A 6-win team? - Printable Version
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A 6-win team? - BostonCard - 04-14-2021
ESPN has it's 2021 FPI projections, and Stanford comes in at #60, with an anticipated record of 6.0-6.1 and a 60% chance of hitting six wins. That strikes me as... optimistic?
Other teams of interest:
Notre Dame: 11
Mississippi State: 8 (just noting it because it seems like such a jump from 2020 for Leach)
Oregon: 17 (highest Pac-12 team)
USC: 26
ASU: 31
Kansas State: 44
Utah: 57
Washington: 59
UCLA: 62
Colorado: 71
Cal: 76
Oregon State: 85
Washington State: 90
Vanderbilt: 93
Arizona: 102
It looks like a really down year for the Pac-12, which I guess is why the program gives us a decent chance at 6 wins, especially since we have home games against the teams we most closely match up with (Utah, Washington, UCLA, Cal) in terms of FPI. We would presumably be favored against Vandy, WSU, OSU, underdogs against ND, Oregon, USC, and ASU, and probably KSU given that it is a "neutral" game in Texas. The remaining match-ups will make or break the season.
I can see anything between 2 and 8 wins in there, and if I had to guess, I would say 5-7 (despite playing at home against Utah, I think the Utes are underrated and we always struggle, and I likewise think Washington, UCLA and maybe Cal are underranked).
BC
RE: A 6-win team? - cardcrimson - 04-14-2021
Not sure if it's pandemic fatigue, but having tough time getting excited about sports at all (except youth sports). 6 and 6 seems to match my enthusiasm level well.
RE: A 6-win team? - JohnR34231 - 04-14-2021
Six wins is about what I would consider reasonable. Could be a little better, could be a little worse.
Hope springs eternal and if Tanner McKee turns out to be the second coming of Andrew Luck it could be considerably better.
RE: A 6-win team? - Spiny_Norman - 04-14-2021
Rookie center, rookie QB, unreliable defense? 6 wins would exceed my expectations.
RE: A 6-win team? - gailtate - 04-14-2021
Six wins assumes a clean bill of health for the entire roster, a stellar performance for a first-year QB and all cylinders firing on offense. PLUS an overachieving defense and good fortune at every turn. More realistic: 4-8. Stanford's elite status in football began and ended with the advent of Andrew Luck and the exit of Christian McCaffrey. A good run, yes, but a unique one in the modern history of Cardinal football. Stanford is back where it belongs. Deal with it.
RE: A 6-win team? - winflop - 04-14-2021
Six wins would be awesome. I'm expecting 3-4
RE: A 6-win team? - BobK - 04-14-2021
8-4. Get on the bandwagon
RE: A 6-win team? - Stanfordindians1again - 04-14-2021
We saw what the Brady effect...the QB is essential. We have a good one, but no matter how good you are it will take some time to adjust and for the game to slow down.
Plus we havent been dominant on the D Line for a bit.
6 or 7 games and a Bowl seems about right.
RE: A 6-win team? - Farm93 - 04-14-2021
The team went 4-2 while playing one home game and practicing in public parks and parking lots.
College position turnover is just part of the deal, and the QBs on the roster have lots of promise.
Stanford also gets the favorable odd year schedule, so 8-4. No problem.
ESPN's little FPI likely didn't capture the impact of SCC Health and the first game chaos from the COVID-19 protocol. The team would likely have been placed higher in the FPI if Stanford had 2020 logistics closer to the rest of the Pac.
RE: A 6-win team? - akiddoc - 04-14-2021
(04-14-2021, 08:12 PM)Farm93 Wrote: The team went 4-2 while playing one home game and practicing in public parks and parking lots.
College position turnover is just part of the deal, and the QBs on the roster have lots of promise.
Stanford also gets the favorable odd year schedule, so 8-4. No problem.
ESPN's little FPI likely didn't capture the impact of SCC Health and the first game chaos from the COVID-19 protocol. The team would likely have been placed higher in the FPI if Stanford had 2020 logistics closer to the rest of the Pac.
Position turnover is part of the game. Unfortunately, we just turned over virtually every decent player on the team.
RE: A 6-win team? - Mick - 04-15-2021
Nine wins. The team will be much better than expected.
RE: A 6-win team? - Phogge - 04-15-2021
In a crappy conference you never know. Four to seven Stanford wins and ASU wins it all.
RE: A 6-win team? - JustAnotherFan - 04-15-2021
(04-14-2021, 06:06 PM)gailtate Wrote: Six wins assumes a clean bill of health for the entire roster, a stellar performance for a first-year QB and all cylinders firing on offense. PLUS an overachieving defense and good fortune at every turn. More realistic: 4-8. Stanford's elite status in football began and ended with the advent of Andrew Luck and the exit of Christian McCaffrey. A good run, yes, but a unique one in the modern history of Cardinal football. Stanford is back where it belongs. Deal with it.
I wouldn't say we belong here. We belong where we were during the Luck-McCaffrey era.
RE: A 6-win team? - JohnR34231 - 04-15-2021
(04-15-2021, 10:02 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-14-2021, 06:06 PM)gailtate Wrote: Six wins assumes a clean bill of health for the entire roster, a stellar performance for a first-year QB and all cylinders firing on offense. PLUS an overachieving defense and good fortune at every turn. More realistic: 4-8. Stanford's elite status in football began and ended with the advent of Andrew Luck and the exit of Christian McCaffrey. A good run, yes, but a unique one in the modern history of Cardinal football. Stanford is back where it belongs. Deal with it.
I wouldn't say we belong here. We belong where we were during the Luck-McCaffrey era.
Yeah, I think there has been a little change of tune here. For a while it was we belonged in the 2010-2015 era and would be there if only we had a decent coach. Now it is we don't even belong there.
RE: A 6-win team? - BostonCard - 04-15-2021
I think it is odd that anyone says we "belong" anywhere. We can talk about what we can reasonably hope to accomplish with the academic limitations we face and the advantages and disadvantages we have in terms of recruitment, and what we consider an unacceptable outcome, but not team "belongs" anywhere.
BC
RE: A 6-win team? - Phogge - 04-15-2021
No excuses, academic or injury. If you are in D1 deal with it or drop down a notch or two. I am satisfied if they are in the hunt for a North title. Then maybe you play a perfect game in the championship. Top Ten? Not with this bunch.
RE: A 6-win team? - cardcrimson - 04-15-2021
(04-15-2021, 11:31 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I think it is odd that anyone says we "belong" anywhere. We can talk about what we can reasonably hope to accomplish with the academic limitations we face and the advantages and disadvantages we have in terms of recruitment, and what we consider an unacceptable outcome, but not team "belongs" anywhere.
BC
Palo Alto perhaps?
RE: A 6-win team? - gailtate - 04-15-2021
Somebody look it up. What's the overall winning percentage during the past 25 years? How about 50?
RE: A 6-win team? - BostonCard - 04-15-2021
Go for it:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/stanford/index.html
Record over the last 25 years is not bad, 172-129, a 57% winning percentage, or a typical record of just under 7-5.
BC
RE: A 6-win team? - Papa John - 04-15-2021
Ask and ye shall receive, gailtate (from sports-reference.com)!
Past 25 seasons: 120 wins, 93 losses, 0 ties; winning pct = 56.3
Past 50 seasons: 215 wins, 184 losses, 4 ties; winning pct = 53.8
I counted a tie as 1/2 win.
Might be more interesting to look at decades since 1920:
1920s: 30-10-4; 72.7%
1930s: 28-24-6; 53.4%
1940s (no football 1943-45): 26-21-1; 55.2%
1950s: 29-31-4; 48.4%
1960s: 21-33-2; 39.3%
1970s: 46-22-2; 67.1%
1980s: 30-47-2; 39.2%
1990s: 42-38-0; 52.5%
2000s: 33-51-0; 39.3%
2010s: 66-25-0; 72.5%
Maybe it's because my freshman year at Stanford was 1980, but I still consider this the golden age of Stanford football in spite of the disaster of 2019.