Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - Printable Version

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Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - teejers1 - 10-20-2020

The 3 chart story from today's NYT (of all places) highlight squibs.  
I was unable to do so, but perhaps somebody else can.

There apparently are some silver linings (relatively speaking, anyway) regarding the recent numbers we're seeing.

I must say that the information comports with what my non-medical-background instincts tell me; namely, that (i) testing way higher now than before, thus comparing current wave to "first wave" is far from exact, (ii) older/more vulnerable people being more careful, and (iii) death rate not increasing with additional cases due to (ii) and better treatment of virus.

I've fully resigned myself to the US stumbling/bumbling through this, while medical field works on vaccine in the background for however long it takes.  Be reasonable on re-opening on both sides - wear masks but don't be afraid to expand things, especially with younger populations (assuming sufficient hospital capacity). You can always pull back (as people here note with their postings on actions taken in Europe).   

And try not to be overly judgmental - it's an imperfect process, and it will be when the occupant of the WH changes, too.

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - JJJ - 10-20-2020

It may require a subscription beyond a few views/month:

Quote:But you’ll notice that the red line on the chart — the number of Americans currently hospitalized with virus complications — looks less bad. It has risen lately, but it is not close to its peak.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/20/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates/a-virus-update-in-three-charts

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - Genuine Realist - 10-20-2020

(10-20-2020, 10:41 AM)teejers1 Wrote:  The 3 chart story from today's NYT (of all places) highlight squibs.  
I was unable to do so, but perhaps somebody else can.

There apparently are some silver linings (relatively speaking, anyway) regarding the recent numbers we're seeing.

I must say that the information comports with what my non-medical-background instincts tell me; namely, that (i) testing way higher now than before, thus comparing current wave to "first wave" is far from exact, (ii) older/more vulnerable people being more careful, and (iii) death rate not increasing with additional cases due to (ii) and better treatment of virus.

I've fully resigned myself to the US stumbling/bumbling through this, while medical field works on vaccine in the background for however long it takes.  Be reasonable on re-opening on both sides - wear masks but don't be afraid to expand things, especially with younger populations (assuming sufficient hospital capacity).  You can always pull back (as people here note with their postings on actions taken in Europe).   

And try not to be overly judgmental - it's an imperfect process, and it will be when the occupant of the WH changes, too.

There is a great deal of common sense in this post, which reflects the absence of political slant.

I do believe this is where the American public is headed, once the question of how it reflects on the election of 2020 is behind us.

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - oregontim - 10-20-2020

Yes, good catch, very interesting charts ... and just as an addition to the thread, here are those three charts displayed so we can see them here:
1.)

2.)

3.)

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - BostonCard - 10-20-2020

[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1318322241520594944?s=20[/tweet]

The COVID tracking project provides much the same data.  You can see that daily testing continues to increase (good news).  The number of daily cases are going up, but are not yet up to the level of the summer wave.  It remains to be seen how close we are to the maximum; if you squint, you might be able to convince yourself that things are starting to level off (yesterday's number of daily cases are lower than the seven-day average, despite being a weekday), though that may be wishful thinking on my part.  Hospitalizations are also rising, though the increase in hospitalizations is not as pronounced as the number of new cases (there is a short delay).  There is no evidence that the number of deaths are going up, but deaths are more delayed.  Still, the ratio of death to hospitalization went down from the first to the second peak, and would be expected to go down further as we get better at treating COVID-19.  At the peak of the first wave there was one death for every 30 hospitalizations; that went down to one death per sixty hospitalizations in the summer.

If we really are leveling off, then I think we may be ok.  On the other hand, if the number of cases continues to climb, then it may only be a matter of time before hospitalizations and deaths start climbing as well.

BC

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - magnus - 10-20-2020

Speaking of increased testing,  what's the TAT these days?  I haven't seen any articles mentioning long delays for results.  Either we're back to under 48 hours or we've gotten used to uselessly long return times.   Or i guess other items are more important each new cycle.

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - BostonCard - 10-20-2020

Some good news suggesting that the improved mortality is not just a more favorable case mix (fewer high risk patients getting sick):

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1318656252835209217?s=20[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - OutsiderFan - 10-20-2020

It's quite remarkable to see the deltas between cases and deaths in Italy in March, vs. now.  Way more cases now than March, but way fewer deaths as well.

My concern is still that we don't know the long range impacts of having SARS-CoV-2 in the body in terms of lingering health impacts. If the masses conclude Covid is no big deal because not that many people die, and that comes with a vast number of people infected who have long-term health complications, that could well be a worst case scenario for economic damage from this virus.

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - akiddoc - 10-20-2020

I think there are some positive trends. We have a better idea how to treat severe cases. Older Americans are being better protected, more or less in spite of what the feds are doing. Children continue to NOT get very sick and tend to NOT be super-spreaders. Testing and tracking is improved. It's just a shame that the whole prevention side of things is so politicized. Trump had a brobdingnagian opportunity to change people's behavior when he got sick, and he did absolutely nothing positive to do so. He just doesn't care.

On the other hand, we aren't going back to life as normal for a long time.

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - BostonCard - 10-20-2020

(10-20-2020, 04:38 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  It's quite remarkable to see the deltas between cases and deaths in Italy in March, vs. now.  Way more cases now than March, but way fewer deaths as well.

My concern is still that we don't know the long range impacts of having SARS-CoV-2 in the body in terms of lingering health impacts. If the masses conclude Covid is no big deal because not that many people die, and that comes with a vast number of people infected who have long-term health complications, that could well be a worst case scenario for economic damage from this virus.

Three factors:
1) Better testing: A larger share of milder cases are being tested and identified.  It used to be that you had to be hospitalized to be tested, now a lot of patients with mild or even asymptomatic disease are being tested.
2) Improved case mix: A larger share of younger patients are getting the virus since a lot of the spread happened amongst younger patients going to bars and restaurants, while older patients are protecting themselves and being protected better.
3) Better treatment: Even adjusting for the above, doctors know how to reduce the mortality of COVID-19.

BC

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - Mick - 10-20-2020

Studies Point to Big Drop in COVID-19 Death Rates

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

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lex24 - lex24 - 10-21-2020

(10-20-2020, 05:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(10-20-2020, 04:38 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  It's quite remarkable to see the deltas between cases and deaths in Italy in March, vs. now.  Way more cases now than March, but way fewer deaths as well.

My concern is still that we don't know the long range impacts of having SARS-CoV-2 in the body in terms of lingering health impacts. If the masses conclude Covid is no big deal because not that many people die, and that comes with a vast number of people infected who have long-term health complications, that could well be a worst case scenario for economic damage from this virus.

Three factors:
1) Better testing: A larger share of milder cases are being tested and identified.  It used to be that you had to be hospitalized to be tested, now a lot of patients with mild or even asymptomatic disease are being tested.
2) Improved case mix: A larger share of younger patients are getting the virus since a lot of the spread happened amongst younger patients going to bars and restaurants, while older patients are protecting themselves and being protected better.
3) Better treatment: Even adjusting for the above, doctors know how to reduce the mortality of COVID-19.

BC

BC. Were do you get the factual support that a lot of the spread among younger people occurred in bars and restaurants?  Is that true in Califirnia?  Where, for the most part bars and indoor dining have been closed for months. (Thus, its  hard for me to believe that Calif spike had much if anything to do with bars and restaurants)  You are not one to overstate etc.  so I suspect you have the data.  I’d like to see it.  Thanks

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RE: Thought for sure somebody would link . . . - BostonCard - 10-21-2020

Here's are a few articles:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-makes-bars-and-restaurants-potential-covid-19-hot-spots-11593768600
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=245334
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/18/902328016/how-bars-are-fueling-covid-19-outbreaks
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/close-case-contact-dining-out-tied-covid-19-spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/health/Covid-restaurants-bars.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/well/live/coronavirus-spread-bars-transmission.html


BC

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