Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - Printable Version
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Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - magnus - 10-29-2020
Here's a pretty neat visualization of indoor spread and also how certain mitigation steps can help.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Nothing groundbreaking for this crowd.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - teejers1 - 10-29-2020
(10-29-2020, 10:36 PM)magnus Wrote: Here's a pretty neat visualization of indoor spread and also how certain mitigation steps can help.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Nothing groundbreaking for this crowd.
This reminds me of something I've been meaning to say: this board is a great resource for Covid-related information. I suspect many of you believe I'm in the "Covid just like the flu" camp, but I do appreciate the insights brought to bear here and I'm sure they help inform my view of what is baseline, reasonable, and extra level precautions. Good stuff.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - JustAnotherFan - 10-30-2020
(10-29-2020, 10:36 PM)magnus Wrote: Here's a pretty neat visualization of indoor spread and also how certain mitigation steps can help.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Nothing groundbreaking for this crowd.
My question is what can be done to help move people who are in the anti-masker, open it up camp to engage in these simpler NPIs that can have a substantial impact on public health? It seems that the folks in those camps are religiously committed to their position, and much of the rest of society is fatigued. I don't know that this article and the graphics are going to move people. I don't know what will at this point. Anyone have any ideas or are we just going to be forced to suffer it out?
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - magnus - 10-30-2020
(10-30-2020, 05:15 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(10-29-2020, 10:36 PM)magnus Wrote: Here's a pretty neat visualization of indoor spread and also how certain mitigation steps can help.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Nothing groundbreaking for this crowd.
My question is what can be done to help move people who are in the anti-masker, open it up camp to engage in these simpler NPIs that can have a substantial impact on public health? It seems that the folks in those camps are religiously committed to their position, and much of the rest of society is fatigued. I don't know that this article and the graphics are going to move people. I don't know what will at this point. Anyone have any ideas or are we just going to be forced to suffer it out?
At this point, unfortunately, it's likely the only thing that may change the mind of one who is opposed to masking is if they experience personal impact. If someone they know gets adversely affected.
But that won't happen at a large enough scale unless the world gets way more infected. =(
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - OutsiderFan - 10-31-2020
It sounds absurd, but public health agencies should pool their resources to do some national advertising campaigns that feature the people in ICUs. Maybe even set up some live cams of them on a website called Covidisreal.com or AvoidCovid.com so people can see why they don't want to get it.
Wear a mask. Keep distance. Avoid crowds without good ventilation.
As for the El Pais interactive infographics, they are fantastic. Basically shows if buildings can replicate the air treatment airplanes now have and everyone wears a mask, we should be able to get kids in classrooms. The problem is most schools don't have great ventilation.
Was talking with my aunt who is a former teacher, and my cousin who is now a teacher at Bellarmine about this. Public schools don't have adequate ventilation. Privates like Bellarmine might. Speaking of Bellarmine, they are apparently trying to have teachers instruct 50% of their class in person and 50% from home at same time. Of course, this puts strain on bandwidth, with several teachers doing video streaming on the same connection, so the school must ramp up Wifi networks as well.
But even if they can pull it off, by spending thousands of dollars public schools don't have, to upgrade HVAC and bandwidth, good luck keeping the 50% at home engaged. My aunt said some of her current teacher friends doing all remote from their own homes, say some kids don't turn on their cameras for Zoom classes so teachers have no idea what they are doing.
This pandemic must be brought under control, so the real public health leaders must find a way to get around the indifferent federal government response. This is especially the case when the pandemic is peaking at a time there is a lame duck POTUS who is so manifestly Evil, he will want as many Americans infected and dying as possible to punish them for his election defeat.
How sad is it that nobody on this board can make any credible argument refuting my last sentence. We all have the receipts to prove it is an unassailable reality.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - DocSavage87 - 10-31-2020
At this point, some % of the Trump supporters are closer to a cult than a rational political movement. Not sure what percentage of his base are unmovable. They literally would figure out some way to convince themselves if he shot someone on 5th Ave why his actions were justified. An example is a woman in Wisconsin whose father died of COVID-19, she got it (still can't taste), and a lot of her relatives got it -- but they are still totally onboard with Trump.
https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-2020-covid-killed-rhondas-father-but-she-is-still-100-donald-trump-12117427
No public messaging will matter to these people. The only positive here is that these people will likely get infected early, and if immunity holds for at least six months, they will drop out of the spreaders at some point. Trump is an example himself. He got it, was cured with treatment nobody else can get, is likely not a spreader anymore, and happily preaches COVID-19 is no big deal. If disinformation itself is considered a virus, as long as the COVIDIOT virus doesn't spread as well, rational people who follow guidelines will be affected less by these people in future.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - teejers1 - 10-31-2020
(10-31-2020, 06:03 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It sounds absurd, but public health agencies should pool their resources to do some national advertising campaigns that feature the people in ICUs. Maybe even set up some live cams of them on a website called Covidisreal.com or AvoidCovid.com so people can see why they don't want to get it.
Wear a mask. Keep distance. Avoid crowds without good ventilation.
As for the El Pais interactive infographics, they are fantastic. Basically shows if buildings can replicate the air treatment airplanes now have and everyone wears a mask, we should be able to get kids in classrooms. The problem is most schools don't have great ventilation.
Was talking with my aunt who is a former teacher, and my cousin who is now a teacher at Bellarmine about this. Public schools don't have adequate ventilation. Privates like Bellarmine might. Speaking of Bellarmine, they are apparently trying to have teachers instruct 50% of their class in person and 50% from home at same time. Of course, this puts strain on bandwidth, with several teachers doing video streaming on the same connection, so the school must ramp up Wifi networks as well.
But even if they can pull it off, by spending thousands of dollars public schools don't have, to upgrade HVAC and bandwidth, good luck keeping the 50% at home engaged. My aunt said some of her current teacher friends doing all remote from their own homes, say some kids don't turn on their cameras for Zoom classes so teachers have no idea what they are doing.
This pandemic must be brought under control, so the real public health leaders must find a way to get around the indifferent federal government response. This is especially the case when the pandemic is peaking at a time there is a lame duck POTUS who is so manifestly Evil, he will want as many Americans infected and dying as possible to punish them for his election defeat.
How sad is it that nobody on this board can make any credible argument refuting my last sentence. We all have the receipts to prove it is an unassailable reality.
As I said in another thread: sometimes you crack me up.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - 2006alum - 11-01-2020
Whoever wins on Tuesday, this nation faces a long road to overcoming twin ills that ail us - coronavirus and partisanship. And whereas we will eventually develop at least some natural or vaccination-derived immunity to the former, I'm increasingly at a loss as to how we inoculate against the latter, short of a total ban on social media and mandatory conscription into a national public service. It's so devastating to see that our worst wounds right now are almost all self-inflicted.
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - BostonCard - 11-01-2020
(10-31-2020, 06:03 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This is especially the case when the pandemic is peaking at a time there is a lame duck POTUS who is so manifestly Evil, he will want as many Americans infected and dying as possible to punish them for his election defeat.
How sad is it that nobody on this board can make any credible argument refuting my last sentence. We all have the receipts to prove it is an unassailable reality.
The reason no one can refute the statement is that it is an unfalsifiable opinion. Also, whatever you think of him, for the purposes of this board, let’s focus on the president’s actions (or lack thereof) on the coronavirus pandemic.
BC
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - Mick - 11-01-2020
Personally, I think Biden/Harris will win. But if Trump wins, this will be why:
https://medium.com/@PhillipStutts/election-analysis-exclusive-here-is-what-will-happen-on-nov-3-f6426c3d83e7
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - teejers1 - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 11:14 AM)Mick Wrote: Personally, I think Biden/Harris will win. But if Trump wins, this will be why:
https://medium.com/@PhillipStutts/election-analysis-exclusive-here-is-what-will-happen-on-nov-3-f6426c3d83e7
There are many valid points in that article, much to the chagrin of most/all of us here.
But what I think the biggest risk is what I call the Boomerang Vote, where voters do a 180 from what the MSM has been hounding them to think/act for literally years. This is encompassed in the pro-protest coverage (when most people favor law and order and the police), and the anti-Trump presentation of every "news" story - and again, I'm not talking about reporting on what Trump says or does, but on the many other things going on in the world that are presented in an anti-Trump fashion. I think there is risk of backfire (as the article suggests with the Shy Voter and the be nice to surveyor voter). We'll see how large that effect is . . . maybe some, maybe a small amount.
But at real bottom, I think the country is just tired and beaten down from the heat being turned up on everything, from minor issue to bigger issue. And a large part of that blame goes to Trump, who escalates everything. It's just exhausting, and I think people have had enough. I know I have . . .
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - BostonCard - 11-01-2020
Based on Trump voters I know, they are anything but shy. Even in 2016, the polls were within 1% of the final margin, but they didn’t weight by education, when there whites without college degrees were under sampled and disproportionately voted for Trump, which made a difference in a handful of key states.
A Trump win is unlikely but hardly impossible. If it happens, it will be due to something that was unanticipated. If you are looking for reasons to be sanguine about a Trump victory, there is the Des Moins register poll of Iowa run by Anne Seltzer, who is considered the best in the business. She found a 6 point Trump advantage in Iowa, which was exactly the same advantage she found in 2016, when he won by 10 points. As I said, unlikely but far from impossible.
BC
RE: Visualization of indoor spread and how to mitigate - BostonCard - 11-01-2020
Why 10% is not 0.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/
BC