States that are increasing again - Printable Version
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States that are increasing again - magnus - 06-10-2020
I don't have the full details, but it seems a bunch of states' stats are increasing again. =(
If anyone has been following, please jump in.
One state that caught my eye.
2 months ago, Arizona was being talked about as a potential single site host for reopening baseball. I think due to low or diminishing numbers as well as the location.
Arizona was reopened pretty early with phases starting May 1st and removal of SiP on May 15th.
Unfortunately, looks like they've had to declare a state of emergency this past week as numbers have begun to climb again.
Has anyone read any analysis/theories on particular reasons for the increase?
RE: States that are increasing again - Farm93 - 06-10-2020
A number of states will have increases in cases.
There are a number of possible reasons, but here are the biggies
1- More testing
2 -More testing in at risk communities that were not tested commonly in early months (poor neighborhoods, black & brown communities)
3- More cases
#1 & #2 should have been done as early as March, but were not done at sufficient rates until mid-May. However, they are not really a concern for those worried about identifying a potential mini-wave in hospitalizations.
#3 would be more troubling, but in most states that is hard to tease out from the state totals unless you know how the state has addressed #1 & #2.
However, in some states the hospitalization rates are increasing too. That is more troubling, I don't think that many states are in this category right now, but there are a few.
Arizona is a unique case. In most of the world warmer summer weather features people spending more time outdoors. The indoor air temperatures are higher, at least at home, and generally the humidity is higher too. All of those things reduce the spread. And then we get to Arizona. In Arizona people spend less time outdoors in the summer, often a lot less. The indoor temperatures at work and home are often the same year round.
The Worldometers site has included the projections by state for a number of weeks now. The late April projections included most states approaching 0 new cases by mid-July (that has changed recently BTW). However, even back then Arizona featured projections that included a climb in cases and deaths in June and July. They were rather unique and I always assumed that was a function of their rather unique relationship with summer.
In other states COVID cases and hospitalizations may climb but there would not be seasonal flu hospitalizations competing for beds. So deaths SHOULD be manageable as long as people are generally doing enough to reduce the community spread.
If Americans are listening to their county health officials and their governors, then the community spread could be OK at least until the fall second wave.
RE: States that are increasing again - M T - 06-10-2020
As I've been saying, California is increasing in cases, and L.A. is increasing in percent positive.
Florida also had a big jump last week. As I couldn't find (ie, they don't publish) their historical testing numbers, it is hard to see if the politicians are blowing smoke when they say it is a result of increased testing. I didn't previously mention it here as I couldn't determine the cause. The roughly 2x bump is coincident with a potential increase from Memorial Day.
If one's belief that the "poor neighborhoods" have higher rates of infection due to those neighborhoods having more people that were working out of the house, then what's that mean for more opening up?
RE: States that are increasing again - burger - 06-10-2020
This article highlights 8 states where things are getting worse in terms of hospitalizations or % of tests positive (so no bias due to increasing testing).
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/10/21286696/us-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-update-texas-arizona-north-carolina
They are: Arizona, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, Utah, Arkansas, Texas, Florida, Tennessee
RE: States that are increasing again - OutsiderFan - 06-10-2020
Arizona has an idiot Governor. That explains a lot.
He assumed the warm weather would limit the virus there - wrong.
He assumed they didn't need to really enforce any distancing - wrong.
He assumed they didn't need to wear masks - wrong.
Most states had closures and strict enforcement, then re-opened cautiously. Arizona closed but made a very half-hearted effort at enforcement, then re-opened everything without any caution.
RE: States that are increasing again - dabigv13 - 06-10-2020
An interesting trend for me seems to be that places with an early large peak, don't seem to have a later, bigger peak. NYC is one example, but on a smaller scale this applies within SoCal. My hospital was relatively hard hit for LA, nearing ICU capacity in early April, before dropping and now at a pretty steady low state. Some other LA hospitals have a similar pattern. But places in Orange County that didn't have large early peaks have had consistent growth and are at their highest patient load of the pandemic now, though still they are only about as bad as we are now. Other parts of LA as well that were spared early, are now as bad as they've been. The rate of rise is not as steep as ours was in April, and they aren't close to capacity, but still climbing.
It certainly is not due to any herd immunity effect. Still far too few people have been exposed. Perhaps in harder hit areas, more people had friends or relatives that were affected, and so modified their behavior more. I definitely think this can explain NYC's rapid drop to an extent, but less convinced about SoCal because our incidence even in harder hit areas is still very low.
Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.
RE: States that are increasing again - akiddoc - 06-10-2020
The numbers to follow are ICU admissions. That pretty much takes the increased testing factor out of the equation.
RE: States that are increasing again - BostonCard - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 06:19 PM)akiddoc Wrote: The numbers to follow are ICU admissions. That pretty much takes the increased testing factor out of the equation.
The problem is not all states provide the data.
BC
RE: States that are increasing again - M T - 06-12-2020
(06-10-2020, 02:19 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.
I have family in SoCal, so I keep watching the numbers climb.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but I feel like I'm on an upper story room on a beach, watching the water withdraw back into the ocean, and yelling to the people below, "Run for the hills!," knowing that by the time they look up and see what's heading toward them, too many won't escape.
I would so like to be found to be a fool. The stable hospitalization rates in L.A. give me hope that I'm wrong. But the testing numbers look to be a harbinger.
Orange County doesn't publish percent positive results on their tests (and, it appears they use raw tests, not % positive on people). I ran their numbers yesterday and they're around 5% (a week's average, from data a week after the week's end) versus under 4% a month ago.
L.A.County current numbers show under 6% for the first week of May, 7.89% for the week ending May 31 and 11.15% for the week ending June 7 (the 11% will come down as more tests come in, but they'll likely be pushing or exceeding 10%).
San Diego County shows 3% (their 2wk rolling average).
Santa Clara County was about 1.1% a week ago versus 1.3% a month earlier.
I also worry about people evacuating the populous areas of SoCal with climbing numbers and taking the disease with them to the more rural parts of California.
RE: States that are increasing again - OutsiderFan - 06-13-2020
It has been my belief for a couple months that there is no such thing as a second wave. There is distancing to reduce spread or a rising tide without distancing, and about a two week lag time to show statistical changes in either direction after one of these behavioral choices is adopted by preponderance of population in a given area. Warm weather does not reduce spread at all, because...
It is absolutely clear Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas have a serious problem on their hands. And L.A. County as it’s own state is still in big trouble.
Meanwhile, the anti-leader in the White House is encouraging the kinds of mass gathering nobody should have, and putting the whole country and world at risk for his own frail insecurities.
Here is the detail needed to reduce spread while opening things up. Yesterday we rented a kayak for a couple hours to paddle the Farmington River in CT. BC (Before Covid) you would walk into boathouse, fill out your release form, pay, take your form down to the launch ramp, hand it to attendant, grab a life vest and paddle from a rack they were all kept, then attendant would pull out your boat, you get in and go.
Now, PC (Post Covid), you must make a reservation for your boat online, and pay for it before you arrive. This limits number of people on river at a time. Your name goes on reservation list given to mask wearing boat attendant. You put on mask when on property and go straight to boat ramp and confirm your name on reservation list. You then see piles of vests and paddles that have been used, and you pick your vest and paddle from a rack of disinfected ones.
It wasn’t a major inconvenience but demonstrated how everyone has to make some changes to SOP to mitigate virus spread. The local athletic shoe store is also requiring appointments to go into store and it is otherwise curbside pickup if you order online. I have no idea if the states now being hammered have taken these measures, but behavior can’t go back to the old normal or spread will hasten. Yesterday a dumbass woman went into the pet supply store and wasn’t wearing a mask. When told one is required, she claimed she didn’t know she needed a mask, oblivious to the sign on the door that stated so, and to the greater reality we are in. CT has had lower cases as a result of taking virus seriously, but will that be ending?
I saw a TON of people out yesterday and most businesses open. Gyms and eat-in dining opens 6/17. Almost everyone wears mask when around others, but it’s gonna be a precarious month as we see what happens with everything open. I still don’t know if I will go back to gym, but no way in hell am I eating in. I don’t even feel good about eating out on sidewalk and will continue with takeout to support local restaurants.