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It's just not safe to go back to normal - Printable Version

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It's just not safe to go back to normal - OutsiderFan - 07-27-2020

I've now read three stories this morning about spread from "getting back to normal" activities.  Wedding in S.F. that ignored safety protocols and led to multiple Covid infections. The Miami Marlins team outbreak after traveling through Atlanta. And this below.

Just more ammo for public health experts calling for another round of shutdowns.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1287586220592246786[/tweet]

RE: It's just not safe to go back to normal - Farm93 - 07-27-2020

The mask optional policy for students in some ACT testing facilities was very disappointing.  
Given the number of testing locations that still were open one would have to expect at least a few COVID-19 cases will be traced back to test centers.

Of course, ACT testing is small potatoes compared to opening USA high schools.   I would have to imagine any state opening high schools would see a number of COVID outbreak stories as there is no way a USA school will be able to make sure every USA HS student follows the rules 24/7, for a number of reasons, and only a few rule breakers could spread the virus throughout a school.   

The MLB Marlins situation is relevant for our college sports board.
The European sports experiences are great for TV, but not relevant for USA sports because...well...(insert political commentary).
The MLS had problems getting players in their bubble but have stabilized since
The NBA has started their bubble experiment well
But MLB is trying to travel with players living at home.

The MLB experience is closest to the model the NCAA could hope to achieve. 
The MLB is getting hit by people living in hotspot cities and travel.

The NCAA will see those issues on an entirely different scale since commercial travel is far more treacherous than charter or corporate jets and a college campus is in an entirely different league of community spread when compared to a multi-million mansion in a wealthy enclave of a major city.

So my guess is the leadership in the NCAA is watching the MLB experience closely.   The entire Marlins team was tested this morning to see if they can travel as a team.   The team has a major outbreak ALREADY.

COVID19 has claimed its first MLB games.   It is so hard to believe the NCAA could do better.

RE: It's just not safe to go back to normal - Genuine Realist - 07-27-2020

(07-27-2020, 06:18 AM)Farm93 Wrote:  The mask optional policy for students in some ACT testing facilities was very disappointing.  
Given the number of testing locations that still were open one would have to expect at least a few COVID-19 cases will be traced back to test centers.

Of course, ACT testing is small potatoes compared to opening USA high schools.   I would have to imagine any state opening high schools would see a number of COVID outbreak stories as there is no way a USA school will be able to make sure every USA HS student follows the rules 24/7, for a number of reasons, and only a few rule breakers could spread the virus throughout a school.   

The MLB Marlins situation is relevant for our college sports board.
The European sports experiences are great for TV, but not relevant for USA sports because...well...(insert political commentary).
The MLS had problems getting players in their bubble but have stabilized since
The NBA has started their bubble experiment well
But MLB is trying to travel with players living at home.

The MLB experience is closest to the model the NCAA could hope to achieve. 
The MLB is getting hit by people living in hotspot cities and travel.

The NCAA will see those issues on an entirely different scale since commercial travel is far more treacherous than charter or corporate jets and a college campus is in an entirely different league of community spread when compared to a multi-million mansion in a wealthy enclave of a major city.

So my guess is the leadership in the NCAA is watching the MLB experience closely.   The entire Marlins team was tested this morning to see if they can travel as a team.   The team has a major outbreak ALREADY.

COVID19 has claimed its first MLB games.   It is so hard to believe the NCAA could do better.
There is a brobdingnagian middle ground between 'back to normal' and 'shelter in place'. I THINK we are on our way to finding it.

RE: It's just not safe to go back to normal - BostonCard - 07-27-2020

Again, mere positivity is not a concern.  The concern is a) the possibility for these people to get sick and b) the possibility of them spreading the disease to others who may get sick.  If of the dozen Marlins who test positive, 8 remain asymptomatic and 4 develop a mild illness, that is very different than if 4 are hospitalized and one is in the ICU on the verge of death.  I think the second concern is pretty minimal, given the frequency of testing and fact that the players will be isolated pretty quickly after testing positive.

BC

RE: It's just not safe to go back to normal - M T - 07-27-2020

CDC numbers indicate that about 3.8% of the 18-29myo that have been positive in the US have been hospitalized.
(18-29: disease rate per 100K: 1233;  hospitalization rate per 100K: 47)

RE: It's just not safe to go back to normal - BostonCard - 07-27-2020

(07-27-2020, 02:12 PM)M T Wrote:  CDC numbers indicate that about 3.8% of the 18-29myo that have been positive in the US have been hospitalized.
(18-29: disease rate per 100K: 1233;  hospitalization rate per 100K: 47)

The issue is that the ballplayers are being regularly tested and screened.  If you did that on a widespread basis, you would have a lot of tests and probably a lot more positives, which would probably reduce the proportion of positives who are hospitalized.

BC