It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Printable Version
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It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Genuine Realist - 11-04-2020
I believe the Presidential election is per se Covid related.
Just as a refresher, in the event of an Electoral College tie, improbable but within the realm of possibility, the election is thrown into the House of Representatives. This has happened before, in 1800, as recounted in a very popular musical.
States in the House vote as units. California's 53 representatives count the same as Wyoming's 1. You need 26 votes to win (obviously). I believe the Republicans hold the majority of State delegations, though the House is of course slightly Democratic. (This would be the House as presently constituted.)
So Trump likely wins in that scenario. The weeping and gnashing of teeth and renting of garments in that event should be a wonder to behold.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - oregontim - 11-04-2020
Useful reminder, thanks. I would have forgotten that crucial detail about the vote in the house. I read that as Trump wins in a tie. Damn.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Genuine Realist - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:50 AM)oregontim Wrote: Useful reminder, thanks. I would have forgotten that crucial detail about the vote in the house. I read that as Trump wins in a tie. Damn.A tie is extremely unlikely.
At this point, I am getting my wish. I wanted to see a Biden Presidency and a Republican Senate, to protect against real lunacy (e.g., court packing).
I don't think Biden has any better ideas about the pandemic than Trump. Anyway, executive action is local. But he will behave Presidentially, which is a major improvement.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - chrisk - 11-04-2020
Trump can easily keep attorneys busy for 2 months and he should have no problem getting a hearing at the Supreme Court.
In any case, the stock market loved the way the last 24 hours went. Tech and health care were big beneficiaries. United Health Care was up over 10%. Infrastructure and financials took the biggest hits.
Less COVID relief, infrastructure spending, and pressure on health care with divided government.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - BostonCard - 11-04-2020
Biden winning the second district in Nebraska is key. That means that if things hold (Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, all called by at least some media outlets for Biden, and Nevada, where he is leading, and the remaining ballots NC, GA, and PA where Trump is leading, aren't enough for Biden to overcome) and Biden will have 270 EVs.
The nightmare here would be a faithless elector.
BC
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - thatboy - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 03:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The nightmare here would be a faithless elector.
BC
I believe the courts recently ruled against faithless electors:
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/06/885168480/supreme-court-rules-state-faithless-elector-laws-constitutional
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - BostonCard - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 04:39 PM)thatboy Wrote:(11-04-2020, 03:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The nightmare here would be a faithless elector.
BC
I believe the courts recently ruled against faithless electors:
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/06/885168480/supreme-court-rules-state-faithless-elector-laws-constitutional
The court only ruled that states are allowed to sanction faithless electors. Only 33 states (plus DC) have rules that require electors to vote for their pledged candidate.
https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws
BC
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Genuine Realist - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 02:28 PM)chrisk Wrote: Trump can easily keep attorneys busy for 2 months and he should have no problem getting a hearing at the Supreme Court.I don't think Trump can keep lawyers busy for the next two days. The bases of all these suits are pretty shallow. His best (though not sufficient) arguments were in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, mooted because he is going to win them both.
In any case, the stock market loved the way the last 24 hours went. Tech and health care were big beneficiaries. United Health Care was up over 10%. Infrastructure and financials took the biggest hits.
Less COVID relief, infrastructure spending, and pressure on health care with divided government.
A near perfect election, for my two cents', marred only by the near miss of John James in Michigan. A Republican Senate to prevent the crazies in the House from going nuts, and a Biden moderate Left Presidency. Note that the Senate majority validates the ACB confirmation, since the GOP majority remains intact. (The nomination would remain before the Senate regardless of the Presidential election.
As to Covid, we can expect sane messages from now on. That's sufficient. People expecting magic bullets were expecting toomuch.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - BostonCard - 11-04-2020
Biden is actually looking pretty good to win PA. He's behind by 200,000 votes with ~700,000 ballots left to count, but they are mostly in Philadelphia; Biden has to capture 63% of the outstanding ballots, and he has won nearly 80% in Philly. Philadelphia may turn out similar to Michigan (a ~2% Biden win). You are correct that a NC win looks unlikely for Biden. There is a chance that Biden wins Georgia as well (Trump is up by <40,000 votes with about ~5% of the votes, mostly in Atlanta outstanding), which would make everything pretty moot.
BC
(11-04-2020, 05:44 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: A near perfect election, for my two cents', marred only by the near miss of John James in Michigan. A Republican Senate to prevent the crazies in the House from going nuts, and a Biden moderate Left Presidency. Note that the Senate majority validates the ACB confirmation, since the GOP majority remains intact. (The nomination would remain before the Senate regardless of the Presidential election.
As to Covid, we can expect sane messages from now on. That's sufficient. People expecting magic bullets were expecting toomuch.
The ACB nomination probably helped both Lindsey Graham, who helped shepherd the nomination through the judiciary committee (my complaints about process aside, the committee meetings went pretty smoothly), and Susan Collins in Maine, whose job might have been saved by voting against the nominee, thereby re-establishing her independent credentials in a state that Biden is carrying by 10 points.
BC
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - 82 Card - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 06:49 PM)BostonCard Wrote: ...and Susan Collins in Maine, whose job might have been saved by voting against the nominee, thereby re-establishing her independent credentials in a state that Biden is carrying by 10 points.
She consistently only votes independently when it doesn't matter. Most of her constituents probably know that. Doesn't matter.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - oregontim - 11-04-2020
Paraphrasing a quote today I got second hand: "If Biden wins, he will have to govern in Trump's America."
And we all live in Trump's America. Horrible truth.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Mick - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 08:49 PM)oregontim Wrote: Paraphrasing a quote today I got second hand: "If Biden wins, he will have to govern in Trump's America."
And we all live in Trump's America. Horrible truth.
Three little tiny bits of food for thought with that horrible truth:
- We just elected a doddering old man as President, and a VP who finished 16th in New Hampshire Dem primary and dropped out of the race on December 3. She didn't even make it to 2020.
- Yes, 72 million voted for Biden. 68.6 million voted for Trump, many of whom would have voted for Democrats in the past. I might suggest that instead of reviling the Deplorable Trump supporters, perhaps try to understand why they voted for a lying reality show huckster. And by that, I mean really understanding, not the bumper-sticker BS that gets spouted about Trump.
- While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - akiddoc - 11-05-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:30 PM)Mick Wrote:(11-04-2020, 08:49 PM)oregontim Wrote: Paraphrasing a quote today I got second hand: "If Biden wins, he will have to govern in Trump's America."
And we all live in Trump's America. Horrible truth.
Three little tiny bits of food for thought with that horrible truth:
- We just elected a doddering old man as President, and a VP who finished 16th in New Hampshire Dem primary and dropped out of the race on December 3. She didn't even make it to 2020.
- Yes, 72 million voted for Biden. 68.6 million voted for Trump, many of whom would have voted for Democrats in the past. I might suggest that instead of reviling the Deplorable Trump supporters, perhaps try to understand why they voted for a lying reality show huckster. And by that, I mean really understanding, not the bumper-sticker BS that gets spouted about Trump.
- While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.
I doubt Trump would have won in a landslide. Besides, Trump is really good at finding things to screw up. He likely would have found something else.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Leftcoast - 11-05-2020
Quote:"The weeping and gnashing of teeth and RENTING of garments in that event should be a wonder to behold." -GR
There's going to be surge in renting garments? Maybe that's where all these suits Republicans are filing come from.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Snorlax94 - 11-05-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:30 PM)Mick Wrote: - While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.I never understand the Trump worship and adulation. I get that some people have an incentive to want lower taxes or fewer regulations for their business, or put up with him — a thrice married, lying, mysoginist and 6 times bankrupt businessman — for judges who will enforce their religious views on the entire population, but those people view Trump as a means to an ends. I can never understand how people actually look at him and adore him. The only explanation I can think of is that Trump is very effective at psychological control and brainwashing. I read somewhere that he has studied hypnosis techniques and uses them in business and media.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - fullmetal - 11-05-2020
There's a pretty significant number of conservative Christian voters (across all ethnic backgrounds) who think that Trump's anti-abortion stance is sufficient for their votes (identity politics). (Are there more SCOTUS seats in play through 2024? Huh.)
That's where their analysis starts and stops. And their churches encourage this (despite tax-exempt status).
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - BostonCard - 11-05-2020
(11-05-2020, 03:41 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(11-04-2020, 11:30 PM)Mick Wrote: - While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.I never understand the Trump worship and adulation. I get that some people have an incentive to want lower taxes or fewer regulations for their business, or put up with him — a thrice married, lying, mysoginist and 6 times bankrupt businessman — for judges who will enforce their religious views on the entire population, but those people view Trump as a means to an ends. I can never understand how people actually look at him and adore him. The only explanation I can think of is that Trump is very effective at psychological control and brainwashing. I read somewhere that he has studied hypnosis techniques and uses them in business and media.
A lot of people in America who think that the two major parties have ignored them and that their government simply doesn't work for them have heard Trump speak their language and vow to give them a voice they have never had before. I've always been an admirer of Obama, but keep in mind that under his watch, Wall Street was bailed out while millions of Americans were foreclosed upon. Under his nose, tens of thousands of Americans were dying from opioid overdose seemingly without anyone doing anything about it. Now, I understand that these problems are complex, and I think Trump's response to COVID suggest he would have been no better at handling the opioid epidemic (with overdose deaths flat since his innauguration, which, to be fair, is better than the previous trend).
Secondly, to us (mostly well educated, white collar workers), the economy really didn't change all that much when Trump became president. The trend that started in the aftermath of the financial crisis more or less continued linearly. For people at the lower end of the income spectrum, making close to minimum wage, there actually was a step-change starting in around 2018. At that point, the labor market finally became tight, and employers were forced to start increasing wages. I don't think you can attribute that to Trump, but its not like the Obama administration (somewhat forced by the Republican congress) and the fed at the time, committed some own goals on the economy. Trump was right (policy-wise) to hound the fed to keep interest rates low. Trump was right to push fiscal stimulus (even though I disagree with how he did it).
All that being said, I think progressives need to be better at listening to what the people they purport to represent want, rather than presuming to know better, or, at the very least, explain why their policy preferences are better for average Americans instead of presuming that this is somehow self-evident and sneering at them for not somehow managing to understand by magic.
I'll give two examples, both related to Latino voters, who seem to have shifted significantly towards Trump. The aims of the BLM movement are noble, and many of their policy goals will benefit anyone, including Latino voters, who encounters the police. But how do you think imagery of Che Guevara, who, ideology aside, was objectively a murderous despot, particularly to Cuban emigres in South Florida, plays? Secondly, something like 90% of people of Latino descent have never heard of the term "Latinx", don't know how to pronounce it, feel it wipes out their heritage, and sure as hell don't want to be told who they are by a liberal elite. Now, I get that gendered language is problematic for some people, but you can't impose a fix from above. In some ways, those are trivial examples. But they are very representative of the attitudes of progressives to the people they believe should naturally support them.
I would suggest more listening and less sneering.
BC
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Mick - 11-05-2020
(11-05-2020, 03:41 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(11-04-2020, 11:30 PM)Mick Wrote: - While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.I never understand the Trump worship and adulation. I get that some people have an incentive to want lower taxes or fewer regulations for their business, or put up with him — a thrice married, lying, mysoginist and 6 times bankrupt businessman — for judges who will enforce their religious views on the entire population, but those people view Trump as a means to an ends. I can never understand how people actually look at him and adore him. The only explanation I can think of is that Trump is very effective at psychological control and brainwashing. I read somewhere that he has studied hypnosis techniques and uses them in business and media.
Very few adore or worship him. Most despise him personally. Would you like an NYC-based real estate billionaire, under any circumstances? I wouldn't. And it isn't brainwashing or mind control, that's nonsensical. My sense is that he has just three skills, but they're three pretty important skills:
1) An overwhelming focus on the economy. And it isn't just the Dow, and he never really communicated the fact that a rising Dow is good for all Americans based upon the pullthrough. If your company is doing well, they keep people employed, make capital investments, buy more inventory, use more services, etc. Plenty of people on the left framed it as a rich person thing, when in point of fact it's an everyone thing. But pre-pandemic, his numbers were ridiculously good, as in best-in-history good for unemployment across all subcategories; women, African Americans, Latinx, etc. And the entrepreneurial starts were similarly off the charts. So...yes, there are plenty of single-issue voters, but it isn't abortion or judges, it's the economy, stupid...as Bill Clinton so adroitly understood.
2) More importantly, he understands where and how the Left in general and the Democrats in particular abandoned their bases. The Dems do what they've always done and what they should do: focus on the worst-off decile in the country and support the next decile. That leaves deciles 6, 7 and 8 essentially abandoned. And it doesn't help when Dems crow that they're going to put a whole lot of (fill in the blank blue collar jobs) out of work, or that they're going to eliminate fracking, or that they want to fund health care for 1/4th of the country for free.
3) Finally, as GR points out, the great divide in this country isn't by race or gender or religion or sexual preference. It's class. And the Elites across the board refuse to frame it as such. Why? Because they fall into the upper class and are therefore exempt from the coveted victim status. That's the Republican Elite (who despise Trump, yet want and need blue collar voters), the Democrat Elite, the Media Elite, the Establishment Elite, the Rich Elite, the Medical Elite...all the Elites. Big Media wants to support the little guy and shade the rich guy--admirable. But they themselves are Elite and have a collective tin ear with respect to much of the plights across America. They don't care. So no one gives a sxxt when another 751,000 are thrown out of work -- that's 60 million+ since March if you're counting. Trump, for his myriad warts and foibles understands the average person in ways that the Elites don't understand.
Can't wait to have Biden roll back the tax cuts and take away $2,000 on average from American families. Should be great fun.
(11-05-2020, 08:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(11-05-2020, 03:41 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(11-04-2020, 11:30 PM)Mick Wrote: - While I wouldn't wish a pandemic on anyone -- obviously -- keep in mind that without a once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump likely wins in a landslide.I never understand the Trump worship and adulation. I get that some people have an incentive to want lower taxes or fewer regulations for their business, or put up with him — a thrice married, lying, mysoginist and 6 times bankrupt businessman — for judges who will enforce their religious views on the entire population, but those people view Trump as a means to an ends. I can never understand how people actually look at him and adore him. The only explanation I can think of is that Trump is very effective at psychological control and brainwashing. I read somewhere that he has studied hypnosis techniques and uses them in business and media.
A lot of people in America who think that the two major parties have ignored them and that their government simply doesn't work for them have heard Trump speak their language and vow to give them a voice they have never had before. I've always been an admirer of Obama, but keep in mind that under his watch, Wall Street was bailed out while millions of Americans were foreclosed upon. Under his nose, tens of thousands of Americans were dying from opioid overdose seemingly without anyone doing anything about it. Now, I understand that these problems are complex, and I think Trump's response to COVID suggest he would have been no better at handling the opioid epidemic (with overdose deaths flat since his inauguration, which, to be fair, is better than the previous trend).
Secondly, to us (mostly well educated, white collar workers), the economy really didn't change all that much when Trump became president. The trend that started in the aftermath of the financial crisis more or less continued linearly. For people at the lower end of the income spectrum, making close to minimum wage, there actually was a step-change starting in around 2018. At that point, the labor market finally became tight, and employers were forced to start increasing wages. I don't think you can attribute that to Trump, but its not like the Obama administration (somewhat forced by the Republican congress) and the fed at the time, committed some own goals on the economy. Trump was right (policy-wise) to hound the fed to keep interest rates low. Trump was right to push fiscal stimulus (even though I disagree with how he did it).
All that being said, I think progressives need to be better at listening to what the people they purport to represent want, rather than presuming to know better, or, at the very least, explain why their policy preferences are better for average Americans instead of presuming that this is somehow self-evident and sneering at them for not somehow managing to understand by magic.
I'll give two examples, both related to Latino voters... support them.
I would suggest more listening and less sneering.
BC
+1. Perfectly said.
(11-05-2020, 12:06 AM)akiddoc Wrote: I doubt Trump would have won in a landslide. Besides, Trump is really good at finding things to screw up. He likely would have found something else.
Why? He has nearly 69 million votes, very close to Biden's. And for the last six months, the pandemic has blown through this country, all on his watch, he's been blamed for all of it, and the Media Elite, Medical Elite and Left Elite -- and a fair portion of the Right Elite -- has blamed him personally and exclusively for it. They've hammered on it from Day One, and correctly saw it as a wedge against Trump.
Personally, if the economy had continued roaring, I think Trump would have won by 5 mm to 10 mm votes and would have had 400+ electoral votes. Not California, not New York, not Massachusetts; not those bastions of elitism -- but most of the other states.
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - BostonCard - 11-05-2020
My guess is that Trump has a high-floor but low-ceilin. If you look at his approval ratings, they are basically identical now (-8.4 net approve - disapprove) as they were in January (-10.3). In fact, Trump's approval ratings are basically flat going all the way back to April 2018, save for a small, temporary bump in disapproval in Jan 2019 (the government shutdown), a small temporary jump in approval in April (rally around the flag) and drop in approval over the summer (COVID second wave), of which he has recovered.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
BC
RE: It Ain't Over Til It's Over - Farm93 - 11-05-2020
Trump was trailing in the polls by large single digit margins to Biden BEFORE the Democratic primaries began back in late 2019. That was part of the reason a lot of Democrats voted for the Biden in the first place. They believed he was best positioned to bring back the Blue Wall, even if he didn't excite key parts of the base (East Coast college educated types, African Americans, West Coast Dems, etc.) The polls proved a bit inaccurate, but they were in the same range for Joe vs Trump back in November 2019-January 2020. Which Biden referenced consistently in December and January.
The actual election is close enough that one could imagine that Trump would have won if COVID was not a thing, but even before COVID he was trailing in the polls by 4-5 points. At election he was trailing in polls by 7-9 points. He will lose the popular vote in 2020 by 3 points. So some quick math and assumptions imply a very close popular vote and likely an electoral college win. To project a 5mm to 10mm Trump win would have meant landslide like territory, and that wasn't going to happen with CA, MA, and NY giving any Democrat 5+ million. They were set to do that as we entered 2020 before COVID was a thing.
It would be a mistake for Republicans to think Trump was set if only COVID didn't happen. Just as it would have been a mistake for Democrats to assume that Trump's mismanagement of COVID would seal the deal for Biden.