Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Printable Version
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Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - M T - 11-01-2020
Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared. Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months. This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.
Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31. Germany's population is 83,871,855. That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population. California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.
For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.
Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!) But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not. I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.
To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen. I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.
The projected infection rates are sobering. Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K; US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K. I surely hope they are wrong!
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - OutsiderFan - 11-01-2020
There is one variable that may not have received enough attention. That is the weather. This may be a little crude. so apologies if it is.
The pandemic didn't hit Europe and the U.S. until basically the end of Winter/start of Spring. It seems evident the virus spreads easier in cooler temperatures with less humidity, not necessarily because of this, but because people go more indoors in cooler less humid conditions. I'm no HVAC expert, but my guess is heating air is dependent on it being "stagnant" at lower temps. When it is cool, moving air lowers "feels like" temps, so you don't want air moving much when heating the air to get to 68-70 degrees or it is inefficient. You don't run AC when heating a room, and most buildings are controlled by thermostats that determine what goes on and doesn't. It's not a manual process. So by definition it seems buildings being heated in Winter are going to have poorer ventilation.
All this is to say it's very possible Germany took the right steps to mitigate spread when first exposed to the pandemic, it saw success, and in the interest of balancing economic interests, relaxed them a bit. Then cooler temps came and we see the virus spreads much more going into and in Winter than coming out of it and in to Spring and Summer. Think of how many more casualties Germany would have had if it didn't take the measures it did. Just look at the U.S. for an example.
I'm 100% convinced ventilation and mask wearing is the key to mitigating virus spread, and probably limiting time in groups larger than 50. The El Pais infographic confirmed what I suspected about this. But even with mask wearing, without good ventilation and air filtration, we can't get people together safely. Without mask wearing and ventilation it's a powder keg when people are together.
Some environments are going to have better ventilation and mask compliance than others. The difficulty with this situation is Public Health leaders don't have the luxury of saying businesses can be open based on their HVAC status. They are much more broad and say "all these businesses must close" as if they all have the same ventilation dynamics when they absolutely do not. There could be 50% of salons that have adequate ventilation to prevent virus spread in appointment windows, and 50% who do not. Public Health policy isn't - at least now - able to say salons or restaurants with Grade A & B ventilation can open but those below Grade B cannot open.
It just sucks that we can't use much more refined guidelines based on building ventilation, to regulate what businesses can open under what conditions, and instead resort to closing businesses based on their type. If we applied restrictions based on building conditions, the public would be much more open to accepting them, and we'd incur far less economic damage too, which would further increase acceptance, which also will mitigate virus spread, which is the goal after all.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Farm93 - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 01:00 AM)M T Wrote: Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared. Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months. This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.Germany handled the time between the first and second waves better. In Germany you can actually see two unique waves.
Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31. Germany's population is 83,871,855. That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population. California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.
For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.
Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!) But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not. I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.
To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen. I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.
The projected infection rates are sobering. Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K; US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K. I surely hope they are wrong!
A few things do matter going forward. Germany has a greater population density and a more hospitable climate for COVID-19. Germany should be a touch better off than a few other EU countries with bigger and more crowded cities, less robust health care infrastructure, and more people reliant upon public transportation.
Germany has 126 COVID19 deaths per million right now. The USA has COVID 712 deaths per million. (Worldometers on Nov 1 at 7:30AM PST)
Projections going forward may be off for one or both countries but since 126<712, Germany has done a better job.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but....I will bet on Germany to do better than those numbers in the projections. France, Austria, Poland, and the Netherlands all have lower ramps. It is a bit hard for me to believe that Germany will underperform all of its neighbors, at least on the Worldometers projections.
I would go as far as to say if Germany gets up to those projected death and case rate levels, then they will not be alone. In that world, other countries that have been slower to use math and science (Italy, Spain, UK, USA) will eventually exceed Germany's levels. That'd be bad. :(
FWIW - Germany is not exactly the gold standard here, rather Germany illustrates that even a wealthy western economy could control COVID-19 even after getting hit hard in March/April. The real gold standard G20 level nations have been, and remain, S. Korea, Japan & Australia. And all three of them have projections for deaths and cases that the USA is unlikely to see in any month pre-vaccine.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - JustAnotherFan - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 08:46 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(11-01-2020, 01:00 AM)M T Wrote: Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared. Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months. This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.Germany handled the time between the first and second waves better. In Germany you can actually see two unique waves.
Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31. Germany's population is 83,871,855. That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population. California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.
For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.
Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!) But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not. I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.
To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen. I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.
The projected infection rates are sobering. Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K; US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K. I surely hope they are wrong!
A few things do matter going forward. Germany has a greater population density and a more hospitable climate for COVID-19. Germany should be a touch better off than a few other EU countries with bigger and more crowded cities, less robust health care infrastructure, and more people reliant upon public transportation.
Germany has 126 COVID19 deaths per million right now. The USA has COVID 712 deaths per million. (Worldometers on Nov 1 at 7:30AM PST)
Projections going forward may be off for one or both countries but since 126<712, Germany has done a better job.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but....I will bet on Germany to do better than those numbers in the projections. France, Austria, Poland, and the Netherlands all have lower ramps. It is a bit hard for me to believe that Germany will underperform all of its neighbors, at least on the Worldometers projections.
I would go as far as to say if Germany gets up to those projected death and case rate levels, then they will not be alone. In that world, other countries that have been slower to use math and science (Italy, Spain, UK, USA) will eventually exceed Germany's levels. That'd be bad. :(
FWIW - Germany is not exactly the gold standard here, rather Germany illustrates that even a wealthy western economy could control COVID-19 even after getting hit hard in March/April. The real gold standard G20 level nations have been, and remain, S. Korea, Japan & Australia. And all three of them have projections for deaths and cases that the USA is unlikely to see in any month pre-vaccine.
I agree with everything you posted but it is worth noting that Australia is an island, Japan is an archipelago, and S. Korea is virtually an island since it's only border is with N. Korea. Same can be said for other success stories in Singapore, Taiwan, and New Zealand. The EU countries can face more challenges in having to deal with shared borders with neighbors who do not take Covid-19 measures as seriously. That's why I feel so much for Mexico and Canada (and some states/counties internally).
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - BostonCard - 11-01-2020
Great Britain is an island.
Uruguay is bordered by two countries with widespread COVID-19; two of the highest in the world.
Are you really saying that “but for our land borders with Mexico and Canada, we would have had COVID-19 under control?” Most of the country was seeded by European cases.
BC
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - JustAnotherFan - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 10:32 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Great Britain is an island.
Uruguay is bordered by two countries with widespread COVID-19; two of the highest in the world.
Are you really saying that “but for our land borders with Mexico and Canada, we would have had COVID-19 under control?” Most of the country was seeded by European cases.
BC
You should definitely re-read what I wrote. I pity Mexico and Canada for sharing a border with us, I don't blame them. Our failures are self-inflicted.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-01-2020
As many of you know, I have lamented repeatedly the fact the USA did not initially possess and did not subsequently rapidly develop an "adequate" tracking and tracing system to control the virus. The EU nations, particularly Germany, seemed to have possessed and/or developed/augmented their capabilities to do so. Certainly Italy appeared to be controlling the outbreak.
Unfortunately, based on current numbers, it appears that the EU nations actually have failed in their attempt to control the virus using the only "strategy" (tracking and tracing) that existed to do so. We in the USA didn't have the necessary programs in place when the outbreak occurred. We made some attempt to create such programs, but basically gave up when it became clear serious enforcement would be required to make it work. After that, we had no strategy available other than "ride it out and hope for a vaccine". It would appear that despite their initially better preparedness and greater public cooperation (and willingness to enforce if necessary), the EU is basically in the same situation. "The Dance" has failed.
There are nations where it has not failed, but 1) It may yet fail, and 2) most of these nations have unique characteristics that greatly aid the use of tracking and tracing. However, given the current situation in the US and the EU, I think it is clear that we really need a "plan C". Plan A was shutdown, get cases under control, track and trace. It didn't work for the USA, and now it isn't working for the EU. Plan B is ride it out, take some lumps, and wait for a vaccine to save us. Problem is, those lumps (deaths and economics both) are going to be bad no matter how we balance the competing factors. It is going to possibly be a long time before even a "good" vaccine will save us, and it postulates that COVID-19 immunity is "fairly robust". We think it is, but we don't actually know. Thus, for these reasons, we really need a "plan C". Suggestions welcome.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - akiddoc - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 12:48 PM)Goose Wrote: As many of you know, I have lamented repeatedly the fact the USA did not initially possess and did not subsequently rapidly develop an "adequate" tracking and tracing system to control the virus. The EU nations, particularly Germany, seemed to have possessed and/or developed/augmented their capabilities to do so. Certainly Italy appeared to be controlling the outbreak.
Unfortunately, based on current numbers, it appears that the EU nations actually have failed in their attempt to control the virus using the only "strategy" (tracking and tracing) that existed to do so. We in the USA didn't have the necessary programs in place when the outbreak occurred. We made some attempt to create such programs, but basically gave up when it became clear serious enforcement would be required to make it work. After that, we had no strategy available other than "ride it out and hope for a vaccine". It would appear that despite their initially better preparedness and greater public cooperation (and willingness to enforce if necessary), the EU is basically in the same situation. "The Dance" has failed.
There are nations where it has not failed, but 1) It may yet fail, and 2) most of these nations have unique characteristics that greatly aid the use of tracking and tracing. However, given the current situation in the US and the EU, I think it is clear that we really need a "plan C". Plan A was shutdown, get cases under control, track and trace. It didn't work for the USA, and now it isn't working for the EU. Plan B is ride it out, take some lumps, and wait for a vaccine to save us. Problem is, those lumps (deaths and economics both) are going to be bad no matter how we balance the competing factors. It is going to possibly be a long time before even a "good" vaccine will save us, and it postulates that COVID-19 immunity is "fairly robust". We think it is, but we don't actually know. Thus, for these reasons, we really need a "plan C". Suggestions welcome.
There never was a true shut down in the USA. The effort to do so was so haphazard and the compliance was so poor that you can't say it wouldn't work. You can say that Americans are unwilling to do it.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - oregontim - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 12:48 PM)Goose Wrote: There are nations where it has not failed, but 1) It may yet fail, and 2) most of these nations have unique characteristics that greatly aid the use of tracking and tracing. However, given the current situation in the US and the EU, I think it is clear that we really need a "plan C". Plan A was shutdown, get cases under control, track and trace. It didn't work for the USA, and now it isn't working for the EU. Plan B is ride it out, take some lumps, and wait for a vaccine to save us. Problem is, those lumps (deaths and economics both) are going to be bad no matter how we balance the competing factors. It is going to possibly be a long time before even a "good" vaccine will save us, and it postulates that COVID-19 immunity is "fairly robust". We think it is, but we don't actually know. Thus, for these reasons, we really need a "plan C". Suggestions welcome.
Plan C suggestion:
- Unified national leadership, united messaging, calling us all to crisis mode, banging us over our collective heads with "now is the time for all of us to come together to fight this threat every way possible." Unified messaging. Lots of available information like what we saw today in the "visualization of indoor spread" thread.
- Multi-faceted everything possible program to make PPE available, testing available, tracing, distancing, careful management of what businesses open and underh what conditions. National recommendations with clear messaging, political pressure on states to conform with higher likelihood of success after the politics fade.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 01:14 PM)akiddoc Wrote: There never was a true shut down in the USA. The effort to do so was so haphazard and the compliance was so poor that you can't say it wouldn't work. You can say that Americans are unwilling to do it.I agree that the shutdown in the USA was haphazard and the compliance was very poor. However, that was also true in Italy. What Italy was willing to do that the USA was not was to enforce compliance. That fixed the problem, and actually did so without much ado. Our politicians (Gavin Newsom being a poster child of this) simply were and are unwilling to do what was necessary. I am not actually sure Americans are unwilling to do what it took, but rather that our political leaders were unwilling to apply the pressure that it would take to make it work. We have people in the USA who test the limits, and when they discover there are none, compliance fails. You need enforcement to show you are serious. Then the vast majority will comply and the very few who don't will probably get caught.
That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - 82 Card - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 01:50 PM)Goose Wrote: That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.
It would be more accurate to say that the EU's post-shutdown strategy is not working for them. The EU has not been in a shutdown for many months. They are now starting to shut things down again.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 06:20 PM)82 Card Wrote:Exactly. And that is the problem. The post-shutdown strategy was tracking and tracing a relatively low level number of cases and keeping the number of cases low. That hasn't worked. We in the USA never got our case numbers low enough and never had/developed good enough contact tracing to make it work here. In the EU, they did both, but yet it still didn't work.(11-01-2020, 01:50 PM)Goose Wrote: That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.
It would be more accurate to say that the EU's post-shutdown strategy is not working for them. The EU has not been in a shutdown for many months. They are now starting to shut things down again.
It may be in the presence of any significant relaxation of a lockdown, contact tracking and tracing just won't work in some societies. This appears to be the case based on what we see in the EU. Exactly why that happened isn't (yet) clear, but it did.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Farm93 - 11-01-2020
(11-01-2020, 06:43 PM)Goose Wrote:That's not quite true. The EU efforts worked for ~5 months. And they used that time to get ready for the second wave. Their leaders were very clear that the second wave might be difficult, and now as they move to a new set of lockdowns the citizens do not seem shocked.(11-01-2020, 06:20 PM)82 Card Wrote:Exactly. And that is the problem. The post-shutdown strategy was tracking and tracing a relatively low level number of cases and keeping the number of cases low. That hasn't worked. We in the USA never got our case numbers low enough and never had/developed good enough contact tracing to make it work here. In the EU, they did both, but yet it still didn't work.(11-01-2020, 01:50 PM)Goose Wrote: That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.
It would be more accurate to say that the EU's post-shutdown strategy is not working for them. The EU has not been in a shutdown for many months. They are now starting to shut things down again.
It may be in the presence of any significant relaxation of a lockdown, contact tracking and tracing just won't work in some societies. This appears to be the case based on what we see in the EU. Exactly why that happened isn't (yet) clear, but it did.
The EU nations got the cases down in an attempt to prioritize school openings, and ultimately the virus is just too efficient. However, if you look at the EU leader messaging over the last 5 months, they were not generally saying the battle is over or things of that type.
The USA prioritized bars, restaurants, nail salons, sports, AND schools, so it seems logical that the virus will prevail here too in time. IMHO we are a few weeks behind the European curve because the fall weather is a bit better in the USA. Our current status certainly isn't because the USA citizens are doing enough to keep COVID in check for the winter.
The USA citizens and USA government officials here don't really seem ready for this next wave.
The idea that America and Americans are somehow too weak to do what is required feels wrong and counter to our country's history. I understand the many reasons why POTUS45 doesn't want to deliver tough love and epic struggle messages BEFORE an election, but I am hopeful those that understand the scope of the pending challenge will step up and say something after the election.
Hopeful some in government will tap into that spirit of American exceptionalism. That's my hope anyway since COVID19 will crush our health care system and our health care workers if we continue nationally to embrace the fatalistic vibe.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - BostonCard - 11-02-2020
Here's what Vietnam did:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1323088509855412224?s=20[/tweet]
The insight here is that it catches asymptomatic transmission and would cover transmission delays and to a degree sub-optimal tracking. There's a decent chance that if your F0 didn't identify all contacts, the F1 (contact of a positive test) could identify some mutual contacts with the F0, which would still be isolated. Moreover, if there was a delay in detecting the F0 case, you already have all the F1 contacts (the F2s) just in case one of the F1's subsequently turns positive. But wait, they go all the way to F5's with measures commensurate with risk, so that while all F0's go to the hospital, and all F1's are centrally quarantined, the F4's and F5's are merely advised to isolate at home. Given the patterns of asymptomatic transmission, this likely broke some chains of transmission that would have otherwise gone undetected.
I think the challenge is that I bet in Vietnam they had a pretty good compliance with tracking measures, whereas we know that when it has been tried in the US, the median F0 identifies only one contact.
BC
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - M T - 11-02-2020
(11-02-2020, 09:55 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I think the challenge is that I bet in Vietnam they had a pretty good compliance with tracking measures, whereas we know that when it has been tried in the US, the median F0 identifies only one contact.
If I read the numbers correctly for Santa Clara County, 43% of those who get a positive test identify NO close contacts.
We are still somewhat shutdown, but, really?
If that were correct, it is both good (that's why we don't spread as fast as elsewhere) and bad (how they heck did they get sick in the first place?)..
I might suspect the question is "Since you took your test, how many people have you spent more than 15 minutes with, withing 6 feet, and without a mask:?" (Which would be a (IMO) stupid way to look for such information. I hope that is NOT what they ask)
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-02-2020
(11-01-2020, 08:48 PM)Farm93 Wrote: That's not quite true. The EU efforts worked for ~5 months. And they used that time to get ready for the second wave. Their leaders were very clear that the second wave might be difficult, and now as they move to a new set of lockdowns the citizens do not seem shocked.
I have to disagree with you there. The friends I have in Italy aren't shocked, they are livid. This all was sold to them as a "solution", it turns out not to be, and their economy, which wasn't robust to being with, is now going to take another big hit. They all have different theories on exactly which reopening actions were the culprits, but they are all sure the government is to blame, as well as "other people".
Quote:The EU nations got the cases down in an attempt to prioritize school openings, and ultimately the virus is just too efficient. However, if you look at the EU leader messaging over the last 5 months, they were not generally saying the battle is over or things of that type.
Again, I have to disagree somewhat. The EU leader messaging has not been saying the battle was over, but the message to the public was that they were winning and all was well. As an example, this August, since most international travel was impossible, the Italian government subsidized in country vacations for the populace. This caused much travel that many are blaming for spreading disease (at low levels) around the country and eventually overwhelming the track and trace system. Not sure I can say this is the real "cause", but several of my friends think it was.
Quote:The USA prioritized bars, restaurants, nail salons, sports, AND schools, so it seems logical that the virus will prevail here too in time.
To a degree, so did Europe. Recall that the start of this second wave in Spain was blamed on tourists in bars. In Italy, many are saying the fact the authorities re-opened the "discos" was a major contributor to the current situation. Clearly, bars and other places where many people crowd together, talk loudly (because of the music/background noise), probably don't wear masks, and certainly are attempting the opposite of social distancing are not good things to open. Yet, in both the EU and the US, they often are.
Quote:IMHO we are a few weeks behind the European curve because the fall weather is a bit better in the USA. Our current status certainly isn't because the USA citizens are doing enough to keep COVID in check for the winter.
The USA citizens and USA government officials here don't really seem ready for this next wave.
We aren't, I totally agree. I also think Europe isn't ready either. The populace for sure didn't expect this, and in many places it isn't going down well.
Quote:The idea that America and Americans are somehow too weak to do what is required feels wrong and counter to our country's history. I understand the many reasons why POTUS45 doesn't want to deliver tough love and epic struggle messages BEFORE an election, but I am hopeful those that understand the scope of the pending challenge will step up and say something after the election.
Hopeful some in government will tap into that spirit of American exceptionalism. That's my hope anyway since COVID19 will crush our health care system and our health care workers if we continue nationally to embrace the fatalistic vibe.
While I don't disagree with the idea that we in the USA can do "what is required", I am not sure at this point that anyone knows what that is. If you try to tell people we need to be "locked down" until we have a widely distributed pretty good vaccine, it is going to be a very hard sell. That is probably at least a year away and maybe more. We have tried to get by with a minimal lockdown and a re-opening towards normal. That hasn't worked here for lots of reasons, but the fact it really hasn't worked in Europe either (and they are returning to lockdowns) make it very unclear what can be re-opened safely and how to do so.
If the plan is "empirically try various approaches to re-opening until we find out what actually is possible and what isn't, given public behavior", OK, that is a plan. I think that is where we are right now. I don't think many of us like it. I think this is true no matter who the POTUS is, unfortunately.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - BostonCard - 11-02-2020
(11-02-2020, 04:36 PM)Goose Wrote:(11-01-2020, 08:48 PM)Farm93 Wrote: That's not quite true. The EU efforts worked for ~5 months. And they used that time to get ready for the second wave. Their leaders were very clear that the second wave might be difficult, and now as they move to a new set of lockdowns the citizens do not seem shocked.
I have to disagree with you there. The friends I have in Italy aren't shocked, they are livid. This all was sold to them as a "solution", it turns out not to be, and their economy, which wasn't robust to being with, is now going to take another big hit. They all have different theories on exactly which reopening actions were the culprits, but they are all sure the government is to blame, as well as "other people".
This is, unfortunately very true, and why it is very hard to hold the line indefinitely. Ultimately, if you see people who are not maintaining social distancing, it is hard to keep one's own adherence with restrictions up. It of course doesn't help that the President didn't follow social distancing guidelines.
BC
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - M T - 11-02-2020
The little bit of brightness at the edge of the dark clouds is that the medical fields have seemingly improved outcomes. We all hope for a vaccine to save us. While I hold that hope, I know it is less than certain. It is worrisome to think that if people are reacting this way to this long-predicted round, what's going to happen if the vaccines don't work well?
There seems to be an assumption here that cold weather will bring increased cases, and that this is one of the reasons for a larger wave in the fall to winter. I believe that is the case with the flu. What do we know with COVID-19?
In the early days of COVID, there were discussions about whether summer was going to cause infections to go way down. People looked at cases in warmer climes. My impression was that there wasn't much evidence of benefit of one climate over another.
The bigger 2nd wave in Santa Clara County and the US that hit hard in July wasn't due to low temperatures (but one could imagine A/C had something to do with it).
We can all relate to motherly advice of a century ago of "Come inside, young man, before you catch your death of cold!". I know my (trained) reaction to being cold is to think I'm more likely to get a respiratory infection.
Considering that people adjust their outdoor time based on the temperature, most of us don't spend too much time out in the extreme heat or extreme cold (yes, there are exceptions). We spend most of our time indoors, summer or winter, and mostly in a range of 60-80F. Do we expect that to make a large difference? We're warm-blooded creatures, so it isn't that the environment in our body changes a lot in the way of temperature. So, what is it?
Does the winter environment (whether indoor or out) benefit the virus's longevity, and does that matter much when transmission is apparently primarily indoors? (less UV, colder outside, cooler inside)
Does the winter environment cause each individual to be more susceptible to infection (rhinitis, potentially less Vitamin D, less fruit in our diet, ...)?
Does the winter season have more opportunities for the virus to jump from person to person (school, for instance) or from group to group (holidays vs summer vacations)?
I'm not sure that SARS-COV-2 will behave the way Influenza does. It may.
I wish we knew the answers to these questions, as that might change our behaviors to something that reduced our chances of getting infected. For instance, if it was the difference in our indoor temperatures, we might set our thermostats at 78 rather than 68. If it is dryness, we might work hard to humidify our homes, work, and schools. If it were vitamin D, the CDC might actually recommend it as they finally did masks. etc.
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - BostonCard - 11-02-2020
The seasonal pattern in South Africa, Chile, and Australia certainly does suggest that cold weather brings increased cases, with cases peaking in July/August, as you would expect in the Southern Hemisphere's winter. But there are exceptions, and Argentina does not really fit the pattern (its peak in cases didn't occur until October).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
I will be interested to see if some of the northern hemisphere countries that did well in the "first wave" (China, South Korea, Japan) are still able to keep a lid on the pandemic as things get colder.
My theory (and it is just a theory), is that situations which cause people to congregate indoors, whether it is in the winter to stay warm, or the summer to stay cool in air conditioned buildings (one reason why Europe may not have seen as much of a summer surge is that fewer European buildings are air conditioned) helps spread the virus. That kind of explains why the summer wave was so much worse in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and California (especially southern California), and also seems to explain why the fall/winter wave is worst in the midwest. It doesn't explain everything though; Vermont and Maine, don't seem to have had much of a winter wave yet, though cases have started to rise.
BC
RE: Germany infections: Purple by Calif. standards; Projection is higher than US - Goose - 11-02-2020
(11-02-2020, 02:31 PM)M T Wrote: If I read the numbers correctly for Santa Clara County, 43% of those who get a positive test identify NO close contacts.I think you read the numbers correctly. However, what I think it means is that 43% of those who get a positive test refuse to cooperate. They name nobody (and probably do not isolate). It doesn't matter how you ask the question if that is the case. There is also the 15% who test positive and SCC Health can't reach them (for whatever reason). Those two numbers add up to 58% of the positive cases naming no contacts at all. It is interesting IMHO that the number of cases who are NOT "contacts to a case" in SCC parlance is 58.9%. Wonder why that is?
We are still somewhat shutdown, but, really?
If that were correct, it is both good (that's why we don't spread as fast as elsewhere) and bad (how they heck did they get sick in the first place?)..
I might suspect the question is "Since you took your test, how many people have you spent more than 15 minutes with, withing 6 feet, and without a mask:?" (Which would be a (IMO) stupid way to look for such information. I hope that is NOT what they ask)