Consequences for the medical industry

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Consequences for the medical industry - akiddoc - 05-12-2020

As many activities are restricted over the next months or years, there will be consequences within my industry that seem to be predictable. With CSU going completely online, many companies likely to go primarily to online activity, and ongoing social distancing, the results are already visible for the medical care industry.

I have seen only four patients with fever over the past 2 months. I have not seen a single child with an ear infection over the last 2 months. I have seen one pneumonia and two broken bones. I have seen 3 patients with diarrhea. I have seen 3 patients with asthma symptoms. I've seen one concussion and 2 suturable lacerations. The most common diagnosis has been allergies. Kids are not getting hurt and they are not catching infectious diseases. Influenza season came to an abrupt halt in March. We usually see a lot of enterovirus infections in the spring and summer. It isn't happening. Even after social distancing eases, some of the usual viruses are going to take quite some time to reappear. Parents are learning that they don't have to go to the doctor for every little sniffle. And people are generally afraid to go to the doctor's office. We're barely even getting calls for audio or video visits.

I think that many private practices are going to go up in smoke. The current model encourages a lot of frivolous visits, and that likely will be much reduced. Practices will not be able to hold on indefinitely if they are being paid on a fee-for-service basis. Large employers of physicians are going to reduce their staffs or at least stop hiring. There will be fewer RN, LVN, and MA jobs. It will cascade through the entire industry. If reduced demand goes on for a while, I can see medical schools reducing slots in their classes.

Obviously, every other industry has been affected. Many thought the medical system would be safe. It isn't.

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - dabigv13 - 05-12-2020

We are anticipating a much bigger role for telemedicine. That definitely reduces the number of nurses and MAs you need. I personally am skeptical about it. I think there will be a mild increase, but in my experience telemedicine can only sometimes actually resolve a problem, often its only temporizing. And there is a lot of stuff that I see that is nonsense, but seeing a patient in person, putting a scope in their nose and showing them the pictures of their normal anatomy is reassuring in a way that a phone or video call could never be.

And I have a ton of 80+ year olds who are begging to come in and have their ear wax cleaned out, covid be damned.

I think there will be an impact for sure, but there is a lot of pent up demand for in person care. Whenever this pandemic is over, if we get a vaccine or we reach herd immunity the natural way, I think many people will be craving the way things used to be.

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - magnus - 05-12-2020

Will demand for doctors go down and demand for cheaper PAs go up?

I think if a vaccine is found in the next year, in a couple years, we'll be right back to where we are in many industries (those that are able to bounce back)

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - Snorlax94 - 05-13-2020

I don’t mean to treat this lightly because the drops in business for many — myself included — have been horrific. From my perspective as a parent, I don’t expect pediatrics to go away from this. Maybe kids are getting hurt less because there is no school and there are no sports and no camps and no malls and no play areas.

But the main reason I’d guess for less business for pediatricians is because parents are just very cautious about their kids, and they worry maybe their kids will get sick and then they will get sick.

But after the numbers die down, being cautious about their kids’ health will mean seeing their kid’s doctor. And I think folks on the cardboard are on average a cautious bunch. When reservation slots for Disneyland Shanghai opened, it sold out in hours, and I could see the same for Disney World soon.

People are now appreciating what incomparable talent and skill their hair stylists have and are desperate to go back to see them, and I am sure people appreciate their kids’ pediatricians and plan to return. I kid see parents skipping a physical and playing a mild illness more cautiously for now, but it can’t be put off forever — eventually kids will need physicals, they’ll need immunizations to attend school, they’ll get hurt playing sports, they’ll eventually want that cosmetic issue (mole, braces, acne) addressed...

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - BostonCard - 05-13-2020

I wonder what this will do for the prospects of reforming our healthcare payment system. Already some states (Oklahoma and Missouri) that have rejected medicaid expansion are reconsidering (link). Mass layoffs may make the fragility of the employer based insurance system apparent. I don't expect any plans to eliminate the system entirely, but I can see a move to expand the safety net for people who lose employer sponsored insurance.

BC

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - Leftcoast - 05-13-2020

Our 401K plans owe their popularity to the need for a portable/non-employer based retirement plan. When employee job movement became normal the US responded by creating an alternative to the define benefit tenure based systems of the babyboom generation.

It's a wonderment that the US hasn't created a similar portable/non-employer based healthcare system of some kind in the 40-50 years since 401(k)'s were introduced (and I'm fairly agnostic on what that might look like!). Maybe this is the kick in the pants we need.

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - Mick - 05-13-2020

(05-13-2020, 09:12 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I wonder what this will do for the prospects of reforming our healthcare payment system. Already some states (Oklahoma and Missouri) that have rejected medicaid expansion are reconsidering (link). Mass layoffs may make the fragility of the employer based insurance system apparent. I don't expect any plans to eliminate the system entirely, but I can see a move to expand the safety net for people who lose employer sponsored insurance.

BC

Furloughed personnel generally keep their benefits. One of the differences between layoffs and furloughs. A furlough is a mandatory, temporary leave of absence a layoff is permanent.

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - BostonCard - 05-15-2020

Some ghastly numbers from Sutter health:

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals-health-systems/sutter-health-suffered-a-168m-operating-loss-last-month-as-covid-19-upends

BC

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - akiddoc - 05-15-2020

(05-15-2020, 04:17 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Some ghastly numbers from Sutter health:

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals-health-systems/sutter-health-suffered-a-168m-operating-loss-last-month-as-covid-19-upends

BC

I'm assuming that they are including all divisions of Sutter. Sutter has a Hospital division, a Foundation division, and an IPA division.

Griffins78 - Griffins78 - 05-19-2020

(05-13-2020, 05:22 PM)Mick Wrote: Furloughed personnel generally keep their benefits. One of the differences between layoffs and furloughs. A furlough is a mandatory, temporary leave of absence a layoff is permanent.

But benefits are not necessarily kept.

RE: Griffins78 - Mick - 05-19-2020

(05-19-2020, 07:43 AM)Griffins78 Wrote:
(05-13-2020, 05:22 PM)Mick Wrote: Furloughed personnel generally keep their benefits. One of the differences between layoffs and furloughs. A furlough is a mandatory, temporary leave of absence a layoff is permanent.
But benefits are not necessarily kept.

There are different rules by state. The nearly-100 people we furloughed kept their benefits. And as the first sentence of this article states: "If you are furloughed: For a temporary leave, your employer generally keeps up with your health benefits while you’re not working, though the extent can vary depending on the rules in your state. "

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/how-to-keep-your-health-insurance-if-you-are-furloughed-or-laid-off.html

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - Hurlburt88 - 05-20-2020

All employees my company is furloughing, both in the US and in multiple other countries, keep all benefits. Moreover, right now I don't know of any companies I am benchmarking who have stopped benefits for furloughed employees. Just an FYI . . . admittedly narrow view of the world.

RE: Consequences for the medical industry - BostonCard - 05-20-2020

That's my brother's situation. He's furloughed without pay but gets to keep his healthcare and claim unemployment. Since most of his pay was on commission and his sales were down 95% February to April, being furloughed and losing the last bit of pay wasn't a big deal and allowed him to claim unemployment. OTOH, it doesn't save the company much money either, except that the furloughs will become permanent for about half of the furloughed workers.

BC