The purple state of California - Printable Version
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The purple state of California - M T - 11-17-2020
Wow, was I surprised when I got an alert today (like an Amber alert) that Santa Clara County was moved into the Purple Tier. Probably not as surprised as others, because I knew we were into the purple numbers, but I knew the rules wouldn't move us to Purple until next week.
Someone (may be a group) in control at the state level took command and did what I believe is the right thing. Practically the whole state is purple. The state accelerated the reactivity of the rules to the current situation in multiple ways. No waiting 2 weeks for your numbers to change your rate; a 7 day lag on the numbers dropped to 4; a delay of most of a week to respond to the new tier dropped to one day.
Last week, there were 12 purple counties. This week there are 39 (of 56).
Quote:[*]In light of the recent, unprecedented surge in rate of increase of cases, notwithstanding the Blueprint framework outlined below, the following changes are effective until further notice:[*]
- Tier assignments may occur any day of the week and may occur more than once a week when CDPH determines that the most recent reliable data indicate that immediate action is needed to address COVID-19 transmission in a county.
- Counties may be moved back more than one tier if CDPH determines that the data support the more intensive intervention. Key considerations will include the rate of increase in new cases and/or test positivity, more recent data as noted below, public health capacity, and other epidemiological factors.
- The most recent reliable data will be used to complete the assessment.
- In light of the extreme circumstances requiring immediate action, counties will be required to implement any sector changes the day following the tier announcement.
Rt is around 1.4-1.5 in the Bay Area. The graphs show the the growth of Rt has slowed (and maybe peaked in some counties).
At Rt=1.4, that's a growth of 8x in one month, (theoretically) 64x in 2 months.
At that rate, in a month, SCC would be seeing 1600-2000 cases daily, about 0.1% of the population getting sick daily.
In 2 months, that would be 0.8% of the population getting sick each day -- Likely impossible as the infectable population would be getting smaller.
Rt needs to drop, and as rapidly as we can. I applaud whoever got the fire lit under the CPHD.
I wish it had happened a week or more earlier.
I hope to hear it was by a unanimous acclamation of the county public health directors. And if it were the Governor, then bully for him.
California is in the middle of all the states, being 23rd in Rt. I wouldn't describe that as average, but you could say it is pretty mean.