 33 million the number of people who have lost their jobs in the last seven weeks during the pandemic. That means the 20% barrier has been breached. 20.2% of the workforce is receiving (hopefully) an unemployment check and (hopefully) a stimulus check, at least until August.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-initial-jobless-claims-preview-priced-in-disaster-202005061422
20 million lost jobs in a month. 33 million lost jobs in two months. Added to the original 3.4% unemployment rate, we're somewhere between a 23% and 24% unemployment rate. It took us seven weeks to reach a level of unemployment that wasn't seen in the Great Depression for more than three years. Not until December, 1932 did American hit a 23.6% unemployment rate.
https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506
As a Stanford alum I was a touch uneasy regarding Hoover's legacy with unemployment and the Great Depression. Now I will always be able to say, "Hey at least it was not as bad what happened during the Trump administration"
Thank you - President Trump
Seriously though, for far too many families the stimulus check and unemployment insurance will not be enough. It will reduce the debt they need to take on in the short-term, but for many there will be bankruptcies and evictions on the horizon.
The pandemic is going to create a massive divide as we move forward.
There will be people that worked from home and will have a mountain of savings as they couldn't spend their income on items, restaurants, travel, etc. They could even enjoy a rather meaningful wealth effect from the months of shelter in place restrictions for years.
Then there will be a group of people that worked in the service sector or had jobs that provided supplies for the service sector that were furloughed for months. With many in those sectors losing their jobs in 2020. For many their service sector jobs were never lucrative, but the unemployment rates in those sectors could suppress salaries for years. That group will be struggling with negative credit ratings and heaps of debt in 2021, and relatively soft career prospects for multiple years.
The dichotomy may significantly alter the economy and politics for years in the USA and could cause more dramatic geopolitical turmoil around the world.
Trump is blamed for the unemployment? And . . .
Trump is also blamed for the inevitable increase in mortality when the economy is reopened.
Got it.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-06-2020
Presidents always get too much credit for the economy when it is doing well (which Trump was all too happy to take) and get too much blame for the economy when it does poorly. In this case, even a "perfect" response would have resulted in a significant increase in unemployment and slowdown in the economy. The Taiwanese, South Korean, and Singaporean economies are likely to suffer.
On the other hand, countries whose COVID-19 infections have gotten out of hand will do worse than those who have managed to keep it under control. So it is reasonable to connect the dots between an inadequate early response to COVID-19 and a worsening economic outcome.
BC
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - yvonne - 05-06-2020
Every unemployed person is among the living. (ברוך ה׳)
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Genuine Realist - 05-06-2020
(05-06-2020, 01:21 PM)yvonne Wrote: Every unemployed person is among the living. (ברוך ה׳)Until they're not. Suicide rates are directly correlated to unemployment.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - 2006alum - 05-06-2020
(05-06-2020, 01:58 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:I'm guessing the CFR for unemployment is not 1+%. But thanks for another whataboutism.(05-06-2020, 01:21 PM)yvonne Wrote: Every unemployed person is among the living. (ברוך ה׳)Until they're not. Suicide rates are directly correlated to unemployment.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - stupac2 - 05-06-2020
(05-06-2020, 01:58 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(05-06-2020, 01:21 PM)yvonne Wrote: Every unemployed person is among the living. (ברוך ה׳)Until they're not. Suicide rates are directly correlated to unemployment.
According to the quick math in this article there could be ~6,000 extra suicides this year vs previous years because of unemployment, which is already dwarfed by the covid death toll.
But I'm not sure what the point of these posts are supposed to be, has anyone said that this situation is just peachy and everything is roses?
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Mick - 05-07-2020
Again, the forecast was low. The initial unemployment claims for the week ending 5/2 was 3,169,000. Last week's was revised upward by 7,000 to 3,846,000.
Total initial unemployment claims for the last seven weeks is now 33,483,000.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
https://twitter.com/USDOL/status/1258373623611568129?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
A good friend of mine lost his job running a group of salespeople at another law firm. He'd brought in $5 million in revenue, the rest of his group brought in another $5 million.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-07-2020
April unemployment will come tomorrow. I think experts are predicting 15% unemployment (at the height of the Great Recession, we hit 800,000), and this covers only the period to the index week, which is the second week in the month. Also, it only covers those who are unemployed but looking to get work (so anyone who has given up under the circumstances is considered "not in the workforce").
The ADP numbers (private payroll) yesterday states 20.2 million jobs were lost in April.
![[Image: MW-IF928_NPPTTL_20200506091111_ZH.png?uu...8e992d421e]](https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/05/06/Photos/ZH/MW-IF928_NPPTTL_20200506091111_ZH.png?uuid=0e74fac0-8f9b-11ea-9c18-9c8e992d421e)
It is striking to compare the magnitude of job losses now to during the Great Recession on that graph.
BC
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - oregontim - 05-07-2020
I assume we'd all agree the pandemic was inevitable and we can't start blaming Trump or any other public officials for the inevitable component of what's happened. The whole world was doomed to cases, deaths, and economic impact from when the virus got out.
However, it's also reasonable to try to parse out the impact of our government's response. I have no doubt that both the deaths and the economic impact were made that much worse by response from the top. Including:
- The president's failure to understand and lead during February and early March. He did treat it as a hoax and tried to minimize. The video evidence is there. He focused for weeks on keeping the Dow Jones Index safe.
- The delay in testing and PPE, corruption and disruption in the supply chains. The son-in-law. The competition for scarce goods. The lack of national policy and management. The wavering.
- The April-May and continuing incompetence in messaging and consistency. The president featuring his hunches.
- The ongoing attack on experts, IGs, dissenters, and scientific advice.
![[Image: ERtK1RaUcAArwFC.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERtK1RaUcAArwFC.jpg)
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Goose - 05-07-2020
Interesting news about Taiwan's economy. I guess there is no free lunch.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-never-needed-shutdowns-to-control-covid-19-its-economy-is-stalling-anyway-51588854001?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - Farm93 - 05-07-2020
(05-07-2020, 12:59 PM)Goose Wrote: Interesting news about Taiwan's economy. I guess there is no free lunch.China more or less stopped manufacturing and most commercial activities, for a number of weeks.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-never-needed-shutdowns-to-control-covid-19-its-economy-is-stalling-anyway-51588854001?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
The EU and the USA economies are largely going to be thrashed for several months.
Taiwan, South Korea and others that did almost everything well will have a tough economic time because of the missteps by the larger global economies. They tried really hard to get those countries to listen, but generally there was a belief by many that pandemics that originate in Asia will stay in Asia.
In 2021 and beyond politicians around the world will want to blame China or POTUS45. China's leadership will be in place for decades, so my guess is most of the world will blame POTUS45 for any economic woes that linger into 2021, 2022 & 2023, especially if the USA elects Biden as POTUS46.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - chrisk - 05-07-2020
(05-07-2020, 12:59 PM)Goose Wrote: Interesting news about Taiwan's economy. I guess there is no free lunch.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-never-needed-shutdowns-to-control-covid-19-its-economy-is-stalling-anyway-51588854001?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
On the other hand, the schools in Taiwan reopened in February, way before the US even thought about closing schools.
And Taiwan has spent minimal amounts on fiscal stimulus so it has plenty of dry powder, although their printing press is not as big as the US’s.
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-07-2020
And yet the Dow rose 211 points today; it is up over 5000 points from its nadir. The NASDAQ, at 8979, is somehow up for the year (it closed 2019 at 8972).
Goes to show that the stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market (h/t to Kai Ryssdal).
BC
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - OutsiderFan - 05-07-2020
Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.
This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend. There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.
I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-is-too-optimistic-about-a-post-coronavirus-world-stephen-roach.html
RE: Three million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow - BostonCard - 05-07-2020
(05-07-2020, 06:46 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.
This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend. There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.
I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-is-too-optimistic-about-a-post-coronavirus-world-stephen-roach.html
The issue is that with the exception of fast food joints, most restaurants are not public companies in the stock markets. Ditto major sports teams. Obviously, reductions in the above will affect suppliers and upmarket producers, but the companies that are going to be most affected by COVID-19, apart from the travel industry, are by and large not publicly traded.
BC