I'm shocked, shocked I say! - Printable Version
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I'm shocked, shocked I say! - stupac2 - 05-09-2020
Well, not that shocked:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bijans/status/1258812494644154368[/tweet]
I think the real question is how much these places stay the course, given that few if any have adequate test/trace/isolate in place.
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - fullmetal - 05-09-2020
Meanwhile in Seoul, one person visited three nightclubs over the weekend. He tested postive for covid, and now SK officials are trying to track down 1500+ nightclub goers (27 confirmed transmissions). Bars and nightclubs have been closed once again.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JSheltzer/status/1259162750057578496?s=20[/tweet]
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - Farm93 - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 11:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Meanwhile in Seoul, one person visited three nightclubs over the weekend. He tested postive for covid, and now SK officials are trying to track down 1500+ nightclub goers (27 confirmed transmissions). Bars and nightclubs have been closed once again.And that's the difference between the two approaches.
Life is so close to normal in South Korea that they actually had bars and night clubs open. They will learn from that outbreak, continue to trace aggressively, and reassess the importance of large crowds in indoor settings.
Most countries that have tried to reopen were in a much better place with COVID than the USA and still found a rebound in cases. Unless the months of May and June are this virus' kryptonite we will have a lot of healthcare problems in June, July and August.
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - BostonCard - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 11:08 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Well, not that shocked:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bijans/status/1258812494644154368[/tweet]
I think the real question is how much these places stay the course, given that few if any have adequate test/trace/isolate in place.
How much of that is influenced by NY, which clearly has been declining as outlined in several posts. Are other states that maintained shelter in place ordinances also declining or is most of the effect specifically NY?
Second big question, has it been long enough for this to be due to relaxing of restrictions, give the up to two week lag between exposure and symptoms.
BC
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - magnus - 05-09-2020
If i recall, some of the reopening states were ignoring the two week decline guideline and were actually increasing when they reopened. So it could just be a continuation of the preexisting trend.
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - Farm93 - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 12:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: How much of that is influenced by NY, which clearly has been declining as outlined in several posts. Are other states that maintained shelter in place ordinances also declining or is most of the effect specifically NY?
Second big question, has it been long enough for this to be due to relaxing of restrictions, give the up to two week lag between exposure and symptoms.
BC
One can easily see NY, NY and CT rates at different sources. Those three states are on a rapid downward decline in cases and deaths. To the point now that Michigan and Pennsylvania routinely are battling NY & NJ for the top spot in new daily deaths.
The states outside of the top 10 are largely insignificant in the overall trend, but their trends are definitely on the rise. The first clue will not be cases because the rate of testing and the types of people getting tested has not been constant. The one number most of the governors do get is the hospitalization rate. By most accounts hospitalizations are already rising and that's just the sacrifice we need because we live in a binary country.
More economic growth (pre-Nov 2020) or fewer deaths
It is not entirely clear the all-in approach will get economic growth pre-Nov 2020 but we are all living in the POTUS45 re-election campaign at the moment.
Never understood why testing and tracing are so undesirable since that is the viable 3rd option selected by those countries that now closest to getting economic growth AND fewer deaths.
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - fullmetal - 05-10-2020
(05-09-2020, 12:51 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(05-09-2020, 11:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Meanwhile in Seoul, one person visited three nightclubs over the weekend. He tested postive for covid, and now SK officials are trying to track down 1500+ nightclub goers (27 confirmed transmissions). Bars and nightclubs have been closed once again.And that's the difference between the two approaches.
Life is so close to normal in South Korea that they actually had bars and night clubs open. They will learn from that outbreak, continue to trace aggressively, and reassess the importance of large crowds in indoor settings.
Most countries that have tried to reopen were in a much better place with COVID than the USA and still found a rebound in cases. Unless the months of May and June are this virus' kryptonite we will have a lot of healthcare problems in June, July and August.
I think the lesson is that even in a place as vigilant as South Korea, all it takes is one slip from one person to disproportionately affect an entire population. They went from nearly out of the woods to being back under potential lockdown and now racing against time to isolate affected people. Constant vigilance is necessary, and even with the social responsibility of Korean culture, slip-ups can be deadly. I do not think American society could be anywhere near as responsible.
RE: I'm shocked, shocked I say! - oldalum - 05-10-2020
One of the problems this case illustrates is activities in which people go to multiple locations in one night, thus effectively multiplying the size of the "gathering" in each place in terms of viral transmission. I could see a rule to counter this, that people can go to only one bar or nightclub a night (enforced by ink stamping and/or a more sophisticated technology). That could reduce the potential for mass transmission and reduce the resources needed for contact tracing.