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“If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Printable Version

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“If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - lex24 - 12-09-2020

Those words, from the Berkeley Health Director (or whatever her title is) speak volumes.  Anyone with an ounce of compassion for what people are going through mentally doesn’t make that statement.  And for someone allegedly concerned about public health to make it says much about the mindset

We are allowing ourselves to be dictated to by bureaucrats. And boy are they feeling their oats. Read what Scott Morrow had to say in the SM County Site. I think he gets it. And even if you don’t agree, he lays out specific reasons behind his decision. Something I haven’t seen the others do. They speak in generalities only.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - 2006alum - 12-09-2020

I agree that Morrow's post was refreshing both in its nuance and his candor that there's still a lot we don't know. But I'm not sure I even understand the comment you quoted and what that means. What is a social bubble? Can you provide a link?

And more generally, I do worry about emergency medical personnel - we all go about our daily lives with the presumed fallback of excellent and immediate medical care, so I do think we should be making policy choices in a pandemic with the idea that maxing out their capacity so that we can play youth sports (or fill-in-the-blank non-necessary activity) is not only unfair, but short sided. That was the one part or Morrow's calculus I thought was a little under-thought through.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - OutsiderFan - 12-09-2020

Unlike most people, I watched the Zoom press conference and saw the Berkeley health director make the comment that has lex so bent out of shape.

It offends me when people claim these protectors of our health are bureaucrats with agendas to shut our lives down, and this is "murica and we do what we want, damnit!

If you watch and listen to these people talk, you can see how difficult it is for them to be making the calls they are making. I actually thought the woman from Berkeley lex has concluded is Mary Antoinette, struck the greatest balance between shutting things down and allowing some gatherings to continue when she specifically said Cal's athletics program is exempt from the shutdown orders because they have presented and are executing strict protocols to keep athletes safe and from spreading virus in community. She's not being draconian, but how many other Berkeley operations have the resources and ability to implement safety precautions like UCB's Athletics department? There is an inherent unfairness here, but life isn't fair.

Her comment about your bubble being popped was an effort to demonstrate just how serious a situation it is and what everyone must do to protect not only themselves and their families, but also other people, health care workers, and the system itself.  The day Dr. Cody issued the no sports directive, SCC had 47 hospital admissions. On Sunday night, the even tighter restrictions were made, closing outdoor dining and limiting retail occupancy. Yesterday there were 75 new hospitalizations in SCC. The 7-day rolling avg. new reported infections is over 500.  

The only tool we have that absolutely stops spread is distancing, not getting together with anyone period. Spread absolutely must stop, or at least dramatically slow or we will not be able to handle the damage.  These public health guardians are at their wit's end.  And someone is going to get all worked up that one would dare say your bubble has popped in a desperate plea to convince people to isolate form others. Amazing. A neighbor's friend's husband died of Covid last week. Yesterday I learned a former neighbor's daughter's husband -and former S.F Giants drafted Pitcher - is very sick with Covid. Michigan's football team reports 45 players have Covid this week.

Can someone post a link to what this Morrow person said?


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Goose - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 09:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Can someone post a link to what this Morrow person said?

Already did in "Its bad out there", but here it is.
https://www.smchealth.org/health-officer-updates/december-7-2020-health-officer-statement


lex24 - lex24 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 09:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Unlike most people, I watched the Zoom press conference and saw the Berkeley health director make the comment that has lex so bent out of shape.

It offends me when people claim these protectors of our health are bureaucrats with agendas to shut our lives down, and this is "murica and we do what we want, damnit!

If you watch and listen to these people talk, you can see how difficult it is for them to be making the calls they are making. I actually thought the woman from Berkeley lex has concluded is Mary Antoinette, struck the greatest balance between shutting things down and allowing some gatherings to continue when she specifically said Cal's athletics program is exempt from the shutdown orders because they have presented and are executing strict protocols to keep athletes safe and from spreading virus in community. She's not being draconian, but how many other Berkeley operations have the resources and ability to implement safety precautions like UCB's Athletics department? There is an inherent unfairness here, but life isn't fair.

Her comment about your bubble being popped was an effort to demonstrate just how serious a situation it is and what everyone must do to protect not only themselves and their families, but also other people, health care workers, and the system itself.  The day Dr. Cody issued the no sports directive, SCC had 47 hospital admissions. On Sunday night, the even tighter restrictions were made, closing outdoor dining and limiting retail occupancy. Yesterday there were 75 new hospitalizations in SCC. The 7-day rolling avg. new reported infections is over 500.  

The only tool we have that absolutely stops spread is distancing, not getting together with anyone period. Spread absolutely must stop, or at least dramatically slow or we will not be able to handle the damage.  These public health guardians are at their wit's end.  And someone is going to get all worked up that one would dare say your bubble has popped in a desperate plea to convince people to isolate form others. Amazing. A neighbor's friend's husband died of Covid last week. Yesterday I learned a former neighbor's daughter's husband -and former S.F Giants drafted Pitcher - is very sick with Covid. Michigan's football team reports 45 players have Covid this week.

Can someone post a link to what this Morrow person said?

I watched it also OF.  And I didn’t bend it out of shape.  I admit to some confirmation bias on my part. I want these coming from elected officials. And I believed then and now that Newsom’s order and it’s trigger should apply state wide. BTW, will you admit to confirmation bias on your part? 


This  “Morrow person” holds the same position in San Mateo County as Cody and the others do- he’s their health director. Go to San Mateo County’s Health Dept or Google him and you will get his statement. As I said OF, you and I didn’t view that conference the same. I admit to some confirmation bias on my part. I want these coming from elected officials. Will you admit to confirmation bias on your part. 

As for me, I am “offended” when I’m essentially told that I’m to agree hook, line and sinker with what they say.   Trust me I’m every bit as compassionate on this as you are.    And I resent the implication in your response that because I find the comment to be showing a lack of compassion for another aspect of this – mental health – that you find that to be “amazing”.

  Also quite honestly I’m sick and tired of everything that’s being said getting justified as a way of showing us how “serious this is”. We know that. And the relatively few people in the bay area that don’t are never going to change their position no matter what is done.

(12-09-2020, 04:30 AM)2006alum Wrote:  I agree that Morrow's post was refreshing both in its nuance and his candor that there's still a lot we don't know. But I'm not sure I even understand the comment you quoted and what that means. What is a social bubble? Can you provide a link?

And more generally, I do worry about emergency medical personnel - we all go about our daily lives with the presumed fallback of excellent and immediate medical care, so I do think we should be making policy choices in a pandemic with the idea that maxing out their capacity so that we can play youth sports (or fill-in-the-blank non-necessary activity) is not only unfair, but short sided. That was the one part or Morrow's calculus I thought was a little under-thought through.

“Social Bubble”  came out of some earlier orders from I believe bothContra Costa. and Alameda county. What essentially said is you could gather with a group of I believe it was up to 10 maybe 12 people but they essentially had to be the same people that was to be considered your “social bubble. That came out when they loosened up the original sip restrictions. So when she said your social bubbles being popped basically what she was indicating is you can’t see your friends anymore.   A very callous statement in my opinion.

(12-09-2020, 09:49 AM)lex24 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 09:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Unlike most people, I watched the Zoom press conference and saw the Berkeley health director make the comment that has lex so bent out of shape.

It offends me when people claim these protectors of our health are bureaucrats with agendas to shut our lives down, and this is "murica and we do what we want, damnit!

If you watch and listen to these people talk, you can see how difficult it is for them to be making the calls they are making. I actually thought the woman from Berkeley lex has concluded is Mary Antoinette, struck the greatest balance between shutting things down and allowing some gatherings to continue when she specifically said Cal's athletics program is exempt from the shutdown orders because they have presented and are executing strict protocols to keep athletes safe and from spreading virus in community. She's not being draconian, but how many other Berkeley operations have the resources and ability to implement safety precautions like UCB's Athletics department? There is an inherent unfairness here, but life isn't fair.

Her comment about your bubble being popped was an effort to demonstrate just how serious a situation it is and what everyone must do to protect not only themselves and their families, but also other people, health care workers, and the system itself.  The day Dr. Cody issued the no sports directive, SCC had 47 hospital admissions. On Sunday night, the even tighter restrictions were made, closing outdoor dining and limiting retail occupancy. Yesterday there were 75 new hospitalizations in SCC. The 7-day rolling avg. new reported infections is over 500.  

The only tool we have that absolutely stops spread is distancing, not getting together with anyone period. Spread absolutely must stop, or at least dramatically slow or we will not be able to handle the damage.  These public health guardians are at their wit's end.  And someone is going to get all worked up that one would dare say your bubble has popped in a desperate plea to convince people to isolate form others. Amazing. A neighbor's friend's husband died of Covid last week. Yesterday I learned a former neighbor's daughter's husband -and former S.F Giants drafted Pitcher - is very sick with Covid. Michigan's football team reports 45 players have Covid this week.

Can someone post a link to what this Morrow person said?

I watched it also OF.  And I didn’t bend it out of shape.  I admit to some confirmation bias on my part. I want these coming from elected officials. And I believed then and now that Newsom’s order and it’s trigger should apply state wide. BTW, will you admit to confirmation bias on your part? 


This  “Morrow person” holds the same position in San Mateo County as Cody and the others do- he’s their health director. Go to San Mateo County’s Health Dept or Google him and you will get his statement. As I said OF, you and I didn’t view that conference the same. I admit to some confirmation bias on my part. I want these coming from elected officials. Will you admit to confirmation bias on your part. 

As for me, I am “offended” when I’m essentially told that I’m to agree hook, line and sinker with what they say.   Trust me I’m every bit as compassionate on this as you are.    And I resent the implication in your response that because I find the comment to be showing a lack of compassion for another aspect of this – mental health – that you find that to be “amazing”.

  Also quite honestly I’m sick and tired of everything that’s being said getting justified as a way of showing us how “serious this is”. We know that. And the relatively few people in the bay area that don’t are never going to change their position no matter what is done.

(12-09-2020, 04:30 AM)2006alum Wrote:  I agree that Morrow's post was refreshing both in its nuance and his candor that there's still a lot we don't know. But I'm not sure I even understand the comment you quoted and what that means. What is a social bubble? Can you provide a link?

And more generally, I do worry about emergency medical personnel - we all go about our daily lives with the presumed fallback of excellent and immediate medical care, so I do think we should be making policy choices in a pandemic with the idea that maxing out their capacity so that we can play youth sports (or fill-in-the-blank non-necessary activity) is not only unfair, but short sided. That was the one part or Morrow's calculus I thought was a little under-thought through.

“Social Bubble”  came out of some earlier orders from I believe both Contra  Costa. and Alameda county. What they essentially said is you could gather with a group of up 12 people (outside generally) but they had to be the same people. That  was to be considered your “social bubble. That came out when they loosened up the original sip restrictions. So when she said your social bubble is being popped basically what she was indicating is you can’t see your friends anymore.   A very callous statement in my opinion.



RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - dabigv13 - 12-09-2020

Hey lex, you shouldn't go see your friends because we're in an uncontrolled pandemic. Just because you don't want to hear it doesn't mean it's not good advice.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Genuine Realist - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Hey lex, you shouldn't go see your friends because we're in an uncontrolled pandemic. Just because you don't want to hear it doesn't mean it's not good advice.
It might be absolutely terrible advice, depending on your circumstances.

And even in times of uncontrolled pandemic, other social values remain important. 

Above all, the science seems to vary from county to county. Not surprisingly, the regimen suggested will be influenced by the other values of the speaker. How could it be otherwise?

A health official who speaks of 'social bubbles being popped' and apparently reveling in that, is reflecting other beliefs of hers. To think this is a neutral, detached observation, is quite naive.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - teejers1 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 09:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The day Dr. Cody issued the no sports directive, SCC had 47 hospital admissions. On Sunday night, the even tighter restrictions were made, closing outdoor dining and limiting retail occupancy. Yesterday there were 75 new hospitalizations in SCC. The 7-day rolling avg. new reported infections is over 500.  

The SCC numbers are going up and it's not good.  Hospitalizations at 300 hundo, which is all-time high.

I still wonder what is driving this and where?

The LTCF dashboard's graph has not been updated since November 28th (and November was bad).  The text on "Last 14 days," however, does provide some indication on outbreaks there.  Specifically, in the last 14 days, there has been, at minimum 14 staff cases. Because they report <11 and not an exact number, it's possible that number is as high as 140, though I don't think anyone believes that. 14 - 28 strikes me as a reasonable estimate.

In addition to that figure, you've also had resident infections at LTCFs.  That figure is 24, minimum (with a theoretically possible high of 124, given <11 reporting for 10 of the 11 infected facilities, with the 11th reporting 14(!) positive tests).  Again, I suspect the actual number is a lot closer to 24 than 124.

So in last 14 days, a minimum 38 folks affiliated with LTCFs have contracted the virus - with an unknown total - your guesstimate is as good as mine (55-60?).  It's a decent supposition that a higher percent of LTCF patients, anyway, end up in hospitals than the general population.  But even if you say 50 of the hospitalizations are attributable to LTCFs, you still have 250 non-LTCF patients.  That is a problem in "the general population," who are not acting responsibly enough.

It would be nice to have a little more transparency on LTCF numbers, for sure.  But we have what we have.

BTW, the point made by SMC Health Administrator that rings the most truthful is that it doesn't matter what formal regulations are, people in their everyday lives need to be smart about distancing and masks for this thing to be sufficiently contained.  That's it.


lex24 - lex24 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Hey lex, you shouldn't go see your friends because we're in an uncontrolled pandemic. Just because you don't want to hear it doesn't mean it's not good advice.

Hey dabigv - I’m not seeing my friends. And there is nothing in my post suggesting that I am. (But thanks, anyway for the patronizing comment) So you apparently miss my point. I’ll say it again - I don’t find the “compassion” in a flip statement about your social bubble being popped. In fact, I think it’s callous. You and everyone else are free to disagree.

Point 2 - when the Gov comes out with regional guidelines on day one and then on day two a few county health officials (unelected of course) essentially say “we know better we’re gonna push it forward” -I find that to be an overreach.


RE: lex24 - Genuine Realist - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 01:52 PM)lex24 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Hey lex, you shouldn't go see your friends because we're in an uncontrolled pandemic. Just because you don't want to hear it doesn't mean it's not good advice.

Hey dabigv - I’m not seeing my friends.  You apparently miss my point.  But I do appreciate the patronizing comment.
I think the present numbers are sufficiently grave to justify fairly severe restrictions. But to think that all this is purely science is nonsense.

Looking back a few months, Santa Clara County and San Mateo were in roughly similar positions. San Mateo permitted the movie theaters to re-open, subject to some restrictions on attendance, masking, etc. Santa Clara County also permitted reopening, but forbade food and beverage sales, which effectively meant no reopening.

And what effect did the greater severity have? None at all, as far as I know. There was no significant difference between case levels in the counties when levels were declining, and the spike has hit both of them roughly equivalently.

Both health officers have access to the same info, and both seem professionally competent. The difference in regulations isn't based on science, but on different personal 'feel' about the interaction between the pandemic threat and the need to keep larger society intact, to the extent possible.

And everyone knows this, that value judgments are in play. It is disingenuous in the extreme to say that they are not.


RE: lex24 - Farm93 - 12-09-2020

Lex24,

A nice set of guidelines or recommendations should be coming from POTUS45 in this moment of crisis, but POTUS45 has been too busy tweeting about the election and now election fraud to ever really care about COVID.

Most other elected officials then are in a bind.   Some know the right thing, but don't have the clout or standing to go up against President Tweet.  So long, long ago they opted for an easy out.    Most going along the lines with something like this, "I will listen to the medical experts and follow their advice."

The experts they are talking about are health care officials.   So it should not be too shocking to see that in many states the tough love messages about the pandemic are coming from health care officials since elected officials punted to that group because they feared President Tweet's power.   

IIWII

Most of these health officials never wanted to be out there pleading for citizens to alter their behavior to control a pandemic.  They are trying and it is hard.   The one thing they can see in the data is the current set of activities and behaviors will get a lot of citizens killed and could have a devastating long term impact on the health care system.

But...if those words don't work for you, not to worry...

Here in SoCal we got that BLEEP BLEEEP BLEEEEP cascade yesterday morning.   If you had commentary for a health care official trying to humanely sound the alarm, just wait until every cell phone in your house/neighborhood or building blasts the alarm.

I sure hope some in the Bay Area listen to local health officials, but if most decide they would rather wait until they get a message from someone more important than Samsung, LG and Apple will chime in soon for your area too.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - OutsiderFan - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:42 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:  A health official who speaks of 'social bubbles being popped' and apparently reveling in that..

Where the hell does this crap come from, exactly?  NOBODY is enjoying giving out orders to shut things down. Think the Generals were reveling in sending 18 year olds to die on D -Day? Think public health professionals are enjoying people losing their jobs or livelihoods?

Did Project Veritas produce some made up bullshit story about public health officials taking delight in businesses being shuttered? Seriously, where do you get this utter and complete nonsense?


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Goose - 12-09-2020

I am virtually certain that many health officers have had their recommendations modulated by what their Board of Supervisors would tolerate, and I am equally certain there was some emotion involved in being overruled. The tone of the comment seemed to me to contain a bit of "I told you so, and you didn't listen. These bubbles were never a good idea in the first place." At a minimum, it was emphatically telling people that the bubble idea is over with starting RTFN. That said, I don't find it offensive. Yes, it could have been phrased in a less "assertive" fashion, but it it also possible the officer meant it to be assertive. People need to get the point.


lex24 - lex24 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:57 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  Lex24,

A nice set of guidelines or recommendations should be coming from POTUS45 in this moment of crisis, but POTUS45 has been too busy tweeting about the election and now election fraud to ever really care about COVID.

Most other elected officials then are in a bind.   Some know the right thing, but don't have the clout or standing to go up against President Tweet.  So long, long ago they opted for an easy out.    Most going along the lines with something like this, "I will listen to the medical experts and follow their advice."

The experts they are talking about are health care officials.   So it should not be too shocking to see that in many states the tough love messages about the pandemic are coming from health care officials since elected officials punted to that group because they feared President Tweet's power.   

IIWII

Most of these health officials never wanted to be out there pleading for citizens to alter their behavior to control a pandemic.  They are trying and it is hard.   The one thing they can see in the data is the current set of activities and behaviors will get a lot of citizens killed and could have a devastating long term impact on the health care system.

But...if those words don't work for you, not to worry...

Here in SoCal we got that BLEEP BLEEEP BLEEEEP cascade yesterday morning.   If you had commentary for a health care official trying to humanely sound the alarm, just wait until every cell phone in your house/neighborhood or building blasts the alarm.

I sure hope some in the Bay Area listen to local health officials, but if most decide they would rather wait until they get a message from someone more important than Samsung, LG and Apple will chime in soon for your area too.

My post is about Calif. Newsom has consistently been on top of this.  With proper messaging and orders. And if you would  bother to read what I say as opposed to reflexively assuming that I simply don’t give a damn because I don’t buy into exactly what you think is what and how I should think, you would know that I’m not complaining at all about what Newsom put in place. I thought at the time and still think it is the right thing to do.  

I won’t get a “chime in“. My area falls under one of the health directors who decided Newsom‘s order wasn’t enough. We are already there


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Genuine Realist - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 03:21 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:42 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:  A health official who speaks of 'social bubbles being popped' and apparently reveling in that..

Where the hell does this crap come from, exactly?  NOBODY is enjoying giving out orders to shut things down. Think the Generals were reveling in sending 18 year olds to die on D -Day? Think public health professionals are enjoying people losing their jobs or livelihoods?

Did Project Veritas produce some made up bullshit story about public health officials taking delight in businesses being shuttered? Seriously, where do you get this utter and complete nonsense?
The belittling metaphor chosen.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - OutsiderFan - 12-09-2020

OK, let's get into this further...

I read the Morrow post and really appreciated his perspective. Honestly, there is not a lot to disagree with him about. That said, if you strip away everything he said, you are left with one overarching conclusion: He agrees everyone should avoid travel, gathering, keep distance, and mask up if outside their residence.

He effectively says the only reason he isn't issuing the same orders as the other Bay Area counties is because he doesn't know how effective telling people what to do is, and absent enforcement, what is the point of orders?  He even makes my point, which is why in the hell are we allowing sports to be played if it is essentially important for everyone to avoid travel, gathering, and distance from others?

But the fact is at this point - as he points out - the stay at home orders are not as strict as they were in March. It seems everyone at all levels realizes you can't completely shut down all businesses any longer.  Regulating capacity is a much more balanced and pragmatic approach. He says he's not sure how 20% capacity in grocery stores will impact them. I don't either, but given the amount of people using shopping services, and the fact Whole Foods isn't counting their paid shoppers against the 20% capacity AFAIK, I don't think it will be hurting them much.

As far as the "only those accountable to voters should make decisions" concept, this would be a terrible practice. There is a reason Federal judges are appointed to lifetime positions.  It's the same reason public health officials should never be subject to voting. Can you even imagine the disaster it would be if a pro-business, anti-science lobby paid for a massive campaign to put a corporate shill in Dr. Cody's position? How'd you like Dr. Scott Atlas in charge in Santa Clara County? We as people are so vulnerable to greedy corporate interests as it is. Now you want us to put our public health for sale in our corrupt AF political systems? How much more do you think a pro-business, anti-science lobby could raise for its preferred candidate, versus a science-driven public health officer? Might it be 5x or maybe 10x?  I can't believe anyone would think subjecting public health officers to elections is in any way a good idea.  I can see the ads now "A public health officer who will balance business interest with our health." Think that message might win an election, versus "I will be guided by the science, data, and the best epidemiology."

But even f you say the public health officer shouldn't be subject to elections, but should give recommendations for elected officials to make their own calls, you're in effectively the same position, with public health officials neutered to protect public health. I again go back to the Korea example with the KBO and the Korean CDC.  KBO only was able to play games in accordance with its CDC guidelines. This is how it should be, because this allows the health experts to make the calls, not business interests who really don't care about or have any responsibility for pubic health.

I get it, people are frustrated by the situation, but tearing down the systems we have in place to protect us because you don't like how we are being protected, is a recipe for future disaster. Rather than complaining about being told what to do, spend your time encouraging everyone you know to practice the behavior Dr. Morrow advocates, orders or not. We aren't near the end of this pandemic. So the best course of action is to stop it, because the more we don't do all we can to do so - which is what are public health leaders are trying to do - the longer it will be damaging us.


RE: lex24 - 82 Card - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 09:49 AM)lex24 Wrote:  I watched it also OF.  And I didn’t bend it out of shape.  I admit to some confirmation bias on my part. I want these coming from elected officials. And I believed then and now that Newsom’s order and it’s trigger should apply state wide. BTW, will you admit to confirmation bias on your part?
Sure. Insist on the elected officials doing what needs to be done. Then run endless recall campaigns against them. Newsom is already up to 6 recall campaigns. Let's bring that to the county level. Haters gonna hate, no matter who makes the announcement.


RE: lex24 - dabigv13 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 01:52 PM)lex24 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Hey lex, you shouldn't go see your friends because we're in an uncontrolled pandemic. Just because you don't want to hear it doesn't mean it's not good advice.

Hey dabigv - I’m not seeing my friends.  And there is nothing in my post suggesting that I am.  (But thanks, anyway for the patronizing comment) So you apparently miss my point. I’ll say it again - I don’t find the “compassion” in a flip statement about your social bubble being popped. In fact, I think it’s callous.  You and everyone else are free to disagree.

Point 2 -  when the Gov  comes out with regional guidelines on day one and then on day two a few county health officials (unelected of course) essentially say “we know better we’re gonna push it forward” -I find that to be an overreach.

Ok so your whole argument is tone policing? Saying a social bubble popped offends your delicate sensibilities?Unreal. Conservatives are such delicate snowflakes.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Goose - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  But even f you say the public health officer shouldn't be subject to elections, but should give recommendations for elected officials to make their own calls, you're in effectively the same position, with public health officials neutered to protect public health. I again go back to the Korea example with the KBO and the Korean CDC.  KBO only was able to play games in accordance with its CDC guidelines. This is how it should be, because this allows the health experts to make the calls, not business interests who really don't care about or have any responsibility for pubic health.

OF, while I absolutely totally agree with the idea that Public Health Officers should not be elected, I think your emphasis in wrong. The Board of Supervisors can fire the Public Health Officer if they wish. They appoint the holder of that office. It is in no way a lifetime appointment. Further, the Sheriff has the law enforcement duties in the county. If the Sheriff refuses to enforce the County Health Officers orders, they will not be enforced. We see this right now in Orange County.

The Supervisors firing the Health Officer is a lot like the President firing the Attorney General. You can do it, but you better have public support if you do. That said, the authority of the Public Health Officer isn't absolute and probably can't go against the grain of the Supervisors too much or there will be a vacancy. It is useful for the Supervisors because they can hide behind the expertise of the Health Officer when desired. Similarly, the State Health Officer is appointed by the Governor. They can be fired if necessary.


RE: “If you have a social bubble, it’s popped.” - Genuine Realist - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 03:59 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  OK, let's get into this further...

I read the Morrow post and really appreciated his perspective. Honestly, there is not a lot to disagree with him about. That said, if you strip away everything he said, you are left with one overarching conclusion: He agrees everyone should avoid travel, gathering, keep distance, and mask up if outside their residence.

He effectively says the only reason he isn't issuing the same orders as the other Bay Area counties is because he doesn't know how effective telling people what to do is, and absent enforcement, what is the point of orders?  He even makes my point, which is why in the hell are we allowing sports to be played if it is essentially important for everyone to avoid travel, gathering, and distance from others?

But the fact is at this point - as he points out - the stay at home orders are not as strict as they were in March. It seems everyone at all levels realizes you can't completely shut down all businesses any longer.  Regulating capacity is a much more balanced and pragmatic approach. He says he's not sure how 20% capacity in grocery stores will impact them. I don't either, but given the amount of people using shopping services, and the fact Whole Foods isn't counting their paid shoppers against the 20% capacity AFAIK, I don't think it will be hurting them much.

As far as the "only those accountable to voters should make decisions" concept, this would be a terrible practice. There is a reason Federal judges are appointed to lifetime positions.  It's the same reason public health officials should never be subject to voting. Can you even imagine the disaster it would be if a pro-business, anti-science lobby paid for a massive campaign to put a corporate shill in Dr. Cody's position? How'd you like Dr. Scott Atlas in charge in Santa Clara County? We as people are so vulnerable to greedy corporate interests as it is. Now you want us to put our public health for sale in our corrupt AF political systems? How much more do you think a pro-business, anti-science lobby could raise for its preferred candidate, versus a science-driven public health officer? Might it be 5x or maybe 10x?  I can't believe anyone would think subjecting public health officers to elections is in any way a good idea.  I can see the ads now "A public health officer who will balance business interest with our health." Think that message might win an election, versus "I will be guided by the science, data, and the best epidemiology."

But even f you say the public health officer shouldn't be subject to elections, but should give recommendations for elected officials to make their own calls, you're in effectively the same position, with public health officials neutered to protect public health. I again go back to the Korea example with the KBO and the Korean CDC.  KBO only was able to play games in accordance with its CDC guidelines. This is how it should be, because this allows the health experts to make the calls, not business interests who really don't care about or have any responsibility for pubic health.

I get it, people are frustrated by the situation, but tearing down the systems we have in place to protect us because you don't like how we are being protected, is a recipe for future disaster. Rather than complaining about being told what to do, spend your time encouraging everyone you know to practice the behavior Dr. Morrow advocates, orders or not. We aren't near the end of this pandemic. So the best course of action is to stop it, because the more we don't do all we can to do so - which is what are public health leaders are trying to do - the longer it will be damaging us.
This might surprise you, but I am not at all on lex's page about non-elected officials. As a matter of practicality, I believe every county and municipality runs on a managerial system, whereby a county or city manager is appointed by a board of supervisors or city council. Health officers, police chiefs, and the like may not be elected, but they are definitely accountable. (You may not know this, but police chief in a small town is one of the hottest seats there is. They get fired all the time.) Goose is definitely correct that these regulations are strongly debated between executives and the Board. Cody is not a free agent, and - candidly - she will probably be fired after all this improves. She's a bit too rigid for my taste, and I bet for a lot of the supes.

My own shtick is a little different. I'm strongly hostile to the idea that 'rigorous' equates to 'scientific', and 'flexible' means the opposite. The science of this thing does not get down to that filigree detail, and the personal values of Cody and Morrow come into play after the science runs out. Personality types, too - if you're cautious, you can't get burned, and yet there is such a thing as over-caution. You can do real harm to non-quantifiable social values that are quite real and valid even if they can't be calculated. 

Finally, you're on my turf with one opinion. if the Founding Fathers had envisioned the extent to which federal courts have become involved in the making of social policy, there's no way judges would have life tenure. You should never have contested elections, but my own thought is that the CAlifornia system, in which you have an extended term for justices, followed by a yes/no plebiscite, is close to ideal. No institution should have unchecked power. I knew Rose Bird and in fact succeeded her as the motions and appeals deputy in the Santa Clara Public Defender's Office when she left to join Jerry Brown's campaign. She was a decent person, but an appalling judge, absolutely rigid inside her own value system. When she looked at the California Constitution, she saw her own reflection, and unfortunately not one with much balance. It is almost impossible to describe the carnage she and her cohorts had inflicted on California tort and criminal law by 1986 (when the voters quite wisely threw them out). You do need that sort of check. Lex disagrees with this, I think, because he clerked for one of the justices who was a good guy. But he'd joined the wrong faction.

Cody is accountable, though unelected, in the same way Rose Bird was. So I think Lex's complaints on that basis are misplaced. But she has shown a school marm's strictness at times when the wisdom was debatable, and which did real harm. (Right now, drastic measures are appropriate.) I don't think she is going to be with us this time next year.