The CardBoard
How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? (/thread-19743.html)


How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - BostonCard - 05-19-2020

Obviously this is impossible to know for sure, but a study tried to model it:

https://drexel.edu/dornsife/news/latest-news/2020/May/how-many-lives-have-stay-at-home-orders-saved/

The answer they get is about 250,000 lives.  Since this study hasn't been published yet, the question I have is how much of that change is due to the stay at home order per se, and how much of it is due to behavior that would have happened anyways even in the absence of a stay at home order.  While recognizing that it is still early, the lack of a dramatic increase in cases in areas that have relaxed their restrictions suggests to me that most people were going to do what they were going to do anyways, and that the actual stay at home order provided only marginal benefit.

BC

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - magnus - 05-19-2020

In some areas,  CA, WA, stay at home orders forced residents to reevaluate the severity of the virus and got them to react earlier than they would have.   And as you've written,  every day counted in the early days.

Leftcoast - Leftcoast - 05-19-2020

I wonder how many New York’s were avoided?  

It’s not clear to me why other than SIP San Francisco, the country’s second densest city, avoided the events that played out in New York, the country’s densest city.

RE: Leftcoast - 2006alum - 05-19-2020

(05-19-2020, 09:00 AM)Leftcoast Wrote:  I wonder how many New York’s were avoided?  

It’s not clear to me why other than SIP San Francisco, the country’s second densest city, avoided the events that played out in New York, the country’s densest city.

Because millions of people don't commute through San Francisco via cramped, overcrowded subway cars:

Quote:Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) is a rapid transit public transportation system serving the San Francisco Bay Area in California.
Overview
Daily ridership
411,000 weekdays 161,000 Saturdays 116,000 Sundays (FY 2019 average)

Quote:Overview of the New York City's transit system
The subway has a daily ridership of approximately 5.5 million and an annual ridership in 2019 of roughly 1.698 billion. Our system includes: More than 6,600 subway cars, which collectively traveled about 365 million miles in 2019. 472 subway stations.

As a recently relocated NYCer, I continue to believe that the inability to create a socially distancing daily commute for many NYers will be the single biggest obstacle to get back to normal. There is simply no way to effectively enforce social distancing measures on the subway. Even stopping people to check that they are wearing masks before boarding would stretch the system's personnel. And the MTA is linked up to New Jersey Transit, Metro North (which services NY and CT bedroom communities), and the Long Island Railroad, which is in part why I think parts of CT and NJ were hit nearly as hard as NYC.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - 82 Card - 05-19-2020

The situation in NY and NJ was made worse by slowness to get with the program even after the orders were issued. Squabbling between levels of govt in NY didn't help. Also, the region had large groups of religious zealots that refused to cooperate with police enforcement. San Francisco may be the second densest city but it's small and the burbs are much less dense. The density in NY metro area is on another level.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - terry - 05-19-2020

Population density of selected places (in thousands per square mile) --

69  Manhattan
35  Brooklyn
33  Bronx
21  Queens
17  San Francisco
13  Boston
12  Chicago
(05-19-2020, 08:30 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Obviously this is impossible to know for sure, but a study tried to model it:

https://drexel.edu/dornsife/news/latest-news/2020/May/how-many-lives-have-stay-at-home-orders-saved/

The answer they get is about 250,000 lives.  

Does the 250K estimate cover all cities nationwide, or only the 30 big cities that are part of their coalition?

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - magnus - 05-19-2020

(05-19-2020, 10:00 AM)terry Wrote:  Population density of selected places (in thousands per square mile) --

69  Manhattan
35  Brooklyn
33  Bronx
21  Queens
17  San Francisco
13  Boston
12  Chicago

If I recall, Queens was the worst hit borough right?  Manhattan was the least hit?

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - fullmetal - 05-19-2020

I heard that 40% of Manhanttan fled NYC (presumably for their summer houses or family residences) before sheltering measures were ordered.

Elmhurst Hospital in Queens is the hardest-hit hospital I know of.

There are probably many socio-economic factors at play unmentioned as well.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - Goose - 05-19-2020

I think one very important difference probably was how much disease was injected into the community. There were lots of people flowing between Europe and New York City while the virus was active in Europe. Probably many more carriers in the general population, so more widespread disease. While San Francisco undoubtedly got some flow from Wuhan, it undoubtedly was much less than New York/New Jersey got from Europe. More injection rapidly equates to more disease.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - oldalum - 05-19-2020

(05-19-2020, 08:30 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  most people were going to do what they were going to do anyways, and that the actual stay at home order provided only marginal benefit.
I think the benefit was in the timing of the first order in the Bay Area, and was significant because of the effect of each day on exponential spread. That first order educated the nation about what was needed and probably had a major effect on many people around the country voluntarily limiting their contact with people outside the house. The subsequent orders in other places probably were more marginal in effect. Had there been no SiP orders at all, voluntary isolation would have happened more slowly.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - JustAnotherFan - 05-19-2020

(05-19-2020, 10:20 AM)magnus Wrote:  
(05-19-2020, 10:00 AM)terry Wrote:  Population density of selected places (in thousands per square mile) --

69  Manhattan
35  Brooklyn
33  Bronx
21  Queens
17  San Francisco
13  Boston
12  Chicago

If I recall, Queens was the worst hit borough right?  Manhattan was the least hit?

Half of Queens isn't rich neighborhoods where people can work from home like Manhattan, but they are disproportionately likely to be essential workers taking the subway to work. Also, Queens gets a density reduction thanks to a bunch of shoreline and two airports that have few people living in them distorting their density per livable mile. And as someone said, Manhattan had a lot of folks flee the city.

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - 82lsju - 05-19-2020

who left NYC

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Editors%20Picks&pgtype=Homepage

where some went

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/16/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-moving-leaving.html

RE: How many lives were saved by stay at home orders? - terry - 05-19-2020

This map shows distribution of cases and deaths within NYC

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/nyregion/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article