The CardBoard
Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forumdisplay.php?fid=4)
+--- Forum: The CARDboard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Thread: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament (/showthread.php?tid=21916)

Pages: 1 2


Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-03-2021

Well, for the first time, Stanford is not a host of the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament on the women's side. Similarly, it's the first time Stanford hasn't been ranked in the top 16 at the end of the regular season. But at least we are in the tournament, and our streak of playing in every NCAA tournament remains intact. 

Our Regional

It's a nightmare draw, as we end up as the #2 team at 5th overall seed Pepperdine. Travel indeed factors in, and it's costly. First up is UCSB, which we'll win, and then we'll have to beat Pepperdine on their home courts in order to make the final site. Goodness. I would've strongly preferred a cross-country trip to play, say, (11) Florida or (14) UVA. 

Luckily, we know we're good enough to beat Pepperdine, though we got them at home in that 4-3 heartbreaker of a loss.  

Analysis

That doesn't mean this is a bad team with no prospects for a tournament run. Heck, it took some late-season results to get this team in the top 16 (and we won the national title as a 15 seed not too long ago). We're not that far off from that. But the limited schedule this year really knocked us for a loop. In a normal year, I think this team would have improved a little more over the course of the year, they would've had a couple more respectable non-conference wins, and we would've been ranked like 10-12, something like that. I think that's about how good this team is. But with the schedule they had, they didn't show it, and that's a shame. And the result is that we not only have to go on the road to start, we have to go on the road to the 5th national seed. 

More to come, including dates/times and live video/scoring.

Elsewhere in the conference:

* UCLA is the 4th national seed, hosting a regional with Grand Canyon, Texas Tech, and San Diego
* Cal is the 16th national seed, hosting a regional with San Jose State, Kentucky, and Syracuse
* USC is in the Florida regional, playing Oklahoma first. They've got a real shot at advancing.
* ASU is in the Texas regional, playing Mississippi State first. I think they win the first match, but Texas in Austin is just too tough. 

And that's it. Five NCAA teams. UW, WSU, and OU all would've been in the dance if they'd had a longer schedule. Sigh.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-03-2021

Thanks ColoradoTree; I always appreciate your in-depth analysis.

What's the potential ceiling on this year's team? Playing the 5th overall seed on their courts is very tough, but do we have the talent to go on a (seemingly improbable) run and take home the title?

Having said that, what's your prediction? It's one thing to have the potential; it's another to be playing well at the right time and playing the right opponents. Do you think we win our 1st rd match and lose to Pepperdine?


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BostonCard - 05-03-2021

I think the team might be able to make it out of Pepperdine, but it would be an upset.

Conventional wisdom is that UNC is head and shoulders above everyone else, and even if we had been more consistent during the season, I don't think we would have been expected to beat the Tar Heels.

Aside from UNC, we had trouble with UCLA, and I think it would be a major upset to get past that.  I'm not sure how we stack up against other top teams (Texas, Georgia) but I would think beating either of those would be a major upset.

Making it out of the regional would be a real triumph this year.

BC


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-04-2021

Yeah, that's about right. We're close to Pepperdine's level, but with the match on their courts, us winning would be surprising but not shocking. 

Remember that we only lost to them 4-3 in a match where Sara Choy was just a couple points away from winning, so it's certainly within reach.

But BC is right--this is UNC's year. If anyone else wins, I'll be shocked. Last year was when it all came together for that golden class of theirs, and now that's been delayed to this year. 

Of course, weird things can happen. If you look at UTR, we're a top 10 team, and the nature of team tennis can lead to all kinds of wonky results. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, and especially if we get past Pepperdine, I like our chances to get past (likely) LSU in the third round, but then we'd be in line to play UCLA in the quarters. On a good day, we can beat UCLA, but it's an uphill battle. Even if we got past them, it would be UNC in the semis. I'll be disappointed if we lose to Pepperdine, because I know we're right at their level, and it's disappointing when we don't beat teams we can beat. 

If we beat Pepperdine, then this is a successful year, full stop. If we win another round, even better. If we beat UCLA in the quarters but lose to UNC in the semis, pop some champagne, folks.

We play against UCSB on Friday at 10:00am, and live scoring and video is at this link: https://pepperdinewaves.com/sports/2018/8/7/playsight.aspx

Assuming we win (we beat UCSB 7-0 earlier this year), the Pepperdine match would be Saturday at 1:00pm.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-04-2021

Oh, and our singles lineup for NCAAs has been submitted, so this will be the order, absent injuries:

1. Michaela Gordon
2. Angelica Blake
3. Emily Arbuthnott
4. Ana Geller
5. Sara Choy
6. Emma Higuchi
--
7. India Houghton
8. Niluka Madurawe
9. Janice Shin

So, it'll be Houghton at 6 if there's one injury. We've very likely seen the last of Janice Shin in a Cardinal uniform.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-04-2021

Thanks all for the analysis.

Any surprises with the lineup above?


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-04-2021

(05-04-2021, 11:10 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote:  Thanks all for the analysis.

Any surprises with the lineup above?

On one hand, no, this is the lineup we've been rolling with, so it's not a surprise. 

On the other, Janice Shin finished each of her first three seasons ranked in the top 100 in the country, made the NCAA All-Tournament Team at #5 singles her freshman and sophomore seasons, has also played at #3 and #4 singles, and now she's sitting as our #9 player. Now, that's not a surprise based on how the past two seasons have gone, but it's still jarring to see her all the way at the end of the line.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - oldalum - 05-04-2021

I don't know if it was mentioned elsewhere, but Emily Arbuthnott has been named the Pac-12 Women's Tennis Scholar-Athlete of the Year. Congrats to her! She is majoring in economics and has a GPA of 4.16 which is impressive.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-05-2021

(05-04-2021, 09:31 PM)oldalum Wrote:  I don't know if it was mentioned elsewhere, but Emily Arbuthnott has been named the Pac-12 Women's Tennis Scholar-Athlete of the Year. Congrats to her! She is majoring in economics and has a GPA of 4.16 which is impressive.

She graduated last year, so technically, this should be her first year of her MS&E master's program. I know that was a big factor in her returning for the extra year this year.

(Her GPA has pretty much been that high her whole time at Stanford, though. She's special.)

The NCAA singles and doubles tournaments have been picked, and contrary to the team selections (which were basically just the ITA computer rankings for the at-large teams), there have been more considerations made for covid and players who may be ranked lower than expected at this point in the season. Namely, Michaela Gordon is in as an at-large selection, and she would've been very much on the bubble (and I think just on the wrong side of it) based on computer rankings. Also, Angelica Blake is the #3 alternate, so to the extent any selected players bow out due to injury in the next few days, she may make the field as well. (There's a weird quirk in the rule due to covid travel, so if someone gets injured right before the singles tournament, alternates can't travel to the championship site, so they'll likely go with the highest-ranked players who are already on site for the doubles tournament to fill slots at that point.)

But in a total shock, Gordon/Madurawe are in the doubles tournament as well, something that the rankings certainly don't warrant (and I thought their play didn't warrant, either). 

Here are the singles/doubles selections from the Pac-12:

Singles

Salma Ewing, USC
Abigail Forbes, UCLA
Haley Giavara, Cal
Michaela Gordon, Stanford
Jada Hart, UCLA
Ilze Hattingh, ASU
Janice Tjen, Oregon
Vanessa Wong, UW

Forbes is the only seeded Pac-12 player, and she's the 7. 

Alternates: Eryn Cayetano, USC (2nd), Angelica Blake, Stanford (3rd)

Doubles

Bolton/Hart, UCLA
Giavara/Ivanov, Cal
Gordon/Madurawe, Stanford

That's right, just one doubles pair from UCLA, arguably the best doubles-playing team in the country, and Forbes/Hart aren't even seeded. That's bonkers, and the Bruins are probably pretty upset about that, and rightfully so. And that's against the backdrop of there being two pairs from UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, and UVA. I don't normally root for the Bruins to win national titles, given our rivalry with them there, but these don't count in those totals, so if Gordon/Madurawe can't win, I hope Forbes/Hart do to rub it in the faces of the committee that so clearly fawns over any team in the ACC.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

15 minutes until Stanford takes on UCSB in its NCAA opener from Malibu! 

Here's how to watch: https://pepperdinewaves.com/sports/2018/8/7/playsight.aspx


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BobK - 05-07-2021

Stanford wins the doubles. 2-0


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

As a reminder, this match should not be close. Stanford won the regular season matchup 7-0. In that matchup, we got the following scores:

1. Gordon d. Volodko, 6-1, 6-0
2. Arbuthnott d. Kiss, 6-4, 6-1
3. Blake d. Khatamova, 6-3, 6-4
4. Shin d. Sentenac 6-3, 0-6, 1-0 (10-8)
5. Madurawe d. Reuter 6-3, 4-3 (ret.)
6. Higuchi d. Gonzalez Balbe 6-0, 6-2

Obviously a little bit of lineup adjustment since then, but here are the current matchups and scores:

Stanford 1, UCSB 0

1. Gordon leads Volodko, 3-1
2. Blake leads Kiss, 3-1
3. Arbuthnott tied with Khatamova, 2-2
4. Geller leads Sentenac, 3-1
5. Choy leads Reuter, 3-1
6. Higuchi leads Gonzalez Balbe, 4-0

Only two repeat matchups, at 1 and 6, but that doesn't change the overall projection here, which is a 4-0 Stanford win.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

Stanford 1, UCSB 0

1. Gordon leads 6-3, 1-0
2. Blake tied 6-6 (this after being up 5-4, 40-0, so let's hope she turns on the jets now)
3. Arbuthnott trails 3-6, 0-0
4. Geller leads 6-2, 3-1
5. Choy trails 4-6, 0-0
6. Higuchi leads 6-0, 5-0

Come on, Angelica, Emily, and Sara! Jeez.... I get that it's NCAAs and there are going to be nerves, and you're also going to get UCSB playing as aggressively as possible because they know they have nothing to lose, but still. You put away the teams that ought to be put away. (I have to remind myself this is Blake's first NCAA match.)

First sets in order: Higuchi, Geller, Gordon. So 4-0 still seems likely. Higuchi will get us to 2-0 before long, and you know Choy and Arbuthnott will fight back in their second sets, so Geller and Gordon should land the plane before UCSB would be in position to score a point.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BobK - 05-07-2021

Higuchi wins 6-0 6-0 so it’s now 2-0
But as Colorado Tree points out much closer than expected


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-07-2021

Geller wins 6-2, 6-1, so we are up 3-0 now


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

Arbuthnott’s form this year has been bewildering, and today is no exception. Down 3-6, 1-3 to a player she should blow out.

But it’s 3-0 after Geller adds a 6-2, 6-1 win to Higuchi’s double bagel.

1. Gordon leads 6-3, 3-2 (on serve)
2. Blake leads 7-6, 1-0
3. Arbuthnott trails 3-6, 1-3
5. Choy trails 4-6, 3-1

Stanford 3, UCSB 0

1. Gordon leads 6-3, 5-3 
2. Blake leads 7-6, 2-2
3. Arbuthnott trails 3-6, 4-3 (really nice job to win four straight after going down 0-3)
5. Choy tied 4-6, 6-3, 0-0 

Gordon serving for the match now!


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - oldalum - 05-07-2021

Choy won the second set, and Arbuthnott evened things up in her second set.
And then Gordon won


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

And that's it! Stanford wins 4-0 behind doubles, dominating wins from Higuchi and Geller, and a good, solid win from Gordon on Court 1, 6-3, 6-3. 

When play was suspended:

2. Blake led 7-6, 3-2 (on serve, with Kiss up 40-15 in that game)
3. Arbuthnott trailed 3-6, 4-4 (down 0-30 on Khatamova's serve)
5. Choy was serving to start the third set and was up 30-15.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Lorcan - 05-07-2021

Interesting results elsewhere so far, with the SEC doing poorly. 

#29 Old Dominion bt. #33 Arkansas 4-2
#36 Iowa State bt. 24 South Carolina
UNR North Florida bt #25 Ole Miss 4-3
#26 Kentucky barely survived #42 Syracuse 4-3. 
#31 Arizona State trounced #38 Mississippi State

The SEC didn’t deserve to have as many teams as it did at the expense of another team from the PAC.


RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

(05-07-2021, 12:55 PM)Lorcan Wrote:  Interesting results elsewhere so far, with the SEC doing poorly. 

#29 Old Dominion bt. #33 Arkansas 4-2
#36 Iowa State bt. 24 South Carolina
UNR North Florida bt #25 Ole Miss 4-3
#26 Kentucky barely survived #42 Syracuse 4-3. 
#31 Arizona State trounced #38 Mississippi State

The SEC didn’t deserve to have as many teams as it did at the expense of another team from the PAC.

Amen, Lorcan. And yet, we see this every year, because those teams get so much rankings credit for beating up on each other, while the strength of schedule in the Pac-12 is markedly worse. Some of this is athletic department budget at our Pac-12 sister schools, but we should have a Pac-12/SEC challenge every year. The weekend after Kickoff Weekend and before Indoor Nationals, you have 4 teams (2 from each conference) at each site. 

The problem is that the SEC has no incentive to do that--for them, the system works just fine as it is. Why would a school like Kentucky schedule a mid-tier or lesser Pac-12 program that could actually beat it and harm its rankings, when the status quo is getting it into the tournament? So maybe it's the Big Ten that's interested in that deal, or it's just a school by school thing where, say, WSU and Oregon go to Knoxville for a weekend where they each play Tennessee and Ole Miss or some such. Some of the scheduling had started to get a little bit better before covid, but it's still not good enough. 

#35 USC beat #22 Oklahoma 4-3, too. With UCLA rolling as expected, that's 4-0 so far for the Pac-12 in the first round, with Cal certain to make it 5-0 over San Jose State.