Double dip - Printable Version

Double dip - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: Double dip (/thread-20950.html)

Double dip - BostonCard - 11-23-2020

With cases rising, I think it is only a matter of time before we start seeing the effect on the economic data.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1330855722175913988?s=20[/tweet]

Already, first time claims for unemployment have started rising, and here we have evidence of impact on other measures of employment.

Oh, by the way, additional unemployment programs expire on Dec. 26. Merry Christmas.

BC

RE: Double dip - Genuine Realist - 11-23-2020

(11-23-2020, 10:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote: With cases rising, I think it is only a matter of time before we start seeing the effect on the economic data.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1330855722175913988?s=20[/tweet]

Already, first time claims for unemployment have started rising, and here we have evidence of impact on other measures of employment.

Oh, by the way, additional unemployment programs expire on Dec. 26. Merry Christmas.

BC

Has to be , though the f resilience and resourcefulness of all sorts of people in coping with the changed circumstances.

RE: Double dip - chrisk - 11-23-2020

Dow just spiked up on expectation that Janet Yellen will be nominated for Secretary of the Treasury. She would be the first woman in the job and would not carry the political baggage of other candidates.

She will definitely be an advocate for stimulus.

RE: Double dip - BostonCard - 11-23-2020

(11-23-2020, 12:26 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Has to be , though the f resilience and resourcefulness of all sorts of people in coping with the changed circumstances.

I think this is a good point. The employment recovery was initially faster than most people expected, and the CARES act did more to tide people over than expected. So the employment response may well surprise, and it is important to be able to update ones expectations as the data rolls in. However, my naive expectation is that the recovery will stall, if not head into reverse over the next few months.

BC

RE: Double dip - JustAnotherFan - 11-23-2020

Speaking of job growth, I'm curious about new businesses (and jobs) that are being created in response to the pandemic. Crises are often fertile ground for fabulous companies and even industries. Not counting growth in the gig economy, delivery, and online retail, and people selling PPE, what businesses or new business models have people seen pop up all of a sudden in response to the current crisis?

RE: Double dip - fanofourforebears - 11-23-2020

(11-23-2020, 10:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote: With cases rising, I think it is only a matter of time before we start seeing the effect on the economic data.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1330855722175913988?s=20[/tweet]

Already, first time claims for unemployment have started rising, and here we have evidence of impact on other measures of employment.

Oh, by the way, additional unemployment programs expire on Dec. 26. Merry Christmas.

BC

It is not looking good for the US or world economy. As long as we have Public health running things that so impact the economy, apart from the member companies of the trusted this or that alliance and the world economic forum, the economy and especially small businesses are going to suffer and not do well at all.

RE: Double dip - BostonCard - 11-23-2020

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2020089pap.pdf

Business closures based on real-time data seems to show that businesses are holding up ok (maybe).

Quote:Evidence is somewhat mixed, however, and exiting businesses do not appear to represent a large share of U.S. employment.

RE: Double dip - Mick - 11-24-2020

(11-23-2020, 01:13 PM)chrisk Wrote: Dow just spiked up on expectation that Janet Yellen will be nominated for Secretary of the Treasury. She would be the first woman in the job and would not carry the political baggage of other candidates.

She will definitely be an advocate for stimulus.

Best possible Fed news, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think she'd even know how to turn the spigot off...

Separately, the Mnuchin/Powell split really concerns me. I realize Mnuchin will be out in two months, but a lot of damage can be done in two months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/mnuchin-powell-split-shows-rare-discord-as-economy-struggles

RE: Double dip - BostonCard - 11-24-2020

(11-24-2020, 03:32 PM)Mick Wrote:
(11-23-2020, 01:13 PM)chrisk Wrote: Dow just spiked up on expectation that Janet Yellen will be nominated for Secretary of the Treasury. She would be the first woman in the job and would not carry the political baggage of other candidates.

She will definitely be an advocate for stimulus.

Best possible Fed news, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think she'd even know how to turn the spigot off...

Separately, the Mnuchin/Powell split really concerns me. I realize Mnuchin will be out in two months, but a lot of damage can be done in two months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/mnuchin-powell-split-shows-rare-discord-as-economy-struggles

And if you expect that Mnuchin's moves can just be reversed as soon as Biden takes over with Yellen as his teasury secretary...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1331329160044810241?s=20[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SenToomey/status/1331223764210683906?s=20[/tweet]

I'm guessing we will hear the word "austerity" a lot in the next four years.

BC

RE: Double dip - dabigv13 - 11-24-2020

No we won't, because the R's know that's a dirty word. We will hear a lot about the deficit instead. The D's will rightly point out their hypocrisy after not giving two shits about the deficit during the Trump era, but Mitch won't care.

RE: Double dip - Maple Leaf - 11-24-2020

(11-24-2020, 04:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: No we won't, because the R's know that's a dirty word. We will hear a lot about the deficit instead. The D's will rightly point out their hypocrisy after not giving two shits about the deficit during the Trump era, but Mitch won't care.

.....it has been a given for sometime, when the R's are in control they don't even know what the word deficits mean, nor tax cuts for the little guy. May be this due since the R's are too busy looking for where they put their health care plan to care about the deficits.

RE: Double dip - Mick - 11-24-2020

(11-24-2020, 05:36 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 04:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: No we won't, because the R's know that's a dirty word. We will hear a lot about the deficit instead. The D's will rightly point out their hypocrisy after not giving two shits about the deficit during the Trump era, but Mitch won't care.

.....it has been a given for sometime, when the R's are in control they don't even know what the word deficits mean, nor tax cuts for the little guy. May be this due since the R's are too busy looking for where they put their health care plan to care about the deficits.

Yup. I've been a registered Independent since 2001, when BushII turned a nice surplus into a budget deficit.

RE: Double dip - BostonCard - 11-24-2020

[tweet]https://twitter.com/IrvingSwisher/status/1331326425706733576?s=20[/tweet]

Mnuchian's transfer to the general fund may have been in violation of the CARES act.

BC

RE: Double dip - BostonCard - 11-24-2020

Oh, but at least the Dow broke 30,000.

Has there ever been a greater disconnect between the stock market and the economy at large?

BC

RE: Double dip - Mick - 11-27-2020

(11-24-2020, 11:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Oh, but at least the Dow broke 30,000.

Has there ever been a greater disconnect between the stock market and the economy at large?

BC

Derivatives market agrees with you, and is showing a different expectation:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-and-derivatives-are-sending-different-signals-11606473003