Outside Topic OT Niners - Printable Version

Outside Topic OT Niners - Printable Version

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OT Niners - Phogge - 12-20-2020

Mullins has no field vision. Tries hard but a #3. Need to draft a QB, at least somebody talented to be a decent #2. Need help on the O line (the Domer tackle is awful) a corner, a safety and have tough decisions on their own free agents. Should have a good D next year but will probably need a DC. #4 in the best division in the league.

If they decide to keep Jimmy a guy like Mills could be a good pick at #2 or #3.

RE: OT Niners - Mick - 12-20-2020

(12-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Phogge Wrote: Mullins has no field vision. Tries hard but a #3. Need to draft a QB, at least somebody talented to be a decent #2. Need help on the O line (the Domer tackle is awful) a corner, a safety and have tough decisions on their own free agents. Should have a good D next year but will probably need a DC. #4 in the best division in the league.

If they decide to keep Jimmy a guy like Mills could be a good pick at #2 or #3.

I think they need to get Matt Stafford.

RE: OT Niners - Phogge - 12-20-2020

I agree but can they afford him?

RE: OT Niners - winflop - 12-20-2020

(12-20-2020, 07:39 PM)Mick Wrote:
(12-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Phogge Wrote: Mullins has no field vision. Tries hard but a #3. Need to draft a QB, at least somebody talented to be a decent #2. Need help on the O line (the Domer tackle is awful) a corner, a safety and have tough decisions on their own free agents. Should have a good D next year but will probably need a DC. #4 in the best division in the league.

If they decide to keep Jimmy a guy like Mills could be a good pick at #2 or #3.

I think they need to get Matt Stafford.

I think they need to get (and stay) healthy

RE: OT Niners - Mick - 12-21-2020

(12-20-2020, 07:48 PM)winflop Wrote:
(12-20-2020, 07:39 PM)Mick Wrote:
(12-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Phogge Wrote: Mullins has no field vision. Tries hard but a #3. Need to draft a QB, at least somebody talented to be a decent #2. Need help on the O line (the Domer tackle is awful) a corner, a safety and have tough decisions on their own free agents. Should have a good D next year but will probably need a DC. #4 in the best division in the league.

If they decide to keep Jimmy a guy like Mills could be a good pick at #2 or #3.

I think they need to get Matt Stafford.

I think they need to get (and stay) healthy

Niners had the most injuries in the NFL this year. They were 11th last year, but had the most in 2018:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured-reserve/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured-reserve/2019/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured-reserve/2018/

That's a real problem. There's snakebit, and then there's systemic issues. Shanahan and Lynch are doing something really, really wrong to invite that many injuries.

RE: OT Niners - OutsiderFan - 12-22-2020

Well, all y'all who wanted to see Beathard won't have to be worried about Nick Mullens anymore. He is now a possible candidate for Tommy John surgery. That will put him out for the next two games, and put him out of next season as well. IOW, Mullens might have played his last NFL game in Dallas, and certainly his last one for the Niners, given he is an RFA in a month.

But hey, the Niners did sign Josh Rosen, so all you Stanford/Niners fans who believed in Rosen might get a look at him in a Niners uni. Whether he gets on the field is another story.

RE: OT Niners - Mick - 12-23-2020

(12-22-2020, 04:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Well, all y'all who wanted to see Beathard won't have to be worried about Nick Mullens anymore. He is now a possible candidate for Tommy John surgery. That will put him out for the next two games, and put him out of next season as well. IOW, Mullens might have played his last NFL game in Dallas, and certainly his last one for the Niners, given he is an RFA in a month.

But hey, the Niners did sign Josh Rosen, so all you Stanford/Niners fans who believed in Rosen might get a look at him in a Niners uni. Whether he gets on the field is another story.

Rosen, an undeniably successful quarterback at UCLA, is on his fourth pro team in three years...with all that implies. He is 3-13 as a starter, and in his only full year, was 33rd and dead last among NFL QBs in QBR. Even Mullens was 21st that year.

Incidentally, in Kaepernick's last, 1-10 year, he was 22nd in the NFL in QBR, 34th the year before that. That must have been confusing for 49er fans. In Steve Young's eight full seasons as a starting 49er QB, he led the league in rating six times, the other two he finished 6th and 3rd. In Montana's ten full seasons as SF's starting QB, he led the NFL in rating just twice, but was 4th, 5th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 6th and 7th otherwise. Even Jeff Garcia was 4th, 3rd, 12th and 15th. (Brodie was 6th, 13th, 2nd, 8th, 12th, 8th, 4th, 1st and 15th).

Kaepernick would have finished 7th in Rating in his Super Bowl season, had he had enough attempts to qualify. It was his first full season as a starter. After that, his rating went 10th, 20th, 31st, and 17th in his last season. Garropolo was 10th in QBR his Super Bowl year.

lex24 - lex24 - 12-23-2020

(12-23-2020, 09:28 AM)Mick Wrote:
(12-22-2020, 04:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Well, all y'all who wanted to see Beathard won't have to be worried about Nick Mullens anymore. He is now a possible candidate for Tommy John surgery. That will put him out for the next two games, and put him out of next season as well. IOW, Mullens might have played his last NFL game in Dallas, and certainly his last one for the Niners, given he is an RFA in a month.

But hey, the Niners did sign Josh Rosen, so all you Stanford/Niners fans who believed in Rosen might get a look at him in a Niners uni. Whether he gets on the field is another story.

Rosen, an undeniably successful quarterback at UCLA, is on his fourth pro team in three years...with all that implies. He is 3-13 as a starter, and in his only full year, was 33rd and dead last among NFL QBs in QBR. Even Mullens was 21st that year.

Incidentally, in Kaepernick's last, 1-10 year, he was 22nd in the NFL in QBR, 34th the year before that. That must have been confusing for 49er fans. In Steve Young's eight full seasons as a starting 49er QB, he led the league in rating six times, the other two he finished 6th and 3rd. In Montana's ten full seasons as SF's starting QB, he led the NFL in rating just twice, but was 4th, 5th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 6th and 7th otherwise. Even Jeff Garcia was 4th, 3rd, 12th and 15th. (Brodie was 6th, 13th, 2nd, 8th, 12th, 8th, 4th, 1st and 15th).

Kaepernick would have finished 7th in Rating in his Super Bowl season, had he had enough attempts to qualify. It was his first full season as a starter. After that, his rating went 10th, 20th, 31st, and 17th in his last season. Garropolo was 10th in QBR his Super Bowl year.

I’ll deny that Rosen was successful at UCLA. I suspect Jim Mora would also. There is a reason he’s now with his 4th team in 3 years. I don’t think it relates to talent. He is talented.

I think Lynch is channeling Farhan. There is no risk in grabbing this guy off the ash heap. And if somehow he can develop a bit, there is a potential upside.

RE: OT Niners - BostonCard - 12-23-2020

I have to wonder...

Would he have been more or less successful at Stanford?

In the end, was Shaw right to pass?

BC

RE: OT Niners - BobK - 12-23-2020

Rosen enrolled early but in 30 games he passed for 9,000 yards.

RE: OT Niners - BostonCard - 12-23-2020

Josh Rosen:

2015: 292/487 (60%), 3669 yards (7.5 ypa), 23 TD, 11 INT, QBR of 134.3 (top in the league were Vernon Adams 179 and Kevin Hogan 171; Rosen was 9th)
2016: injured 137/231 (59%), 1915 yards (8.3 ypa), 10 TD, 5 INT, QBR of 138.9 (top in the league were Jake Browning at 167.5 and Sam Darnold at 161.1, Ryan Burns was 10th at 120.5; Rosen didn't have enough attempts to qualify, but would have been fifth)
2017: 283/452 (63%) 3756 yards (8.3 ypa), 26 TD, 10 INT, QBR of 147.0 (top in the league were Khalil Tate and Jake Browning at 152; Rosen was fourth, KJ Costello was sixth at 139.5)

Also, Rosen lost all three games against Stanford (35-59, 13-22, 34-58), and his teams were 8-5 (5-4 in conference) and 6-7 (4-5 in conference). He was 3-3 in 2016 before becoming injured, beating UNLV, BYU, and Arizona and losing to Texas A&M, Stanford, and ASU. So, in three years with the Bruins, he was a slightly better than average QB, who led basically average teams (17-15 record) and lost to Stanford three times, including losing to the 2016 team that was quarterbacked by Ryan Burns.

Considering the hype, he didn't exactly set the league on fire.

BC

lex24 - lex24 - 12-23-2020

(12-23-2020, 06:22 PM)BobK Wrote: Rosen enrolled early but in 30 games he passed for 9,000 yards.

Stats were fine. Results were not. Mora revamped his offense to suit Rosen. Went from spread type to a pro-set. Rosen was supposed to be Andrew Luck. He wasn’t close.

RE: OT Niners - jonnyss - 12-23-2020

mediocre results may not lie primarily on rosen's shoulders. ucla got considerably worse after rosen left. just starting to claw their way back this season.

RE: OT Niners - BostonCard - 12-23-2020

In his best year, Rosen's QBR was fourth in the league. KJ Costello was a better QB in 2018 than Rosen was in 2017 (Costello was a year behind Rosen, so they represent the same number of years in the system).

Rosen (2017): 283/452 (63%) 3756 yards (8.3 ypa), 26 TD, 10 INT, QBR of 147.0
Costello (2018): 269/413 (65%) 3540 (8.6 ypa), 29 TD, 11 INT, QBR of 155.0

BC

RE: OT Niners - Goose - 12-23-2020

(12-23-2020, 06:01 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I have to wonder...

Would he have been more or less successful at Stanford?

In the end, was Shaw right to pass?

BC

I don't think it was Shaw's choice to make. Rosen wanted to start as a freshman. In order to do that, he would have needed to enroll early. He couldn't do that at Stanford. End of story. On top of that, Shaw wasn't going to bench Senior Kevin Hogan for Freshman Josh Rosen no matter when Rosen got there. It was a total non-starter from Rosen's point of view.

lex24 - lex24 - 12-23-2020

(12-23-2020, 08:52 PM)jonnyss Wrote: mediocre results may not lie primarily on rosen's shoulders. ucla got considerably worse after rosen left. just starting to claw their way back this season.

True. But I think it’s fair to say he did not live up to the hype.

RE: OT Niners - pefloresjr - 12-23-2020

(12-23-2020, 10:04 PM)Goose Wrote:
(12-23-2020, 06:01 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I have to wonder...

Would he have been more or less successful at Stanford?

In the end, was Shaw right to pass?

BC
I don't think it was Shaw's choice to make. Rosen wanted to start as a freshman. In order to do that, he would have needed to enroll early. He couldn't do that at Stanford. End of story. On top of that, Shaw wasn't going to bench Senior Kevin Hogan for Freshman Josh Rosen no matter when Rosen got there. It was a total non-starter from Rosen's point of view.

You didn't break up with me, because I was going to break up with you! Rosen wanted several things but the reason he didn't play at Stanford is not because he rejected Stanford. Shaw passed. Maybe it was never meant to be, but it is absolutely false to portray it as though Rosen rejected Stanford.

I don't have any particular beef with Rosen and kind of liked his frankness and, at times, thoughtfulness. However, I am glad Shaw passed on him because he seemed more focused on personal goals than team goals. The only reason I rooted against him when he wasn't playing Stanford was a reactionary response I had to all the Shawtagonists who seem to look for any reason to disparage Shaw's decisions. I root for the Niners and hope that Rosen can help them. I don't think he is likely the answer but he does have talent and none of us can predict how any player's career will turn out.

Cheers,
Pete F.

RE: OT Niners - Phogge - 12-24-2020

The Niner QB situation at least will fan the off season fires and bridge the gap between MLB and the NFL for those of us who don’t follow the NBA.

- Do they dump Pretty Boy and either sign a vet like Stafford or do they pick one of the top guys left in the draft (Jones, Lance, Book)?

- If they pick up a Stafford-like do they draft a project backup in the fourth round?

- Do they roll the dice and take Mills in the second round and keep Jimmy? This after taking a corner in the first round?

RE: OT Niners - Goose - 12-24-2020

(12-23-2020, 11:27 PM)pefloresjr Wrote:
(12-23-2020, 10:04 PM)Goose Wrote: I don't think it was Shaw's choice to make. Rosen wanted to start as a freshman. In order to do that, he would have needed to enroll early. He couldn't do that at Stanford. End of story. On top of that, Shaw wasn't going to bench Senior Kevin Hogan for Freshman Josh Rosen no matter when Rosen got there. It was a total non-starter from Rosen's point of view.

You didn't break up with me, because I was going to break up with you! Rosen wanted several things but the reason he didn't play at Stanford is not because he rejected Stanford. Shaw passed. Maybe it was never meant to be, but it is absolutely false to portray it as though Rosen rejected Stanford.

I don't have any particular beef with Rosen and kind of liked his frankness and, at times, thoughtfulness. However, I am glad Shaw passed on him because he seemed more focused on personal goals than team goals.

I guess I would grant you the point that Rosen technically didn't reject Stanford. He wanted to come to his dream school subject to some conditions that were just not available. Under those conditions, Shaw didn't want him. That is how I see it having played out. So I would say they (Rosen and Shaw) both realized there wasn't a fit.

RE: OT Niners - OutsiderFan - 12-24-2020

The Niners have one job and that is to fix the QB position.

It would be worth trading their entire allotment of picks in this year's draft to get who they want. Everyone knows the on-field reasons why. Here's some off field reasons.

This year's free agent class is really really weak. The #1 Free Agent for the Niners is Trent Williams, who the Niners have a leg up to sign. He has even said he doesn't need top dollar to stay with Niners. After that, its DE Yannick Ngakoue, who is only 26. Both these guys will carry roughly a $15M+ price tags, or a bit more than Garoppolo at current salary. Ngakoue is the only big fish Free Agent I see that would be worth pursuing. All the other ones that might be upgrades are 30+, and don't play a need position. Trent Williams is worth signing at 33 because he plays a position that ages well, he had a whole year off, and doesn't have an injury history. So the Niners are better off signing their own Free Agents for the most part, known quantities who mostly will not break the bank.

The Niners have three choices with Garoppolo and QB position:

- Status quo: Bring back Garoppolo on current deal, sign Williams, let a lot of guys go and fill in roster with unproven draft picks.
Pro: Not really any I can see. Con: Lose many proven guys, have to pray Garoppolo stays healthy and improves from 2020lets

- New contract: Get a big price reduction with incentives and make a one-year deal, that allows more of their own free agents to be retained, sign a Jameis Winston, and maybe even lets them sign Ngakoue, and maybe draft a 2nd-3rd round QB, like a Trask, Mills or Book.
Pro: You have improved roster around Garoppolo and reduced your liability if he can't perform. Con: None, unless hell-bent on Top 3-rated QB.

- Rookie QB: Cut Garoppolo and do whatever is needed to land the guy you want. Use the money saved to retain your own free agents and sign Ngakoue, and Jameis Winston to create a legit QB competition. Potentially add a lot of players in draft.
Pro: Nothing gives a team more advantage in NFL than a good QB on a rookie deal, and keep your Free Agents especially if used draft capital to get your QB. Con: Rookie QB failing is costly, especially if a lot of draft capital is used to get.

It is rare, but not as rare as you might think for a rookie QB to come in and help team challenge for a championship. Pittsburgh did it with Roethlisberger. Seattle did it with Wilson. Dallas did it with Prescott. But in none of those cases did getting those guys require giving up draft capital. I think the Niners have an even more talented overall roster than any of those teams did when they had rookie QBs. The Eagles did give up draft capital to get Carson Wentz, and though he got hurt, he did enough to get his team in position for Foles to take over and win them a Super Bowl.

If you do a great job scouting and can project the QB you want in the 2nd or 3rd round, you win championships. Say for instance, Shanahan identifies Kyle Trask as the guy he wants, and he can be had in the second round, and Trask steps in and is better than Garoppolo right away. You have instant Super Bowl contender, maybe even with a less than great OL.

For me, you must go with the second or third option. Staying status quo is just not going to cut it. I have to think Kyle Shanahan, having the two Super Bowls slip through his fingers, and 3/4 of his years as head coach not having a serviceable QB, is ready to roll the dice on something bold to have a breakthrough.