NCAA Rowing Championships - Printable Version

NCAA Rowing Championships - Printable Version

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NCAA Rowing Championships - Canalejas - 05-29-2021

It looks like Stanford advanced all 3 boats to tomorrow's grand finals.

I Eights
II Eights
Fours

But so did Washington, Texas, Virginia, and Michigan.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-29-2021

Sunday's livestreaming video link: https://www.ncaa.com/event/4100

Relevant races (EST):
10am - Varsity four grand final
10:24am - Second varsity eight grand final
10:48am - Varsity eight grand final

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-29-2021

At the start of this season, no one really knew what was going to happen with covid, last year having all the racing canceled, and the natural attrition of seniors and incoming freshmen (would some defer for a year to avoid zoom school?). As it turns out, the Stanford women announced that they were back in a big way with their dual meet defeat of Cal and with their strong performance at Pac-12s, finishing second to Washington in most events except for the varsity four, which won the event. Interestingly enough, there were clear dropoffs in talent or finish time across the major rowing power conferences, but because of the way selections were done, some programs who had poor finishes in their conference championships were still selected for the championship regatta.

Stanford was not one of those; in fact, Stanford was probably one of the first few at-large selections after the automatic qualifiers (conference champions) were sorted out.

With the heats and semifinals finished, Stanford has indeed asserted themselves as contenders for the NCAA crown. Coming into the regatta, Stanford was seeded third in the varsity eight, fourth in the second varsity eight, and first in the varsity four. The varsity eight has upended the script by winning their heat (expected) and winning their semifinal over Washington (unexpected). Should Stanford be confident or worried? I'm generally of the opinion that you should keep your powder dry if you can and save your legs for the final. A couple of years ago, there were some barnburner semifinals where multiple crews were in contention for that last third-place, grand final qualifying spot. In the end, less then two seconds separated all the crews around that spot, and the crews who were involved all had lackluster results in their respective finals the next day. At least, that's my dusty recollection...

So I'm not sure if there's much to be gained from having chased down Washington in a semifinal where both Stanford and Washington were assured of advancing anyway. Yaz Farooq, the current Washington and former Stanford championship coach, surely is not losing sleep over this. The conditions at Benderson Park are pretty fair across lanes, so lane assignment isn't anything I'd worry about. I just hope Stanford has enough in their legs to win tomorrow. (Having said that, knowing that you're *capable* of beating a heretofore unbeaten defending national champion crew is great psychological fodder when your coxswain is calling for more speed tomorrow and you don't know if you have it in you to give -- winning does have its advantages.)

Anyway, in the other semifinal, Texas had solid wins over Michigan and Rutgers, who also advanced. Rutgers was a solid length up over Ohio State for that third qualifying spot, denying the Buckeyes the pleasure of having all three of their boats in their respective grand finals.

In the second varsity eights event, Stanford won their heat as expected and took second in their heat (somewhat unexpected) behind Texas but over Virginia, which had been seeded higher than Stanford coming into the weekend. This continued the theme of Virginia and the ACC recording not-great results all Friday morning. Stanford was merely 1.7 sec back of Texas in the semifinal however, and this might put them within striking distance of a win tomorrow.

In the varsity four event, Stanford won this event over Washington at the Pac-12s by 12 seconds (abnormally large margin). This weekend saw the top-ranked four in the nation win their heat and semifinal, with the semifinal win being a five-second win over second-place Washington (much more reasonable). I think Stanford is the favorite to win this event tomorrow, but because of the way the overall team points are assigned, the other event finishes are going to matter much more. Still, these points can matter if the other programs stumble hard.

It is rather abnormal to have five of your six grand final competitors all have entries in all three boat classes. Notably, we're missing full Ivy League participation this year, and the lack of race experience has probably hurt Brown and Princeton, the two Ivy programs who were selected for the championship regatta. That just means that we're not sure who's going to win it all, as five teams have that chance (okay, probably only three teams: Texas, Washington, and Stanford -- Michigan and Virginia advanced despite recording losses to those three teams).

I would love to see Stanford win it all, but I dare not make such a trite wish. It's very difficult to predict things this year because Texas and Washington have been so strong and yet have never faced each other in any race (not even this weekend). But because Stanford beat Washington in the semifinal, let's say that optimistically, I could see Stanford winning the varsity eight event, taking second in the 2V behind Washington, and winning the four. That's a guaranteed NCAA championship. If I were to make a very median/mediocre prediction, it would be third place for both eights and victory in the four, which reflects the seeding and additional information that the second varsity eight is definitely faster than Virginia. If I may be so impetuous, there does seem to be a dropoff after the top three programs (Stanford, Texas, and Washington). And if Texas finds themselves down after the first 500m, do they know how to row from behind? It's very different rowing with a lead than rowing from behind. Stanford is the least proven of the three programs by the most recent NCAA finish, but given the result of the varsity eight semifinal, there definitely more upside than I had earlier thought.

Dare we hope that the varsity eight's semifinal victory portends greater things to come? Tune in to the livestream tomorrow for a 6-7 minute race and find out!

Heat video (day 1 morning session): https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-05-28/di-dii-diii-rowing-2021-day-one-morning-session-full-replay
Stanford 1V - 1:06:05
Stanford 2V - 2:03:10
Stanford V4 - 2:14:51 (immediately following the Stanford 2V race!)

Stanford didn't have to row in the afternoon session (the repechages) because they qualified directly to the semifinals from the heats. However, if you're curious about those races, the link is here: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-05-28/di-diii-rowing-2021-day-one-afternoon-session-full-replay

Semifinal video: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-05-29/di-dii-diii-rowing-2021-day-two-full-replay
Stanford 1V - 00:31:00.
Stanford 2V - 1:18:46.
Stanford V4 - 1:50:59.

All rowing videos: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-30-2021

Updated sched:
Second varsity - 10:28am
First varsity - 10:44am

The grand final for the D1 fours just finished. Stanford finished second behind UW by about four seats (1.08 sec) unfortunately. Stanford beat UW by 12 sec at Pac-12s and beat UW by 5 sec yesterday...but today UW flipped the script and had a strong middle thousand meters where they rowed more efficiently and faster for the same stroke rate. Stanford responded by pushing their stroke rate up, but they did so inefficiently, neutralizing the advantage of a faster stroke rate. In the end, Stanford sprinted and made up about five feet, but it wasn't enough. Will my predictions come to naught? Who knows...

This is the first time in years...maybe a decade-plus...where California doesn't have a single boat in any grand final.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Canalejas - 05-30-2021

In the II Eights, Stanford got caught at the end by UW. Darn.

[Image: i1h1pcn.png]

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-30-2021

Second varsity eights: That was rough. Stanford burned hard and led by a full length for most of the race, but Washington charged really, really impressively in the last 700 meters to win by seven seats (which is about 80% of a length). This is like UW trailing by 10 pts in basketball until maybe the last 5 min of a game...and then winning by 8 pts. This is gonna sting in those Stanford rowers' memories, but many of them are freshmen, so this is at least valuable experience for them.

Let's be honest, in rowing, it's rather difficult to give up a length's lead like that in such short time.

The varsity eight event will decide the championship.

They're clearing the venue because of the possibility of lightning, and the varsity eight grand final will be delayed for who knows how long. Normally a lightning delay means pausing racing until it's been 30 min since the last strike within a 10 mile radius (that's one convention, I'm sure there are others).

On the positive side, Stanford's varsity eight will know the results of the other two races and can react accordingly. It's very likely that the second varsity eight didn't know the result of the fours race. This next one's for all the marbles.

But can the crews keep their legs loose/fresh and manage their nerves? A lot of rowers tend to take caffeine right before a race for a slight boost. That effect will have worn off by the time racing resumes (and yes, there is only one more race left). I just want that varsity eight to know that they can't hang their catches because that's sort of what hurt the other two Stanford boats.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Canalejas - 05-30-2021

Here was the finish in the Fours:

[Image: PPUj38F.png]

Uh oh, weather delay.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Jamesy - 05-30-2021

If Stanford wins the 1v8, they're guaranteed at least a tie for the championship (and I believe the tiebreaker is the 1v8 so they'd be the national champions as a team).

Stanford rowing Twitter has been silent all morning but per UW, race will start at 9:40 AM PT. https://twitter.com/uw_rowing/status/1399031628945633285?s=21

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-30-2021

Last race at 12:40pm ET. They're using the 40 min after last lightning strike within 10 mile rule lol. Glad I remember that standard.

If I remember the points table right (and I haven't looked at it in a year and a half), Stanford would win the title with a 1V victory by tiebreaker of varsity eight finish. Anything else and UW wins yet another championship plus the sweep (argh).

Looks like Jamesy beat me to it.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Canalejas - 05-30-2021

The webcast also just announced a 9:40 PT race start

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Jamesy - 05-30-2021

(05-30-2021, 09:05 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Last race at 12:40pm ET. They're using the 40 min after last lightning strike within 10 mile rule lol. Glad I remember that standard.

If I remember the points table right (and I haven't looked at it in a year and a half), Stanford would win the title with a 1V victory by tiebreaker of varsity eight finish. Anything else and UW wins yet another championship plus the sweep (argh).

Looks like Jamesy beat me to it.

UW posted a short leader board and points update. https://twitter.com/uw_rowing/status/1399013113345806340?s=21

There are theoretical ways that we could win the overall title without winning the 1v8. Off top of my head, if we finish 2nd and team other than UW or Texas finishes 1st we'd be the champions.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-30-2021

Unless Michigan and Virginia have been sandbagging every race, the odds of either of them winning the V8 are astronomically low. It's not convention to hold back a lot over the course of a championship regatta, although I think it would confer and advantage. Plus, the results of the V4 and 2V grand finals indicate that Michigan and Virginia don't have the team speed that usually indicates a fast varsity eight.

Stanford has to row efficiently and powerfully. I feel like the efficiency wasn't there earlier this morning.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Jamesy - 05-30-2021

Stanford had the early lead but faded to second behind Texas. Texas wins it all by virtue of the tiebreaker. Finishing 2nd in the V4 cost us the program title.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - Canalejas - 05-30-2021

[Image: ecvhBbq.png]

Darn, so close.

RE: NCAA Rowing Championships - fullmetal - 05-30-2021

That one hurt. As per script, Stanford took a steady start and then burned hard in the middle thousand with a higher stroke rate. The problem with that is that you don't have as much gas left in the tank to fight off other crews' sprints, and just as with the V4 and 2V events, another boat decided to turn the screws in the last 500m of the race and pass Stanford. This time though, it was Texas rather than Washington, who struck from half a length down and finished six seats up. Washington was sitting down a length on the Texas-Stanford deathmatch through most of the race, and they weren't able to keep pace with either Texas or Stanford coming to the finish line.

It is a crazy, courageous tactic to go out hard and row from ahead knowing that you're burning your fuse early. It hurts every part of your body a lot. And it almost worked. Stanford took second place in all three events with margins of defeat ranging from about 1-1.5 sec. If any one of those second-place finishes had been a win, the championship would have been Stanford's. But it was not to be today, and while Stanford did best Washington in the 1V, Texas lived up to their pre-regatta #1 seed and took home the championship. This is their first national championship in women's rowing, and it is Texas head coach Dave O'Neill's first championship with Texas...but not his first championship ever, as he won a few while coaching California for...over a decade? He joins former Stanford head coach Yaz Farooq (current Washington head coach) as the only two women's rowing head coaches to win championships with at least two different programs.

The second-place finish is Stanford head coach Derek Byrnes's best NCAA finish since taking over the program in 2017 and also the best finish since a 2011 second-place program finish. Given the amount of youth in the three NCAA lineups, the future is bright for Stanford (though the same is actually true of Texas--they also have a lot of freshmen in their NCAA lineups). With the extra covid eligibility, it is impossible to predict attrition for any program, but I would assume Stanford rowers would be more inclined to move on with their lives in natural progression. (Texas actually has a redshirt senior and a graduate student rowing in their 1V...)

I'm surrounded by Texas fans in my personal life, so I'll be sure to give them heartfelt congratulations on finally ascending the summit (I knew the program in its down years). But I've always been Stanford-first, and right now on this forum for a few minutes more, I'll think of what could have been. It was a great season that came up just 1-1.5 sec short.