Nightmare scenario - Printable Version

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Nightmare scenario - BostonCard - 05-20-2020



The black line shows the 1918 flu pandemic.  The red line shows the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.  Let's hope the lines diverge before the fall.

hat tip to Lyman Stone.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1262933274424311809[/tweet]

For what it is worth, I think this is a very low probability event.  Even allowing for some relaxation of things and loss of testing capability, we will not be heading blind into the fall.  Doctors will test any suspicious pneumonia for COVID-19, so we will definitely *not* dismiss any rise in deaths as "the flu came early".

But we could easily head into a second wave in the fall.

BC

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RE: Nightmare scenario - oregontim - 05-20-2020

Wow, that chart! Makes anybody want to do the whole compare/contrast thing then vs. now. And really frightening. Amen to hoping the lines diverge by fall.

(05-20-2020, 08:38 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  The black line shows the 1918 flu pandemic.  The red line shows the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.  Let's hope the lines diverge before the fall




For what it is worth, I think this is a very low probability event.  Even allowing for some relaxation of things and loss of testing capability, we will not be heading blind into the fall.  Doctors will test any suspicious pneumonia for COVID-19, so we will definitely *not* dismiss any rise in deaths as "the flu came early".





But we could easily head into a second wave in the fall.




BC

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