Would Hillary have done better?

Would Hillary have done better? - Printable Version

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Would Hillary have done better? - Mick - 08-23-2020

I'm curious, would HRC have done better in the pandemic? It's holy writ here that Trump is responsible for the entire American pandemic. It is clear that Obama's team would have handled it perfectly, just as they handled the H1N1 pandemic perfectly:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4861530/ron-klein

From Ron Klein:

"I was in the White House in 2009 and 2010, I was working for VP Biden, I lived through the H1N1 response as a WH staffer. Bunch of really great, really talented people working on it and we did every possible thing wrong. 60 million Americans got H1N1 in that period of time and it's just purely a fortuity that this wasn't one of the great mass casualty events in American history. It had nothing to do with us doing anything right. It just had to do with luck...imagine a virus with different lethality and you can just do the math on that."

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - oregontim - 08-23-2020

(08-23-2020, 05:08 PM)Mick Wrote: It's holy writ here that Trump is responsible for the entire American pandemic. It is clear that Obama's team would have handled it perfectly, just as they handled the H1N1 pandemic perfectly...

My first reaction was a chuckle, and a distant memory of a phrase from (I think) cartoons: "Them's fighting words." Said by whom? Yosemite Sam? Mick, nobody could say you shied away from a fight.

I respectfully disagree with the premise.

"... that Trump is responsible for the entire American pandemic." I'd say no, the general agreement of the majority here is that Trump is responsible for mismanagement that made it much worse. For most of the difference between our 4% of the world's population and 25% of its covid cases and covid deaths.
"... that Obama's team would have handled it perfectly." I'd say no, the general agreement is that Obama's team would have handled it way better. Would have made national interest the top priority. Would have put the scientists in front, and would have listened to them. Would have called for unity, not division.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Goose - 08-23-2020

(08-23-2020, 05:08 PM)Mick Wrote: I'm curious, would HRC have done better in the pandemic? It's holy writ here that Trump is responsible for the entire American pandemic. It is clear that Obama's team would have handled it perfectly, just as they handled the H1N1 pandemic perfectly:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4861530/ron-klein

From Ron Klein:

"I was in the White House in 2009 and 2010, I was working for VP Biden, I lived through the H1N1 response as a WH staffer. Bunch of really great, really talented people working on it and we did every possible thing wrong. 60 million Americans got H1N1 in that period of time and it's just purely a fortuity that this wasn't one of the great mass casualty events in American history. It had nothing to do with us doing anything right. It just had to do with luck...imagine a virus with different lethality and you can just do the math on that."

Don't know what it says about Hillary, but it says a lot about the administration in power at the time that given the very, very poor response outlined in this quote, nothing was done. As I have been saying all along, the CDC knew about and published papers on their own shortcomings. They weren't the only ones. It was clear our pandemic response wasn't where it needed to be on a state and local level either. The only way you got tested was if they were already admitting you to the hospital.
It must be understood that every administration has to make trade-offs. Fixing this problem would have cost money and frankly was not much in the public mind, because in this case it turned out to be "just the flu". Like many problems our nation has encountered, the opportunity to fix it before it became a disaster was not acted upon. We are paying the price now.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - BostonCard - 08-23-2020

(08-23-2020, 05:08 PM)Mick Wrote: I'm curious, would HRC have done better in the pandemic? It's holy writ here that Trump is responsible for the entire American pandemic. It is clear that Obama's team would have handled it perfectly, just as they handled the H1N1 pandemic perfectly:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4861530/ron-klein

From Ron Klein:

"I was in the White House in 2009 and 2010, I was working for VP Biden, I lived through the H1N1 response as a WH staffer. Bunch of really great, really talented people working on it and we did every possible thing wrong. 60 million Americans got H1N1 in that period of time and it's just purely a fortuity that this wasn't one of the great mass casualty events in American history. It had nothing to do with us doing anything right. It just had to do with luck...imagine a virus with different lethality and you can just do the math on that."

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/suppl_1/S75/499147

Twice as many people died in the month of July as in the entirety of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. It is a very interesting counterfactual. Had the case fatality rate been 1% as with COVID-19, would the response have been the same? Would we still have had 60 million cases, and as a result 600,000 deaths, or would the pandemic have resulted in shutdowns comparable to or even more stringent than what we have seen with COVID-19.

The counterfactual with Hillary is also interesting. I suspect we would have had a more consistent and aggressive message coming from Washington, but I wonder if it would have nonetheless been as ineffectual. I feel like the types of protests that we saw against shutdowns and masks in places like Michigan would have been many-fold higher if the message were coming from a President Clinton.

Ironically, I think in the same way that only Nixon could go to China, I wonder if only Trump could have been an effective medium for a forceful response to the pandemic. Alas, we won't get to find out what would have happened had Trump tried.

BC

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Farm93 - 08-23-2020

Hillary is a woman, so let's go with the idea that she could have joined this club.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#ec6a2403dec4

FWIW - The USA is politically divided and it is likely that if Hillary told people to never drive faster than 90MPH, then ~40% of the population would then drive 100+MPH the very next day. Given that dynamic it is hard to imagine Hillary would have the same popularity that these other female leaders had in their countries prior to COVID.

If I had to guess I would say she would have had the weakest results for any global female leader. However as the female leaders have done so well around the world any US female leader would have done better than our current male POTUS.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Leftcoast - 08-23-2020

There is a lot of room between "competent leadership" and what we've experienced the last 6 months. I'm confident Hilary would have been in that vast middle ground - Not up to the world's best crisis leadership but firmly on the right side of competence vs President Trump.

I started to recap the many mis-steps we've seen but we all know them well and there's no need to dredge them up again here.

But let's not just compare President Trump to Hilary, ANY of our last 5 Presidents would have managed the crisis better than Trump, INCLUDING all of the ones I voted against. Would anyone rather have President Trump "lead" the fight against Corona than your pick of Obama, Bush2, W. Clinton, Bush1, Reagan?

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Goose - 08-23-2020

(08-23-2020, 06:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Twice as many people died in the month of July as in the entirety of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. It is a very interesting counterfactual. Had the case fatality rate been 1% as with COVID-19, would the response have been the same? Would we still have had 60 million cases, and as a result 600,000 deaths, or would the pandemic have resulted in shutdowns comparable to or even more stringent than what we have seen with COVID-19

Hard to say. There was no Italy in front of us at the time. Also, in the first month the country did something like 6000 tests total if I remember correctly. While our testing sucked this time, we at least finally sort of ramped up. With the technology available in 2009, it would have been very ugly I fear.

Quote:The counterfactual with Hillary is also interesting. I suspect we would have had a more consistent and aggressive message coming from Washington, but I wonder if it would have nonetheless been as ineffectual. I feel like the types of protests that we saw against shutdowns and masks in places like Michigan would have been many-fold higher if the message were coming from a President Clinton.

Ironically, I think in the same way that only Nixon could go to China, I wonder if only Trump could have been an effective medium for a forceful response to the pandemic. Alas, we won't get to find out what would have happened had Trump tried.

BC

Interesting thoughts. I think it probable your ideas here are correct. I for one don't think the Governor of Florida became an idiot because he had an idiot leading the country. I think he is an idiot all on his own. He would have fought HRC tooth and nail.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - fullmetal - 08-24-2020

HRC doesn't command the GOP as well as Trump does, and if Trump had shown effective leadership in responding to the virus (heeding public health guidance, putting science and reasonable precautions first, etc.), I gather the rest of the country would have fallen in step. Certainly under HRC, the blue states would have jumped in line...and the red states would have indeed done what they are doing now, which is fight science and reasonable precautions the entire way. However, I think HRC's biggest advantage would have been in her approach to early response, which likely would have contained the virus much better and, almost by definition, reduced death count. I think a lot of what this country has had to do is a result of virtual inaction in allowing the virus to gain an early foothold on US soil.

But maybe that's not fair, some pro-administration people will claim, as if this administration's response to the virus has been worth of supporting. Okay, I'll do a brief list that Leftcoast didn't want to outline.

HRC would have been unlikely to be unprepared for a pandemic (i.e. not had her admin been absent from pandemic playbook preparation meetings). She is unlikely to have eliminated the bioterror/pandemic response office from the national security realm. She is unlikely to have defunded the CDC's China position that would have provided reliable forward observation capabilities during the initial outbreak in China. She is unlikely to have instituted a federal government-wide hiring freeze that resulted in many unfilled CDC positions during the pandemic. She is unlikely to have attempted to financially benefit from coronavirus therapies or spent large sums of money buying doses of an unproven Russian vaccine. She is unlikely to have shown lack of interest in dealing with the virus or claimed the virus was a political hoax or obstructed federal medical officials from delivering public health guidance and leadership. She is unlikely to have fired and appointed medical officials based on political whim or to have intimidated entire agencies into ineffective half-truths by use of her ability to remove officials. She is unlikely to have withdrawn from the WHO in the middle of a pandemic. She is unlikely to have withheld medical supplies, testing, and PPE from states whose governors did not agree with her political take on the virus. She is unlikely to have contravened public health guidance by denigrating masks. She is unlikely to have gone golfing 28 times since March, indicating how important the pandemic has been to the current president. She is unlikely to have waffled for so long on using the DPA to quickly ramp domestic production of medical supplies. Her govt would have been unlikely to have squandered so much money on procuring PPE that never materialized, using middlemen/brokers/former GOP lobbyists looking to make a buck in a market they'd never touched.

There's more. But the answer is pretty clear.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - teejers1 - 08-24-2020

(08-23-2020, 06:20 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Hillary is a woman, so let's go with the idea that she could have joined this club.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#ec6a2403dec4

FWIW - The USA is politically divided and it is likely that if Hillary told people to never drive faster than 90MPH, then ~40% of the population would then drive 100+MPH the very next day. Given that dynamic it is hard to imagine Hillary would have the same popularity that these other female leaders had in their countries prior to COVID.

If I had to guess I would say she would have had the weakest results for any global female leader. However as the female leaders have done so well around the world any US female leader would have done better than our current male POTUS.

Hillary would have had a pulse, right? Then she would have done better.
I mean, c'mon . . . it's not realistically possible to do worse than Trump, or even as bad as Trump has been, on the pandemic front.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - JustAnotherFan - 08-24-2020

(08-24-2020, 10:51 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(08-23-2020, 06:20 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Hillary is a woman, so let's go with the idea that she could have joined this club.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#ec6a2403dec4

FWIW - The USA is politically divided and it is likely that if Hillary told people to never drive faster than 90MPH, then ~40% of the population would then drive 100+MPH the very next day. Given that dynamic it is hard to imagine Hillary would have the same popularity that these other female leaders had in their countries prior to COVID.

If I had to guess I would say she would have had the weakest results for any global female leader. However as the female leaders have done so well around the world any US female leader would have done better than our current male POTUS.

Hillary would have had a pulse, right? Then she would have done better.
I mean, c'mon . . . it's not realistically possible to do worse than Trump or even as bad as Trump has been on the pandemic front.

I feel the title of this could have alternatively been titled "Would ANYONE have done worse?"

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - cctop - 08-24-2020

Hilary would have had more consistent messaging at a Federal level.

She would have pushed for mask mandates. The red states would have pushed back even harder than they're doing. The death count would be lower than where we are now but still a higher percentage than in European and Asian countries.

At the same time, Fox News would have a Covid death counter on its front page. Its daily messaging would be hammering her as the worst president ever because of her handling of the crisis.

The stock market would not have recovered the same way, or if you prefer, been as propped up. Hilary would not have put as much pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy or on Congress to provide loans to businesses.

The Republican presidential candidate would win the election this November.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - oregontim - 08-24-2020

Like a popular bumper sticker says, “any functioning adult.”

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - chrisk - 08-24-2020

Ohio House conservatives move to impeach Gov. DeWine

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-house-conservatives-move-to-impeach-gov-dewine/MRM4FIT7WJHHTLOYBUIY3ESMXI/

The Ohio conservatives ran off the state health director because they that she was too tough. Ohio's early successes have faded since DeWine lost Acton. Not being satisfied with running off Acton, conservatives are now going after their own governor. And the supporters of these hard right legislators are the type of people Trump has to cater to in his flailing attempt to win re-election.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Leftcoast - 08-24-2020

In case anyone is unaware, DeWine is a Republican being impeached by the further right element of his own party who believe their civil rights were violated by the Governor's Stay-at-Home order and subsequent mask requirement. The articles of impeachment are amusing in a black comedy sort of way.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/08/articles-of-impeachment-drawn-up-against-gov-mike-dewine-over-coronavirus-orders.html

(08-24-2020, 03:42 PM)chrisk Wrote: Ohio House conservatives move to impeach Gov. DeWine

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-house-conservatives-move-to-impeach-gov-dewine/MRM4FIT7WJHHTLOYBUIY3ESMXI/

The Ohio conservatives ran off the state health director because they that she was too tough. Ohio's early successes have faded since DeWine lost Acton. Not being satisfied with running off Acton, conservatives are now going after their own governor. And the supporters of these hard right legislators are the type of people Trump has to cater to in his flailing attempt to win re-election.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - akiddoc - 08-24-2020

(08-24-2020, 04:32 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: In case anyone is unaware, DeWine is a Republican being impeached by the further right element of his own party who believe their civil rights were violated by the Governor's Stay-at-Home order and subsequent mask requirement. The articles of impeachment are amusing in a black comedy sort of way.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/08/articles-of-impeachment-drawn-up-against-gov-mike-dewine-over-coronavirus-orders.html

(08-24-2020, 03:42 PM)chrisk Wrote: Ohio House conservatives move to impeach Gov. DeWine

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-house-conservatives-move-to-impeach-gov-dewine/MRM4FIT7WJHHTLOYBUIY3ESMXI/

The Ohio conservatives ran off the state health director because they that she was too tough. Ohio's early successes have faded since DeWine lost Acton. Not being satisfied with running off Acton, conservatives are now going after their own governor. And the supporters of these hard right legislators are the type of people Trump has to cater to in his flailing attempt to win re-election.

Is it bad if I fantasize that the virus had run a 30% fatality rate in just one state that starts and ends with an O?

I have no doubt that HRC would have done better. For all of her faults she does know how the government bureaucracy functions and she is not anti-science. We would have had the same red-state blue-state fracas, but at least the federal response would have been more coherent.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Genuine Realist - 08-24-2020

(08-24-2020, 09:55 PM)akiddoc Wrote:
(08-24-2020, 04:32 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: In case anyone is unaware, DeWine is a Republican being impeached by the further right element of his own party who believe their civil rights were violated by the Governor's Stay-at-Home order and subsequent mask requirement. The articles of impeachment are amusing in a black comedy sort of way.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/08/articles-of-impeachment-drawn-up-against-gov-mike-dewine-over-coronavirus-orders.html

(08-24-2020, 03:42 PM)chrisk Wrote: Ohio House conservatives move to impeach Gov. DeWine

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-house-conservatives-move-to-impeach-gov-dewine/MRM4FIT7WJHHTLOYBUIY3ESMXI/

The Ohio conservatives ran off the state health director because they that she was too tough. Ohio's early successes have faded since DeWine lost Acton. Not being satisfied with running off Acton, conservatives are now going after their own governor. And the supporters of these hard right legislators are the type of people Trump has to cater to in his flailing attempt to win re-election.

Is it bad if I fantasize that the virus had run a 30% fatality rate in just one state that starts and ends with an O?

I have no doubt that HRC would have done better. For all of her faults she does know how the government bureaucracy functions and she is not anti-science. We would have had the same red-state blue-state fracas, but at least the federal response would have been more coherent.

I have always thought that HRC would have been a different type of Awful President - a female Nixon in training. By 2019, she would likely have drawn up the battlements Nixon-style against a legion of critics. What she would have done is anybody's guess.

Obama? Despite the wonderful speaking voice and leadership presence, Barack Obama was (and is) a passive personality. CEB veterans will remember the pejorative nickname I pinned on him after his complete and incompetent failure to seize the opportunity for real reform that the financial crisis presented. He always went with the strongest voice in the room. So he'd follow the lead of the experts, which in the case of Covid is probably a good thing.

All that said, it is hard to imagine anyone doing worse than Trump since March 10th. (Those of you who want to blame him for lacking a clairvoyance in January-February that no one in the Western world possessed can continue to do so.) All you really have to do is reassure the public that you're doing your best, and to have confidence in the energy and effort of conscientious and well-trained medical scientists . . . and he couldn't even do that. He managed to enmesh the whole public dialog in his own sense of confrontation. A disaster.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Goose - 08-25-2020

(08-24-2020, 11:03 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: All that said, it is hard to imagine anyone doing worse than Trump since March 10th. (Those of you who want to blame him for lacking a clairvoyance in January-February that no one in the Western world possessed can continue to do so.) All you really have to do is reassure the public that you're doing your best, and to have confidence in the energy and effort of conscientious and well-trained medical scientists . . . and he couldn't even do that. He managed to enmesh the whole public dialog in his own sense of confrontation. A disaster.

I would add that he added a whole bunch of "read herrings" to the discussion (HCQ as an answer) and undermined confidence in his experts by publicly deprecating them and questioning their competence. Exactly the wrong things to do. If you want to replace Fauci, do it, but don't question his competence and then not do it. Worst of both worlds.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - BostonCard - 08-25-2020

CowboyIndian would know what to do with "read herring".

I agree with your comment about Fauci. He does, of course, serve at the pleasure of the President, and while it would have been unpopular to have him fired, it would have been within the President's power and prerogative.

His actions are consistent with the President who claims "ultimate authority" but disavows "any responsibility at all". Firing Fauci would have meant taking responsibility. You see a similar pattern with his approach to Governors, shifting blame when things go South.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/25/904760761/scapegoats-and-allies-how-trump-changed-his-tune-on-states-coronavirus-response

BC

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - thatboy - 08-25-2020

(08-24-2020, 11:03 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: CEB veterans will remember the pejorative nickname I pinned on him after his complete and incompetent failure to seize the opportunity for real reform that the financial crisis presented. He always went with the strongest voice in the room. So he'd follow the lead of the experts, which in the case of Covid is probably a good thing.

Yeah, I've been expecting you to nickname Trump "Ugly Boy" as a sort of inverse corollary.

RE: Would Hillary have done better? - Genuine Realist - 08-26-2020

(08-25-2020, 10:47 PM)thatboy Wrote:
(08-24-2020, 11:03 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: CEB veterans will remember the pejorative nickname I pinned on him after his complete and incompetent failure to seize the opportunity for real reform that the financial crisis presented. He always went with the strongest voice in the room. So he'd follow the lead of the experts, which in the case of Covid is probably a good thing.

Yeah, I've been expecting you to nickname Trump "Ugly Boy" as a sort of inverse corollary.

You really don't have to do that with Trump, as everyone else does it for you. I came up with the epithet back in the spring of 2009 because I was already struck by Obama's passivity. That was an insight a little ahead of the game, but it became more and more apparent over the next seven years. Barack Obama is a go-along, get-along personality.

There was a ring of effeminacy to it, however, that I did not intend. So I have regretted it.