The virus or the economy - Printable Version

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The virus or the economy - BostonCard - 07-27-2020



I thought this was a good figure.  All the countries, including Sweden, which famously did not shut down, had a dramatic reduction in activity with the initial shutdown, though Sweden had the smallest decline.  Italy, Spain, and France, which were hit hardest in March/April not surprisingly had the most significant decline in activity.  Because the countries also had the strictest shutdowns, it is hard to disentangle cause and effect here.

But if you look at what has happened in July, Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, all countries whose COVID-19 activity has been most suppressed (though it is coming back in parts of Spain), have the highest economic recovery.  Sweden, which again, never shut down, has continued to languish as the outbreak has not been suppressed as well as in the other European countries.  It is joined by the UK and US, which have had a rough go of the pandemic, have had a lackluster economic recovery, despite aggressive reopening in the US.

BC

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RE: The virus or the economy - oregontim - 07-27-2020

(07-27-2020, 08:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  But if you look at what has happened in July, Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, all countries whose COVID-19 activity has been most suppressed (though it is coming back in parts of Spain), have the highest economic recovery.  Sweden, which again, never shut down, has continued to languish as the outbreak has not been suppressed as well as in the other European countries.  It is joined by the UK and US, which have had a rough go of the pandemic, have had a lackluster economic recovery, despite aggressive reopening in the US.

BC

This makes intuitive sense to me. I can't find an up-to-date line chart of US vs. these European countries but we all know the pattern is starkly different, as their numbers went gradually down after April-May while ours shot back up. An effective shutdown combined with effective gradual release and control program seems to have lowered their numbers to the point at which they are able to return to a semblance of normalcy now, while we are in another big wave, so we return (sort of) to shutdown. It's something like the ant and grasshopper fable, in which common sense and discipline is rewarded and quick gratification punished.

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