Third qurter GDP - Printable Version
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Third qurter GDP - BostonCard - 10-29-2020
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928797051/u-s-economy-grows-at-record-pace-but-still-has-a-long-way-to-go
Third quarter GDP grew at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (7.4% quarter on quarter). That's a nice rebound, but
Quote:Analysts note the economy is still about 3.5% smaller than it was at the end of last year, before the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
For comparison, real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 (in the Great Recession), so this is not quite as bad. And, unfortunately, as viruses get worse, there is a very real risk of a double dip.
I think if you had told me back in April that the total economic effect of the pandemic was a 3.5% hit on the economy through three quarters, I would have probably sighed in relief. Things could have been much worse. Of course, that's not much comfort for the millions who are unemployed or the hundreds of thousands who died due to the pandemic, but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
BC
RE: Third qurter GDP - Mick - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928797051/u-s-economy-grows-at-record-pace-but-still-has-a-long-way-to-go
Third quarter GDP grew at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (7.4% quarter on quarter). That's a nice rebound, but
Quote:Analysts note the economy is still about 3.5% smaller than it was at the end of last year, before the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
For comparison, real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 (in the Great Recession), so this is not quite as bad. And, unfortunately, as viruses get worse, there is a very real risk of a double dip.
I think if you had told me back in April that the total economic effect of the pandemic was a 3.5% hit on the economy through three quarters, I would have probably sighed in relief. Things could have been much worse. Of course, that's not much comfort for the millions who are unemployed or the hundreds of thousands who died due to the pandemic, but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
BC
The economy was roaring pre-pandemic. Taxes were lower, that helped. The stimulus helped. Candidly, we need another stimulus to keep it going. I anticipate the economy will slow under Biden once taxes are raised again, regulation is reintroduced, Biden will reverse Trump EOs, we'll become beholden to foreign treaties again. Sign of the times. At least Powell has promised to keep rates low through 2022.
Another 751,000 jobs lost last week.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 10 was, a decrease 22,654,453 of 415,727 from the previous week. There were 1,411,728 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
RE: Third qurter GDP - magnus - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
Herd immunity? half joking. Are you referring to the introduction of a vaccine or something else?
And yeah, I'm very surprised by the numbers...then again I'm no economist nor do I dabble in such areas.
RE: Third qurter GDP - teejers1 - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 09:56 AM)magnus Wrote:(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
Herd immunity? half joking. Are you referring to the introduction of a vaccine or something else?
And yeah, I'm very surprised by the numbers...then again I'm no economist nor do I dabble in such areas.
Generally speaking, my sense is that Tech sector marching on, almost without skipping a beat. Lots of older, people-driven industries . . . ouch!
RE: Third qurter GDP - OutsiderFan - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 09:55 AM)Mick Wrote:(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928797051/u-s-economy-grows-at-record-pace-but-still-has-a-long-way-to-go
Third quarter GDP grew at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (7.4% quarter on quarter). That's a nice rebound, but
Quote:Analysts note the economy is still about 3.5% smaller than it was at the end of last year, before the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
For comparison, real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 (in the Great Recession), so this is not quite as bad. And, unfortunately, as viruses get worse, there is a very real risk of a double dip.
I think if you had told me back in April that the total economic effect of the pandemic was a 3.5% hit on the economy through three quarters, I would have probably sighed in relief. Things could have been much worse. Of course, that's not much comfort for the millions who are unemployed or the hundreds of thousands who died due to the pandemic, but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
BC
The economy was roaring pre-pandemic. Taxes were lower, that helped. The stimulus helped. Candidly, we need another stimulus to keep it going. I anticipate the economy will slow under Biden once taxes are raised again, regulation is reintroduced, Biden will reverse Trump EOs, we'll become beholden to foreign treaties again. Sign of the times. At least Powell has promised to keep rates low through 2022.
Another 751,000 jobs lost last week.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 10 was, a decrease 22,654,453 of 415,727 from the previous week. There were 1,411,728 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
It may be counterintuitive, but the data shows increasing taxes - in a very prescriptive way - actually leads to economic growth. It is my firm belief that policies geared to average a new green economy revolution will be the next growth driver like the internet was.
RE: Third qurter GDP - Farm93 - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 10:12 AM)teejers1 Wrote:Tech sector will be fine, perhaps even great as COVID may accelerate the decline of traditional/legacy approaches to business.(10-29-2020, 09:56 AM)magnus Wrote:(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
Herd immunity? half joking. Are you referring to the introduction of a vaccine or something else?
And yeah, I'm very surprised by the numbers...then again I'm no economist nor do I dabble in such areas.
Generally speaking, my sense is that Tech sector marching on, almost without skipping a beat. Lots of older, people-driven industries . . . ouch!
Those in Europe and America working in the service, travel, hospitality and tourism may not find the winter easy to endure.
My kids have destroyed their keyboards and mice over 8 months of near full day use, so I zipped off to my local Fry's Electronics for a fast replacement today. I know Fry's has been in decline, but I drove into the parking lot and seriously thought the store might have been out of business. A parking lot that routinely had 50-100 cars just 12 months ago, had 8 cars. That's it, 8 cars. I really thought they were the vehicles of those bankruptcy tear down crews. At checkout there was only one cashier, this from a store that had 30+ registers. I just can't imagine my local Fry's will be open in January 2021.
The Q3 GDP results were very helpful. It would have been devastating to dump all that money into the economy and then still see declines. It will also make it a touch more likely some companies and industries will be able to endure the dark winter on our horizon.
More stimulus for the dark winter would have been nice, but pretty confident we will see something for those hardest hit by COVID in February 2021. Hardest hit probably would include unemployed, underemployed, lost home, lost company, and public schools with clear COVID19 mitigation expenses.
RE: Third qurter GDP - Goose - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 10:39 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It is my firm belief that policies geared to average a new green economy revolution will be the next growth driver like the internet was.
That could happen, but it will happen only if the Government intervenes only minimally. The internet revolution worked because it was driven by individuals unencumbered by predefined solutions and in ways that didn't exist at the start of the development.
European politicians are finally coming to grips with the fact that they have no real plan to provide electricity at night and no real plan to replace natural gas heating. Germany has started on a hydrogen program (belatedly IMHO). We in the USA are behind even that. California produces "a lot" of renewable energy, but much of that is solar and unavailable at night. 34% of our power is nuclear, which is scheduled to go away, yet we have no substitute on the drawing boards. Recently the State was forced to grant a waver for several large natural gas plants to continue operating because there was no peaking capability to replace them. This was true even though the deadline to shut these plants had been known for years.
What we need from Government isn't a carbon tax (or the like), but rather a viable plan/requirement to actually replace the generation capacity with renewable energy. This plan doesn't need to (and shouldn't) say exactly how. It should just say emissions must drop by X in 5 years, no ifs, ands, or buts.. Force the power companies to build a new infrastructure to do it by simply forbidding them to continue burning natural gas/coal. It can be done using technology we have at present. The solutions available aren't necessarily ideal, and may not be cheap, but they exist. With such a big financial incentive to reduce costs, you will be amazed at how fast the technology advances and the solutions improve. I for one don't think battery storage on a massive scale will ever be practical and environmentally acceptable, but I am willing to be proven wrong. Tax relief will be required (probably) for the investment required for such a massive change. However, we have to mean it when we make this a national priority equivalent to (or larger than) the race to the moon. That will get us there. Diddling around the edges as we have been doing will not.
RE: Third qurter GDP - BostonCard - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 09:56 AM)magnus Wrote:(10-29-2020, 08:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.
Herd immunity? half joking. Are you referring to the introduction of a vaccine or something else?
And yeah, I'm very surprised by the numbers...then again I'm no economist nor do I dabble in such areas.
Yes, I meant that a vaccine should start to become available by spring. If you can vaccinate the most vulnerable early, you'd have more confidence that a strategy that relaxes restrictions but tries to protect vulnerable patients will not be doomed to fail. That's my concern with the Great Barrington declaration, which underestimates the difficulty involved in isolating vulnerable populations. If, instead, you can implement an immunological cordon sanitaire, you might feel better about letting case counts rise.
There is of course the issue that some otherwise healthy people will get very sick if enough people get the virus, and the fact likelihood that the vaccine will not be perfect, so I don't think you can throw caution to the wind entirely, but I think we'll have a very different reaction to another spike (if it happens) next summer if the vaccination program is underway.
BC
RE: Third qurter GDP - Nan3cy - 10-29-2020
I read — or heard on the radio, can’t remember which — that Jeff Bezos could give each of his hundreds of thousands of employees a *large* bonus (memory says $80K, but won’t swear to it) and still have the same net worth as he had last Dec. 31. I’d say he’s doing okay.