November unemployment - Printable Version
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November unemployment - BostonCard - 12-04-2020
The unemployment rate drops from 6.9 to 6.7, and there were 245,000 new jobs, which was dramatically less than expected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/04/november-2020-jobs-report-unemployment/
BC
RE: November unemployment - Mick - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 04:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The unemployment rate drops from 6.9 to 6.7, and there were 245,000 new jobs, which was dramatically less than expected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/04/november-2020-jobs-report-unemployment/
BC
Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
RE: November unemployment - teejers1 - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-04-2020, 04:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The unemployment rate drops from 6.9 to 6.7, and there were 245,000 new jobs, which was dramatically less than expected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/04/november-2020-jobs-report-unemployment/
BC
Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2019: 1,573,485
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2020: 20,163,477
Is that really right, Mick?
If so, WOW! Are as Belushi might say: "Holy . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtSPFXj_eZM
RE: November unemployment - Mick - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 05:01 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(12-04-2020, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-04-2020, 04:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The unemployment rate drops from 6.9 to 6.7, and there were 245,000 new jobs, which was dramatically less than expected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/04/november-2020-jobs-report-unemployment/
BC
Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2019: 1,573,485
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2020: 20,163,477
Is that really right, Mick?
If so, WOW! Are as Belushi might say: "Holy . . .
Yup that's right. And my comment in red above was misleading, comparing a week's worth of initial unemployment claims with a month's worth of new jobs (which, if you read the article, was half of what they'd expected.
The more accurate comparison would be about 3,000,000 initial unemployment claims against 245,000 new jobs in the month of November. And many of the original stimulus funds will be completely closed as of 12/31. The nationwide eviction moratorium will also be over, same with the college loan repayment relief. Which takes your breath away. Well, my breath anyway. How does 5,000,000 new homeless sound?
RE: November unemployment - OutsiderFan - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 06:10 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-04-2020, 05:01 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(12-04-2020, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote:(12-04-2020, 04:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The unemployment rate drops from 6.9 to 6.7, and there were 245,000 new jobs, which was dramatically less than expected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/04/november-2020-jobs-report-unemployment/
BC
Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2019: 1,573,485
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14, 2020: 20,163,477
Is that really right, Mick?
If so, WOW! Are as Belushi might say: "Holy . . .
Yup that's right. And my comment in red above was misleading, comparing a week's worth of initial unemployment claims with a month's worth of new jobs (which, if you read the article, was half of what they'd expected.
The more accurate comparison would be about 3,000,000 initial unemployment claims against 245,000 new jobs in the month of November. And many of the original stimulus funds will be completely closed as of 12/31. The nationwide eviction moratorium will also be over, same with the college loan repayment relief. Which takes your breath away. Well, my breath anyway. How does 5,000,000 new homeless sound?
"Awesome!"
RE: November unemployment - BostonCard - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote: Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
That is an apples-to-oranges comparison. To be clear, 712,000 is the initial unemployment claims, while the jobs report lists net new jobs. Remember, while people go onto unemployment, others go off unemployment.
None of that is to trivialize the economic situation, because we are still a lot behind where we were in February. Total non-farm payroll at the peak in February was 152.46 million. By April, it had fallen to 130.30 million, a level that was last seen a few months after the trough of the the Great Recession. By the November employment report, it had come back to 142.63 million, so we have gained back about 12 million of the 22 million that were lost at the beginning of the pandemic, which would put us roughly at October, 2015 in terms of employment. But, and this is important, we still have another 10 million to go before we are back to the employment levels we saw in January.
As a basis for comparison, from peak to trough in the Great Recession, we lost about 9.6 million jobs, so right now, even with the jobs that have been recovered, we are in a worse net position than we were during the bottom of the Great Recession.
BC
RE: November unemployment - Farm93 - 12-04-2020
(12-04-2020, 06:59 PM)BostonCard Wrote:BC -(12-04-2020, 04:44 PM)Mick Wrote: Initial unemployment claims was 712,000. So only about 3x the new jobs.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 14 was 20,163,477, a decrease of 349,633 from the previous week. There were 1,573,485 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.
That is an apples-to-oranges comparison. To be clear, 712,000 is the initial unemployment claims, while the jobs report lists net new jobs. Remember, while people go onto unemployment, others go off unemployment.
None of that is to trivialize the economic situation, because we are still a lot behind where we were in February. Total non-farm payroll at the peak in February was 152.46 million. By April, it had fallen to 130.30 million, a level that was last seen a few months after the trough of the the Great Recession. By the November employment report, it had come back to 142.63 million, so we have gained back about 12 million of the 22 million that were lost at the beginning of the pandemic, which would put us roughly at October, 2015 in terms of employment. But, and this is important, we still have another 10 million to go before we are back to the employment levels we saw in January.
As a basis for comparison, from peak to trough in the Great Recession, we lost about 9.6 million jobs, so right now, even with the jobs that have been recovered, we are in a worse net position than we were during the bottom of the Great Recession.
BC
And those numbers are all before the latest SiP efforts that are just about to hit CA and a few other big states.
Props to the service sector owners for trying to spread hours across all of their employees. However that has meant a lot of service sector employees are underemployed, working far fewer hours than they worked in any comparable pre-pandemic pay period.
It will be a very tough 3-4 months presumably with unemployment and underemployment moving up in the service sectors for a few months. The economy could really be vibrant in late 2021 as those households that have maintained their earning power through the pandemic but were unable to spend should be eager and able to spend money. The rush to normal activities could even become a touch inflationary in some sectors, but that's a worry for a different time.
RE: November unemployment - Mick - 12-05-2020
And there are 4 million adults not in the labor force now (160.467 mms.) that were in the labor force a year ago (164.347 mms.).
U-3 unemployment rate is down to 6.7%. U-6 unemployment rate (Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) is 12.0%.
42 page governmental employment release:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
RE: November unemployment - Mick - 12-07-2020
(12-05-2020, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: And there are 4 million adults not in the labor force now (160.467 mms.) that were in the labor force a year ago (164.347 mms.).
U-3 unemployment rate is down to 6.7%. U-6 unemployment rate (Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) is 12.0%.
42 page governmental employment release:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
And not that anyone really cares about it, but 69.6 million people have been given a pink slip of one kind or another since March. That's 43% of the work force.
RE: November unemployment - JustAnotherFan - 12-07-2020
(12-07-2020, 10:01 AM)Mick Wrote:(12-05-2020, 09:41 AM)Mick Wrote: And there are 4 million adults not in the labor force now (160.467 mms.) that were in the labor force a year ago (164.347 mms.).
U-3 unemployment rate is down to 6.7%. U-6 unemployment rate (Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) is 12.0%.
42 page governmental employment release:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
And not that anyone really cares about it, but 69.6 million people have been given a pink slip of one kind or another since March. That's 43% of the work force.
"not that anyone really cares ..."
What are you talking about?