The CardBoard
Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools (/thread-21708.html)

Pages: 1 2

Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-16-2021

#26 Arizona State (3-0, 9-3) and Arizona (0-3, 8-6) come to town this weekend to play our #24 Stanford Cardinal (2-0, 5-0). 

Teams at a glance

Wait, why are we ranked #24 when we were the #4 preseason team? Well, because we haven't played anyone good. The rankings are still a coaches' poll for now, so while you'd expect there to be some level of forgiveness for the fact that Stanford's season started later than most, and they should be ranking teams according to how good they think they are, there's clearly a resume component here. As other teams have played and beaten good teams, presumably those coaches are going to make Stanford earn its rise through the rankings. Our lineup has now consistently been as follows, though sophomore Angelica Blake (last year's #3) is still conspicuously missing:

1. #10 Michaela Gordon (Sr., Saratoga, CA)
2. #63 Emily Arbuthnott (5th year, Harpenden, England)
3. Ana Geller (Fr., Buenos Aires, Argentina)
4. Sara Choy (Jr., Palo Alto, CA)
5. Janice Shin (Sr., Houston, TX)

And at 6, it's been a rotation between 5th year Emma Higuchi (Los Angeles, CA), junior Niluka Madurawe (Sunnyvale, CA), and freshman India Houghton (Tiburon, CA)

Arizona State has had a solid start to the season, losing a disappointing match to now-#12 Baylor, 4-2 (though ASU was about to get a third point) to lead off ITA Kick-Off Weekend, then getting Power 5 wins over #32 Oklahoma (4-3) and #43 Kansas State (4-1) before dropping road matches to #33 Texas Tech (3-4) and #34 Rice (2-5). They're 3-0 in Pac-12 play so far, with a 4-0 win over Oregon, a 6-1 win at #38 WSU, and a 5-2 win at #40 UW. They're the 4th-highest Pac-12 team in the ITA rankings (behind UCLA, Cal, and Stanford), and that seems right to me. This is a dangerous team, and while Stanford should clearly be favored, ASU is a team you need to bring your A game to beat. Glad it's at home. The singles lineup has generally been as follows:

1. #37 Ilze Hattingh (5th year, Pretoria, South Africa)
2. #115 Sammi Hampton (6th year, Vancouver, WA)
3. Lauryn John-Baptiste (Jr., London, England)
4. Giulia Morlet (Fr., Paris, France)
5. Marianna Argyrokastriti (Fr., Athens, Greece)

A rotating cast of characters (Junior Cali Jankowski, a former Blue Chip recruit; Tereza Kolarova, a 5th year from the Czech Republic, and Domenika Turkovic, a junior from Croatia) have filled out the #6 line. In their closer matches, ASU has grabbed the doubles point (generally losing on Court 1 but winning on 2 and 3), but the singles results haven't followed a consistent pattern. Against Baylor, they got a win on Court 4 (and were seconds away from a win on 3), but lost 2 and 6 in straight sets and 1 and 5 in three sets. Against Oklahoma, they got wins at 1 (in three sets), 2 (via retirement after just three games), and 5. Against Texas Tech, they got wins at 2 (in three sets) and 6, losing 1 and 5 in three sets. Against Rice, it was 1 and 5 (both in three sets), while they lost three other 3-setters on Courts 2, 3, and 4. Against UW, they lost doubles but got wins everywhere except Court 1. The lesson: this team can grind out matches and can push you to the very end. 

Meanwhile, Arizona has lost to anyone remotely good who they've played, so there's not a lot to glean from their matches. But the three Pac-12 losses (3-4 to Oregon, 3-4 to UW, and 2-4 to WSU) have all been close. Against Oregon, they lost the doubles point but got singles wins on Courts 2, 5, and 6, losing three-setters on Courts 3 and 4. Against UW, they lost doubles again and got wins on the back three courts (4 and 5 in three sets), while losing 1 handily, 2 more narrowly, and 3 in a third-set tiebreaker. And against WSU, the Wildcats again dropped doubles and got wins at 2 and 6 (both in three sets), lost at 3, 4, and 5 (3 and 4 in three sets), and Wilkins was down 5-3 in the third to #55 Michaela Bayerlova when the match was abandoned. The singles lineups have recently been:

1. Kayla Wilkins (So., Charlotte, NC)
2. Jelena Lukic (Sr., Belgrade, Serbia) (grad transfer from Univ. of Portland)
3. Abby Amos (5th year, Leicestershire, England)
4. Talya Zandberg (Sr., Tiberias, Israel)
5. Gitte Heynemans (Sr., Brussels, Belgium)
6. Khim Iglupas (So., Iligan City, Philippines)

Arizona has long been a bottom-feeder in the Pac-12, but that 0-3 conference record doesn't reflect how close those matches have been. I think UW may be down a bit from recent years, but WSU just pulled off an upset win over USC, so Arizona playing them very close is worthy of notice. 

When?

The ASU match is Friday at 1:30pm, and the Arizona match is Saturday at 1:00pm. 

How do I watch?

Live scoring/video link is here: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/?DB_OEM_ID=30600
Last weekend in the Pac-12:

* Arizona State beat both Washington schools, which in turn both beat Arizona
* #21 USC lost 4-1 to #4 Pepperdine
* #5 UCLA lost 4-3 at #4 Pepperdine (UCLA took doubles per usual and #7 Abbey Forbes (UCLA) rolled over #1 Ashley Lahey with Goulak adding a win at Court 5, but Pepperdine won the rest--UCLA's usual #2 player, #9 Elysia Bolton, didn't play)  
* #17 Cal beat San Diego 4-3
* Oregon beat Colorado 7-0 (!!) and Utah 4-3. 

(And correction above--ASU is the 5th-highest ranked team in the conference, as USC is #21, but I'd put ASU above USC, who is 7-5 with some respectable losses but with no real standout wins.)

This weekend in the Pac-12:

* ASU and Arizona visit Stanford and Cal
* Colorado and Utah visit UCLA and USC
* Oregon travels to play San Diego and SDSU
* UW hosts Portland
* WSU hosts Eastern Washington

Pac-12 Standings

1. #26 Arizona State (3-0, 9-3) 
T2. #24 Stanford (2-0, 5-0)
T2. #5 UCLA (2-0, 8-3)
4. Oregon (3-1, 9-2)
5. #17 Cal (2-1, 8-2)
6. #38 WSU (2-2, 8-6)
7. #21 USC (1-1, 7-5)
8. #47 Colorado (1-2, 7-4)
9. #40 UW (1-3, 8-4)
10. Arizona (0-2, 8-6)
11. Utah (0-3, 6-6) 

Utah and Arizona have been a bit unlucky in their losses, while Colorado has somehow managed to beat Cal and get blanked by Oregon in the same season, which is wild. The bottom of the conference is more wide open than I can remember. It remains to be seen whether Oregon's early-season success is a mirage (with wins over similarly lowly teams) or if they really have taken a step forward as a program.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - BobK - 03-16-2021

Awesome summary. Thank you. Looking forward to two more wins.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-16-2021

(03-16-2021, 11:29 AM)BobK Wrote:  Awesome summary.  Thank you.  Looking forward to two more wins.

Thanks, Bob! I'm confident we'll get those two wins, though we should expect something in the neighborhood of a 5-2 match against ASU. Gordon will have a fight on her hands, but I like her chances to pull it out. It'll be the best test so far this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the matches get pushed to a third set.
Oh, and Cal has been added to the schedule for Friday, April 16 at Stanford. So, the overall conference home-road breakdown this year is:

Home (5): Cal, UW, WSU, ASU, Arizona
Away (5): UCLA, USC, Oregon, Utah, Colorado

The only match that still might get added is a home match vs. Pepperdine the same weekend as the Oregon match, since otherwise the Ducks would be the only scheduled match (and, well, Pepperdine says they're playing us that weekend). I'm eager to see that Pepperdine match get played, because a win would be a brobdingnagian boost to our ranking and a loss barely hurts us. We could use the schedule help, that's for sure. If the rest of the season plays out as expected, I figure we'll be the 2 seed in the Pac-12 tournament behind UCLA, with Cal as the 3, ASU as the 4, USC as the 5, and then some combination of the rest after that. If things play to seed (and we play Pepperdine), we'll finish the season with 13 more matches, or 18 in total, including seeking revenge over UCLA in the Pac-12 final. That's not too terrible as an overall number, but if seeding is based on the traditional computer model, we'll only have 3 matches with teams that would be really valuable wins: UCLA twice and Pepperdine. Cal twice, ASU, and USC (assuming USC settles in and finds its form) are another four good ones, but that's really only seven Top 25-caliber matches--how many of those do we actually win?

Sure would be nice to get Blake back.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-17-2021

ITA Rankings

New ITA rankings out today, and Stanford drops two spots to #26 (beating St. Mary's in your only match of the week is not a great resume-booster). 

Here's the Top 10, plus the other Pac-12 teams and teams on our schedule who are ranked:

1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Pepperdine
5. UCLA
6. Florida State
7. Northwestern
8. Georgia Tech
9. Duke
10. Ohio State
20. Cal
24. USC
25. Arizona State
26. Stanford
39. Washington State
42. Washington

Colorado is 3rd and Oregon is 5th in the "others receiving votes" for an equivalent to 53rd and 55th. 

Schedule Update

The schedule continues to be fleshed out on the fly here. Not only has the Pepperdine match been confirmed for Friday, April 2 (11:00am at Stanford), but we've added UCSB for a week from today, Wednesday, March 24 at 12:00pm (again, at Stanford). Here's what's left:

Friday, 3/19 at 1:30pm: vs. ASU
Saturday, 3/20 at Noon: vs. Arizona
Wednesday, 3/24 at Noon: vs. UCSB
Friday, 3/26 at 2:00pm: vs. Wazzu
Saturday, 3/27 at Noon: vs. UW
Friday, 4/2 at 11:00am: vs. Pepperdine
Sunday, 4/4 at 11:00am: at Oregon
Friday, 4/9 at 1:30pm: at UCLA
Saturday, 4/10 at Noon: at USC
Friday, 4/16 at 1:30pm: vs. Cal
4/23-4/26: Pac-12 Championships in San Diego

That makes for 15 regular-season matches, plus up to 3 in the Pac-12 tournament for a total of 18. That's six fewer than we had in the 2019 spring season, but that clearance to have events on campus was just a few weeks too late to let us get ITA Kick-Off Weekend (and thus Indoor Nationals) in, so that's not too bad. The difference, of course, is that our overall strength of schedule is significantly worse than it has been the last few years, with teams like Santa Clara, UC Davis, and St. Mary's (all three of which regularly feature on our schedule), but without marquee non-conference opponents like Texas, Vanderbilt, or the type of teams we'd get at Indoor Nationals like UNC, Georgia, or Michigan. Not only does it make it hard for our players to develop when they don't get those challenging, high-pressure matches, but it makes it hard for either the coaches or the ranking algorithm to get a sense of where Stanford ought to rank. We don't have any margin for error this year. Say we beat everyone on our schedule except for Pepperdine and UCLA (who we'll play in LA and then probably again in San Diego at Pac-12s). Do the coaches look at that resume and say it's the resume of a top 16 team? Not sure they do. 

I'll tell you this, though. The seeding committee will face a lot of pressure to seed Stanford fairly, because we'll be the "lower-ranked" team that nobody wants to face. In the national round of 16, the #1 seed should beat the #16 team handily, but if we're that #16 team because of covid-related scheduling issues out of the team's control? Well, if I'm UNC, I'm seething that what could be a national semi or championship match takes place in the Round of 16. The benefit of coaches being more involved here means that you might see some more jumps from the ITA rankings to the NCAA seeds to account for issues like that. 

It's a useful lens through which to view our NCAA seed chances, though. We have likely three matches against Top 5 teams this year: UCLA twice and Pepperdine. If we win all three or go 2-1, our seed will be in line with our preseason rank of #4. If we go 1-2, we're a top 10 team and we get to host in the postseason. If we go 0-3 but beat everyone else, our best wins will be over teams ranked in the high teens (at best), so what's the resume-based argument for being higher than the mid-teens ourselves? (The eye test is one thing, but what's the argument that we've earned a better seed this season?)

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-19-2021

Doubles on now, and we’re up a break on Court 3 (up 4-2), while we’re on serve on Courts 1 and 2, up 4-3 on both courts.
Gordon/Madurawe win 6-3 at 1, while Choy/Shin were up 5-2 on 3 but gave one of their breaks back, allowing Arbuthnott/Geller to clinch the doubles point with a 6-4 win, taking a deciding point on ASU’s serve to end it. 

Encouraging to see us take the doubles point against a decent doubles team!

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-19-2021

Stanford 1, Arizona State 0

1. Gordon tied 4-4
2. Arbuthnott leads 4-3
3. Geller leads 6-3, 0-0
4. Choy trails 2-5
5. Shin trails 3-4
6. Higuchi leads 6-0, 0-2

Tight in singles—gotta earn it.
Stanford 1, Arizona State 0

1. Gordon trails 4-6, 0-0
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 0-0
3. Geller leads 6-3, 2-0 
4. Choy trails 2-6, 0-1
5. Shin trails 3-6, 0-0
6. Higuchi leads 6-0, 0-4

Not super thrilled at how this is going, but I did say to expect some three-setters, so I just need to chill and be patient.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - oldalum - 03-19-2021

What's going on with Higuchi? Won the first 6 games, dropped the next 5 and lost the second set 6-1! Her opponent is dictating play and at the moment seems just as steady as Higuchi.

Arbuthnott and Geller are our only singles players ahead at the moment, with first-set wins. Need one more--where's it going to come from?
Gordon's already down a break in the second set

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-19-2021

Stanford 1, Arizona State 0

1. Gordon trails 4-6, 0-2
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 2-1
3. Geller leads 6-3, 4-2
4. Choy trails 2-6, 0-2
5. Shin trails 3-6, 1-1
6. Higuchi tied 6-0, 1-6, 0-0

I don’t like this.
Stanford 2, Arizona State 0

1. Gordon trails 4-6, 3-2
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 4-2
3. Geller wins 6-3, 6-2
4. Choy trails 2-6, 0-2
5. Shin trails 3-6, 4-1
6. Higuchi leads 6-0, 1-6, 2-0

I like this better.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - oldalum - 03-19-2021

yeah, now we're only losing one second set. When the going gets tough, the tough get . . . better

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-19-2021

Stanford 2, Arizona State 0

1. Gordon trails 4-6, 5-4 (big time break on deciding point to pull ahead in the second, but then she gave it right back, but got another one, and serving for the second set, she was broken again, sigh)
2. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 5-4 (she’ll serve for her match shortly)
4. Choy trails 2-6, 3-5
5. Shin trails 3-6, 4-4 (Shin has had lots of game/break points to pull away in this second set—this is pretty disappointing)
6. Higuchi tied 6-0, 1-6, 3-3 (trading breaks left and right, what a mess)
Stanford 3, Arizona State 1

1. Gordon leads 4-6, 6-4, 1-0
2. Arbuthnott wins 6-3, 7-5 (had the match on her serve at 5-4, but couldn’t finish, but she broke and took advantage of the second chance on a deciding point)
4. Choy loses 2-6, 4-6
5. Shin trails 3-6, 5-5
6. Higuchi leads 6-0, 1-6, 5-4 (more breaks, goodness gracious, but Emma can serve for the match now—would be a good time for a hold!)
Shin forces a third on Court 5, 7-5!

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - oldalum - 03-19-2021

Higuchi clinches on an ad point! That was close, but we win.
(I think we would have been good in at least one of the other third sets too)

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - oldalum - 03-20-2021

I'm curious CT what your take is on the current state of the team based on this match, which was a lot closer than the 4-1 score indicates. It is interesting that singles #2 and 3 were our strongest positions in this match, given that the loss of Lord and Lampl at those positions was our big loss from the previous championship team. Our depth did not assert itself as strongly as I would have thought; is it really there?

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-20-2021

(03-20-2021, 12:26 PM)oldalum Wrote:  I'm curious CT what your take is on the current state of the team based on this match, which was a lot closer than the 4-1 score indicates. It is interesting that singles #2 and 3 were our strongest positions in this match, given that the loss of Lord and Lampl at those positions was our big loss from the previous championship team. Our depth did not assert itself as strongly as I would have thought; is it really there?

Some of it is that ASU's Morlet is a freshman and a good player and she's tougher than most #4s we'll run into. Some of it might be that Choy wasn't super sharp. Not sure. But overall? I'm not sure my assessment is much different than it was last year--we've got a #1, a couple of #3s, and a bunch of #5/#6 types. We're a top 5 team, but a borderline one, and we're not a team I'd bet the farm on winning a championship. 

But that's an assessment of the team that involves having either Blake or Geller, but not both. And Blake is back in the lineup today while Geller rests. Terrific news! But let's circle back to that. 

Choy at 4 is a bit of a stretch. She's better than Higuchi, but not so much better that I see her as a future top-half-of-the-lineup player. She's going to get some hard hitters at 4 that overwhelm her. Shin--well, Shin has just never really progressed, and in fact seems to have regressed a bit since her freshman year. And the lack of consistency in who plays at 6 is both a positive (in that we have a handful of players who've gotten enough match experience to help out in the postseason if called upon) and a negative (in that whoever is playing 6 on a given day hasn't gotten as much experience as I'd like in overcoming adversity).

Arbuthnott is going to be overmatched against most good teams we play. She's not truly a #2, and I think we'd be set up better if she were dropped down a line--or even two. 

I'd like to see this lineup: (1) Gordon; (2) Blake; (3) Geller; (4) Arbuthnott; (5) Choy; and (6) a combination of Higuchi, Shin, Madurawe, and Houghton. I think that's our best 6. But as it happens, keeping Arbuthnott at 2 with our full-strength lineup means that our likelihood of winning the overall match increases a bit, as the probabilities of getting wins at 3 and 4 increase even as the likelihood of getting a win at 2 stays lower. But however it shakes out between Blake, Geller, and Arbuthnott, pushing Choy to 5 and Shin to 6 is where we'll see the biggest impact. 

My assessment of us as a top-5-ish-but-not-championship-caliber team is premised on last year's roster, and it didn't change with Geller swapped in for Blake this year. But with both? We're more comfortably top 5 and could absolutely make some noise at NCAAs.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - Spiny_Norman - 03-20-2021

Stanford takes the doubles point vs. Arizona. But the match is notable for the season debut of Angelica Blake. She is playing #3 singles as Geller gets a break. The rest of the singles lineup is unchanged.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - ColoradoTree - 03-20-2021

Stanford 1, Arizona 0

After a straightforward doubles point, here's how things shake out in singles so far:

1. Gordon trails Lukic, 3-4
2. Arbuthnott trails Wilkins, 3-4
3. Blake leads Zandberg, 4-3
4. Choy leads Amos, 6-0, 0-0
5. Shin leads Heynemans, 6-0, 1-0
6. Higuchi leads Iglupas, 5-2

Geller getting a rest and Blake slots into her spot in the lineup. Hopefully Geller is fine and it's just a way to get Blake a match without pushing Higuchi out of the lineup. Arizona's lineups is as expected, except for Lukic and Wilkins swapping the top two spots. This is how they lined up against Cal, and Lukic gave Giavara quite a push at #1, losing just 7-5, 7-6. Cal needed third sets on Courts 5 and 6 (shocking to see Anna Bright struggle at 6, when she used to dominate higher in the lineup).

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - magnus - 03-20-2021

We win 5-2.  Not sure where all the points came from as the link doesn't seem to have details anymore.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - terry - 03-20-2021

(03-20-2021, 03:13 PM)magnus Wrote:  We win 5-2.  Not sure where all the points came from as the link doesn't seem to have details anymore.

Stanford won the doubles. In singles, Stanford's winners were #3 Blake, #4 Choy, #5 Shin, and #6 Higuchi. All won in straight sets except Shin. #1 Gordon and #2 Arbuthnott lost in straight sets.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - magnus - 03-20-2021

What is Gordon's record in these team competitions?  As a casual observer, I feel like she's always eking out a tie or more often than not on the wrong end of the tally.  Am I just misremembering/missing data?  If not.  Are we happy for these results (since the team still seems to win) or should we expect or hope for more?

Just curious where to set the bar of expectations for her.

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - terry - 03-20-2021

The results vs. Arizona:

Doubles
1. Lukic/Iglupas vs. Gordon/Madurawe 5-4 unf.
2. No. 9 Blake/Arbuthnott def. Heynemans/Wilkins 6-4
3. No. 32 Choy/Higuchi def. Amos/Zandberg 6-2
Order of finish: 3, 2

Singles
1. Jelena Lukic def. No. 10 Michaela Gordon 6-4, 7-5
2. Kayla Wilkins def. No. 63 Emily Arbuthnott 6-3, 7-6(2)
3. No. 58 Angelica Blake def. Talya Zandberg 6-3, 6-1
4. Sara Choy def. Abby Amos 6-0, 6-1
5. No.114 Janice Shin def. Gitte Heynemans 6-0, 2-6, 6-3
6. Emma Higuchi def. Khim Iglupas 6-2, 6-1
Order of finish: 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5

RE: Women's Tennis: Arizona Schools - terry - 03-21-2021

(03-20-2021, 04:15 PM)magnus Wrote:  What is Gordon's record in these team competitions?  As a casual observer, I feel like she's always eking out a tie or more often than not on the wrong end of the tally.  Am I just misremembering/missing data?  If not.  Are we happy for these results (since the team still seems to win) or should we expect or hope for more?

Just curious where to set the bar of expectations for her.

This year, Gordon's record in dual matches is 4-1. She played in the #1 position in all of those matches.

Last year, her record was 4-3, all at #1.

In 2019, her record was 15-5, including 12-5 at #1 and 3-0 at #2.

In 2018, her record was 12-9, all at #1.

Her career totals: 35-18, including 32-18 at #1 and 3-0 at #2.