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WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - Baez87 - 03-31-2021

The AP's panel of 30 sportswriters voted on their choice for this season’s POY and COY today. Absent was pretty much anyone, player or coach, west of the Mississippi. No mention of the PAC-12. Not even any mention of the Cinderella Team of the Tournament personnel, IMHO, Arizona, or its high octane player, Aari McDonald, or a player noted for defense, or player noted for distributing the ball, or a coach for holding a team together under the most extreme of circumstances.
Is there any way to challenge what has become the norm in Women's Basketball?
Player: https://es.pn/3doAFLQ

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - 76lsjumb - 03-31-2021

Yeah. Win a National Championship or two...

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - Baez87 - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 03:48 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:  Yeah. Win a National Championship or two...
I agree, winning is the obvious way to get attention from the national sportswriters, but the issue is more complicated than that. Six players from six different teams were nominated for WBB Player of the Year. Women from six teams were nominated -- UCON, Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan, Texas, and Iowa. Obviously, UCON has won the national championship several times, and will naturally get the sportswriters attention, but the other five teams have not. That's where the disparity lies. Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated! That is not right.
To that observation, one could say, "Yeah. Move east of the Mississippi or closer..." ...but there must be more to work with here!
Overcoming bias is an uphill fight, but it still needs pointed out and fought.

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - Phogge - 03-31-2021

Not giving the Coach of the Year award to Tara is unforgivable considering the record and the trials that she and the girls went through.

And IMO the last good thing to happen to Maryland is the Battle of Antietam when Bobby Lee slunk back to Virginia.

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - bl82 - 03-31-2021

In a perfect world, we would beat UConn by 34 in the finals and...

Anna would hold Bueckers to 5 points on 2-19 shooting...and collect 4 charges from different players along the way
Cam would block 8 shots
Hanna would nail 5 treys
Ashten would nail another 4 treys -- all coming off the bench
Lexie would have 5 steals
Haley would swish a half dozen of this insane drive, stop and hit the fadeaway moves
at some point we would go full-court press and have 3 consecutive steals we convert for layups
Fran would dunk over Nelson-Ododa
Kiana would drill a three from just inside half court and tap Tara on the ass while getting back on defense
...and the last basket would be a putback by Agnes

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - WBB fan - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 06:05 PM)bl82 Wrote:  In a perfect world, we would beat UConn by 34 in the finals and...

Anna would hold Bueckers to 5 points on 2-19 shooting...and collect 4 charges from different players along the way
Cam would block 8 shots
Hanna would nail 5 treys
Ashten would nail another 4 treys -- all coming off the bench
Lexie would have 5 steals
Haley would swish a half dozen of this insane drive, stop and hit the fadeaway moves
at some point we would go full-court press and have 3 consecutive steals we convert for layups
Fran would dunk over Nelson-Ododa
Kiana would drill a three from just inside half court and tap Tara on the ass while getting back on defense
...and the last basket would be a putback by Agnes

Add a three by Jerome and Lacie and a steal by Jana

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - CTcard - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 05:31 PM)Baez87 Wrote:  Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated!

As far as I can tell, nobody was nominated. The ESPN article just lists those who received a vote.

Numbers
Player          Pts/gm    FG%   3PT%   FT%    Rb/gm    Asst/gm   Asst/TO
Bueckers       20.1      52.8     45.9     85.9     4.8           5.9        2.3
McDonald      20.3      41.4     33.3     77.9     5.4           4.3        1.3

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - 76lsjumb - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 08:17 PM)CTcard Wrote:  
(03-31-2021, 05:31 PM)Baez87 Wrote:  Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated!

As far as I can tell, nobody was nominated. The ESPN article just lists those who received a vote.

Numbers
Player          Pts/gm    FG%   3PT%   FT%    Rb/gm    Asst/gm   Asst/TO
Bueckers       20.1      52.8     45.9     85.9     4.8           5.9        2.3
McDonald      20.3      41.4     33.3     77.9     5.4           4.3        1.3

Yeah, I was a little surprised by the comment that McDonald’s numbers were better than Bueckers’ and I gather that isn’t really the case.

Based on what I’ve seen Bueckers is quite clearly the best all around player out there, without even factoring in that she is a freshman. If we manage to play UConn and are able to shut her down at all, without giving up the defense of everyone else, it will likely be one of the best defensive performances by Stanford in a very long time.

It may be that no one west of the Mississippi got the consideration they deserved, but in my view that’s a moot point since that consideration would necessarily have been for Second Best Player in the country.

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - PVTree - 03-31-2021

With Sabrina graduating, the NCAA needed a new "face" to keep the game top of mind. PB is a terrific player, and she will be a strong candidate for many future awards. I think there were other players more deserving of the award this year (Aari). I see this as a business decision by people interested in the business finances.

For reporters, especially from small media, if fans lose interest in the game, they may suffer cutbacks at their companies due to the lack of interest. 

The women's game only seems to have 2 or 3 "name" stars per year (many, lately have been from Yukon) known beyond the fan base or rabid WBB fans. Bueckers is the obvious player to have the best odds of being the new face for the next 3+ years.

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - Baez87 - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 08:17 PM)CTcard Wrote:  
(03-31-2021, 05:31 PM)Baez87 Wrote:  Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated!

As far as I can tell, nobody was nominated. The ESPN article just lists those who received a vote.

Numbers
Player          Pts/gm    FG%   3PT%   FT%    Rb/gm    Asst/gm   Asst/TO
Bueckers       20.1      52.8     45.9     85.9     4.8           5.9        2.3
McDonald      20.3      41.4     33.3     77.9     5.4           4.3        1.3
Thanks for providing the comparative data. Point taken, Aari only bettered Bueckers in a couple categories, but I wasn’t arguing for someone else to be chosen as POY.  I was making the point that the sportswriters were excluding the players in the western half of the country from consideration. I don’t have the comparative data. If someone were to complete your chart to include the other five candidates and then could show that no one in the west had competing numbers, then my assertion would be incorrect. It’s hard to imagine that that is true.

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - M T - 03-31-2021

(03-31-2021, 08:17 PM)CTcard Wrote:  
(03-31-2021, 05:31 PM)Baez87 Wrote:  Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated!

As far as I can tell, nobody was nominated. The ESPN article just lists those who received a vote.

Numbers
Player          Pts/gm    FG%   3PT%   FT%    Rb/gm    Asst/gm   Asst/TO
Bueckers       20.1      52.8     45.9     85.9     4.8           5.9        2.3
McDonald      20.3      41.4     33.3     77.9     5.4           4.3        1.3
Hmmm...  I guess in this version of basketball, there is only one end of the court.

RE: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - CTcard - 04-01-2021

(03-31-2021, 10:18 PM)M T Wrote:  
(03-31-2021, 08:17 PM)CTcard Wrote:  
(03-31-2021, 05:31 PM)Baez87 Wrote:  Aari McDonald from Arizona has better numbers that UCON's Buekers and didn't even get nominated!

As far as I can tell, nobody was nominated. The ESPN article just lists those who received a vote.

Numbers
Player          Pts/gm    FG%   3PT%   FT%    Rb/gm    Asst/gm   Asst/TO
Bueckers       20.1      52.8     45.9     85.9     4.8           5.9        2.3
McDonald      20.3      41.4     33.3     77.9     5.4           4.3        1.3
Hmmm...  I guess in this version of basketball, there is only one end of the court.

I made no such statement, simply responding to a claim about the numbers with the numbers.

There are not many numbers widely available with respect to defense. Those that are available are generally not considered very enlightening with respect to overall defensive play. But to be complete ...
Steals: McDonald 67, Bueckers 65
Blocks: McDonald 2,  Bueckers 11
Def Rbs: McDonald 111, Bueckers 122

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - martyup - 04-01-2021

Case closed.  Bueckers > McDonald

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - BostonCard - 04-01-2021

(04-01-2021, 01:28 PM)martyup Wrote:  Case closed.  Bueckers > McDonald

McDonald's stats were depressed by having been guarded by Wilson twice ;-)

Arizona had the 24th ranked strength of schedule according to Warren Nolan; Connecticut the 35th ranked schedule.

Do I think McDonald deserved the award ahead of Buekers?  No, but she deserved to have been in the conversation, and given heterogeneity in scheduling it is always going to be a challenge to try to line up stats and say "case closed".

BC

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - martyup - 04-01-2021

(04-01-2021, 01:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(04-01-2021, 01:28 PM)martyup Wrote:  Case closed.  Bueckers > McDonald

McDonald's stats were depressed by having been guarded by Wilson twice ;-)

Arizona had the 24th ranked strength of schedule according to Warren Nolan; Connecticut the 35th ranked schedule.

Do I think McDonald deserved the award ahead of Buekers?  No, but she deserved to have been in the conversation, and given heterogeneity in scheduling it is always going to be a challenge to try to line up stats and say "case closed".

BC

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RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - M T - 04-02-2021

Below are stats for all the players mentioned, plus Aari, Kiana, and Cameron.
I tried to avoid duplicating any data (in normal stats, Pts, FG%, 3FG% all duplicate data).
I collected Points, FG Misses, OR, DR, PF, A, TO, STL, BLK, and normalized them to 40 minutes. (Right half of the table).
I made the best values bold. Note the bottom line.

This doesn't account for the quality of the opponents (UConn won by an average of 30+ points. Buecker played 36 minutes on average!)

This is admittedly ad hoc.  I'd welcome better estimates.   If I had more stats (such as team's OR%, etc.), I could maybe do better.   But it is one rough way of measuring net points.

A possession is worth about 45% chance of making a 2PT shot.  About 0.9 points..
A point is a point.
FG misses cost you a possession about 80% of the time.  About -0.72 points.
An OR is worth 80% of an extra possession
A DR is worth 20% of an extra possession
A PF results in about 1.5FT whose value is 0.7pt each
A TO costs a possession.
A STL is worth a possession.
A BLK results in a change of possession about half the time.
An Assist is worth about 0.5 (that's a WAG).
A FTA represents about 2/3 of a foul on the other team, with a WAG of a foul on the other team being worth 0.5pts. (FTM is already in Points)

Value is the sum of all the components.

per40Min
NameTeamValueMinPtsFGMFGAORDRPFATOSTLBLKFTAPossessionPtsFGMissesORDRPFATOSTLBLKFTA
0.91-0.720.720.18-1.050.5-0.90.90.450.333factor
Paige BueckersUconn21.1100956321741113122301647065117822.37.70.524.841.196.502.782.580.443.09
Dana EvansLouisville17.2986602221514773521176438210224.411.90.282.962.114.752.601.540.084.14
Rhyne HowardKentucky21.183749717339059115639151611912223.810.42.825.503.014.352.442.920.915.83
Naz HillmanMichigan28.1743526197316106145552958141017528.36.45.717.812.961.563.120.750.549.42
Charli CollierTexas13.587538914433010021181156116399517.88.54.579.653.700.692.790.731.784.34
Caitlin ClarkIowa25.09077202385061714264193131331216431.811.80.756.262.828.515.781.460.537.23
Aari McDonaldAZ18.683150718444424111491078067211324.412.51.165.342.365.153.853.230.105.44
Kiana WilliamsStanford13.19864491674027583095444313818.29.50.282.351.223.851.781.740.041.54
Cam BrinkStanford20.95493021182046713380273817798522.06.34.889.695.831.972.771.245.766.19

Any one know why ESPN picked Collier as probable #1 in the draft? There's nothing that stands out that much. A weak class?

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - CTcard - 04-02-2021

I see I've created a monster.
My original point was only to be careful of statements about what the numbers really are.

The chart seems like a reasonable attempt to make an overall value statistic, particularly for efficiency. However, volume matters as well. A player who plays 40 minutes is more important/better than a player who plays 2 minutes per game regardless of how the per 40 minute stats work out. Efficiency also depends upon one's role. For example, who ends up taking the shot when the shot clock is winding down and no good look is available?

But the bigger issue is that the stats simply don't carry enough information to determine something like best player. It's a starting point, or a point, but in the end you have to watch and evaluate.

The Stanford entries in the chart are a good example. While Brink may be a key cog that got Stanford to its current level, I don't think she has been either a better player or more important player to Stanford than Williams. And I don't think it's close. Yet Brink comes out way ahead of Williams on this value scale. Maybe she is more efficient, but not better (at least not yet).

For McDonald versus Bueckers, I think McDonald's best argument is value to team. Bueckers makes a good UConn team better. It appears to me that McDonald makes an otherwise not particularly good Arizona team into a Final Four participant. Maybe that takes a better player.

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - martyup - 04-02-2021

Thanks for the stats MT.  Very thorough and extremely interesting.  

As we all have been saying, Cam would be great (maybe greater) if she could avoid fouls.  These stats bear that our.  I wonder by what percentage she would need to lower her fouls to surpass Hillman in this model?

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - BostonCard - 04-02-2021

(04-02-2021, 12:20 AM)M T Wrote:  Below are stats for all the players mentioned, plus Aari, Kiana, and Cameron.

I tried to avoid duplicating any data (in normal stats, Pts, FG%, 3FG% all duplicate data).

I collected Points, FG Misses, OR, DR, PF, A, TO, STL, BLK, and normalized them to 40 minutes. (Right half of the table).

I made the best values bold.  Note the bottom line.



This doesn't account for the quality of the opponents (UConn won by an average of 30+ points.  Buecker played 36 minutes on average!)



This is admittedly ad hoc.  I'd welcome better estimates.   If I had more stats (such as team's OR%, etc.), I could maybe do better.   But it is one rough way of measuring net points.



A possession is worth about 45% chance of making a 2PT shot.  About 0.9 points..

A point is a point.

FG misses cost you a possession about 80% of the time.  About -0.72 points.

An OR is worth 80% of an extra possession

A DR is worth 20% of an extra possession

A PF results in about 1.5FT whose value is 0.7pt each

A TO costs a possession.

A STL is worth a possession.

A BLK results in a change of possession about half the time.

An Assist is worth about 0.5 (that's a WAG).

A FTA represents about 2/3 of a foul on the other team, with a WAG of a foul on the other team being worth 0.5pts. (FTM is already in Points)



Value is the sum of all the components.


Any one know why ESPN picked Collier as probable #1 in the draft?  There's nothing that stands out that much.  A weak class?

Thanks MT, I think it is really appreciated.  I largely mirror CTCard's take and will note that no system is perfect.  I had a couple other small comments for your consideration:
A block is probably worth more than the 50% of the time it results in a change in possession.  For one, it has downstream effects  by causing the opponent to think twice the next time she goes up for a shot.  For another, most of the time a blocked shot recovered by the offense has not hit the rim; thus the shot clock will have less time left.  Which brings me to the other point, which CTCard touched on.  I would love to see the expected points broken down by how much time is left on the shot clock.  Early on the shot clock, a player who gets the ball has the luxury of turning down a shot if she is well-defended and letting the offense try again.  As the shot clock starts going down, she no doubt becomes aware of the fact that the number of future opportunities to take a shot are limited.  And as the shot clock is approaching zero, the shooter knows that even a well-defended off balance shot that has a greater than 0% chance of going in is better than a shot clock violation.  Likewise, towards the end of the game, when trailing, it is better to take a suboptimal shot early than waste time to try to get a marginally better shot.

Anyways, it is a good framework.

And I agree with CTCard's assessment on Bueckers versus McDonald.  Not only is there a question of relative value to the team, but also of the teams relative value to the player.  McDonald is much more likely to be double-teamed and attract the focus of the opponent's defensive effort than Bueckers (who still will attract focus, but for whom the opponent cannot afford to ignore her teammates).  Bueckers is much more likely to be set up with higher quality screens, with penetration that can kick the ball back out to a more open player, etc.  Buecker's assists are probably padded by the fact that the players she passes it to are more skilled and thus more likely to convert the basket, etc.

Or to quote an aphorism; if statistics are a lightpost, they are meant to be used more for illumination than for support.

BC

RE: WBB: AP names Player and Coach of the Year - mbdude - 04-02-2021

"Any one know why ESPN picked Collier as probable #1 in the draft?  There's nothing that stands out that much.  A weak class?"

everytime I watch her play I cannot imagine her being a #1 pick. Slow, not vey strong, disappears in big games