New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - Printable Version
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New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - Griffins78 - 08-11-2020
4 people in a family in Auckland have COVID-19 but have no known contacts with anyone currently known to have the virus or been outside the country.
New Zealand has jumped into crisis mode moving the entire country to level 3 and Auckland to level 2 essentially shutting down the city for 3 days while they continue to contact trace.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - DocSavage87 - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 06:32 AM)Griffins78 Wrote: 4 people in a family in Auckland have COVID-19 but have no known contacts with anyone currently known to have the virus or been outside the country.
New Zealand has jumped into crisis mode moving the entire country to level 3 and Auckland to level 2 essentially shutting down the city for 3 days while they continue to contact trace.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/08/11/new-zealand-records-new-coronavirus-cases-after-100-day-streak-without-local-transmission
Makes you wonder if this might be the first established case of transmission of virus by fomites. I wonder if they got an international package that had the virus and managed to somehow inhale a sufficient quantity to kick off an infection.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - BostonCard - 08-11-2020
Damn. NZ had gone >100 days without any new cases.
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - M T - 08-11-2020
Room temperature fomites won't spread it if it has been > 2 weeks. I would look at frozen items (specifically, frozen food boxes, or even potentially, frozen food itself).
I expect they are also considering animal to human spread.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - teejers1 - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 02:46 PM)M T Wrote: Room temperature fomites won't spread it if it has been > 2 weeks. I would look at frozen items (specifically, frozen food boxes, or even potentially, frozen food itself).
I expect they are also considering animal to human spread.
Isn't it also possible that it was contracted by interaction with asymptomatic residents in NZ? (And I get that it would have to involve multiple asymptomatic transmitters, but still).
Or has every person in NZ been tested (and continues to get tested)?
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - Goose - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 02:59 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Isn't it also possible that it was contracted by interaction with asymptomatic residents in NZ? (And I get that it would have to involve multiple asymptomatic transmitters, but still).Sure, it could happen, but keeping an asymptomatic chain going with no symptomatic cases that got tested and came up positive is a very, very low probability event. They have gone 100 days without a reported case, so that would be a chain at least 7 asymptomatic people long and NO symptomatic cases that got tested at all. It is very probable there are some people in NZ who are sick with COVID-19 that for their own reasons chose not to get tested. That keeps an undetected pocket of infection going. It could also be an asymptomatic person who entered the country "irregularly". That is to me a much more probable explanation.
New Zealand has done a total of 498,480 tests with a population of 5,000,000.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - BostonCard - 08-11-2020
My guess is that it was transmitted asymptomatically long enough for the chain to be untraceable and reared its head.
BC
(08-11-2020, 03:10 PM)Goose Wrote:(08-11-2020, 02:59 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Isn't it also possible that it was contracted by interaction with asymptomatic residents in NZ? (And I get that it would have to involve multiple asymptomatic transmitters, but still).Sure, it could happen, but keeping an asymptomatic chain going with no symptomatic cases that got tested and came up positive is a very, very low probability event. They have gone 100 days without a reported case, so that would be a chain at least 7 asymptomatic people long and NO symptomatic cases that got tested at all. It is very probable there are some people in NZ who are sick with COVID-19 that for their own reasons chose not to get tested. That keeps an undetected pocket of infection going. It could also be an asymptomatic person who entered the country "irregularly". That is to me a much more probable explanation.
It probably came from Australia two or three transmission cycles ago, not 100 days ago.
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - Goose - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 03:11 PM)BostonCard Wrote: My guess is that it was transmitted asymptomatically long enough for the chain to be untraceable and reared its head.Not a bad bet, but that is my "irregular" comment. There is a travel ban for Australian citizens. You need to get an exemption to travel overseas. Visitors to New Zealand are required to quarantine for 14 days on arrival, including from Oz. That should catch asymptomatic cases as well, should it not?
BC
(08-11-2020, 03:10 PM)Goose Wrote:(08-11-2020, 02:59 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Isn't it also possible that it was contracted by interaction with asymptomatic residents in NZ? (And I get that it would have to involve multiple asymptomatic transmitters, but still).Sure, it could happen, but keeping an asymptomatic chain going with no symptomatic cases that got tested and came up positive is a very, very low probability event. They have gone 100 days without a reported case, so that would be a chain at least 7 asymptomatic people long and NO symptomatic cases that got tested at all. It is very probable there are some people in NZ who are sick with COVID-19 that for their own reasons chose not to get tested. That keeps an undetected pocket of infection going. It could also be an asymptomatic person who entered the country "irregularly". That is to me a much more probable explanation.
It probably came from Australia two or three transmission cycles ago, not 100 days ago.
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - M T - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 02:59 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Isn't it also possible that it was contracted by interaction with asymptomatic residents in NZ? (And I get that it would have to involve multiple asymptomatic transmitters, but still).
Or has every person in NZ been tested (and continues to get tested)?
100 days without known cases requires an string of asymptomatic cases. Based on a 4-day period between infections (as I recall has been reported in studies), that's 25 rounds of infection. Even based on people being both being asymptomatic and a long-term carrier, this would probably would require several rounds of them.
Smuggling is also another way this could happen.
I suppose false negative test results could be considered.
Genome studies may help determine if the new cases are closely linked to months-old cases, or to cases now happening elsewhere.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - BostonCard - 08-11-2020
A quick check of the Australian COVID-19 page shows that there are ANZ flights between Australia and New Zealand, and the outbreak in Victoria happened when travelers from abroad in quarantine were sharing cigarettes and having sex with the private security guards hired to keep them in quarantine.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/07/09/australias-second-city-faces-a-new-wave-of-contagion
Quote:Blame has been levelled at poorly trained private security guards who were supposed to keep travellers in their rooms. They had not been using protective gear properly and have been accused of breaching social-distancing rules by sharing cigarettes and car-pooling to work. Local papers report that some had sex with the people they were supposed to be keeping in strict isolation. Several of the guards contracted the virus and passed it on to friends and family just as Victoria’s first lockdown, the toughest in Australia, was being lifted.
The challenge with this virus is it only takes one mistake. If you have a few hundred people going between Australia and New Zealand, and say 2% are infected when they travel, and 1 out of the say dozen of infected people in quarantine sneaks out for a couple drinks in the local pub... that's all it takes.
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - teejers1 - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 03:39 PM)BostonCard Wrote: A quick check of the Australian COVID-19 page shows that there are ANZ flights between Australia and New Zealand, and the outbreak in Victoria happened when travelers from abroad in quarantine were sharing cigarettes and having sex with the private security guards hired to keep them in quarantine.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/07/09/australias-second-city-faces-a-new-wave-of-contagion
Quote:Blame has been levelled at poorly trained private security guards who were supposed to keep travellers in their rooms. They had not been using protective gear properly and have been accused of breaching social-distancing rules by sharing cigarettes and car-pooling to work. Local papers report that some had sex with the people they were supposed to be keeping in strict isolation. Several of the guards contracted the virus and passed it on to friends and family just as Victoria’s first lockdown, the toughest in Australia, was being lifted.
The challenge with this virus is it only takes one mistake. If you have a few hundred people going between Australia and New Zealand, and say 2% are infected when they travel, and 1 out of the say dozen of infected people in quarantine sneaks out for a couple drinks in the local pub... that's all it takes.
BC
Biological urges again reveal their penchant for mischief.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - Goose - 08-11-2020
(08-11-2020, 03:39 PM)BostonCard Wrote: A quick check of the Australian COVID-19 page shows that there are ANZ flights between Australia and New Zealand, and the outbreak in Victoria happened when travelers from abroad in quarantine were sharing cigarettes and having sex with the private security guards hired to keep them in quarantine.True, one mistake of that type would do it. However it is equally true that a fisherman from elsewhere may decide to sell some fish to "friends" in NZ. It is also true that yachtsman from anywhere can send a dingy ashore to buy some supplies without perhaps going through customs. Pesky paperwork you know. I know in normal times this is pretty common.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/07/09/australias-second-city-faces-a-new-wave-of-contagion
Quote:Blame has been levelled at poorly trained private security guards who were supposed to keep travellers in their rooms. They had not been using protective gear properly and have been accused of breaching social-distancing rules by sharing cigarettes and car-pooling to work. Local papers report that some had sex with the people they were supposed to be keeping in strict isolation. Several of the guards contracted the virus and passed it on to friends and family just as Victoria’s first lockdown, the toughest in Australia, was being lifted.
The challenge with this virus is it only takes one mistake. If you have a few hundred people going between Australia and New Zealand, and say 2% are infected when they travel, and 1 out of the say dozen of infected people in quarantine sneaks out for a couple drinks in the local pub... that's all it takes.
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - magnus - 08-11-2020
NZ health officials are investigating imported freight as the entry vector.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN25801P
Quote:Investigations were zeroing in on the potential the virus was imported by freight. Bloomfield said surface testing was underway in an Auckland cool store where a man from the infected family worked.
Also, 4 new probable cases linked to the original 4 was just announced.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/live-auckland-enters-alert-level-3-rest-nz-goes-2-after-community-transmission-v1
With 2 members of the original infected family having visited tourist sites while symptomatic, the contact tracers have their work cut out for them.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - OutsiderFan - 08-12-2020
I'm so heartened to read that Americans haven't cornered the market on profound idiocy. Sharing cigarettes and having sex with people in quarantine??!?!?!
It sucks that New Zealand has had a "mole" pop up after thinking it had them all sufficiently whacked, but at the same time it's a great cautionary tale for just how contagious and hard to stop this virus from spreading is. If New Zealand can have it come back and spread after 102 days without a case, you know it is spreading in places that haven't ever managed it as well as New Zealand.
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - BostonCard - 08-13-2020
Now up to 14 cases, 13 linked to the initial family and 1 a foreign arrival in quarantine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53761122
BC
RE: New Zealand finds potential community spread - will lock down - magnus - 09-20-2020
NZ was able to get their new case count back to 0 earlier this month.
Unfortunately a new case and now two household cases have popped up. The first case had quarantined for 14 days (after returning to the country) including two negative tests. But then developed symptoms on day 21. They believe the flight to New Zealand was the cause as genome matching matched other cases from that flight.
So tentative conclusion is that this is one of the outlier cases to the 14 day guidelines.
Probably a good reminder for those in the high risk demographic to take extra precautions over the standard guidelines.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/4-new-cases-covid-19-2