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We're #1 !!! - OutsiderFan - 10-23-2020

It's truly amazing that we've now topped India for the most Covid cases in a day record. Maybe they are doing less testing and aren't catching as many cases. The scary thing is the United States is also not testing nearly enough in some states and isn't catching many cases either. 

The death rates may be lower now, but this trend sure looks like something that is going to overwhelm the healthcare system in states being too cavalier about the virus.  One thing to point out is Florida is not testing nearly as much as in July when they had their most reposted infections.





RE: We're #1 !!! - BostonCard - 10-23-2020

Yeah, we are "turning the corner".




To be fair, a bunch of those are an artifact of backlogged cases being reported (4000 in Alabama and 2000 in California), but still, the trend in hospitalizations is unmistakable.  And the number of deaths have started climbing again, with the 7-day moving average crossing above 800 for the first time in over a month.

BC


RE: We're #1 !!! - Farm93 - 10-23-2020

(10-23-2020, 04:39 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Yeah, we are "turning the corner".




To be fair, a bunch of those are an artifact of backlogged cases being reported (4000 in Alabama and 2000 in California), but still, the trend in hospitalizations is unmistakable.  And the number of deaths have started climbing again, with the 7-day moving average crossing above 800 for the first time in over a month.

BC
This is the time of year that I think sneaks up on Cali residents.  At least that was my experience when I would travel to other places in October and forget that it might be pretty cold in many parts of the USA.

The BigTen games this weekend will help all of us appreciate just how cold and winter-like it is becoming in the Midwest.

Still this will give us another truthful statement by POTUS45.   He said we were turning the corner on COVID and he was right. 
Given that Americans are fatigued and COVID19 doesn't care, I suspect we will see more new highs until Americans realize the USA hospital infrastructure can't support the herd immunity/miracle strategy.

Not sure POTUS45 wants to deliver that message, so we could move quite a bit up this second wave curve before someone else in government gives the USA the tough love reality on the COVID situation.


RE: We're #1 !!! - Goose - 10-23-2020

(10-23-2020, 04:53 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  Not sure POTUS45 wants to deliver that message, so we could move quite a bit up this second wave curve before someone else in government gives the USA the tough love reality on the COVID situation.

At this point in history, anybody with any functioning intelligence at all knows that the virus is a serious threat to the population in the USA. Unfortunately, those same people also know it isn't a high percentage threat to them personally. Yes, it could kill them, but so could lots of other things people do regularly. So, since they are tired of restrictions and it "probably" won't affect them, they are going to do what they want. Even more unfortunately, this will happen unless and until serious enforcement actions are put in place. I suspect that will be never.


RE: We're #1 !!! - Mick - 10-23-2020

(10-23-2020, 04:53 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  Still this will give us another truthful statement by POTUS45.   He said we were turning the corner on COVID and he was right. 
Given that American's are fatigued and COVID19 doesn't care, I suspect we will see more new highs until Americans realize the USA hospital infrastructure can't support the herd immunity/miracle strategy.

Not sure POTUS45 wants to deliver that message, so we could move quite a bit up this second wave curve before someone else in government gives the USA the tough love reality on the COVID situation.

I suspect POTUS45's strategy will be defeated rather resoundingly at the ballot box in 11 days (apart from the 50 million ballots already in the door).  And then it will be Biden's turn in the barrel, so to speak.


RE: We're #1 !!! - magnus - 10-24-2020

(10-23-2020, 08:33 PM)Mick Wrote:  I suspect POTUS45's strategy will be defeated rather resoundingly at the ballot box in 11 days (apart from the 50 million ballots already in the door).  And then it will be Biden's turn in the barrel, so to speak.

Even if this happens, nothing would happen until Jan/Feb. That's a lot of bad stats accumulating quickly and for too long. =/


RE: We're #1 !!! - OutsiderFan - 10-24-2020

One thing to keep in mind is that all the financial and economic wizards, not just in the U.S., but Europe as well, based the six months ago (somewhat rosy) economic projections on the virus going away after a blip. None of them priced in an even larger resurgence in the Fall & Winter.

Even the governments of these countries have been caught totally flat-footed, unprepared for what is now occurring.  Think we didn't have enough PPE in April?  What's it going to be like in November? Most seem to have forgotten that China had one of the most severe lockdowns the world has ever seen to get control of the outbreak in January, with people not even allowed out of their homes for weeks, and forcibly taken to strict quarantine centers. That's the only way they got control of it.

Now, I have come to believe - based on my own experience - that avoiding large gatherings, limiting time indoors, and wearing a mask any time around others, in or outside, and keeping hands clean, is enough to slow spread to a manageable level. But we see even European countries that were much more coordinated and compliant with restrictions are now facing their largest outbreaks yet. Take CT, a state that was doing fantastic. Was down to less than 50 cases a day for several weeks and less than 1% positive test rate. It's now at over 500 per day and a 3% positive rate.

All this seems poised to take another pound of flesh out of the economy, because it sure seems to me there is going to be no choice but to have more lockdowns.  This is why I have been very dubious about college sports returning. Having them sends a message that things are OK, when they are decidedly not. How can you be playing amateur sports if there is a need for a lockdown? It will be way more difficult to muster the political will to have a lockdown when that means interrupting college sports you allowed to start up. Maybe Dr. Cody is right to be as circumspect as she is. Perhaps she would allow fans at sports if the virus was not expected to start rapidly spreading again, and she is being proactive.

It is just enraging to see the derelict POTUS have these absurd super spreader events gathering all these people without masks and no distancing while we now have more new infections than ever, hospitals are filling up again, and he's trying to take health insurance from people. His campaign is so evil it puts people in back of him wearing masks so the cameras see them, but the crowd in front doesn't wear them. All for show.  

I'm 100% certain we are going to get to over 100,000 cases per day, and its probably - like I said last week - going to be happening by Election Day, another day of super spreader indoor events all across the country. These numbers will in part be driven by people at these Presidential spread events who will then go vote and infect people who had the good sense to avoid mass maskless gatherings. Just sickening.

We certainly have to learn to live with the virus, but the data suggests we are going to have to go through another round of shutdowns to stop it from overwhelming us. It seems the worst is yet to come, so act accordingly.


RE: We're #1 !!! - chrisk - 10-24-2020

Ireland has imposed a 6-week soft lockdown. Police are enforcing a 3-mile limit on the distance people can travel from home.

Wales imposed a 17-day firebreak lockdown Friday. Very few exceptions for leaving your house and no inter-household mingling allowed.

The obituary for lockdowns has been prematurely written. It is not clear that Americans are responsible enough to avoid a strict lockdown. In China, people were “nudged” to do the right thing, but life got back to close to normal much more quickly than it is in the US.

With Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up, January could be the worst month on record.

The Senate is ostensibly in session today to debate the Supreme Court nomination, but in fact there is a lot of legislative maneuvering resulting in debates on COVID relief and health policy/pre-existing conditions.

Right now, Sen Brown is leading the charge for the Democrats and Sen Johnson is holding the line for the Republicans.


lex24 - lex24 - 10-24-2020

Man you folks are depressing.  I remember California’s health czar predicting an 80% hospitalization increase in October.  Didn’t happen. 

One thing I’m sure of, people are not going to accept a long term strict lockdown.  Blame it on whatever you wish.  But that is a reality.  Existing as opposed to living is incredibly hard from a mental health prospective.  And people have to work to live.  Those who are not fortunate enough to have an option to work from home (or are financially set so they do not have to work) are going to continue to work.  

Projections notwithstanding, we will ride  this out.


RE: We're #1 !!! - dabigv13 - 10-24-2020

You may need to adjust your expectations. This winter could be rough, even in California.


lex24 - lex24 - 10-24-2020

(10-24-2020, 12:43 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  You may need to adjust your expectations. This winter could be rough, even in California.


And I could be hit by a bus tomorrow.  Obviously I know things may be rough.  I’m not in denial.  I just choose to be as optimistic as possible. Not easy.


RE: We're #1 !!! - teejers1 - 10-24-2020

(10-24-2020, 11:42 AM)chrisk Wrote:  Ireland has imposed a 6-week soft lockdown.  Police are enforcing a 3-mile limit on the distance people can travel from home.

Wales imposed a 17-day firebreak lockdown Friday.  Very few exceptions for leaving your house and no inter-household mingling allowed.

The obituary for lockdowns has been prematurely written.  It is not clear that Americans are responsible enough to avoid a strict lockdown.  In China, people were “nudged” to do the right thing, but life got back to close to normal much more quickly than it is in the US.

With Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up, January could be the worst month on record.

The Senate is ostensibly in session today to debate the Supreme Court nomination, but in fact there is a lot of legislative maneuvering resulting in debates on COVID relief and health policy/pre-existing conditions.

Right now, Sen Brown is leading the charge for the Democrats and Sen Johnson is holding the line for the Republicans.


China again . . . what a shocker!  
What a great country that is . . .


RE: We're #1 !!! - OutsiderFan - 10-24-2020

Better to be ready for what is coming than be caught blind-sided by it.

This is just heart breaking. And Czech Republic was doing so well.  Damnit if its experience didn't influence me to start wearing a mask in March.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/belgium-covid-hospitals-schools/2020/10/23/85358010-14a9-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html


RE: We're #1 !!! - BostonCard - 10-24-2020

I don’t think we will need to go on lockdown again, but we may see restrictions ratcheted up until cases level off and start coming down.

Real time case tracking would be invaluable to give us an idea of what the lowest hanging fruit are to restrict.

BC


RE: We're #1 !!! - chrisk - 10-24-2020

(10-24-2020, 01:20 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  
(10-24-2020, 11:42 AM)chrisk Wrote:  Ireland has imposed a 6-week soft lockdown.  Police are enforcing a 3-mile limit on the distance people can travel from home.

Wales imposed a 17-day firebreak lockdown Friday.  Very few exceptions for leaving your house and no inter-household mingling allowed.

The obituary for lockdowns has been prematurely written.  It is not clear that Americans are responsible enough to avoid a strict lockdown.  In China, people were “nudged” to do the right thing, but life got back to close to normal much more quickly than it is in the US.

With Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up, January could be the worst month on record.

The Senate is ostensibly in session today to debate the Supreme Court nomination, but in fact there is a lot of legislative maneuvering resulting in debates on COVID relief and health policy/pre-existing conditions.

Right now, Sen Brown is leading the charge for the Democrats and Sen Johnson is holding the line for the Republicans.


China again . . . what a shocker!  
What a great country that is . . .

Taiwan did even better than China and used less force. Some Americans seem unwilling to accept their F grade in managing COVID.


RE: We're #1 !!! - Farm93 - 10-24-2020

(10-24-2020, 03:52 PM)chrisk Wrote:  
(10-24-2020, 01:20 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  
(10-24-2020, 11:42 AM)chrisk Wrote:  Ireland has imposed a 6-week soft lockdown.  Police are enforcing a 3-mile limit on the distance people can travel from home.

Wales imposed a 17-day firebreak lockdown Friday.  Very few exceptions for leaving your house and no inter-household mingling allowed.

The obituary for lockdowns has been prematurely written.  It is not clear that Americans are responsible enough to avoid a strict lockdown.  In China, people were “nudged” to do the right thing, but life got back to close to normal much more quickly than it is in the US.

With Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up, January could be the worst month on record.

The Senate is ostensibly in session today to debate the Supreme Court nomination, but in fact there is a lot of legislative maneuvering resulting in debates on COVID relief and health policy/pre-existing conditions.

Right now, Sen Brown is leading the charge for the Democrats and Sen Johnson is holding the line for the Republicans.


China again . . . what a shocker!  
What a great country that is . . .

Taiwan did even better than China and used less force.  Some Americans seem unwilling to accept their F grade in managing COVID.
A few of the Asian and Pacific nations are creeping back up with cases, but since they have a much lower base rate of cases they have a fighting chance to keep cases down in this second wave.  Many countries in Asia also have populations that will make shared sacrifices for the benefit of their nation.  

POTUS45 says he wouldn't change much and gave himself an A.   If you are a typical citizen inclined to think any POTUS must know a lot about important global events, then it would be hard to ignore his A grade and drop the USA down to F.    In polling ~65-70% say the USA has done a bad job, and ~25-30+% say the USA has done a great job with COVID.

POTUS45 may be a horrible government leader, but he is really good at messaging to get 30% of the people to believe him on COVID.   I thought pitching for debt after 5 or 6 bankruptcies was the sign of a great pitchman.    Getting 25+% to support his COVID19 management is amazing.

Ignoring his messaging, it seems clear our management of the virus has been awful.  The "F" potentially may impact our economy in ways we will not appreciate for a few quarters, but for the moment getting ready for the "dark winter" should be the federal government's #1 priority.


RE: We're #1 !!! - BostonCard - 10-24-2020




We've broken 80,000 new cases the last two days.  Some of that is due to increased testing, even compared to the summer, but despite the increased testing, the proportion positive have been going up.  Moreover, the number of hospitalizations are increasing, though still not yet at the level seen in March/April and July/August.  Deaths have started to creep up, but they are a lagging indicator.

BC


RE: We're #1 !!! - GoodGrief - 10-25-2020

(10-24-2020, 01:20 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  China again . . . what a shocker!  
What a great country that is . . .

My buddy in Beijing reports that life is pretty much back to normal now. His kid is attending school in person and people are back to work. He wears a mask if he's going into a store or a movie theatre, but that's about it. He says that when walking on the street, 30-40% of the people are wearing masks, but it's not a big deal either way because it's basically been contained.

When I told him that some people in the US don't want to wear masks because of freedom, he laughed and said, "I'd rather have my life. I'll trade a few months of freedom to get my life back!"

But sure, tout American Exceptionalism, if that makes you feel better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsxukOPEdgg&feature=youtu.be&t=1523


RE: We're #1 !!! - teejers1 - 10-25-2020

(10-25-2020, 12:22 AM)GoodGrief Wrote:  
(10-24-2020, 01:20 PM)teejers1 Wrote:  China again . . . what a shocker!  
What a great country that is . . .

My buddy in Beijing reports that life is pretty much back to normal now. His kid is attending school in person and people are back to work. He wears a mask if he's going into a store or a movie theatre, but that's about it. He says that when walking on the street, 30-40% of the people are wearing masks, but it's not a big deal either way because it's basically been contained.

When I told him that some people in the US don't want to wear masks because of freedom, he laughed and said, "I'd rather have my life. I'll trade a few months of freedom to get my life back!"

But sure, tout American Exceptionalism, if that makes you feel better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsxukOPEdgg&feature=youtu.be&t=1523

That's a perfect quote from your friend!!


RE: We're #1 !!! - Genuine Realist - 10-25-2020

(10-24-2020, 03:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I don’t think we will need to go on lockdown again, but we may see restrictions ratcheted up until cases level off and start coming down.

Real time case tracking would be invaluable to give us an idea of what the lowest hanging fruit are to restrict.

BC
To me, the issue on lockdowns is how long lasting the effect. If it is relatively temporary, only a palliative (as the European experience seems to show), what ultimately is the point? My own belief is that we are going to see more and more refined measures of social distancing, rather than an out-and-out lockdown.

As to China, sorry, but there is a credibility gap here. I'm not inclined to believe any posturing of that nation unless independently verified.

Masking and social distancing is so incontestably effective it is hard to see the point of resistance. Trump bears a heavy burden of responsibility for undercutting this. 

But the bottom line is that I don't think any nation has come up with a solution that balances out the various factors of economic distress and public health concern in a fully rational manner. There is an act-of-God quality to the Covid phenomenon that is often overlooked when we get down to 'mere politics'.