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Spain, Germany, and Italy - OutsiderFan - 09-02-2020

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

The Daily Case chart for Spain. First observation is you can see they had a big outbreak, got it under control with restrictions, lifted them, and yesterday they were back to almost where they were before restrictions were imposed. Second observation is there is a gap of seemingly unreported cases between Aug. 21 and Aug. 31, because the shape of the graph, when including the Sep. 1 data, smooths the trajectory to the same arc as the first outbreak in March.  

Given it took what appears to be a 3-month shutdown to get the outbreak under control, and it has roared back to life in basically a month after some restrictions were lifted, it demonstrates just how easily the virus spreads without restrictions on distancing. Based on what I can gather, Spain has not even opened up its bars and nightclubs yet, and it still is getting another growing outbreak.

Then there are Germany and Italy.

Germany has had a little bit of resurgence, but nothing like Spain:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Ditto Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I sure would love to know what is causing Spain to go back to the future, why Germany and Italy seemed to have had a bit of an uptick after lifting restrictions, and what it means for the U.S., or even individual states in the U.S.

I would have thought Spain's increase could be explained by it allowing bars open while Germany and Italy haven't, but it seems like there is more to it than that. Do any of y'all have answers?

RE: Spain, Germany, and Italy - BostonCard - 09-02-2020

Good article from the BBC about Spain's second surge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53832981

Some parallels to the US.

BC

RE: Spain, Germany, and Italy - OutsiderFan - 09-02-2020

(09-02-2020, 09:33 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Good article from the BBC about Spain's second surge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53832981

Some parallels to the US.

BC

Dysfunctional government between state and federal level: √
People relaxing their defenses as case numbers subsided: √
Young people gathering and drinking alcohol: √

I think the relaxing defenses due to lowering case numbers is the big issue. As humans, we just aren't accustomed to having an outbreak, watching it go away, and then having the same thing come back. We know the flu is seasonal, but it's not like SARS-CoV-2.

One thing to also point out that teejers1 will appreciate if happening to see this thread, is the fact Spain's hospitalization and death rates are both way down from March. But I was a bit confused when the Dr. interviewed said he expects a second wave and how he implied it would be bad again in Fall. I was all ready to think - based on the lower hospitalization and death rates - that maybe we could actually be a little less cautious and live with the virus because it isn't as damaging anymore.

I'm still concerned about the long-term impacts potentially being bad for even those who didn't really suffer much from Covid-19 the first time around, and the implications for the economy from a population health perspective. We don't need to see millions of people having health complications a year or two or three out, that crush our healthcare system and economy with a bunch of sick people any more than we want to see them now.

RE: Spain, Germany, and Italy - OutsiderFan - 09-03-2020

If I didn't know better, I'd say Connecticut is handling Covid better than Italy and Germany both:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/connecticut/